Japan's Governing Party faces extinction

[ketchupkatsu]

From the International Herald Tribune

TOKYO: Mounting troubles threaten the brief administration of Japan's unpopular prime minister, Taro Aso. The bigger question is whether time could also be running out for his Liberal Democratic Party and its half-century monopoly on political power in Japan.....more

[Buraku]

[Netherlander]

"The bigger question is whether time could also be running out for his Liberal Democratic Party and its half-century monopoly on political power in Japan"

Yeah, right..............
I've heard that one before.
I've been hearing that line for the past 15 years! It's quite tiring

[GuyJean]

.. Yeah, right..............
I've heard that one before.
I've been hearing that line for the past 15 years! It's quite tiring

Didn't they lose it briefly in the early 90s. I remember my Poly Sci prof telling me 'yeah, right. They'll be back in power in 6 months.'.. It happened.. He was one of them..

GJ

[dimwit]

An interesting article came out in the February 14th Shukan Gendai where a panel of experts went through the districts one by one and came up with their predictions. One had the coalition holding 239 to the DJP's 211 witht he smaller partiews holding the balance of power and the other two panelist give the coaltion 230 to 224, and 203 to 245. The reason is that Japanese elections are not decided in Tokyo or even Kanto and Kansai.

Let me illustrate the point.

At present the LDP holds 305 of 480 seats and Komei holds an additional 31.
Therefore the LDP must lose at least 65 seats to be reduced to a minority and 95 for the coalition to lose. The DJP need to pick up at least 130 from the LDP to form a stand alone government.

So where do these gains come from? First lets look the the proportional represention seats. The DJP will pick up at least 20 from the LDP and possibly 25 if thing are a landslide. In the electorial districts, the DJP can expect to gain about 10 seats in Tokyo and about another 25 in Kanto. So where else? Kansai particularly Hyogo and Osaka should yield another 15. So what else? Fukuoka, Nagoya, Shizuoka? Maybe another 10 tops. That totals 85. Now you are getting into the backwaters where the DJP has little or no organization other than the shambles they inherited from the Socialist Party 20 years ago. They have been trying to break into the 30 or so prefecture capitals and might in fact suceed in a few, but in places like Matsuyama it is a real horse race and I don't think anyone is certain of an DJP victory.