How Are You Guys Holding Up?

[Russell]

Wifey was contemplating to stock up on some canned food, but I discouraged her, because afterwards you have to eat that shit. And how much is enough anyway?

[Wage Slave]

Bizzare. Just popped into my local supermarket to get a few random items (at 5% off as well) and everyone was totally calm, free hand sanitiser on offer at the entrances, everything in normal stock except for masks and toilet paper. Listening to Radio 5 there was a nurse on who had just finished a 14 hour shift and then gone to her local supermarket to find there weren't even any fresh fruit or vegetables left. She was in tears. Just in time supply also implies no "just in case" reserves and very limited ability to increase supply in response to a short term spike in demand.

Most people here already have a little strategic reserve for earthquakes in place and credit where it is due - they don't panic at the drop of a natural disaster hat. And if doctors say it is a really good idea for everyone to wash their hands many times a day they (well 99%) just do it whether someone is watching or not.

Wangta, I'm afraid you are well over the top. From what I hear from my sister in Oz, things are far from as sorted as they imperfectly are here. And I don't agree that your polemic is general misanthropy. If it were, I would be fine with it. But it isn't. It's racist. And that is intensely regrettable.

[yanpa]

Ah but what you are missing is that somebody's uncle or first cousin twice removed on the internet is the ultimate authoritative source on all things covid-19 related.

Anyway I'm off with the familiy to Blighty, De Wallspaffer "Last Gasp" Fridgehider says we can be pushing the coranavirus off the White Cliffs of Dover within 12 weeks.

[wagyl]

I'm off with the family to Blighty,

Here in East Pretoria, I was just speaking to some German tourists who have a scheduled flight to Frankfurt in 10 days. Well, they did, anyway. At this stage, the flight from East Pretoria to Singapore is not cancelled*, but there are no flights scheduled at all from Singapore to Frankfurt, until eternity.

Just be ready for the chance that it may be a very long visit to the Sunlit Uplands.™

* not cancelled, but not guaranteed if the date is more than 72 hours in advance. Which it is.

[John Dillinger]

Maybe someone should check in on Taro.

Fucking Chinese!

Godzilla.gif

The WuFlu just killed my beloved* brother-in-law, grrrr.
The official/fake "Japanese" statistics will say he, "died of heart-lung 'complications'", sheesh.

*"Beloved" in part because at age 52 my brother-in-law was
my home-care/retirement safety net in case my 12 years-younger wife died early.
Also, my wife and I were planning to retire on the brother-in-law's rice ranch.

Taro, I'm sorry for your loss.

[Russell]

Bizzare. Just popped into my local supermarket to get a few random items (at 5% off as well) and everyone was totally calm, free hand sanitiser on offer at the entrances, everything in normal stock except for masks and toilet paper. Listening to Radio 5 there was a nurse on who had just finished a 14 hour shift and then gone to her local supermarket to find there weren't even any fresh fruit or vegetables left. She was in tears. Just in time supply also implies no "just in case" reserves and very limited ability to increase supply in response to a short term spike in demand.

Most people here already have a little strategic reserve for earthquakes in place and credit where it is due - they don't panic at the drop of a natural disaster hat. And if doctors say it is a really good idea for everyone to wash their hands many times a day they (well 99%) just do it whether someone is watching or not.

Wangta, I'm afraid you are well over the top. From what I hear from my sister in Oz, things are far from as sorted as they imperfectly are here. And I don't agree that your polemic is general misanthropy. If it were, I would be fine with it. But it isn't. It's racist. And that is intensely regrettable.

Yes this.

I am a bit worried, however, that people in Japan underestimate this disease a bit, judging by how crowded some restaurants are. Anyway, let's hope for the best. The TV seems to give realistic coverage of the risks.

[yanpa]

I'm off with the family to Blighty,

Here in East Pretoria, I was just speaking to some German tourists who have a scheduled flight to Frankfurt in 10 days. Well, they did, anyway. At this stage, the flight from East Pretoria to Singapore is not cancelled*, but there are no flights scheduled at all from Singapore to Frankfurt, until eternity.

Just be ready for the chance that it may be a very long visit to the Sunlit Uplands.™

* not cancelled, but not guaranteed if the date is more than 72 hours in advance. Which it is.

Bit of af a long way round, presumably no-one is pointing jets north?

