Same old, same old: Kozumi wins

[Taro Toporific]

The LDP coalition party still has the majority (right now 130+ seats) even though the DPJ had some gains (70 seats) ...

DPJ on par with LDP for proportional representation seats
Mainichi Shimbun, Japan - 9:13 PM / Nov 8
The largest opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is certain to match
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the number of proportional ...

[stuckinkysuhu]

Looks like the LDP party is taking a lot of hits though.

Personally, I could see 3 outcomes for this election.

1. Koizumi wins big, LDP gets its majority back.

The opposition voices would be silenced as Koizumi manages to secure a majority. He would be able to push ahead with reforms and the stock market would be up tomorrow.

2. Koizumi hangs on, LDP doesn't have a majority but the coalition does.

The LDP would lose seats and Koizumi would be under renewed pressure from waring LDP factions. This would be bad for reforms, and would mean another few years of nothing getting done until the DPJ finally manage to win an election.

3. DPJ manage to take hold of power.

This would mean big changes in Japan. The stock market would probably be confused, but as Kan started to make changes, Japan would become much more dynamic.

Looks like #2 meaning no change from last time. Well, the DPJ has made gains but not enough to take power, and on TV Koizumi is looking a bit shaken which will likely start questions about his reforms. Basically, this is the worst possible outcome.

Let's hope the DPJ get the job done next time.