Japanese GDP Growth Off Track

[Mulboyne]

Concern Over World Economic Growth

Concern over the softening of global economic expansion heightened yesterday with new figures showing growth slipping in Europe and slowing sharply in Japan while the US trade deficit hit record levels.

Japanese second-quarter growth rose only 0.4 per cent in real terms against 1.6 per cent in the previous quarter. Nominal GDP fell 0.3 per cent, the first fall in five quarters. The Tokyo stock market slid to a three-month low. The main culprit behind the reverse in Japan was a lack of business investment, which remained flat in the quarter.

Japan's economic recovery 'flattered by earlier figures'

The apparent sharp fall in the speed of Japan's economic recovery is shocking only for those who took evidence of its helter-skelter growth in previous quarters at face value. Many economists did not.
Peter Morgan, economist at HSBC in Tokyo, has long argued that gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter of 2003 and the first quarter of this year - which showed the economy racing along at 6 per cent-plus - were flattering the true picture.
...Richard Jerram, economist at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo, says one should not get too worked up about the apparent swings in quarterly data.
"Recent history has been generally a good quarter followed by a bad quarter," he says. "But when those figures are revised, they usually lop off the peaks and the troughs and it looks a lot smoother."
Mr Jerram considers the underlying picture of Japanese growth pretty much unchanged by yesterday's figures.

[Taro Toporific]

Concern Over World Economic Growth

Concern over the softening of global economic expansion heightened yesterday with new figures showing growth slipping in Europe and slowing sharply in Japan/...

Never fear. Japanese metal is here!

Good showing at Athens Olympics could boost Japan's GDP: report
Kyodo
Wednesday August 18, 9:39 PM -- The Japanese economy may grow by a maximum 6.4 percent in 2004 if the number of medals won by Japanese athletes at the Athens Olympics increases, according to a research report released by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd. on Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs researched the correlation between the number of medals Japanese athletes earned in each of the past 12 Olympics Games, starting with the 1956 Melbourne Olympics, and growth in gross domestic product in each of the 12 Olympic years.
If Japanese athletes win 26 medals at the Athens Olympics as forecast by Goldman Sachs before the games started, Japan's real GDP for 2004 will grow 4.6 percent, the Japanese unit of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. of the United States said.
But if the number of medals rises to 33, the growth rate is likely to expand to 6.4 percent, a level posted in 1988 when Japan's economy was flying high due to the asset-inflated bubble.
According to the report, Japan's economy tends to expand significantly during Olympic years because corporate and consumer sentiment receives a boost and employees becoming more willing to work, inspired by the medal-winning performances of Japanese athletes.
"But productivity may decline as workers sleep less to watch Olympics events on television all night due to time differences," said a Goldman Sachs analyst.

[Mulboyne]

[Mulboyne]

Japanese Services Industry Unexpectedly Shrinks

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's service industry activity contracted for a second month in three in July as companies reduced spending on computer software, telecommunications and financial services.

The tertiary index fell 0.8 percent from June, the trade ministry said in Tokyo. A Bloomberg survey of 38 economists forecast a median 0.2 percent increase. The all-industry index, which includes industrial production and construction, fell 0.6 percent.

..."There are lots of factors clouding the outlook,'' said Shuji Shirota, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Tokyo. ``The effect of a hike in pension premiums from the fall will inevitably bring forth a slowdown in consumption, and that will hurt demand for services as well.''

Japanese households unexpectedly cut spending in July and unemployment rose, reports last month showed, adding to signs Japan's economic recovery is faltering.

Spending by households headed by a salaried worker fell for a third month, dropping 2.5 percent from June. The jobless rate rose to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent, the first increase since January.

Companies are hiring more part-time and temporary workers to save costs, keeping down wages, which have risen in just three months of the past three years. Part-time and temporary workers often receive fewer benefits and most don't receive bonuses.