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  • fuckedgaijin ‹ General ‹ F*cked News ‹ Another newbie reporter "discovers" Japan

Dynamo to Dinosaur: Got Hope & Change?

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Dynamo to Dinosaur: Got Hope & Change?

Postby Mike Oxlong » Tue Jul 27, 2010 10:10 am

[SIZE="5"]A Clouded Outlook[/SIZE]

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Sometimes Japan seems to be on the wrong continent. Everywhere else in Asia, from Shanghai to Mumbai to Jakarta, there is an aura of perpetual motion, a sense that tomorrow will be better than today. The region is on a frenetic 365-day-a-year hurtle into a brighter future. Japan once shared Asia's dynamism and mission. But not anymore. Today, Japan is an island of inertia in an Asia in constant flux. Japan's political leadership is paralyzed, its corporate elite befuddled, its people agonized about the future. While Asia lurches forward, Japan inches backward.

And yet no one in Japan is doing very much about it. For 20 long years, ever since the spectacular collapse of a stock-and-property price bubble in the early 1990s, the economy has existed in a near cryogenic state. The postbubble period of malaise called the "lost decade" has stretched into the lost decades. Growth has been practically nonexistent, the welfare of the Japanese people has suffered and the old industrial titans of Japan Inc. are retreating on the world stage. Japan will likely lose its cherished status as the world's No.2 economy this year, to a more energetic China. Though that was inevitable, the fact that China is so quickly closing the gap in economic power doesn't bode well for Japan's standing in the world...more at TIME Magazine.
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Postby Yokohammer » Tue Jul 27, 2010 10:55 am

Excellent article.
Close to home: Sendai is the nearest city to where I'm at.
Made a pdf for a second reading later.

Thanks for that one Mike! :thumbs:
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Postby FG Lurker » Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:01 pm

Good find, thanks for sharing.

It's perplexing that even with Japan's economic problems reasonably well known that the JPY is somehow considered a "safe haven" currency. :confused:
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Postby Yokohammer » Tue Jul 27, 2010 4:20 pm

FG Lurker wrote:It's perplexing that even with Japan's economic problems reasonably well known that the JPY is somehow considered a "safe haven" currency. :confused:

Confuses the heck out of me, too.

It scares me a bit actually, and I keep thinking that if the artificial props that I assume are being used to keep the currency afloat suddenly collapse, I might wake up one morning to find that I have to take a bucketload of cash down to the super just to buy a loaf of bread. An extreme scenario, perhaps, but it wouldn't be the first time.

But I suppose as long as people believe the yen is a safe haven, it will be. Belief has an almost magical power to uplift currency. Until ... *shudder* ...
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Postby FG Lurker » Tue Jul 27, 2010 5:40 pm

Yokohammer wrote:Confuses the heck out of me, too.

It scares me a bit actually, and I keep thinking that if the artificial props that I assume are being used to keep the currency afloat suddenly collapse, I might wake up one morning to find that I have to take a bucketload of cash down to the super just to buy a loaf of bread. An extreme scenario, perhaps, but it wouldn't be the first time.

In my opinion the yen's current strength is in big part a result of the immediacy of the problems happening in the US, UK, and EU. The shit is hitting the fan there daily and this results in the currency movements we see. The shit hasn't hit the fan here yet really -- the longer term problems facing Japan are being ignored by the markets. As the constant stream of problems outside Japan start to subside I think Japan's looming clusterfuck will get more attention and this (along with rate increases outside Japan) will result in the yen weakening.

The big question is "when"... Lots of people expected "when" to be later this year and that is why the yen weakened to ~95/dollar. Then more shit started hitting the fan in the EU, the US economy started to slow, and the US Fed made it clear that they won't raise rates this year. Now we're back to flirting with 85/dollar. :( At the current time it seems that most people expect "when" to be sometime in mid-2011, but it wouldn't surprise me to see things drag out until late 2011, shitty as that thought is.
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Postby Yokohammer » Tue Jul 27, 2010 5:49 pm

FG Lurker wrote:In my opinion the yen's current strength is in big part a result of the immediacy of the problems happening in the US, UK, and Europe. The shit is hitting the fan there daily and this results in the currency movements we see. The shit hasn't hit the fan here yet really -- the longer term problems facing Japan are being ignored by the markets. As the constant stream of problems outside Japan start to subside (next year maybe?) I think Japan's looming clusterfuck will get more attention and this (along with rate increases outside Japan) will result in the yen weakening. Just my opinion.

Good opinion.
One of the most plausible I've heard thus far.

