The Beginning of The End 0f The World, Including Japan

[Rob Pongi]

Life After The Oil Crash

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global "Peak Oil" and related geo-political events.

So who are these nay-sayers who claim the sky is falling? Conspiracy fanatics? Apocalypse Bible prophesy readers? To the contrary, they are some of the most respected, highest paid geologists and experts in the world. And this is what's so scary.

The situation is so dire that even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question."

Keep Chugging!

[Alcazar]

Thanks for that Pongi-San, that was one of the most interesting things I have read recently-it was a big article, but I read the whole piece.

If things do turn out like the article says, and I think that aspects of it will eventuate even if not related to global energy concerns, I think that the generation that you belong to - the 'baby-boomers' - experienced the best period of history ever offered to a single generation.

[AssKissinger]

I don't know if I should be more worried that this guy is probably right or that I don't really give a shit if he is. I already know I'm gonna die one way or another. Who gives a fuck if the world human population shrinks 90 or even a 100%? And no matter how much I conserve or waste personally ain't gonna make a damn bit a difference in the grand scheme just like I can vote for Bush or Kerry or write on Hitler and it doesn't make a damn bit a difference. It won't change the outcome one iota no matter what I do. Of course oil is gonna run out. We use it for everything and it's a non-renewable resource. Hell, we're even depleting the renewable resources like fish and timber by consuming at a higher rate than can be replinished. So I stop eating yakiniku? Ha! The world (as we know it) won't last a single second longer so why should I? If we all work together maybe things could change. Well, if everyone else works together and I just continue to be the same things would change and I can still live large. How 'bout them apples. I don't care if we're fucked! By the way this thread belongs in Beyond Fucked if any ever did.

[Neo-Rio]

I wonder if these events can tie in with this so-called "internet hoax"

(Don't click the link if you don't want to scare yourself even more)

http://johntitor.strategicbrains.com/

[Alcazar]

I think Rob's article actually contained a lot of truth to it-all the things it cited are true, including the reference to research on gene specific bio-weapons . I don't think the lack of affordable oil means there will be a 'crunch' where the West and the developed world such as Japan just collapses-we will be able to adapt with some discomfort, while the undeveloped world will get mo' fucked if they are not already at a certain level of development where they have a chance of adapting.

In this situation we will need greater barriers to keep their instability from swamping us too. But of course we already know their problems are increasing for many other reasons, let alone a drying up of cheap oil-that's the last of their problems. There are just too many people now to deal with in many parts of the 3rd world, I have no hope that they can get out of their deeply ingrained problems at this time by themselves.

http://www.nwc.navy.mil/newrulesets/...gonsNewMap.htm



The reliance on oil and the need to seek other fuel sources such as natural gas got me thinking about some recent events-The Chinese government came to Australia last year to secure the supply of $35bn of LNG to the Chinese market. The US is talking about a $50bn deal now. This is all for powerplants, damn.

(A few years ago I didn't know that the US actually burns oil for their powerplants as well as cars, I thought it was all dams, nuclear and coal. The Northern Hemisphere must use so much power for their heating, something that you don't automatically realise in places like Australia. I mean in places like Japan and the US, you can have hot summers with air con running, and cold winters burning up heating power too).

Power use in the West used to be going down a couple of decades ago due to more energy efficiency and people deliberately conserving power use after the splurge of the 1950s, 60s and 70s. Then in the mid-nineties, power use in our societies has gone right up again with the explosion in new electronic goods for use in the home and office.

Neo-Rio, I read that article when it was on here a few months ago, and it was fun to read if you just treat it like a little bit of escapism, I enjoyed reading it.

[ibiza]

We're all gonna die

[Caustic Saint]

Michael Moore had a chapter on this same thing in "Dude, Where's My Country." (Chapter 3 - Oil's Well that Ends Well)

Most people think of oil only in terms of gasoline, and forget about things like electricity, plastics and fertilizers. The reliance on oil in food production is where it's going to have the largest unexpected impact.

I fully expect to see this start happening in my lifetime. It ain't gonna be pretty.

[AssKissinger]

I'm not from the future but I predict that over the next ten years China is gonna start getting agro in Africa. There's no way black Africans are gonna be able to hang on to all those resources with AIDS being as big as it is over there. Botswana for example, is over 30% now. I doubt the rest of the world and especially super huge and over-populated China, is gonna sit around letting all those resorces go untapped just because the Africans themselves can't get their shit together enough to exploit them themsleves. I think that the way Bush sent troops into Iraq without UN permission will set the precedent that China is gonna start using. They're gonna say it's peace keeping or anti-terror or whatever the excuse but really they're gonna be setting up shop and sucking out the resources.

[Big Booger]

I think that the secondary energy resources will definitely have to play a key role in the switch from oil.

