What's up with the value of the YEN?

[matsuki]

FTFY

It only works if you furikomi back to yen....and we already know what Coligny would do with it...

http://www.moderncat.net/2008/10/08/unbelievable-cat-friendly-house-design-from-japan/

[IparryU]

It only works if you furikomi back to yen....and we already know what Coligny would do with it...

http://www.moderncat.net/2008/10/08/unbelievable-cat-friendly-house-design-from-japan/

i think that and this

[Coligny]

and a Merdessesse Bemz
and a harem of realdollz...
and buying the rights to all Yua Aida's movies to re-release them uncensored...

And a lot of paper tissuz

really a lot...

(oh... and a roomba too...)

BTW, awesome link Choko... i'm off to zee hardware store...

[matsuki]

and buying the rights to all Yua Aida's movies to re-release them uncensored...

Why stop there? Hire her ass for for a new extended JAV entitled Frenchie Fecchi

BTW, awesome link Choko... i'm off to zee hardware store...

It is a pretty awesome house

[IparryU]

[Cyka UchuuJin]

So the yen finally broke the 80 barrier on the USD today. Is this the start of a real weakening or is it just a blip?

[Mock Cockpit]

So the yen finally broke the 80 barrier on the USD today. Is this the start of a real weakening or is it just a blip?

Took the post right outta my fingers! In answer to the question, fucked if I know.

[gaijinpunch]

It is probably due to the Greek bailout. I'm not blowing myself just yet. Who knows what will happen.... I think the last few years have taught us that economists know jack shit.

[tone]

come on effing 90

[Cyka UchuuJin]

It is probably due to the Greek bailout. I'm not blowing myself just yet. Who knows what will happen.... I think the last few years have taught us that economists know jack shit.

good point. i think it's a blip. can't really see it staying up.

[Russell]

So the yen finally broke the 80 barrier on the USD today. Is this the start of a real weakening or is it just a blip?

Looks like the 50 level that I predicted a while ago will not be reached.

There are three factors driving the Yen down:

1. The printing press was started,
2. Japan invests a huge amount of money in the European bailout,
3. The perception of a trade deficit, as a result of the increased imports of oil.

[Cyka UchuuJin]

After reading all the financial reports this morning, I think this is temporary. The Olympus board announcement, the pressure to kill off the TEPCO board, the Elpida bankrupticy announcement...all temporary.

Just a blip. But a nice little blip for forex traders to play with for a couple days.

[gaijinpunch]

I could see it staying between 79-81 more than I can see it going back down to 75-76 which I think was artificial (well, sort of), or even going up too much more at any alarming rate. It's no secret that it really hasn't been yen strength for the last 3 years as much as it's been dollar/euro weakness. As those places start to pretend to fix their problems then yen will come back in line.

Again though... who knows. Japan could keep the quantitative easing going which will weaken the currency. The Olympus and TEPCO issues are pretty long-term though. Both are going to leave a shitty taste in ones mouth for a while.

[legion]

I think it is going to slide

until the financial year is over

[gaijinpunch]

I think it is going to slide

until the financial year is over

End of March you mean?

[FG Lurker]

Looks like the 50 level that I predicted a while ago will not be reached.

There are three factors driving the Yen down:

1. The printing press was started,
2. Japan invests a huge amount of money in the European bailout,
3. The perception of a trade deficit, as a result of the increased imports of oil.

Agreed. The main cause of this was the BOJ announcing an inflation target of 1% and indicating they will take actual steps to make that happen. Considering how stubborn deflation has been here it could take quite some time to overcome that and produce real sustainable price increases.

Along with the BOJ announcement we have a trade deficit caused by natural gas imports for generating electricity and a slow trickle of news is starting to appear about the unsustainability of Japan's debt load.

What happens from now depends on what happens elsewhere in the world and on how much backbone the BOJ actually has.

[matsuki]

I just hope it stays in the 70's/low 80's, I scrapped every one of my export businesses and have been enjoying the imports.

[FG Lurker]

I just hope it stays in the 70's/low 80's, I scrapped every one of my export businesses and have been enjoying the imports.

It's not going to stay in the 70s/low 80s. The question is when will it move towards 90, 100, and beyond? The bigger question is how far beyond will it go?

Japan has a debt to GDP ratio over over 225% and a yearly deficit of well over 10% of GDP. About half of the initial budget is funded by debt and generally all of the supplementary budgets are debt funded. Gov't 10 year bond rates are ~1% and shorter term bonds are lower, but even with these incredibly low rates something between 40% and 50% of all tax receipts are used to pay interest on debt. What happens when rates need to go up? Even at 2% Japan would be near default.

I don't want to be all doom and gloom about this but I don't see much of a way out for Japan with regards to this massive debt.