A co-worker who lives in India was planning to visit Japan last week, we worked out that had the trip gone ahead, he probably would have ended up with two, possibly three spells of 14 day quarantine/self-isolation.

I will of course be throwing my lot with the kokumin and their quaint habits of not handshaking or bearhugging or giving acquaintances they haven't met for at least a day wet sloppy cheek kisses, and refrain from licking train poles etc.

A trip around central Tokyo today, at least some bits I usually frequent, has shown it is for some reason not full of people coughing and sneezing into each others' faces, though TBH if you weren't familiar with how it normally is you wouldn't know there's a virus on.

[wangta]

Wangta, I'm afraid you are well over the top. From what I hear from my sister in Oz, things are far from as sorted as they imperfectly are here. And I don't agree that your polemic is general misanthropy. If it were, I would be fine with it. But it isn't. It's racist. And that is intensely regrettable.

Oh go and virtue signal somewhere else. This is fucked gaijin. Blankets statements about many people including Japanese cause we live here and see their particular brand of bullshit daily have been part of fuckedgaijin since before I joined. FG's never been for delicate sensibilities what with the memorable fucks off and cunts and whatever in posts for years.

Unfortunately daily I see Japanese who are as stupid as boxes of rocks are around. I see them on the subway everyday. I see them walking around the local stores sneezing in that huge 'I am a Japanese man and I don't need to stifle my sneezing' way. Fuck em and also their coughing with no covering. Fuck the groups flocking around now because there is no problem apparently, do what you like but stop standing in my fucking space. This aint racist you dumbfucks - it's common sense.

The secretaries are sneezing around the reception desk without covering their mouths. I have NEVER seen that in Oz. You'd be pulled up for that instantly. Again the dumbness - oh it's just kafunsho. Yeah but you could also have the virus and guess what, you've probably just infected our clients.

I hear Japanese people prattle in my job, telling me that because 'Abe San' told em there is no need to worry, there's no emergency. Everywhere is a problem but not Japan of course because as they say or imply, they are superior. In their cleanliness. Even while they fiddle with dirty hands with masks they told me they haven't changed all day. Even while they drop their masks on surfaces covered with god knows what invisible shit.

Keep piping 'racist' but I'd say the same of everybody and yep, there is a lot of shit for brain behavior going on here. The sanity I get is back home in my ward where my blue collar neighbours tell me that they hate Abe and his lies.

As for your little snip at Oz - who the fuck says it's perfect there? But the Gov is testing people and not trying to actively prevent people from getting it done unlike the policy of the J Gov that they're not honest enough to come out and admit cause they don't want to know how many cases there really are. Keep making excuses and keep bleating about whatever. I'm dealing in facts.

Oh yeah, none less than the World Health Organisation is in fact very critical of Japan for gambling with their countries' peoples health. And I think medical professionals have every right to talk about it too - one of the countries that is on the list of being high risk at border security level for many countries is Japan. But don't let that stop you.

[wangta]

I still believe there are far more infected without symptoms than we realize. Talk of 2 strains now, second wave starting in China...while a massive wave of Chinese fly back to China because the C-gov is pushing a "China defeated the virus! Safest place evaR!!" narrative. All the while the CCP officials are keeping their children out of "errtingzu fine! we most safe!" China.

The lack of testing means lack of data, meaning we're sill guessing....no bueno senor Abe. I was at the local mall yesterday and today (pet vaccinations) and while not as crowded as usual, plenty of people there, shops are all open, fewer mask wearing people.

The China virus? The Wu-Flu? Kung Flu?

How about CCP Virus?

No NO NO - stop making sense. We need more offended petals here to cheer on the Japanese and how their superior cleanliness is saving the day. Nothing to see here!

[Russell]

Wangta, I sometimes wonder how you get through the day without spilling coffee on the carpet...

[Wage Slave]

Wangta, I sometimes wonder how you get through the day without spilling coffee on the carpet...

Or tripping over your shoelaces. Or collapsing under the weight of those huge chips you are carrying.

[wagyl]

That last one is easy. When you have two huge chips, there is one for each shoulder and you can manage quite a load as long as you balance it out between each side.

[Wage Slave]

That last one is easy. When you have two huge chips, there is one for each shoulder and you can manage quite a load as long as you balance it out between each side.

Yep, a chip on both shoulders works surprisingly well.