I think the alternatives he listed will have to increase and combined can take over oil as our dominant energy resource:

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas currently supplies 20% of global energy supply. Gas itself will start running out from 2020 on. Demand for natural gas in North America is already outstripping supply, especially as power utilities take the remaining gas to generate electricity. Gas is not suited for existing jet aircraft, ships, vehicles, and equipment for agriculture and other products. Conversion consumes large amounts of energy as well as money. Natural gas also does not provide the huge array of chemical by-products that we depend on oil for.

Hydro-Electric:

Hydro-Electric power currently accounts for 2.3% of global energy supply, compared with the 40% provided by oil. It is unsuitable for aircrafts and the present 800 million existing vehicles.

Solar

Solar power accounts for .006% of global energy supply. Energy varies constantly with weather or day/night. Not storable or portable energy like oil or natural gas so unsuited for present vehicles and industry. Batteries bulky, expensive, wear out in 5-10 years.

A typical solar water panel array can deliver 50% to 85% of a home’s hot water though. Using some of our precious remaining crude oil as fuel for manufacturing solar equipment may be wise.

Wind

Wind power accounts for .07% of global energy supply. As with solar, energy varies greatly with weather, and is not portable or storable like oil and gas.

Wind can not supply oil derivatives such as fertilizer or plastics.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen accounts for 0.01% of global energy. Hydrogen is currently manufactured from methane gas. It takes more energy to create it than the hydrogen actually provides. It is therefore an energy “carrier” not a source. Liquid hydrogen occupies four to eleven times the bulk of equivalent gasoline or diesel. Existing vehicles and aircraft and existing distribution systems are not suited to it. Solar hydrogen might be an option in some of the hot countries.

Nuclear

Nuclear is currently being abandoned globally. Its ability to soften the oil crash is very problematic due to several factors:

1. Possibility of accidents and terrorism.

2. Cost: one reactor costs about 13 billion dollars.

3. Number of reactors needed: 1,000's

4. Not directly suited for transportation or agriculture.

5. Uranium requires energy from oil from in order to be mined.

6. All abandoned reactors are radioactive for decades or millennia.

7. Even if we were to overlook these problems, nuclear power is only a short-term solution. Uranium, too, has a Hubbert's peak, and the current known reserves can supply the earth's energy needs for only 25 years at best.

Coal

Coal accounts for 24% of current global energy supply. As a replacement for oil, it is unsuitable due to the fact that it is 50% to 200% heavier than oil per energy unit. Substituting coal for oil would require expansion of coal mining, leading to land ruin and increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast to oil and gas fuels, fine-tuning the rate at which coal burns is difficult. It is therefore used in power stations to make electricity, wasting half of its energy content.

Coal mining operations run on oil fuels as do coal-mining machinery and transportation. Pollution is also a major problem. A single coal-fired station can produce a million tons of solid waste each year. Burning coal in homes pollutes air with acrid smog containing acid gases and particles. Large pollution & environmental problems: (Smog, greenhouse gases, and acid rain). Finally, liquid fuels from coal are very inefficient, and huge amounts of water required.

Non-Conventional Sources Such as Shale, Tar Sand, & Coalbed Methane

These non-conventional sources currently account for 6% of US gas supply. Each of these alternatives would require a huge investment in research and infrastructure to exploit them, plus large amounts of now-expiring oil, before they could be brought online.

For example, in Canada about 200 thousand barrels a day are being produced in Alberta of non-conventional oil, but it takes about 2 barrels of oil in energy investment to produce 3 barrels of oil equivalent from those resources. Additionally, the environmental costs are horrendous and the process uses a tremendous amount of fresh water and also natural gas, both of which are in limited supply.

The major problem with non-conventional oil is that they cannot be exploited before the oil shocks cripple attempts to bring them on line, and the rate of extraction is far too slow to meet the huge global energy demand.

I hope that we can discover and create new forms of energy that are just as cost effective as oil and yet are cleaner and better than oil. I think what we lack now is motivation to do so. Companies like relying on oil and don't want to change. But I see hydrogen powered cars and buses are becoming a reality.. regardless if they are inplausible at this moment to go mainstream.. THEY ARE ON THE HORIZON.

I can see that our society is largely based on oil and when it goes, our current lifestyle will go. So what, now we have to use a blanket instead of a aircon..

As for food production, I think that is going to be the killer for most. But if we stop having babies (Japan is already learning this), then we won't need more food. But the industrialized worlds are not the targets for baby production.. 3rd world countries should be held more responsible for the increases in population.

Maybe the world needs to institute a 1 child policy

Interesting read. Thanks Rob.

[Molokidan]

That was cool to read, but I don't think it's going to be as extreme as this guy says. We're eventually going to surpass fossil fuels, plus, even if we don't, we have untapped oil resources all over the world, especially in canada. Besides, like other people have said, electric cars, hydrogen-powered stuff, etc., can save our butts when we need it. We might get into a depression for a little bit, but that "5.5 billion deaths" thing that guy was talking about is totally absurd.