Nick Mackie (BBC), January 23, 2005
[...] By 2007, Japan's population is expected to peak at 127 million, then shrink to under 100 million by the middle of the century. This means 30 million fewer workers at a time when the number of elderly will have almost doubled.
"In the year 2050, if the birth rate remains the same people over 60 will make up over 30% of the population," explains Shigeo Morioka of the International Longevity Centre in Tokyo.
[...]
After a decade of economic stagnation and huge deficit spending, the public sector debt is already about 140% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), the highest rate among industrialised countries.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that as the falling birth rate takes grip from 2010, the cost of running Japan's welfare state will double to more than 5% of GDP, while current account balances will deteriorate by over 2%.
But unfortunately, Japan appears poorly prepared both financially and politically.
[...]
Come 2020, Japan could be more dependent on a shrinking workforce than any other industrialised power. There are fears that the world's number two economy is doomed to a permanent recession.
(Full Story)
The piece started out as something about old farts in Japan, but quickly moved on to Japan's future. Succinctly, Japan's fucked.