Morgan Stanley: Friendly Intentions, Hostile Debates by Robert Feldman
Businesspeople and bureaucrats have a common interest in reform. They also baffle each other, due to differences in information, interpretation, and incentives. In some recent discussions, the bafflement has turned sour, and the atmosphere hostile...In my view, an economic crisis seems unlikely....But political crisis is a possibility.
Indeed, the shrillness of the anti-Koizumi, anti-Postal Reform forces has increased in recent weeks. Perhaps their rhetoric is mere kabuki, aimed at avoiding political responsibility in their districts for a reform that will hurt some of their support groups...If not, then the political battle could result in a showdown between Koizumi and the anti-reform forces...Because of the grim prospects for everyone in the political world if a showdown forces Koizumi to dissolve the Diet, I believe such an outcome will be avoided. Ergo, the rest of the reform agenda will get back on track.