Fucked Yen : Dollar Oil Politics

[Catoneinutica]

Let the good times roll!

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3451136.ece

"Jim Rogers - who co-founded the now closed Quantum Fund with George Soros - told 750 global fund managers in Tokyo today that, America is “completely out of control”, there will be a 20-year bull market in commodities and that prices will be in turmoil.

"And he also warned that it “made sense” if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.

"Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would “explode” in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce."

[Jack]

American motors are in a way different position to Japanese, both will feel the crunch when it comes to rising oil prices but the trouble with Ford and GM is most of their profit comes from internal sales within the United States. Jack is fucking wrong about this almighty motors profit prediction (surprise ! surprise !) simply because GM sales to India Indonesia or some fucking place where people live in huts and hang off trains really won't mean shit when it comes to making real profit and keeping American workers employed, internal sales and US consumer spending is the real key. .

Actually it does make a difference. When you look at the economy in aggregate it doesn't matter what is exported so long as something is exported. That would create jobs. perhaps jobs would be lost at GM but others created at Lockheed Martin, General Dynamic and Boeing. Bottom line is lower U.S dollar means greater exports and with many third world countries becoming richer that means the world at large can buy a lot more American products. I am not worried at all about a recession so long as the dollar keeps tanking.

By the way, remember this: The yen will rise to 90 to the dollar this year.

[Mike Oxlong]

remember this

Take?!

[nottu]

[Jack]

Would you like to bet on that?

Yup. That's so easy I could take that bet in my sleep.

[Buraku]

Would you like to bet on that?

I would not bet against it, I think Jack might be correct here and remember the Dollar is no longer stable and its starting to free fall, who knows where it can go next - down ? up ? back down again ? Bernanke is well schooled in the business but he's got no feel for it, Greenspan made some mistakes but he was still the Obi-Wan Kenobi of the economic world that knew how to fight the storm, Bernanke lacks that extra edge Greenspan had. The 90 mark might be the perfect time to make the switch if you've got large savings but do not miss other opportunities. Many stocks are looking ugly, I would only invest in place that normally do good during the storm and companies that have greater transparency. The Middle East can always fuck things up, Iran and the US just don't get along. We are spending millions of dollars building comfortable homes for Mucktada Al Sadr fucks, to keep his fucking buddies happy in Iraq and try to keep a lid on things but back home in the USA families are watching their homes get emptied by the corrupt banks. Commodities like Gold have been a real winner for some, with Gold rising 40% the past year, people who opened Euro accounts also watched assets surge and who knows maybe some Anti-American, might just might start selling his Oil in Euro prices. US consumer confidence is also taking a kicking and this in turn could have a negative impact on Japan.

[Buraku]

Japan stocks down 2 pct, hit by yen, economy fears

Growing worries about the U.S. economy weighed on the Japanese market after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned about the health of small U.S. banks, which hurt financial shares such as Mizuho Financial Group

[nottu]

[Jack]

You're on. What are you drinking?

Make mine a double Macallan 18 years old neat.

The USD at 104.1 yen today. The drop to 90 will be very quick and it may rebound thereafter and that will spell trouble for Japan because it exports so much. I have a crazy idea which is that everfy Japanese family should go out and borrow hyaku man yen. The only way Japan will get back on track is by incresing the money supply and getting inflation up to 4% to 5%. What's happening in Japan has no precedence. BOJ is trying to devalue the yen but the market is going against him and that's holding back the economy.

[nottu]

[FG Lurker]

Totally OT...

Make mine a double Macallan 18 years old neat.

I used to be a big Macallan fan but Suntory seems to be trying to squeeze as much money out of them as possible and quality has dropped -- a lot. The 25yo is essentially impossible to get in Japan now and the price has tripled too.

I bought my father a bottle of this for Christmas last year. Amazing Scotch, absolutely superb.

[nottu]

[nottu]

[FG Lurker]

Yes, yes - with an El Rey Del Mundo hamaki on the balcony.

I'm not really a hamaki guy, but I'll enjoy a glass of scotch or two with you!

[Jack]

Totally OT...


I used to be a big Macallan fan but Suntory seems to be trying to squeeze as much money out of them as possible and quality has dropped -- a lot. The 25yo is essentially impossible to get in Japan now and the price has tripled too.

I bought my father a bottle of this for Christmas last year. Amazing Scotch, absolutely superb.

The Glenlivet 25 looks great. I bet it's hard to find. Anyway, there are so many nice single malts out there. But to tell the truth, whenever I bring bottles of Hibiki with me to Canada my friends go through it like sweet lemonade. I really like Hibiki 17 years old even though it's a blend. We drink it like cognac, neat.