[wangta]

Ah but what you are missing is that somebody's uncle or first cousin twice removed on the internet is the ultimate authoritative source on all things covid-19 related.

He's my dad's older brother's son. His father is my uncle. He's not a GP - General Practitioner - but specializes in Virology.
He knows what he's talking about but as he said anybody in the health profession knows which countries govs are withholding info from their own people and deciding risk is better than honesty.

I'm just waiting now for somebody to say he doesn't know shit. Or that Japanese are okay because only Kyushu and Okinawa people have genes that are similar to Chinese - something I heard this week from somebody I work with.

There's a reason why WHO has singled out Japan as the major example. Test Test Test is WHO's directive.

Oh yeah and I know wageslave supposedly has teleporting ability and knows what's going on everywhere but down in Kyushu there were people shoving each other at a supermarket a few weeks ago, just like the mask rage in Kanagawa. And a lot of people I know still can't buy toilet paper. Including in Tokyo. They'd have to line up early at pharmacies, supermarkets etc and they have jobs to go to.

[yanpa]

Ah but what you are missing is that somebody's uncle or first cousin twice removed on the internet is the ultimate authoritative source on all things covid-19 related.

He's my dad's older brother's son. His father is my uncle. He's not a GP - General Practitioner - but specializes in Virology.
He knows what he's talking about but as he said anybody in the health profession knows which countries govs are withholding info from their own people and deciding risk is better than honesty.

I'm just waiting now for somebody to say he doesn't know shit.

Mate, the point is I don't know you; your dad's older brother's son may or may not exist (and I'm very happy to accept that he does indeed exist and knows what he's talking about) but from my point of view it's just "something someone said on the internet". Nothing personal, but please excuse me if I am very skeptical about any claims like that not backed up with any supporting information.

[wangta]

No problem.

Japan now has over 900 cases and around 32 deaths and too many of the public seem to be complacent as far as I can see from Tokyo. Yet there's all this horseshit on the net and social media with gaijin and Japanese alike congratulating the country and finger wagging at Europe, the UK, USA etc.

The most important fact that people are ignoring is the open borders of western countries. Japan doesn't allow dual citizenship or more and doesn't have constant inflows of people from just about every country in the world bouncing from Japan to back home for some months, then back again etc. Europe is the opposite.

The USA has 300 million plus people from everywhere constantly moving around, Oz has tied its economy to China for more than a decade now and is getting bitten by that - 31,000 Chinese students returned over the last months and apart from them most cases have come from Chinese and Iranian background people going back home on their Oz passports etc. The UK is the same story of mass movements of people from just about everywhere doing the same. European countries including Italy give far more residence visas to Chinese and non Europeans than Japan would ever do any time.

Fuck I'd be happy if Japan was the outlier and manages to keep the fucking virus well under control but I know what the Gov is like here. No autopsies done as a practice. Plenty of asymptomatic people likely to be running around here with it as well as others who have pleaded for a test but been refused. It's starting to gain momentum in Kansai, showing us part of the reality.

I can state there have been cases in Ota Ward including at a hospital, Nakano Higashi and Shinjuku but thanks to secrecy and bullshit here I don't know where exactly to avoid.

[wagyl]

I can state there have been cases in Ota Ward including at a hospital, Nakano Higashi and Shinjuku but thanks to secrecy and bullshit here I don't know where exactly to avoid.

I would suggest that the most prudent thing to do is to assume that everyone is a potential carrier. There is so much movement within Tokyo that I don't think avoiding any particular part of it will make you any safer. You will be exposed to this eventually, wherever you are. In some countries, they are trying to train the citizens to act to slow -- not prevent, but slow -- transmission so that the medical services are not overwhelmed. You are young and healthy, and if you take a positive attitude to your environment your chances of coming out the other side without suffering major symptoms improves.

[Russell]

I can state there have been cases in Ota Ward including at a hospital, Nakano Higashi and Shinjuku but thanks to secrecy and bullshit here I don't know where exactly to avoid.

I would suggest that the most prudent thing to do is to assume that everyone is a potential carrier. There is so much movement within Tokyo that I don't think avoiding any particular part of it will make you any safer. You will be exposed to this eventually, wherever you are. In some countries, they are trying to train the citizens to act to slow -- not prevent, but slow -- transmission so that the medical services are not overwhelmed. You are young and healthy, and if you take a positive attitude to your environment your chances of coming out the other side without suffering major symptoms improves.