So that gives Japan's highly competent bureaucracy a whole year or more to straighten things out.
Fine. All we have to do in the meantime is ... run for our fucking lives!!!
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Postby Socratesabroad » Tue Jul 27, 2010 6:43 pm

Yokohammer wrote:Excellent article.


I'll beg to disagree. The stuff about Sendai is decent (I used to live in Fukushima and travel up to Sendai to buy books/mags in English), I'll grant you.

What I'm tired of is the incessant fawning over China's supposedly roaring economy.
Another newbie reporter "marvels at" China wrote:Japan will likely lose its cherished status as the world's No.2 economy this year, to a more energetic China. Though that was inevitable, the fact that China is so quickly closing the gap in economic power doesn't bode well for Japan's standing in the world.

For those of us living in China, these kind of statements are akin to newbie reporters in Japan talking about the funny Engrish they encounter.

The Chinese "miracle" doesn't refer to the entire country but only to Beijing, cities on the east coast, and maybe Chongqing. The rest of the country is a backwater where illiteracy is rife and only worsening, so much so that there's a different standard of literacy for people in cities than in the country.
Somehow, all that praise of the "miracle" also seems to neglect mentioning how the Chinese environment has been bent over and given a stiff one by both Chinese industry and agriculture to the point that 2/3 of Chinese cities suffer water shortages and 70% of rivers are polluted.
What's more, the "miracle" is dependent upon a vast supply of cheap labor and no one thinks about how these workers are supposed to be fed. Less water means the remaining arable land will have to produce more, something which is only accomplished by using more fertilizers and pesticides, thereby further increasing pollution.

Just what sort of "miracle" will the Chinese economy be when the country has to import food and water?!? Hell, maybe they can turn to North Korea for economic advice...
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Postby Yokohammer » Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:15 pm

Socratesabroad wrote:What I'm tired of is the incessant fawning over China's supposedly roaring economy.

Yes, the problems are well documented. No argument.

But I don't think anyone's fawning over the "Chinese Miracle" in the belief that China is becoming some sort of paradise, they're simply stating economic facts. Whether it's just because of Beijing, or one city block in Beijing, China is poised to become the world's #2 economy, pushing Japan down to #3. That's a very significant event.

People are awed by China's economic growth, certainly not it's ecological or human rights track record.
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Postby Mike Oxlong » Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:32 pm

Japan has relatively low food self-sufficiency itself, and though I've read that water pollution is slowly improving, Japan has a history of pollution problems. No doubt China will give Japan a run for their money, and probably even surpass the abuses Japan rained on it's own soil, but the Japanese did give it the old college try!
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Postby FG Lurker » Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:44 pm

Socratesabroad wrote:What I'm tired of is the incessant fawning over China's supposedly roaring economy.

For those of us living in China, these kind of statements are akin to newbie reporters in Japan talking about the funny Engrish they encounter.

I'd say it is much like how the western press fawned over Japan during the bubble years. I expect the end result to be similar too -- the bubble in China will burst as the bubble in Japan did ~20 years ago.

My worry is that the coming economic meltdown in China will be less than peaceful and lead to massive internal instability... How will China react? Huge crackdowns leading to increased instability thus leading to civil war or political revolution? Stranger things have happened. I don't expect it to be pretty, no matter how it unfolds.
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Postby Taka-Okami » Tue Jul 27, 2010 8:54 pm

FG Lurker wrote:I'd say it is much like how the western press fawned over Japan during the bubble years. I expect the end result to be similar too -- the bubble in China will burst as the bubble in Japan did ~20 years ago.

My worry is that the coming economic meltdown in China will be less than peaceful and lead to massive internal instability... How will China react? Huge crackdowns leading to increased instability thus leading to civil war or political revolution? Stranger things have happened. I don't expect it to be pretty, no matter how it unfolds.



The whole world is headed for disaster. Simply there are too many people all trying to get a first world lifestyle. Eventually nature will buckle, and a huge cull of the population will occur. It's only a matter of time now.

Better prep yourself for the end times. Move to places with low population and lots of farmland & food. Keep some gold, silver for trading, get some usefull basic skillz, get some guns & ammo to protect yourself from the starving hordes trying to move in from the cities.

Although I continue working in the current world, I quietly plan for the end times. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

Kind regards.
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Postby FG Lurker » Tue Jul 27, 2010 10:07 pm

Taka-Okami wrote:The whole world is headed for disaster. Simply there are too many people all trying to get a first world lifestyle. Eventually nature will buckle, and a huge cull of the population will occur. It's only a matter of time now.

Better prep yourself for the end times. Move to places with low population and lots of farmland & food. Keep some gold, silver for trading, get some usefull basic skillz, get some guns & ammo to protect yourself from the starving hordes trying to move in from the cities.