[Buraku]

[Buraku]

The buck is doing a record $1.5132 to the €]


Oh how fucked up, people are frantically buying J-gov Bonds today (those fucking JunkBonds)

JGBs edge up as stocks tumble, gains limited before auction

I'd like to see the situation with J government Bonds improve, it would be fantastic to see Japanese banks reformed and I would be happy to see Japanese production increase.


but the whole bonds quagmire smells of another waste of money gov in trying to execute more currency manipulation. It smells like another trade-distorting practice
sell yen, buy US bonds, buy dollars, buy yen ?
and attempt to keep the yen artificially low


Why would the J gov be blowing so many dollars on currency intervention you ask ?

answer is simple - See the above reuters link

Traders said the dollar's extended slide against the yen could hurt Japanese exporters and their share prices, in turn supporting bids in the futures.

and thus once again Japan might inherit an unfair discount over American-made products
but my criticism of Japan ain't nothing compared to the shit that's going down in the US, huge government waste, shameful employment numbers and tactics which pump money into circulation to stimulate growth. Resources and commodities were the thing to get into, I hope you people have been buying because the gold has sky rocketed recently

[Greji]

".....shameful employment numbers and tactics which pump money into circulation to stimulate growth....."

Huh?

[Buraku]

Yeah Greji I know you're a fucking Bush-Licker,
but the fact is McCain, Forbes or even Romney would have been a better leader and new jobs are not being created unless you happen to work in the Texas oil industry or are a contractor in the fucking sandbox.

As for the pump money comment

let me point you to this article
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/saxena/2005/1114.html

This reckless printing of money is the reason why things have become so unaffordable for most people.

[Greji]

Yeah Greji I know you're a fucking Bush-Licker,
but the fact is McCain, Forbes or even Romney would have been a better leader and new jobs are not being created unless you happen to work in the Texas oil industry or are a contractor in the fucking sandbox.

As for the pump money comment

let me point you to this article
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/saxena/2005/1114.html

I read that article in 2005.

I don't know why you're ready to explode into a " fucking Bush-Licker" tirade at the mention of "Huh? Does the word have some hidden Japanese meaning?

I was just curious at your comment about incentives and the statement about the "shameful employment figures" and now you add that the only new jobs are in oil and the "sandbox".

Why do you have difficulties with incentives for businesses? Do you want to take the money away from the people who do the hiring and in turn, penalize any corporation that makes money? They hire and pay people the last time I looked.

Also, I'm not so sure that oil is the big new employer of the moment. If I'm wrong, tell me.

[Buraku]

I'm not so sure Japan should even try to get into this currency fixing business or market intervention, the Dollar is falling off a cliff, if the Japanese want to follow them like a bunch of lemmings its will really screw things up, firstly because the Greenback is falling so fast it will be impossible for Japan to play catch up and secondly the J gov shouldn't waste its energy in this business, there are far more important things to do with Japan's economy.

Data looks pretty fucked today, the dollar hit more new lows once again - surprise, surprise ! JFE Holdings got hit hard today, they already wrote off a 50 bil loss at the start of last month, Mitsubishi took a kicking, retailer Aeon is down and it looks like the blocked a legitimate take over. Investors have started to shit their pants over dismal economic and earnings figures released Friday in the U.S, a hugely important export market for Japan.
Hino showed us some big losses, komatsu is starting to tumble.
Japan stocks across the market will be down as we face fucked economic and corporate news and a further rise in oil prices. JAL says everything is genki but I don't like the plans the airline has laid out, Advantest took a beating, Kawasaki got hit hard and Dowa holding are starting to fall hard and there was news Mitsubishi is quitting the cell phone business

dollar hit 102.92 yen early Monday !!

Japan stocks got whacked 4 pct

Also, I'm not so sure that oil is the big new employer of the moment. If I'm wrong, tell me.