Good advice, Wagyl.

In addition to assuming that everyone has the virus, it is also better to assume that oneself has the virus.

That gives some guidelines on how to behave so that other people will not be affected.

These two principles will definitely slow the virus down, so that the medical system can appropriately deal with the problem.

[CrankyBastard]

Advice given to me by the captain of the first ship I sailed on, "'Focus only on what you can control."

[Wage Slave]

Absolute bedlam out there. People fighting for the toilet paper.

IMG_20200321_105555 - Copy.jpg

[matsuki]

I can state there have been cases in Ota Ward including at a hospital, Nakano Higashi and Shinjuku but thanks to secrecy and bullshit here I don't know where exactly to avoid.

I would suggest that the most prudent thing to do is to assume that everyone is a potential carrier. There is so much movement within Tokyo that I don't think avoiding any particular part of it will make you any safer. You will be exposed to this eventually, wherever you are. In some countries, they are trying to train the citizens to act to slow -- not prevent, but slow -- transmission so that the medical services are not overwhelmed. You are young and healthy, and if you take a positive attitude to your environment your chances of coming out the other side without suffering major symptoms improves.

Good advice, Wagyl.

In addition to assuming that everyone has the virus, it is also better to assume that oneself has the virus.

That gives some guidelines on how to behave so that other people will not be affected.

These two principles will definitely slow the virus down, so that the medical system can appropriately deal with the problem.

Just my anecdotal observations but...

1.) Loads of people I know are out doing hanami

2.) Local mall was absolutely packed today

3.) Even mask usage seems to have dropped off

4.) TP is back baby!

Basically, a significant amount of the population isn't taking it too seriously anymore. Judging by what we're hearing about asymptomatic carriers and those carriers suddenly coming down with symptoms weeks later, I'm still quite worried this is just the calm before the storm...but the other possibility is the spread has already been slowed by the initial actions, school closures, work from home measures. Either way, for the moment, we simply don't know so avoiding unnecessary outings/gatherings and taking other precautionary measures seems reasonable. China is reporting 0 to 4 new cases a day, claiming victory but a leak just showed it's far from over there with up to 80 new cases a day. Meanwhile, California is on full lockdown...a measure that could prove invaluable in slowing the spread or overcautious and an economic disaster. The only thing we can say with certainty is we need more testing...

[Scipio]

'Absolute bedlam out there. People fighting for the toilet paper.'

Your recent posts on this thread remind me of Chernobyl and before you ask whether I'm comparing this crisis with Chernobyl, no I'm not; this is a much bigger crises of international health, than Chernobyl. Also, we all know how this will eventually play out in Japan. The Japan political elites fuck up (The economic bubble bursting in the 1980s, 1990s Asian financial crises, the 2008 financial crises), those elites blame 'Johnny Foreigner' (Plaza Accord, Korean/Thai over-borrowing, the Lehman's Shock) and the Japanese public will believe this version, broadcast daily by NHK, hook line and sinker. Here in Tokyo, there's definitely something wrong with the way the Japanese government is handling this situation. Today in my local park, it was hanami parties as usual with hundreds, of all ages, getting sloshed beneath the cherry blossom. I'm sure quite a few of them are soon to find out how fleeting life can be, thanks to the present Japanese government policy on Covid, rather than the cherry blossom.

[wangta]

Absolute bedlam out there. People fighting for the toilet paper.

IMG_20200321_105555 - Copy.jpg

Thanks to all the people who gave positive responses/comments.

This comment and pic aint one of them. Stop your sneering and tell us where you live - I live in Tokyo and most people I know there can't get toilet paper. They're not Costco members or whatever and in the 23 wards most of the free people eg housewives that don't work or work part time or whatever are cleaning out the pharmacies, supermarkets, daiso lawsons etc.
Some of the hoarders were/are organized and selling online.

The truckie I live near was able to get some but I'm talking about other people in areas outside of mine.

I'm talking about people without J connections family wise. As well as some J people I know who don't come from Tokyo and don't live at home with the folks while they're studying or working and therefore don't have access to supplies. Some of us J and gaijin alike are working - we don't have time to line up at stores or rush in to the toilet paper section. If you're so intent on making a point then tell us this location.

