What's up with the value of the YEN?

[IparryU]

When USD:JPY hits 85~87 it will take a dip than go on up after that. Get out of JPY but keep enough to pay some stuffs off.

USDJPY Hourly.jpg

USDJPY Weekly.jpg

[legion]

A chart with small green numbers

It must predict the future

The Japanese can fail at inflation, numbers do not account for human nature.

[Dreamy_Peach]

The way Abe was talking it was a real Christmas gift to sell the yen over the past two weeks.

Even though I can't vote here; if I could, I surely would.

[gaijinpunch]

久しぶりの85 handle.
Apparently the huge resistance is 84.5, and 88.5. Guess it's all up to PM Abraham now.

[matsuki]

I stand by my "when it falls, it plummets" theory...when the yen drops, all those suckers....err, investors, are going to wake up pull out at the same time. Financial tsunami of 2013...maybe they can time it to be 13-3-11

Also...my importing business will begin to suck...time to switch the focus back on exports =(

[gaijinpunch]

Also...my importing business will begin to suck...time to switch the focus back on exports =(

Yeah, I'm an exports guy. Tried a few importing ideas that didn't really take... although, I didn't try that hard.

Hope you're right though. I have a bet w/ someone that when it gets to 100 I have to orally satisfy myself, and I'm dying for the excuse!

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

I have a bet w/ someone that when it gets to 100 I have to orally satisfy myself, and I'm dying for the excuse!

You have to wait to do that?
Shit...if I could do that, you'd never get me out of the house....

[wuchan]

according the the NY times we are back to 100/1 and we should all be buying up tokyo property!

Japan is a buyers’ market, said Erik Oskamp, the owner of Akasaka Real Estate in Tokyo. “Owning property in Tokyo is probably half or a third of the monthly price than if you rent,” he said, “and still people are not buying; that’s how depressed the market is. You always have to explain to people, ‘We’re still here, Japan still exists.’

LANGUAGES AND CURRENCY

Japanese; yen (1 yen = $0.01)

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/great ... .html?_r=0

[matsuki]

LOL, I'll buy up Tokyo property when 1yen = $0.001

[gaijinpunch]

I was having a debate on a photography forum about the cost of items in Japan vs. the US...specifically Canon products, and how they were more expensive across the board in Japan. Some nut bag went off about how I was wrong, but prepended his statement with, "If you look at the exchange rate as 100 yen/$1, which it effectively is when you live here, you can..."

I asked him what reality he lived in. No response. This was back when it was about 77/$1.

[legion]

according the the NY times we are back to 100/1 and we should all be buying up tokyo property!

Japan is a buyers’ market, said Erik Oskamp, the owner of Akasaka Real Estate in Tokyo. “Owning property in Tokyo is probably half or a third of the monthly price than if you rent,” he said, “and still people are not buying; that’s how depressed the market is. You always have to explain to people, ‘We’re still here, Japan still exists.’

LANGUAGES AND CURRENCY

Japanese; yen (1 yen = $0.01)

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/great ... .html?_r=0

I think he means paying off a loan is less of a monthly outlay than renting, but it is unlikely to be a half or a third, obviously everyone's situation is different.

[wuchan]

according the the NY times we are back to 100/1 and we should all be buying up tokyo property!

Japan is a buyers’ market, said Erik Oskamp, the owner of Akasaka Real Estate in Tokyo. “Owning property in Tokyo is probably half or a third of the monthly price than if you rent,” he said, “and still people are not buying; that’s how depressed the market is. You always have to explain to people, ‘We’re still here, Japan still exists.’

LANGUAGES AND CURRENCY

Japanese; yen (1 yen = $0.01)

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/great ... .html?_r=0

I think he means paying off a loan is less of a monthly outlay than renting, but it is unlikely to be a half or a third, obviously everyone's situation is different.

he is a real estate agent trying to sell shit. Nothing more, nothing less.

The chick that wrote the pice (of shit) featured a newly built multi-million dollar home that has been in the J-papers because it is already falling apart. pick up the asahi, have some uni kid on an internship with one year of j-lang study translate, produce "news". Email an American in the field and we add cred.

[IparryU]

I was having a debate on a photography forum about the cost of items in Japan vs. the US...specifically Canon products, and how they were more expensive across the board in Japan. Some nut bag went off about how I was wrong, but prepended his statement with, "If you look at the exchange rate as 100 yen/$1, which it effectively is when you live here, you can..."

I asked him what reality he lived in. No response. This was back when it was about 77/$1.

The idiot's guide to understanding that counting yen is like counting pennies?

I wouldn't even dare to publicize some bullshit like that.

I met Eric quite a few times at the ACCJ and various other networking events. Pretty cool dutch guy and was really irked by my old boss (who is a complete douche bag). But this article was just a PR attempt... look at Pacific Asset Management on Japan Today and Gaijinpot... yikes..

