Asahi: Inaction will cause half of Tokyo population to contract new flu
More than half the population of the Tokyo metropolitan area could contract a new strain of influenza if nothing is done after one carrier brings the virus to the capital, according to a study. The study by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases calls for all schools to close and 40 percent of commuters to stay at home to keep the infection rate at 25 percent or lower, the level the central government envisions in dealing with new strains of influenza. The institute said the spread of the virus can be further contained if more people stay home until the danger passes. "The key to prevent the spread of infection is the degree of measures to restrict people from going out," said Yasushi Ohkusa, a senior research scientist at the institute who took part in the study... The institute came up with a scenario in which a company employee is infected with a new strain of flu while overseas and returns home to Hachioji, Tokyo, on the third day of infection. The employee develops symptoms after reporting to work in Tokyo's Marunouchi district on the fourth day. After a hospital diagnoses the employee with a new type of flu, local governments start taking action on the seventh day. The spread of the flu will reach its peak around the 25th day, according to the scenario. The study predicts that 51.6 percent of residents in the Tokyo metropolitan area will contract the flu if no measures are taken...more...