It seems time for Japan to adopt what Australian supermarkets mostly have done off their own bat - put limits on essentials including toilet paper that everybody needs. The gov has also identified certain groups - both organized crime and others organizing themselves into selfish bastard squads - that have cleaned out the supermarkets in order to shift the products for profit, in many cases overseas. They will be hammered.

[wangta]

'Absolute bedlam out there. People fighting for the toilet paper.'

Your recent posts on this thread remind me of Chernobyl and before you ask whether I'm comparing this crisis with Chernobyl, no I'm not; this is a much bigger crises of international health, than Chernobyl. Also, we all know how this will eventually play out in Japan. The Japan political elites fuck up (The economic bubble bursting in the 1980s, 1990s Asian financial crises, the 2008 financial crises), those elites blame 'Johnny Foreigner' (Plaza Accord, Korean/Thai over-borrowing, the Lehman's Shock) and the Japanese public will believe this version, broadcast daily by NHK, hook line and sinker. Here in Tokyo, there's definitely something wrong with the way the Japanese government is handling this situation. Today in my local park, it was hanami parties as usual with hundreds, of all ages, getting sloshed beneath the cherry blossom. I'm sure quite a few of them are soon to find out how fleeting life can be, thanks to the present Japanese government policy on Covid, rather than the cherry blossom.

The Kansai region is looking like it's the canary in the coalmine. I hope I'm wrong.
From a number of sources, Japan's testing is incredibly small compared to its population. That tells me the 1,016 cases reported recently are probably double/triple if testing was being done to any real extent. Japan doesn't do autopsies generally and pre-existing conditions of old people make it very easy to list deaths as heart trouble, etc.

The complacency is obvious here among the general population in thronging around and hanging around very close to each other - no social distancing going on most places, people still have the high pop density behavior of just about breathing down my neck while waiting at traffic lights even when it's not so crowded or moving very close in shopping lines when they could stand back, people are crowding the streets including schoolkids who used their time off to hang outside in crowded shopping places.

There's info to suggest that young people around 30 and younger can be asymptomatic to significant degrees. Hope the Olympics are cancelled asap.

[Wage Slave]

'Absolute bedlam out there. People fighting for the toilet paper.'

Your recent posts on this thread remind me of Chernobyl and before you ask whether I'm comparing this crisis with Chernobyl, no I'm not; this is a much bigger crises of international health, than Chernobyl. Also, we all know how this will eventually play out in Japan. The Japan political elites fuck up (The economic bubble bursting in the 1980s, 1990s Asian financial crises, the 2008 financial crises), those elites blame 'Johnny Foreigner' (Plaza Accord, Korean/Thai over-borrowing, the Lehman's Shock) and the Japanese public will believe this version, broadcast daily by NHK, hook line and sinker. Here in Tokyo, there's definitely something wrong with the way the Japanese government is handling this situation. Today in my local park, it was hanami parties as usual with hundreds, of all ages, getting sloshed beneath the cherry blossom. I'm sure quite a few of them are soon to find out how fleeting life can be, thanks to the present Japanese government policy on Covid, rather than the cherry blossom.

I don't deny for a second that it can get very, very bad very quickly just as it has elsewhere. And I also don't deny the danger is that people will relax too much and so precipitate that. I'm simply saying that at the moment things are weirdly normal given the mayhem in Europe and the looming mayhem in the USA. Although clearly there hasn't been enough testing, by the same token and critically the hospitals are not in fact flooded with cases. In fact their admissions for flu are well down which indicates that something is working.And yes you are right about blaming foreigners but that unfortunately is what always happens in pandemics. Chinese people and even people who simply look like they might be Chinese in Europe, Australia and the US will confirm that.

Are the cherry blossoms out where you are then? I haven't seen them round here but I don't watch very carefully.

[Scipio]

Wangta, not supporting you, it's just that, the racist rants aside, I agree with the 'generality' of what you said. This present situation in Japan is post-Midway / 21st Century version. I Would like to add that Wage is the genuine article. I've visited Wage a few times in the past and he's the last the guy to bullshit you with fake pictures. If that's what it's like in central Honshu, then that's what it's like. My own experience, in east Tokyo, is more like yours. Luckily I've been working in a US insurance company that does a lot of business in China. In early January, some colleagues mentioned the 'unusual' activity happening with life insurance policies in Central China. From that, I got suspicious and started storing up on household necessities ( I've got enough couscous to feed the Algerian Army for 6 months and enough toilet paper to keep their bottoms clean while they eat that couscous). As my Caporal Chef used to always say, 'It's better to be too careful. If you are wrong in your caution, afterwards you look stupid. If you are wrong with your lack of caution, afterwards you are dead' - it sounds better in French. Some people posting on this thread about how Hunky dory Japan and the Japanese are in a time of crisis, especially if they have families dependent on them, should remember this; better to be stupid than dead. The wisest observation that Kurogane ever commented about the Japanese was, 'they turn on the twirl of a coin'. Hill Street Blues......Be Careful out there.