[IparryU]

The Annotated Kyle Bass 'Short-Japan' Thesis

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/26/2012 21:17 -0500

CDS Japan Kyle Bass Kyle Bass Monetary Policy Sovereign CDS Yield Curve

With JPY bleeding lower once again overnight extending to 28-month lows against the USD (and the long-end of the JGB curve starting to show some signs of anxiety), it is perhaps timely to revisit Kyle Bass's five key reasons why Japan is the epicenter of the world's failed monetary policy experiment. In this excellent and much-requested summary 8-minute clip, Bass summarizes his Japan thesis and destroys several of the myths that talking-heads like to assign to the so-called widow-maker trade.

JPY/USD...(higher = weaker JPY)
<image in source>

The long-end of the Japanese yield curve is at near-record steeps...
<image in source>

<video in source>

Bass's exact positioning is unknown but he has commented on using sovereign CDS and critically has not espoused a short Japanese equity position directly - preferring to focus on the debt problems.

(h/t InformedTrades)

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-2 ... pan-thesis

[matsuki]

87.65....fuuuuuuuuuuuuu

[gaijinpunch]

88.20 on the weekend. Wonder if this is that retraction everyone was talking about. If I listened to the jackasses on TV, I'd have gotten short at 85 and lost a lot of money.

[cstaylor]

It was Aso on one of those political commentary shows this weekend throwing a wrench into everything by making relatively definitive statements about BOJ intervention. Just goes to show that Mori-ha is still running the show with all of these retreads.

Funny thing though, Suga is our local representative.

[matsuki]

So when all the BS and fluff gets exposed here, we looking at 300円/＄ again?

[cstaylor]

So when all the BS and fluff gets exposed here, we looking at 300円/＄ again?

Nah, I'm hoping it's headed back into < 80 territory.

[matsuki]

That would make me verrrrrrrry happpy

[Coligny]

That would make me verrrrrrrry happpy

I'm prepping the cameras for the muney shot, just in case...

[gaijinpunch]

89...

Wonder if that short opportunity was between 88.2 and 87.5.

[matsuki]

89...

Wonder if that short opportunity was between 88.2 and 87.5.

[Cyka UchuuJin]

I'm totally lost with the rates. Not good as I've got to set an exchange rate for my JPY price list for the year.

I'm kinda of the opinion that this is all temporary, I mean, Japan goes through PMs like loo roll, how long is the Abe gonna stay in office this time??

[Coligny]

you realize that joking aboot loo roll while speaking of Abe give you a 2x combo point value for your final score ?

[Russell]

I'm totally lost with the rates. Not good as I've got to set an exchange rate for my JPY price list for the year.

I'm kinda of the opinion that this is all temporary, I mean, Japan goes through PMs like loo roll, how long is the Abe gonna stay in office this time??

When deciding on your price list, assume a 125 Yen to the US Dollar exchange rate. That is the value "as it is supposed to be" (=how it used to be in "better times").

[Cyka UchuuJin]

Our export price list is in Euro, so that's the one that I'm looking at. It's kinda seeming like 120 to 1 is where the rate is headed though!

Do you really think it's going to hit 125 to the USD this year? That's a massive leap!

[Russell]

Our export price list is in Euro, so that's the one that I'm looking at. It's kinda seeming like 120 to 1 is where the rate is headed though!

Do you really think it's going to hit 125 to the USD this year? That's a massive leap!

I think 125 to the USD is their final goal, because it reminds them politicians of the "better" times. Not sure whether they reach it this year; it very much depends on "the markets".

The Euro is a different story. It used to be in the range of 160 to the Euro, if I remember well. There is too much uncertainty over the EU currently to make that a reality in the near term (=this year).

Back to your price list, it all depends on your competition, and how much the demand for your products will be affected by your price increases. If you can afford it, I would take a conservative stance.

[Cyka UchuuJin]

It'll certainly remind ME of better times...ie when I had my Horie apartment for 120.000 yen a month back in 2005!

The Euro is currently testing 120, which is our threshold for profit. It was about 96 when we set the list last year.

You're right though, there is way too much uncertainty in the Eurozone for it to be easy to make any kind of accurate forecast right now. Which sucks! I think I am leaning towards setting a very conservatively high exchange rate and then doing mid-year discount campaigns if need be.

[Russell]

It'll certainly remind ME of better times...ie when I had my Horie apartment for 120.000 yen a month back in 2005!

The Euro is currently testing 120, which is our threshold for profit. It was about 96 when we set the list last year.

You're right though, there is way too much uncertainty in the Eurozone for it to be easy to make any kind of accurate forecast right now. Which sucks! I think I am leaning towards setting a very conservatively high exchange rate and then doing mid-year discount campaigns if need be.

That seems to make a lot of sense. Depending on the product, you could give it a "flair of quality" by refraining from discount campaigns, though.

BTW, the Gouda cheese I have been buying for a long time, is still at the price it was when the Euro was at its high.

Those Japanese importers suck big ass.