Coligny wrote:The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...
And how's that going for them now?
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Coligny wrote:The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...
FG Lurker wrote:The world needs to start standing up to China, and seeing Japan make even token efforts in this direction is a good start IMO.
cstaylor wrote:What I'm saying is that the Japanese have a choice whether to escalate or not.
cstaylor wrote:I prefer politicians that work in concert with others, not just stamp their feet and scream until they get their way. Large corporations have enough of those types already.
cstaylor wrote:The point I was making was Toyotomi using the a foreign invasion to solidify his control of Japan. Like Napoleon, he cut off the route he himself took to power.
cstaylor wrote:He will be if he takes Japan into a third world war. (where's that nuke icon when you need it)
cstaylor wrote:Can you name one war after WW2 where the losing belligerent was a nuclear state? I'm not talking about wars of attrition like Afghanistan or Vietnam. Yom Kippur was probably the closest. What do you think is going to happen if the gloves come off?
cstaylor wrote:Considering how close we are to Tokyo and that Yokosuka and Yokohama have military bases, I'd rather not get caught in the crossfire over these puny rocks.
cstaylor wrote:Coligny wrote:The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...
And how's that going for them now?
FG Lurker wrote:That's rather premature then since Hashimoto has no actual power in Japan at this time and quite possibly never will.
cstaylor wrote:Coligny wrote:The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...
And how's that going for them now?
Coligny wrote:cstaylor wrote:Coligny wrote:The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...
And how's that going for them now?
Can't tell for sure... but seems much better than Greece, Iceland, Spain, Portugal and on and on...
Coligny wrote:cstaylor wrote:Coligny wrote:The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...
And how's that going for them now?
Can't tell for sure... but seems much better than Greece, Iceland, Spain, Portugal and on and on...
cstaylor wrote:I'll drink to that.FG Lurker wrote:That's rather premature then since Hashimoto has no actual power in Japan at this time and quite possibly never will.
FG Lurker wrote:Have some nice 25yo Scotch here I'd share a glass of.
Most protests are localized and deal with complaints about local issues and are directed at local officials, bosses or employers not Beijing or the system, and they do not present a threat to the Chinese government.
Coligny wrote:Chinese demonstrations seems to be aboot village quarrels... apple to oranges no ?
cstaylor wrote:Okay, so here's the scenario:
cstaylor wrote:In all scenarios I've read about, the treaty obligations are in place to prevent a surprise first strike; but here we have Japan as the initial aggressor.
cstaylor wrote:maybe because I did too much Oxford-style debating in high school?
cstaylor wrote:Okay, so here's the scenario:
- Coastal cutters go head-to-head around the Senkakus
- Japan sinks a Chinese military vessel
- In a "Remember the Maine!" moment, China invades the Ryukyu islands or sinks some Japanse shipping out of Kyuushu
- Massaging the meaning of Article 9, newly elected dictator-for-life Hashimoto launches a strike on Hainan, crippling the Chinese fleet at anchor there
At this point, the PLA knows that it only has subs, land based aircraft, and nuclear weapons as options. Outclassed by the combination of Japanese and American forces, it's either negotiate or go nuclear. A rapid first strike on the major population centers of Honshu would effectively end Japan as a country, and then America would have to decide whether adding to the misery by launching missiles against China would be a good idea.
In all scenarios I've read about, the treaty obligations are in place to prevent a surprise first strike; but here we have Japan as the initial aggressor.
If it comes to blows, I can't see how it would not go nuclear; maybe because I did too much Oxford-style debating in high school?
FG Lurker wrote:China freaks the hell out but realizes they're in over their head and backs down while muttering threats and going on about how Japan is a US puppet state.
FG Lurker wrote:How would Japan be the initial aggressor in the scenario you proposed? Japan controls the islands, there isn't much debate outside of China about who they belong to. If China makes a move on them Japan would be reacting to that, not making a first strike.
FG Lurker wrote:Or perhaps your cultural background influences your thinking more than you realize.
Screwed-down Hairdo wrote:While the Senkakus are perceived as vital to the interests of all parties involved, dispute over ownership will ultimately be resolved diplomatically, simply because none of them can afford the cost of going to war and East Asians value money over absolutely everything.
cstaylor wrote:Now they're placing ads in the newspaper
In August, the Japanese government formally proposed to South Korea that the two countries jointly let the ICJ resolve their sovereignty dispute over a group of sparsely inhabited outcroppings roughly halfway between them, that are controlled by South Korea, which calls them Dokdo, but claimed by Japan, which calls them Takeshima.
chokonen888 wrote:In August, the Japanese government formally proposed to South Korea that the two countries jointly let the ICJ resolve their sovereignty dispute over a group of sparsely inhabited outcroppings roughly halfway between them, that are controlled by South Korea, which calls them Dokdo, but claimed by Japan, which calls them Takeshima.
That...that's actually fucking reasonable!
Tsuru wrote:Oh god no! An ad. A two-page ad! In two newspapers!
We're dooooomed!
If you really think it's going to kick off over the Senkaku you need to get a grip. If anything serious were to happen China will at that moment have started off serious shit with all of the nations it has territorial disputes with, because they will know they are next. And they happen to be most of the countries on its borders or across its seas, which include other nuclear nations than just Japan and the USA. India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Pakistan, to name a few. So many people are pissed off at China in the reagion that if they start something, they have regional wars on all sides to deal with. And no matter how powerful you think China is, even they cannot be expected to deal with that and not suffer some kind of loss.
Tsuru wrote:And no matter how powerful you think China is, even they cannot be expected to deal with that and not suffer some kind of loss.
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