[wagyl]

It seems time for Japan to adopt what Australian supermarkets mostly have done off their own bat - put limits on essentials including toilet paper that everybody needs.

From what my spies tell me, even though the supermarkets may be imposing limits, and setting "seniors only hour" to help the vulnerable shop, the shelves are still empty. So limits per customer mean nothing in practice when nobody has any.

The gov has also identified certain groups - both organized crime and others organizing themselves into selfish bastard squads - that have cleaned out the supermarkets in order to shift the products for profit, in many cases overseas. They will be hammered.

I don't know that I would trust much that ex-Queensland policeman and "I exposed the Cabinet to coronavirus by being infected and meeting everyone" the Honourable [sic] Peter Dutton has to say.

[Wage Slave]

It seems time for Japan to adopt what Australian supermarkets mostly have done off their own bat - put limits on essentials including toilet paper that everybody needs.

From what my spies tell me, even though the supermarkets may be imposing limits, and setting "seniors only hour" to help the vulnerable shop, the shelves are still empty. So limits per customer mean nothing in practice when nobody has any.

Dumb as they are, they actually have thought of this. Amazingly, there are restrictions on toilet paper, masks and such. And even more amazingly things like masks are still almost always sold out. From what I hear though, if you are prepared to wait outside drugstores at 10:00 it is possible to buy limited quantities of masks, sanitiser etc.

[Russell]

And another article wondering why Japan is doing so well with the Corona virus...

Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

At the time of writing, Japan has just over 900 confirmed cases of coronavirus. That’s 900 cases recorded over a two-month period since the first person — a man who had traveled to Wuhan — was confirmed to have the disease while in a Japanese hospital between Jan. 10 and 15.

In Italy, the first case was recorded two weeks later than in Japan, on Jan. 23. Shortly after, 50,000 people were quarantined in a handful of towns in the Lombardy region. Then, it was the entire north. Now, the entire country is in quarantine, with over 40,000 confirmed cases and 3,600 dead.

In the U.S., New York has closed its bars and restaurants and California has imposed similarly wide-scale “shelter in place” restrictions on the movement of its people and the activities of its citizens.

Look around Tokyo now, and you’ll see no such scene has unfolded. Despite the cancellation of sports events, the closure of schools, and the shutting down of some, but not all, larger entertainment venues, much of Japan continues as normal. There is no quarantine and no enforced closures of bars or restaurants. Even clubs (easy places to get sick at the best of times) remain open.

If you want to eat ramen at 4 a.m., fine. If you get on the subway, you’ll see it slightly emptier, but still heaving. If you want to rent a car and drive from one end of the country and back again, do it — there’s nothing stopping you. Which means there’s very little stopping the spread of the disease either.

So why the difference? How has Japan seemingly escaped the spread of the coronavirus when other countries have suffered so badly?

When you look at the factors that have made the virus spread quickly and easily elsewhere, Japan meets all of the same criteria. It has close contact with China, where the disease originated. Its cities are vast and dense, people are crammed into small apartments and squeezed together on trains (more so than many other cities), and despite requests for people to stagger their commutes and attempt to telework, Tokyo, with its population of 38 million people, remains busy.

One reason that Italy has been hit so badly, according to the World Health Organization, is the age of its population: The country has the oldest average age in Europe, the second oldest in the world, and coronavirus disproportionately affects the elderly, whose immune systems may not be strong enough to stave off the pneumonia the virus causes. Here, Japan one-ups Italy, its population is the world’s oldest and is just as vulnerable.

A common factor behind the deaths recorded in China was smoking — those with already damaged lungs are more likely to succumb pneumonia. Here again, Japan triumphs in its vulnerability — the government still owns 33 percent of Japan Tobacco and legislation toward smoking here is extremely lax. In 2017, Japan had the highest rate of male smoking among the G7 nations.

