What's up with the value of the YEN?

[Taro Toporific]

Is this yen and stock market increase all because of Trump?

Yikes!
The Fed just increased US interest rates for the first time since like forever---and the Yen/USD is on the move.
(Fed lifts rates, sees faster pace of hikes in Trump's first year ---reuters.com)

Screen Shot 2016-12-15 at 7.06.55.png

[canman]

I can see it at Y120 by Friday! So Abe is finally going to get the inflation he wanted, but not the way he wanted it! Which means pain for everybody but a few multinational companies.

[kurogane]

Yeah, the CAD is rocketing against the yen. A touch late for me this visit but if this keeps up it could be a winter and spring of Cheap Japan, like a few years back. Great for me, not great for you doughnut munchers sending money back.

[matsuki]

Shiiiiiii, what were they saying bout the stability of the Yen?

[yanpa]

Who and what?

[kurogane]

Yes......me 3, LOL

[matsuki]

There are always people promoting how the yen is a stable and safe investment haven?

[yanpa]

There are?

I'm no FX expert but over the years it seems to swing fairly regularly if not entirely predictably on an arc between 75 and 125 to the USD. If someone wishes to believe people promoting investment opportunities it's up to them I guess.

As an exporter I am happy with the current trend

[Wage Slave]

As someone with his more liquid assets outside Japan the current trend suits me fine too. The Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are seen as safe haven currencies what people flee to during times of economic turbulence. Gold comes in the same category. To some extent it is true - the Yen does tend to strengthen when things are unsettled and weaken again when they stabilise. Why the market believes that the Yen is an oasis of strength and stability in an unstable world is a complete mystery to me especially as that nice Mr Abe has been doing everything in his power to disabuse people of the notion. The Fx market is even more irrational and volatile than most. And that's saying something.

[Mike Oxlong]

U.S. dollar's worst start to a year in 3 decades
The U.S. dollar has lost its mojo. Tough talk from
President Trump is at least partially to blame.

The greenback initially surged after Trump was elected as investors bet that his agenda of tax cuts and infrastructure spending would accelerate the American economy.

But thanks in part to Trump's complaints that the strong dollar is "killing" the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar retreated 2.6% against a basket of currencies in January. It was the worst January for the greenback since 1987.

Another dip for the U.S. dollar on Thursday left it at the lowest level since mid-November and down 4% from the recent peak.

So what's going on? One factor is that Trump and his team have talked the U.S. dollar down. Clearly, they realize a super-strong greenback makes it harder to deliver on promises to boost American exports and create manufacturing jobs. The Trump team has been accusing several countries of manipulating their currencies.

For instance, the U.S. dollar tumbled on Tuesday after a Trump adviser accused Germany of using a "grossly undervalued" euro to hurt the American economy.

Germany "continues to exploit other countries in the EU as well as the U.S. with an 'implicit Deutsche Mark' that is grossly undervalued," Peter Navarro, who heads Trump's National Trade Council, told the Financial Times.

Trump himself weighed in on the same day. During a meeting with pharma CEOs, Trump said other countries' strategy of devaluing their currencies have caused drug companies to ship jobs overseas.

And just before taking office, Trump told The Wall Street Journal that U.S. companies can't compete with China because "our currency is too strong."
"It's killing us," Trump said.

Ironically, talking down your own currency -- or suggesting others are tinkering with theirs -- is a also considered form of currency manipulation.

Still, it makes perfect sense that Trump and his advisers would want to prevent the dollar from getting too expensive. A strong dollar makes American goods like iPhones more expensive for foreign buyers. It also makes it less attractive for auto makers like Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) to bring jobs back to the U.S. -- a core Trump goal.

But the dollar is pulling back for other reasons too.

The Trump market rally, for instance, has cooled off in recent weeks because investors are no longer sure the stimulus he's promised will happen soon.

Specifically, there is growing concern that the infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts Trump wants won't get done as quickly as investors hoped. That means any benefit to the economy and the dollar won't be felt yet either.

