IparryU wrote:FTFY
It only works if you furikomi back to yen....and we already know what Coligny would do with it...
http://www.moderncat.net/2008/10/08/unbelievable-cat-friendly-house-design-from-japan/
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IparryU wrote:FTFY
chokonen888 wrote:It only works if you furikomi back to yen....and we already know what Coligny would do with it...
http://www.moderncat.net/2008/10/08/unbelievable-cat-friendly-house-design-from-japan/
Coligny wrote:and buying the rights to all Yua Aida's movies to re-release them uncensored...
Coligny wrote:BTW, awesome link Choko... i'm off to zee hardware store...
Cyka UchuuJin wrote:So the yen finally broke the 80 barrier on the USD today. Is this the start of a real weakening or is it just a blip?
gaijinpunch wrote:It is probably due to the Greek bailout. I'm not blowing myself just yet. Who knows what will happen.... I think the last few years have taught us that economists know jack shit.
Cyka UchuuJin wrote:So the yen finally broke the 80 barrier on the USD today. Is this the start of a real weakening or is it just a blip?
Russell wrote:Looks like the 50 level that I predicted a while ago will not be reached.
There are three factors driving the Yen down:
- The printing press was started,
- Japan invests a huge amount of money in the European bailout,
- The perception of a trade deficit, as a result of the increased imports of oil.
chokonen888 wrote:I just hope it stays in the 70's/low 80's, I scrapped every one of my export businesses and have been enjoying the imports.
FG Lurker wrote:It's not going to stay in the 70s/low 80s. The question is when will it move towards 90, 100, and beyond? The bigger question is how far beyond will it go?
Japan has a debt to GDP ratio over over 225% and a yearly deficit of well over 10% of GDP. About half of the initial budget is funded by debt and generally all of the supplementary budgets are debt funded. Gov't 10 year bond rates are ~1% and shorter term bonds are lower, but even with these incredibly low rates something between 40% and 50% of all tax receipts are used to pay interest on debt. What happens when rates need to go up? Even at 2% Japan would be near default.
I don't want to be all doom and gloom about this but I don't see much of a way out for Japan with regards to this massive debt.
chokonen888 wrote:Long term, I agree with your assessment...but as you said, it's a question of timing. If, after 3~4 years I need to switch back to exporting, I may do so...but I don't see it happening in the neat year or so.
FG Lurker wrote:I don't agree with everything this guy says, and English clearly isn't his first language, but he does give a pretty good overview of the situation.
There are many articles out there that talk about similar things but generally only a bit at a time.
The question is when will it move towards 90, 100, and beyond?
legion wrote:yeah, Toyota and co repatriate their money, then it strengthens again to allow the domestic manufacturers to go shopping again for parts
gaijinpunch wrote:You gotta assume they did most of what needed to be done at the last intervention... specifically to thwart exactly what you stated. If they repatriate their money, generally it strengthens... not weakens, a la last year's Earthquake.
FG Lurker wrote:I don't want to be all doom and gloom about this but I don't see much of a way out for Japan with regards to this massive debt.
cstaylor wrote:Who owns the debt? Elderly Japanese.
Solution: Government-sponsored "ore-ore sagi" campaign.
gaijinpunch wrote:You gotta assume they did most of what needed to be done at the last intervention... specifically to thwart exactly what you stated. If they repatriate their money, generally it strengthens... not weakens, a la last year's Earthquake.
FG Lurker wrote:The strengthening after last year's quake was pure speculation.
there you go applying logic to a country which famously has an ambivalent relationship with logic
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