And it’s not like Japan has placed strict measures on its citizens to keep the disease under control. It has neither imposed the level of quarantine we saw in China to curb the outbreak, nor has it been strict with its travel restrictions. Most travelers can still visit Japan, and those from restricted countries aren’t banned entirely, they are just asked to voluntarily self-isolate for 14 days.

So again you have to ask why the difference? How is Japan reporting such low numbers?

The cynical answer points to the country’s low testing rates, that Japan has recorded such a low number of cases precisely because it isn’t testing. Of course, a question mark hangs over the Olympics and whether the government is attempting to keep confirmed cases low so that the games proceed as planned.

Unlike South Korea, where we are seeing rigorous testing, and despite World Health Organization advice to “test, test, test,” Japan has stuck to a policy of testing only those with extended visible symptoms or a history of direct contact with those who have tested positive, attempting to isolate small clusters before they grow. New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more.

But if the government’s testing regime is a failure, surely we’d see evidence of the disease’s spread in other ways. Its presence would appear not as positive test results but in the guise of an overwhelmed health care system and overcrowded mortuaries. We have seen no such evidence.

Three trains of thought lead from here: conspiracy, good fortune and efficacy.

Conspiracy would suggest that there is a widespread cover up, that people are dying in their homes, untested and untreated, or being given false death records in hospital. It is, however, hard to believe that a nation’s worth of doctors would be, or could be, silent if the number of deaths we are seeing in Italy were occurring here. While an authoritarian government might dream of being able to control its population to that extent, the reality is unattainable; doctors would speak out to prevent deaths — we saw them speaking out in China, we’d see it here.

It is equally hard to get onboard the second train of thought: that Japan is simply fortunate. That the disease here just hasn’t spread in the way it has elsewhere due to a number of pre-existing conditions: relatively less social intimacy (bowing vs. shaking hands), an inclination to wear masks when sick that has existed since long before this coronavirus, already high rates of isolation amongst the elderly, and what little voluntary self-isolation and social distancing there is has meant that Japan is flattening its curve without a truly active attempt to.

Then there is the third option, that Japan’s “just enough” efforts, built upon those pre-existing conditions have simply worked. That targeted testing where needed has contained the disease where it has emerged; that early closure of mass events did do enough to prevent widespread contact of the infected with the healthy; and that decentralized efforts stemming from individuals and corporations (zero contact pizzas, everyone) have halted its spread without heavy-handed government directive. But “just enough” feels like an awfully precarious position to be in and without the coordinated efforts that have forced other populations to limit the spread of the virus, you have to ask: How long will the situation last?

The “critical” two-to-three week containment period proclaimed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of February has now come to an end and some schools are set to reopen. If you head out to places like Tokyo’s Shinjuku Station or Shibuya Crossing, you’ll see them packed.

We’re now enjoying a three-day weekend, and it is the start of hanami (cherry blossoms viewing) season, which is typically marked by large picnics and parties beneath the trees. Already Shinjuku Gyoen, one of the capital’s largest parks, is busy with people taking pictures and swarming close between the nascent blossoms.

While official hanami events have been banned, the practice is so ingrained in the culture that it is hard to imagine people showing such restraint as to cancel picnics in their entirety.

If Japan’s not yet seen the worst of the disease, and studies suggest that it is yet to, will this be the catalyst?

More

For some useful links, go to the original article.

[wangta]

It seems time for Japan to adopt what Australian supermarkets mostly have done off their own bat - put limits on essentials including toilet paper that everybody needs.

From what my spies tell me, even though the supermarkets may be imposing limits, and setting "seniors only hour" to help the vulnerable shop, the shelves are still empty. So limits per customer mean nothing in practice when nobody has any.

Dumb as they are, they actually have thought of this. Amazingly, there are restrictions on toilet paper, masks and such. And even more amazingly things like masks are still almost always sold out. From what I hear though, if you are prepared to wait outside drugstores at 10:00 it is possible to buy limited quantities of masks, sanitiser etc.

Oooh, you little racist, tarring all Aussies with the same brush by calling them 'dumb'. Virtue signalers have a way of tying themselves up into contradictory knots. I'd say and a lot of other people would too that it's 'dumb' as well as life threatening to refuse to test people for a virus that can kill so you can keep official numbers lower. Not talking about Oz here, sunshine.