[matsuki]

It's not going to stay in the 70s/low 80s. The question is when will it move towards 90, 100, and beyond? The bigger question is how far beyond will it go?

Japan has a debt to GDP ratio over over 225% and a yearly deficit of well over 10% of GDP. About half of the initial budget is funded by debt and generally all of the supplementary budgets are debt funded. Gov't 10 year bond rates are ~1% and shorter term bonds are lower, but even with these incredibly low rates something between 40% and 50% of all tax receipts are used to pay interest on debt. What happens when rates need to go up? Even at 2% Japan would be near default.

I don't want to be all doom and gloom about this but I don't see much of a way out for Japan with regards to this massive debt.

Long term, I agree with your assessment...but as you said, it's a question of timing. If, after 3~4 years I need to switch back to exporting, I may do so...but I don't see it happening in the neat year or so.

[FG Lurker]

Long term, I agree with your assessment...but as you said, it's a question of timing. If, after 3~4 years I need to switch back to exporting, I may do so...but I don't see it happening in the neat year or so.

I don't agree with everything this guy says, and English clearly isn't his first language, but he does give a pretty good overview of the situation.

There are many articles out there that talk about similar things but generally only a bit at a time.

[matsuki]

I don't agree with everything this guy says, and English clearly isn't his first language, but he does give a pretty good overview of the situation.

There are many articles out there that talk about similar things but generally only a bit at a time.

Interesting....he's predicting the change in the next 2 years. I better make the most of the time I have! hahaha

[gaijinpunch]

The question is when will it move towards 90, 100, and beyond?

While I've bitched about the strong yen (I'm paid in dollars) I've not wined too much about it. Deflation has helped, and the stronger the yen the more my company makes. It's not totally offset but my bonuses are better. The scary thing though is, will it stick around 100 for 10 years, or will the shit hit the fan and then yen go north of 150. That's really the sad thing. I would like to see it ease "back to normal" rather than pop and the whole fucking ceiling crash down.

I know the bond markets go nuts if interest rates rise. Not sure about the rest of them (after the first 6 months) but my guess is there would be some carnage.

[legion]

End of March you mean?

yeah, Toyota and co repatriate their money, then it strengthens again to allow the domestic manufacturers to go shopping again for parts

[gaijinpunch]

yeah, Toyota and co repatriate their money, then it strengthens again to allow the domestic manufacturers to go shopping again for parts

You gotta assume they did most of what needed to be done at the last intervention... specifically to thwart exactly what you stated. If they repatriate their money, generally it strengthens... not weakens, a la last year's Earthquake.

[FG Lurker]

You gotta assume they did most of what needed to be done at the last intervention... specifically to thwart exactly what you stated. If they repatriate their money, generally it strengthens... not weakens, a la last year's Earthquake.

The strengthening after last year's quake was pure speculation. The FX market in general is actually driven mostly by speculation (as are commodity markets, but that's a different topic.) There is approx US$600 billion traded in the JPY every day in FX markets. The amount of JPY traded per year in FX is more than 25x Japan's entire GDP.

[cstaylor]

I don't want to be all doom and gloom about this but I don't see much of a way out for Japan with regards to this massive debt.

Who owns the debt? Elderly Japanese.
Solution: Government-sponsored "ore-ore sagi" campaign.

[dimwit]

Who owns the debt? Elderly Japanese.
Solution: Government-sponsored "ore-ore sagi" campaign.

That's what postal savings accounts are.

[FG Lurker]

Who owns the debt? Elderly Japanese.
Solution: Government-sponsored "ore-ore sagi" campaign.

The BOJ will ramp up the printing presses to monetize the debt. (The debt is already partially monetized, it'll just become a lot more so.)

Should "fix" the deflation problem... Hopefully the medicine doesn't kill the patient.

[legion]

You gotta assume they did most of what needed to be done at the last intervention... specifically to thwart exactly what you stated. If they repatriate their money, generally it strengthens... not weakens, a la last year's Earthquake.

there you go applying logic to a country which famously has an ambivalent relationship with logic

BOJ policy decisions are probably made following a paid for BJ

[gaijinpunch]

The strengthening after last year's quake was pure speculation.

It was based on speculation that yen would be repatriated to rebuild --- not exactly a stupid bet. And, as it turned out, it was the right one. The short term after the quake was not hard to figure out what happened. Bonds went up, Nikkei tanked -- literally in seconds.

Fun Fact: The strongest the yen was prior to the 2011 record was days after the Hanshin Earthquake.

there you go applying logic to a country which famously has an ambivalent relationship with logic

The country no, but you gotta think that any one in charge of a large corporation domicile in Japan has to read between the lines. IE -- BOJ is going to intervene, it's time to straighten your books out. They really only need the FX rate to be X/Y at a single moment every quarter or so. I own a company that employs two people and even I was smart enough to do that.