Dubai investment companies, Exxon and the House of Saud are making a killing from our near 4$ gasoline misery, Chevron had a huge 4th quarter, $17.1 billon Y and was dubbed the oil profit monster. Then again a Texas Oil man was elected into the Whitehouse, so should there be any surprises prices have jumped from 35 bucks to over 101 ?

fixing up this "incentives for businesses" market would be great but it would only solve one issue and the US today has many, many problems. We have major, major issues to deal with : Crack addict like addiction to the Harkonen spices in the Saudi fields.
Job numbers are crap, in fact they are down by something like 16,000
There's also a Crack addict like addiction to debt, record deficits from Washington, middle income credit card debts, gambling debts, banking debts you name its there - and in huge numbers. The US debt is now approaching a figure of over Nine TRILLION dollars, it must be fixed and a lot of people are going to suffer in fixing the national debt.
I agree with some of what Ron Paul said, Republican Party got hijacked by a bunch of Neo-Cons, they are now being looked at as a pack of self serving Traitors by an America feeling betrayed
Anyhow I could go on to list the economic problems that need some major surgery, but the list could get boring and I'd be here all fucking day.

Iran might be able to get away with this but I doubt Venezuela could, no matter how loudly their nutter leader shouts.

Fuck, maybe I should have taken a bet on this



Venezuela and Ecuador sent troops to their borders with Colombia on Sunday after their Andean neighbor bombed Colombian rebels inside Ecuador in an attack Caracas said could spark a war.
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSN0227633020080303

[Greji]

Venezuela and Ecuador sent troops to their borders with Colombia on Sunday after their Andean neighbor bombed Colombian rebels inside Ecuador in an attack Caracas said could spark a war.
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSN0227633020080303

Ahh, where's the mandatory "It's Bush's Fault"! caveat?

[Jack]

early morning in North America and the dollar is at 102.15 yen. Ouch!!!


ooopss. Now it's at 101.75

[Buraku]

Dollar wilts as recession alarm bells ring
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gWenxol-QVECR74D5jxs3mgGqAxg

The dollar sank towards fresh lows against the euro and the yen in Asian trade on Monday after a bleak US jobs report added to concerns that the world's largest economy is in a recession, dealers said.

The dollar slipped to 102.29 yen in Tokyo morning trade from 102.67 in New York late Friday.

The euro firmed to 1.5381 dollars from 1.5359, approaching its all-time high of 1.5464 struck on Friday. The euro slipped to 157.33 yen from 157.71.

Jitters about the health of the US economy grew after official data showed a loss of 63,000 jobs in February, the steepest drop since March 2003, defying market forecasts for a gain of about 25,000 jobs.

"The report revealed quite shocking figures, which strengthened the market's view that the US economy is entering a recession," said Shigeru Nakane, a senior strategist at Resona Bank.

[Buraku]

Nikkei 225 12,433.44 ↓ Down 427.69 ⇩ (3.33%)

I spotted this graph, I'm wonder how accurate it is ?

How the Nikkei been doing so poorly this past year ? and if so why is the J-media acting like everything is genki

[canman]

I think Buraku that most media types just are not concerned with the Nikkei 225. They don't think that most people have stock and that it is only the high and mighty do. Of course they are dead wrong, and a lot of people are feeling this downturn, but it seems to be another strange fact of Japanese reporting.
The other thing that kills me is that oil hits $110 and nobody seems to be batting an eye. I filled up yesterday and it cost me Y8000, these gas prices are just going to get worse, and nobody is saying anything about how to slow them down, or try to reverse them. And this is all about speculation. You can't tell me that with the current slowdown in the economy that there is that much demand for oil. I keep waiting for the bubble to burst, just like in Japan's markets of the late 80's and the US housing bubble that just burst. I just hope it happens soon.

[GuyJean]

.. You can't tell me that with the current slowdown in the economy that there is that much demand for oil..

Yeah, I'm a little confused on that]third largest oil reserves[/URL]' in Iraq finally out of Saddham's hands and spewing into the market, shouldn't prices be coming down? .. Or at least 'paying for Iraq's reconstruction'..

Times are tough; I just had 4 colleagues in the US and London 'let go'.. It's only going to get worse, IMO.. 2Q 2009 we'll be OK.. (As he says pulling a rabbit out of his ass)..

GJ

[Mulboyne]

Never heard of stagflation?

We are a long way from that scenario but there are more than a few voices arguing that commodity prices will continue to rally while economies soften. Bear in mind too that oil prices were low while the stock market and economy were barrelling along quite nicely in the 90's so there's no direct reason why they should automatically react with a fall now. There is no "right" price for oil against a given level of economic activity. Here are a couple of old charts:

[Jack]

All commodities will rise and fall based on the US dollar. But the USD today is at 100.7 yen. I wonder if Lurker is still hurting.

[Mulboyne]

All commodities will rise and fall based on the US dollar. But the USD today is at 100.7 yen. I wonder if Lurker is still hurting.

Even that isn't sufficient to explain commodity price moves. Look where oil was last time the dollar was worth 100 yen twelve years ago.