What's up with the value of the YEN?

[legion]

when everyone starts predicting the yen can only go up

it's gotta go down

[gaijinpunch]

Punchy, I too scoffed, but the MOF mandarins have been running Japan since the war, so I made a note of it when he said it. And it's a lot closer to being true now then it was five years ago, wouldn't you say? Unless some kind of Black Swan event happens, like a collapse of the J-bond mkt, then 50 is on its way by 2013. Will you be ready? Are you ready now?

-catone
-to party, I mean.

I would say that yes it is closer than it was, since 120 > 70 > 50. However, other key notes like, "all time high/low" are key notes in the financial world. This place is barely sustainable as it is. As it goes lower, prices will deflate even more than they are (which is killing the place), larger companies will start moving more stuff off shore to offset the crazy prices, unemployment rises, etc. etc.

It's a slippery slope. I'm not saying we've hit the bottom and I don't think we'll go anywhere North until the US and Europe pulls their heads out of their asses, but if it goes to 50 (that's 33% stronger than it's strongest in history) something is going to pop, and the inevitable happens. Not sure exactly what that is, but Japan is a Jenga puzzle at the moment. One thing moves, and the proverbial game over screen appears.

when everyone starts predicting the yen can only go up

it's gotta go down

This.

[Catoneinutica]

I would say that yes it is closer than it was, since 120 > 70 > 50. However, other key notes like, "all time high/low" are key notes in the financial world. This place is barely sustainable as it is. As it goes lower, prices will deflate even more than they are (which is killing the place), larger companies will start moving more stuff off shore to offset the crazy prices, unemployment rises, etc. etc.

It's a slippery slope. I'm not saying we've hit the bottom and I don't think we'll go anywhere North until the US and Europe pulls their heads out of their asses, but if it goes to 50 (that's 33% stronger than it's strongest in history) something is going to pop, and the inevitable happens. Not sure exactly what that is, but Japan is a Jenga puzzle at the moment. One thing moves, and the proverbial game over screen appears.



This.

This would be a good topic for a poll:
What's your opinion of the likelihood of JPY/USD as of 11/1/13?

-Very likely; I'm buying JGBs left and right.
-50/50
-possible but doubtful
-get the fuck out of here
-the diameter of Masako-sama's nipples

I'm going with 50/50 and...that last one? I have empirical data.

[Russell]

A Finance Ministry bureaucrat who now works as a "consultant" told us in 2008 that 50 JPY/USD would happen within the next five years, and as we get closer to 2013 events seem to be validating his prediction.

50 JPY/USD??? You heard it first here:
http://www.fuckedgaijin.com/forums/showpost.php?p=278830&postcount=589
(should have become a Finance Ministry bureaucrat...)

Someone wanna know when the rapture will be?

[matsuki]

[Catoneinutica]

50 JPY/USD??? You heard it first here:
http://www.fuckedgaijin.com/forums/showpost.php?p=278830&postcount=589
(should have become a Finance Ministry bureaucrat...)

Someone wanna know when the rapture will be?

When smellovision replaces television? I can only speak to events over which I have volition. When will Masako-sama experience her next rapture? That I can answer.

I gorked up the wording of my abortive poll above. What I meant to ask was: What are the odds of the Yen hitting 50 against the USD within two years. I'm going with a bold prediction of even odds.

[tone]

what makes you think they will let it drop lower (small bias in seeing it return to 85-90 at least)

[Russell]

what makes you think they will let it drop lower (small bias in seeing it return to 85-90 at least)

Because they don't have enough money to prop up the US$ or the Euro.

[Russell]

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

What are the odds of the Yen hitting 50 against the USD within two years. I'm going with a bold prediction of even odds.

Bold, indeed. We are talking about an evaluation of unprecedented scale here...But, with Japan's biggest neighbor looking this way with a sly grin and asking the Mandarin equivalent of "Who's Your Daddy?" it's becoming increasingly likely the Land of the Rising Sunk is in for some payback over past actions (that never really occurred anyway...). I guess I should STFU and deliver a verdict:
50/USpe$o in two years=500-1
50/USpe$o in five years=25-1
I guess in 2013, the yen will hover in the 65-75/USpe$o range.
Don't know what the fuck I'm judging this on, though...

[gaijinpunch]

[quote="Catoneinutica"]This would be a good topic for a poll:
What's your opinion of the likelihood of JPY/USD as of 11/1/13?

-Very likely]

Well, there is no empirical data for what markets will do... hence crashes and rallies. I doubt anyone is going to buy JGBs, but you never know.

[Russell]

[SIZE="3"]Japan is fighting a losing battle on yen: UK Fund manager[/SIZE]

LONDON: Japan's yen will eventually rise to record highs near 60 against the dollar to help cancel out the current account surplus despite the country's best efforts to curb currency strength, a UK-based fund manager said.

More...

[gaijinpunch]

No shit, I had a dream that the yen went to 60 on the first two days of my vacation (when I was away from the computer). No dream of mine ever comes true. Hopefully this one won't either.

[IparryU]

No shit, I had a dream that the yen went to 60 on the first two days of my vacation (when I was away from the computer). No dream of mine ever comes true. Hopefully this one won't either.

i had a dream that the USD went shit vs JPY and fucked my life up...

[gaijinpunch]

i had a dream that the USD went shit vs JPY and fucked my life up...

Which part of that is a dream?

