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FG Lurker wrote:It's perplexing that even with Japan's economic problems reasonably well known that the JPY is somehow considered a "safe haven" currency.
Yokohammer wrote:Confuses the heck out of me, too.
It scares me a bit actually, and I keep thinking that if the artificial props that I assume are being used to keep the currency afloat suddenly collapse, I might wake up one morning to find that I have to take a bucketload of cash down to the super just to buy a loaf of bread. An extreme scenario, perhaps, but it wouldn't be the first time.
FG Lurker wrote:In my opinion the yen's current strength is in big part a result of the immediacy of the problems happening in the US, UK, and Europe. The shit is hitting the fan there daily and this results in the currency movements we see. The shit hasn't hit the fan here yet really -- the longer term problems facing Japan are being ignored by the markets. As the constant stream of problems outside Japan start to subside (next year maybe?) I think Japan's looming clusterfuck will get more attention and this (along with rate increases outside Japan) will result in the yen weakening. Just my opinion.
Yokohammer wrote:Excellent article.
Another newbie reporter "marvels at" China wrote:Japan will likely lose its cherished status as the world's No.2 economy this year, to a more energetic China. Though that was inevitable, the fact that China is so quickly closing the gap in economic power doesn't bode well for Japan's standing in the world.
Socratesabroad wrote:What I'm tired of is the incessant fawning over China's supposedly roaring economy.
Socratesabroad wrote:What I'm tired of is the incessant fawning over China's supposedly roaring economy.
For those of us living in China, these kind of statements are akin to newbie reporters in Japan talking about the funny Engrish they encounter.
FG Lurker wrote:I'd say it is much like how the western press fawned over Japan during the bubble years. I expect the end result to be similar too -- the bubble in China will burst as the bubble in Japan did ~20 years ago.
My worry is that the coming economic meltdown in China will be less than peaceful and lead to massive internal instability... How will China react? Huge crackdowns leading to increased instability thus leading to civil war or political revolution? Stranger things have happened. I don't expect it to be pretty, no matter how it unfolds.
Taka-Okami wrote:The whole world is headed for disaster. Simply there are too many people all trying to get a first world lifestyle. Eventually nature will buckle, and a huge cull of the population will occur. It's only a matter of time now.
Better prep yourself for the end times. Move to places with low population and lots of farmland & food. Keep some gold, silver for trading, get some usefull basic skillz, get some guns & ammo to protect yourself from the starving hordes trying to move in from the cities.
Although I continue working in the current world, I quietly plan for the end times. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
FG Lurker wrote:You realize that people have been predicting the "end times" for thousands of years, right? Christianity started as a doomsday cult that just never went away and I'm sure Christ wasn't the first cult leader. No doubt there will still be doomsdayers 100s of years after we're both dead. (I'd say 1000s of years but I have some hope that humanity will eventually mature and outgrow religion...)
Taka-Okami wrote:People have been predicting the end for 1000's of years and they have been right numerous times. All civilisations have collapsed in a heap, and so will ours. It is inevitable.
Yokohammer wrote:Yes, the problems are well documented. No argument.
But I don't think anyone's fawning over the "Chinese Miracle" in the belief that China is becoming some sort of paradise, they're simply stating economic facts. Whether it's just because of Beijing, or one city block in Beijing, China is poised to become the world's #2 economy, pushing Japan down to #3. That's a very significant event.
Yokohammer wrote:People are awed by China's economic growth, certainly not it's ecological or human rights track record.
Yokohammer wrote:...China is poised to become the world's #2 economy, pushing Japan down to #3...
Thatś pretty much how I feel about China in a nutshell. I think when the bubble will inevitably burst, there is a good chance China will lash out at one of its neighbours in an attempt to unite the country... most likely India.FG Lurker wrote:I'd say it is much like how the western press fawned over Japan during the bubble years. I expect the end result to be similar too -- the bubble in China will burst as the bubble in Japan did ~20 years ago.
My worry is that the coming economic meltdown in China will be less than peaceful and lead to massive internal instability... How will China react? Huge crackdowns leading to increased instability thus leading to civil war or political revolution? Stranger things have happened. I don't expect it to be pretty, no matter how it unfolds.
Desperate as they may be at that point they won be so stupid to provoke the US through Japan/Taiwan or even Russia. They may even start shit with Vietnam like they did at the end of the 1970s.Yokohammer wrote:Wow, that's so 1930's.
But then again, I suppose it is China we're talking about.
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