I really see no point in discussing a conventional war scenario between Japan and China. For several reasons this may occur in the first stages of an armed conflict, but it is one the Chinese would find costly and time consuming, and probably one they could not win anyway. They have already ruled much of this out. The conflict will quickly escalate to first strike nuclear checkmate on the Chinese part encompassing Japan of course.
A most likely scenario: On the first day of World War III, the United States will lose two-thirds of its military and nearly half its population, yielding superiority to communist China.
The Chinese surprise of a rain of missiles on U.S. installations and homeland cities would be a military masterpiece. The People's Liberation Army Second Artillery Corp would have achieved total victory armed only with a small force of more than 300 tactical and 10 strategic missiles.
Defenseless against the attack, U.S. forces in Hawaii, Alaska, South Korea and Japan would be quickly overwhelmed by the guided warheads of the Chinese missiles.
In a span of little more than 30 minutes, China would be able to wipe out Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego, Chicago, Washington, Boston, New York, Hawaii, Manila, Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo.
Chinese stealth patrol attact craft
China could sink five U.S. carriers, seven Ohio class submarines, vaporize more than 200 MX and Minuteman missiles and destroy more than 800 combat aircraft including 15 B-2 strategic bombers. The strikes would also kill more than 100 million people without the loss of a single PLA soldier.
The attack will have left China with 10 remaining strategic missiles and nearly 300 tactical missiles, holding the devastated U.S. hostage to another strike.
Despite the calls to retaliate, sending the scattered remains of U.S. nuclear forces against China would not stop another attack on America, nor would it stop the PLA Generals who ordered the first.
There is no question that the U.S. strategic missiles could devastate the Chinese homeland. However, killing hundreds of millions of innocent Chinese citizens would do little to deter the warlords in Beijing from launching the second wave of 10 missiles while remaining hidden inside bomb-proof tunnels.
China's sudden attack would force America and her allies to surrender on Beijing's terms. In little more than 48 hours, China will have won World War III.
China also has recently tested a new long-range missile capable of reaching America, the DF-31. The DF-31 is capable of delivering a single multi-megaton H-bomb or up to three 90-kiloton nuclear bombs. The most recent DF-31 test took place earlier this year, and some Pentagon analysts expect the PLA Second Artillery will begin active deployment of DF-31 units early next year.
New secret technology
The Chinese can be creative too.
A Type-65 anti-submarine torpedo should be used "very likely with a low-yield nuclear warhead" to avoid having to make a direct strike on the ship. The attack also should take place at night to help mask the torpedo wake.
The submarine would be able to evade U.S. attack submarines because it is based on advanced Russian submarine technology.
The submarine can avoid detection by U.S. anti-submarine warfare aircraft by operating at 10 knots at a depth of 400 meters.
The Chinese 093 will run quiet "below a pre-surveyed ocean dense layer" as U.S. escort ships pass overhead. It would then confront the carrier head on and use eight Type-65 torpedoes and escape quietly
It is worth noting that each Chinese DF-15 tactical missile has a flight time of less than four minutes, from launch to impact. Today, China dominates the tactical nuclear missile category and frequently demonstrates that fact. In 1996, China dropped dummy DF-15 warheads just off Taiwan's coastline.
Here is a detailed analysis of quantity and types of chinese ICMBs
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2005/d20050719china.pdf