Although I continue working in the current world, I quietly plan for the end times. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

You realize that people have been predicting the "end times" for thousands of years, right? Christianity started as a doomsday cult that just never went away and I'm sure Christ wasn't the first cult leader. No doubt there will still be doomsdayers 100s of years after we're both dead. (I'd say 1000s of years but I have some hope that humanity will eventually mature and outgrow religion...)
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Postby Taka-Okami » Tue Jul 27, 2010 10:12 pm

FG Lurker wrote:You realize that people have been predicting the "end times" for thousands of years, right? Christianity started as a doomsday cult that just never went away and I'm sure Christ wasn't the first cult leader. No doubt there will still be doomsdayers 100s of years after we're both dead. (I'd say 1000s of years but I have some hope that humanity will eventually mature and outgrow religion...)


People have been predicting the end for 1000's of years and they have been right numerous times. All civilisations have collapsed in a heap, and so will ours. It is inevitable.
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Postby GomiGirl » Tue Jul 27, 2010 10:23 pm

Taka-Okami wrote:People have been predicting the end for 1000's of years and they have been right numerous times. All civilisations have collapsed in a heap, and so will ours. It is inevitable.


You have a bright future in writing children books or advertising jingles. :razz:
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Postby Socratesabroad » Wed Jul 28, 2010 5:20 pm

Yokohammer wrote:Yes, the problems are well documented. No argument.

But I don't think anyone's fawning over the "Chinese Miracle" in the belief that China is becoming some sort of paradise, they're simply stating economic facts. Whether it's just because of Beijing, or one city block in Beijing, China is poised to become the world's #2 economy, pushing Japan down to #3. That's a very significant event.


Imagine several decades ago someone touting the Soviet Union as "tech savvy" because of its impressive space program. Or someone praising Cuba as "fitness-focused " thanks to its athletic victories.

Whether it be China's economy, the Soviet space program, or Cuban sports programs, these areas are almost singular in their success while the rest of the country and other aspects of society are in the proverbial toilet.

Yokohammer wrote:People are awed by China's economic growth, certainly not it's ecological or human rights track record.


Sadly, you're wrong. You could discount some of the praise of China as politeness to one's host but several nutjobs look at China, in large part due to its economy, as some bizarre source of inspiration. Even the US President has been starstruck now and then.
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Postby Taro Toporific » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:33 pm

Yokohammer wrote:...China is poised to become the world's #2 economy, pushing Japan down to #3...

:nihonjin:
Economic growth - China Becomes Second Biggest World Economy
Reuters | CNBC -- Friday, 30 July 2010
....
Yi Gang, China's chief currency regulator, mentioned the milestone in passing in remarks published on Friday.
"China, in fact, is now already the world's second-largest economy," he said in an interview with China Reform magazine posted on the website of his agency, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
Cruising past Japan might give China bragging rights, but its per-capita income of about $3,800 a year is a fraction of Japan's or America's...more...

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Postby Mike Oxlong » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:47 pm

Is that why Hiroko Mima had so much verve and energy on film? I'm guessing she wasn't constipated at all. :D
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Postby Tsuru » Sat Jul 31, 2010 2:39 pm

FG Lurker wrote:I'd say it is much like how the western press fawned over Japan during the bubble years. I expect the end result to be similar too -- the bubble in China will burst as the bubble in Japan did ~20 years ago.

My worry is that the coming economic meltdown in China will be less than peaceful and lead to massive internal instability... How will China react? Huge crackdowns leading to increased instability thus leading to civil war or political revolution? Stranger things have happened. I don't expect it to be pretty, no matter how it unfolds.
Thatś pretty much how I feel about China in a nutshell. I think when the bubble will inevitably burst, there is a good chance China will lash out at one of its neighbours in an attempt to unite the country... most likely India.
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Postby Yokohammer » Sat Jul 31, 2010 2:58 pm

[quote="Tsuru"]Thatś]
Wow, that's so 1930's.

But then again, I suppose it is China we're talking about.
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Postby Tsuru » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:17 pm

Yokohammer wrote:Wow, that's so 1930's.

But then again, I suppose it is China we're talking about.
Desperate as they may be at that point they won be so stupid to provoke the US through Japan/Taiwan or even Russia. They may even start shit with Vietnam like they did at the end of the 1970s.
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Postby Mike Oxlong » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:28 pm

It could be...you've got two countries with populations of over a billion, both with growing economies and middle classes, and a finite amount of resources for people to live the consumer lifestyles. Something's gotta give.
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Postby Tsuru » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:49 pm

Don't underestimate the simmering animosity between China and India... even they have their share of territorial disputes.
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