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  • fuckedgaijin ‹ General ‹ F*cked News ‹ Another newbie reporter "discovers" Japan

Let's economy

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16 posts • Page 1 of 1

Let's economy

Postby Russell » Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:36 am

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[SIZE="3"]The Japanese Economic Miracle[/SIZE]

While many speak of a lost decade, or even lost decades, there is really little that warrant such a description. In fact, one can make quite a convincing case for arguing that what Japan went through is nothing less than a sort of miracle. It suffered a 'Great Depression' type shock, without suffering anything even remotely resembling a Great Depression. In fact, it hardly suffered a recession at all.

[...]

There can be little doubt that the scale of the asset price crash and resulting wealth destruction [in Japan] was as big as that plaguing the Western world from 1929 onwards.

[...]

However, [the graph above shows] what happened. [...] This is simply one of the most amazing graphs in economic history -- ever.

If you consider the economic shock that Japan endured, and the way banks were crippled by bad debts and their centrality in financing business, it really is stunning that Japan never really experienced anything like the Great Depression. Add in a shrinking and rapidly aging population and the mystery becomes even bigger.

Let that sink in for a moment. While the evidence is undeniable that Japan suffered a Great Depression-type shock (or even worse), it didn't experience anything even remotely close to a Great Depression at all.

In fact, in terms like unemployment and GDP per person (arguably the most important economic statistics of a country), it was even able to perform better than it's major rivals suffering no such shock, at least not until 2008, whilst the Japanese shock occurred in 1990.

The pleasant lesson from this is that apparently, it is possible to experience a great financial shock, on a par or worse as that of the 1930s, without suffering anything close to a Great Depression.

Next, let's take a look at the government debt as a percentage of GDP...
:roll:
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Postby LesTalk » Fri Dec 02, 2011 3:07 am

Something funky about that graph - it appears to show Japan's economic recovery starting at the bottom of the trough, while for the other economies, it shows anywhere from two to four years before the nadir. I think it would be interesting to see the previous two to four years of Japan's economy in order to make a better comparison.
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Postby Screwed-down Hairdo » Fri Dec 02, 2011 8:05 am

This bloke is the economist version of a white trash reality TV star...
Japan's post-bubble survival has been a farce, fueled by conjuring up funds by incurring public debt funded largely by local money that had been under-taxed throughout the postwar period. A significant portion of that local money moved overseas when the bubble burst...watch repatriation of cash from overseas Japanese companies become more stringent in coming years when it is no longer feasible to keep debt revolving domestically.
Japan's economy is fast-tracking toward a success story along the likes of Latin America in the early 1980s, the only difference being debt is mostly local instead of being held by gringoes.
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Postby Russell » Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:20 am

LesTalk wrote:Something funky about that graph - it appears to show Japan's economic recovery starting at the bottom of the trough, while for the other economies, it shows anywhere from two to four years before the nadir. I think it would be interesting to see the previous two to four years of Japan's economy in order to make a better comparison.

Very good point!!!
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Postby Coligny » Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:46 pm

Russell wrote:Very good point!!!


If only someone could tell me what the number on the left means I could maybe start to try to understand something...
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Postby matsuki » Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:49 pm

Coligny wrote:If only someone could tell me what the number on the left means I could maybe start to try to understand something...


Age of the average worker ;)
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Postby Mulboyne » Fri Dec 02, 2011 5:17 pm

Of course, there are other opinions. I was just reading one from Kyle Bass. He starts talking directly about Japan on page nine, under the heading "Japan will soon be on the front page".
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Postby Greji » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:46 am

Mulboyne wrote:Of course, there are other opinions. I was just reading one from Kyle Bass. He starts talking directly about Japan on page nine, under the heading "Japan will soon be on the front page".
Aren't the obituaries usually in the back pages?
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Postby Russell » Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:22 am

Coligny wrote:If only someone could tell me what the number on the left means I could maybe start to try to understand something...

The graph shows the real GDPs indexed to the peaks of the bubbles, so the left axis of the graph shows the index, whereby 100 is the reference value.

But here is the weak point of the story: by changing the year at which you index at 100, your graph will look different, as remarked by LesTalk.
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Miracle?

Postby Level3 » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:36 am

If I had magic credit cards with no limits, and I could use one to make "payments" on the other and vice versa, I too could have a similar personal "economic miracle", live large, never work, never feel poor, never have to eat out of a dumpster or drink moonshine, and then dump the debt on other peoples' grandchildren.

Suckers.

Economic miracle? My ass.
The unemployment rate is easy to rig. Just don't count anyone who is unemployed for more than x months. Unemployment problem? Solved!

But hey, this morning I see the J govt. is selling government bonds to individuals, with a whopping 0.78% return if you buy the 10-year! Sign me up!!!!;) It sure is a Golden Age!!
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Postby JLR » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:48 pm

1.) You can't compare Greece to Japan as Greece is tied to the Euro and has less control over their economy (they can't just print more money like the USA and Japan has)


2.) All I know is that the decline in GDP plus the yen spent for earthquake reconstruction will increase public debt (which is more than twice the size of its economy) is not a good thing. Add in the aging population and the constant printing of money to escape deflation and I have to question the long term economic future here.
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Postby Catoneinutica » Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:26 pm

Captain Euro and his crew are gonna fuck that chart!

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Postby FG Lurker » Wed Dec 21, 2011 12:06 am

Mulboyne wrote:Of course, there are other opinions. I was just reading one from Kyle Bass. He starts talking directly about Japan on page nine, under the heading "Japan will soon be on the front page".

I'd love to see the financial word take a more realistic view of Japan and the Yen (maybe I should be careful what I wish for) but experts have been predicting the collapse of the Japanese gov't bond market for many years. It's pretty clear that it has to happen eventually, but...
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Busy day for Japan news

Postby Samurai_Jerk » Mon Dec 26, 2011 11:51 am

Japan, China look to trade talks, debt buys

Japan and China agreed to start formal talks early next year on a free trade pact that would also include South Korea, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Sunday after talks that showed the deepening bonds between Asia's two biggest economies.
Japan also said it was looking to buy Chinese treasury debt, and the two governments agreed to enhance financial cooperation.


Disaster-struck Japan set for record high spending

Disaster-struck Japan is headed to record high budget spending of 96 trillion yen ($1.2 trillion) as the nation tackles the costs of recovery from the March earthquake and tsunami.
-snip-
The government will rely on new debt for 49 percent of its annual revenue, the highest level ever, according to Kyodo News service.
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Postby Mike Oxlong » Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:46 pm

JLR wrote:1.) You can't compare Greece to Japan as Greece is tied to the Euro and has less control over their economy (they can't just print more money like the USA and Japan has)

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Postby legion » Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:55 pm

FG Lurker wrote:I'd love to see the financial word take a more realistic view of Japan and the Yen (maybe I should be careful what I wish for) but experts have been predicting the collapse of the Japanese gov't bond market for many years. It's pretty clear that it has to happen eventually, but...


them Japanese just ain't doing it right
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