Currency analysts also pointed to big question marks looming over Trump's trade policy. Many fear that if Trump takes a protectionist stance by imposing tariffs, it will spark a trade war that will hurt the U.S. economy. That would be bad for the dollar.

The Federal Reserve isn't doing the dollar any favors either. The Fed's statement on Wednesday did nothing to alter the thinking that the central bank isn't in a rush to raise interest rates enough to make the dollar more attractive.

The good news for investors is the dollar pullback has given a boost to shares of U.S. multinationals like Nike (NKE) and Apple (AAPL, Tech30).

"If the dollar's downtrend continues, stay invested in the international-heavy sectors," Bespoke Investment Group analysts wrote in a report.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/02/investi ... lar-trump/

[canman]

I thought for sure with all this saber rattling about trade wars and punitive tariffs levied on goods entering the US that the Nikkei would fall off a cliff and the Yen would start to strengthen, but nothing like that has started to happen. Do most people think this is just blustering by Donnie Two Shoes, or are they waiting for the NoKo summit to end before the mass self-off begins! Discuss among yourselves.

[Wage Slave]

I thought for sure with all this saber rattling about trade wars and punitive tariffs levied on goods entering the US that the Nikkei would fall off a cliff and the Yen would start to strengthen, but nothing like that has started to happen. Do most people think this is just blustering by Donnie Two Shoes, or are they waiting for the NoKo summit to end before the mass self-off begins! Discuss among yourselves.

I don't think it's possible to predict either the level of the dollar or stock markets - As far as my personal investing is concerned I am still in hold mode and doing a little buying of what I think are good and proven companies on the dips thrown up by recent volatility. If there is a crash then I will simply hold tight. If I have to hold for another five years, then fine - I'll do that.

As for Trumpy - I don't have a lot of faith in either his abilities or his approach. He's a risk but he will also panic if the markets start to tank. At present he seems to think that the US economy/markets can get better and better while other economies/markets tank - probably thinks it's a zero sum game like competing real estate developers in New York. He'll soon find out that's not the case and most of his impulse decisions can be reversed just as quickly as they were made. And he has no problem with with dramatic pivots -consistency and coherence don't worry him.

[canman]

Y112.5 and climbing! I wonder how high it will go this time! Not sure what market forces are causing this rise. Is it the trade war between China and the US?

[matsuki]

Nice, just got paid in USD

[Russell]

Y112.5 and climbing! I wonder how high it will go this time! Not sure what market forces are causing this rise. Is it the trade war between China and the US?

It is just that the retard at the other side of the ocean is retarder than the retard at this side of the ocean. Splains it all...

Edit: OK, upon checking I noticed that the Yen is actually decreasing against the US$, so it cannot be explained by the balance of retardedness in the leaderships of countries. Or can it?!?

[Wage Slave]

Y112.5 and climbing! I wonder how high it will go this time! Not sure what market forces are causing this rise. Is it the trade war between China and the US?

It is just that the retard at the other side of the ocean is retarder than the retard at this side of the ocean. Splains it all...

Edit: OK, upon checking I noticed that the Yen is actually decreasing against the US$, so it cannot be explained by the balance of retardedness in the leaderships of countries. Or can it?!?

The level of retardedness is unstable on both sides so there is no chance of striking a stable equilibrium - even for a day. There is also the absurd amount of herd behaviour on the part of the traders who speculate on currencies to factor in - and they pretty much dominate the market. So, the Yen is high compared to recently and going higher (ie falling in value) against the dollar. Why that is and when that will change is anybody's guess. I don't even attempt to second guess these things - choosing a decent company with good prospects to invest in or choosing a good proposition for a bit of P2P lending at least gives me a chance of bringing a little rational analysis to the party.

[yanpa]

Not the yen, but wow is the Brexitaniastan Pound taking a beating, back down to 125 to the yen and heading for parity with the Euro at this rate.

[Mike Oxlong]

You should see the Canuckistani dollar.

[matsuki]

I was moving my money to USD while then Yen was up but it's tilting back the other way now...