[tone]

c'mon 85!! here we go, big cascading sell off, here we go!!

its like when i bring up how nice it would be to hit 85-90 most japanese people feel the high yen is a point of pride, not realizing its cutting into a lot of businesses here - and no one i know is really bohemian enough to take 6 month round the world trips and benefit in the major way of using a yen based bank account to fund travel abroad where shit is cheap right now with the yen up so high.

[matsuki]

c'mon 85!! here we go, big cascading sell off, here we go!!

its like when i bring up how nice it would be to hit 85-90 most japanese people feel the high yen is a point of pride, not realizing its cutting into a lot of businesses here - and no one i know is really bohemian enough to take 6 month round the world trips and benefit in the major way of using a yen based bank account to fund travel abroad where shit is cheap right now with the yen up so high.

Well, my tour business should benefit from this some....actually, none of my sales are USD anymore so the further it dives, the better it is for me.

[Samurai_Jerk]

its like when i bring up how nice it would be to hit 85-90 most japanese people feel the high yen is a point of pride

You must know some real morons. Most J-people I talk to know it's bad for Japan and for most of Japan's industries.

Well, my tour business should benefit from this some....actually, none of my sales are USD anymore so the further it dives, the better it is for me.

It's sort of a double-edged sword for me. It probably hurts our sales but the money we do make is a lot more valuable to me and goes a lot further to paying down my student loans. If it goes to 60 though, everyone but FX traders betting against the dollar will be uber-fucked.

[tone]

You must know some real morons. Most J-people I talk to know it's bad for Japan and for most of Japan's industries.

yeah i know. maybe they know somewhere in their brain there are downfalls, but outweighing that seems to be the pride that despite not really knowing that part of the yens rise was outside speculators, that its somehow validating japan as a noble place, worthy of a valuable currency. and so it seems to tweak at that way of thinking when i say, i wish it would settle at like 85-90

[Samurai_Jerk]

The US Treasury on Tuesday criticized Japan's interventions to halt the yen's rise in the last six months, saying they were unnecessary and that Tokyo would do better to strengthen its domestic economy and competitiveness.
In a report to Congress on foreign exchange markets, the Treasury said it had supported the interventions to stabilize the yen in the wake of the devastating March 11 earthquake-tsunami disaster.
But interventions that began in August and went through November, aimed at halting the yen's rise amid economic turmoil in Europe and the United States, were unjustified, the Treasury said.
"In contrast to the G-7 joint post-earthquake intervention in March, the United States did not support these interventions," it said.
"It is worth noting that these operations took place at a time when foreign exchange market activity and risk aversion were being predominantly influenced by financial developments elsewhere in the global economy that were impacting all of the major currencies."

-snip-

"Rather than reacting to domestic 'strong yen' concerns by intervening to try to influence the exchange rate, Japan should take fundamental and thoroughgoing steps to increase the dynamism of the domestic economy, increase the competitiveness of Japanese firms -- including those in utilities and services -- and raise potential growth."

source

[Greji]

If it goes to 60 though, everyone but FX traders betting against the dollar will be uber-fucked.

I hope it does and even higher, at which point I will put in a bid to purchase California.....

[Catoneinutica]

A prediction for 2012 someone at Zerohedge pulled out of his ass:

-The Yen will (finally) weaken. The low for the USDYEN will be 76.5 the high will be 90. (It's a great short). The problem for Japan will be its 200% debt to GDP. Global investors will shun the Japanese bond markets. Ten-year yields will rise to over 2% as a result. While Japan has gotten away with its excessive debt for years and global investors always had reasons to park cash in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), there will be no reasons left in 2012.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-things-will-happen

[tone]

i read that also

so whats the result look like if japan cant sell as much debt through bonds

[damn name]

The result is the same as always.

The boys in the government print up some bonds, then the boys at the central bank buy up what they need to by pressing some keys on a keyboard to create some money to "pay" for the bonds. It's easy!

[IparryU]

A prediction for 2012 someone at Zerohedge pulled out of his ass:

-The Yen will (finally) weaken. The low for the USDYEN will be 76.5 the high will be 90. (It's a great short). The problem for Japan will be its 200% debt to GDP. Global investors will shun the Japanese bond markets. Ten-year yields will rise to over 2% as a result. While Japan has gotten away with its excessive debt for years and global investors always had reasons to park cash in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), there will be no reasons left in 2012.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-things-will-happen

i read elsewhere that the USDYEN will be 50 or so...

[Russell]

i read elsewhere that the USDYEN will be 50 or so...

That was my prediction. Believe at your own risk...

[Coligny]

That was my prediction. Believe at your own risk...

And whut exactly would that mean ? (aside from cheap IPods...)

[matsuki]

And whut exactly would that mean ? (aside from cheap IPods...)

You should furikomi me all your yens to my US bank account until it rises up to 200yen per dollar.

[gaijinpunch]

As I was just a young whipper snapper back in the late 80's to early 90's, I can't say w/ any sense of certainty. What seems to scare the fuck out of me now is that in Japan's case, everything seems fine... until it's not. 76 to 90 through a year would be very good for a lot of people as it would add some volatility. I still think back in my mind it will never weaken to normal... it's either crushing or collapsing... the latter being pretty painful...even to dollar guys like myself.

[IparryU]

You should furikomi me all your yens to my US bank account when it rises to 200yen per dollar and I keep that in my bank so I can go back home, booze my life away, and buy herds of goats for Greji.

FTFY