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Coligny wrote:Taro Toporific wrote:Generally experts say that the best sign something serious is going to happen in Korea (rather than yammering and posturing) is when families and non-critical personal are pulled out.Voice of America's Asia Bureau editor/reporter, Steve Herman, (@W7VOA Oct 21) is reporting:
Tonight's Nelson Report (a reputable newsletter on NE Asia): Removing personal assets from #ROK now advisable, say sr. admin. officials.
Read that stuff in the voice of Alek Jones...
Much better entertainment value...
Japan Wants War With North Korea's Kim Jong Un, Not Dialogue, New Poll Shows
By Cristina Silva
53.9% of the Japanese public support using force against North Korea
時事通信の11月の世論調査で日米両国が北朝鮮にどう対応すべきかを尋ねたところ、「圧力重視」を支持する人は53.9%で、「対話重視」の39.4%を上回った。
Takechanpoo wrote:Japan Wants War With North Korea's Kim Jong Un, Not Dialogue, New Poll Shows
By Cristina Silva53.9% of the Japanese public support using force against North Korea
Grumpy Gramps wrote:Can you apply pressure if you don't have the force to back it up? "Do as we say or else we will fart in your general direction / throw cotton balls at you" etc. is not exactly applying pressure, is it?
Japan has detected radio signals which indicate North Korea may be preparing a new missile launch.
The radio signals pointed to the North Korean Army's possible launch of a ballistic missile "within the next few days," the Kyodo news agency reported, citing a Japanese government source.
A South Korean government source, cited by Yonhap, said the military intelligence agencies of Seoul, Tokyo and Washington have in recent days picked up radio signals such as those that had been detected before a launch.
When asked about this information, Pentagon spokesperson Colonel Robert Manning said only that Washington continued to watch Pyongyang closely, according to the South Korean agency.
The reports follow a warning from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies which says a missile test by Kim Jong-un regime was likely within the next 30 days, according to Asia Times.
The US think tank claimed the most likely date was December 17, which is the anniversary of the death of Kim's father, Kim Jong-il, who died in 2011.
In September North Korea conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test when it fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over the Japanese island of Hokkaido.
matsuki wrote:Any reason they (as in the US/Japan/SK) don't prepare and shoot that fucker down before it leaves the peninsula?
wagyl wrote:I can think of two.
While these tests give North Korea an idea as to the extent and the limits of their current capabilities, it also gives exactly the same information to other nations monitoring the results -- in fact possibly more so, since the results are more likely to be reported without fudging. They can see just what stage of capability North Korea has reached.
wagyl wrote:Also, it sometimes helps if you don't provide the enemy with a reason to spin your actions as "an act of aggression on our manifest sovereignty." If someone looks like they are bursting for a fight, you don't provide them with provocation. Of course, I have exactly the same advice for North Korea.
matsuki wrote:before it leaves the peninsula
wagyl wrote:Maybe you didn't mean to saymatsuki wrote:before it leaves the peninsula
but instead meant to say "once it is outside of anywhere that could in any way be potentially regarded as North Korea's exclusion zone"
That seems to be what you are saying now.
But really, you have to say exactly what you mean in these situations. This whole environment is tuned to reading the worst into whatever the other side says (and also what it omits to say).
Anyway, they already launched.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nort ... DS2MB?il=0
legion wrote:kind of funny watching CNN turn cartwheels rather than admit the Donald just did something worthwhile.
Russell wrote:legion wrote:kind of funny watching CNN turn cartwheels rather than admit the Donald just did something worthwhile.
Well, let's wait what Trump has to tweet in the next 24 hours about Kim. He's kind of notorious for changing his mind, isn't he? And let's hope he doesn't confuse Kim with Trudeau.
On a positive note (from the viewpoint of China), Trump has started a significant power shift in the region by announcing the end of US-South Korean military exercises (without even consulting South-Korea about it). That may lead to a power vacuum, and power vacuums often lead to war.
So, let's see what comes from all of this.
Russia, Iran, Syria, and other bad actors want to thank you, Mr. President. You sent the clearest of signals that sanctions regimes, inspections, and verified denuclearization are no longer relevant in our brave new era of nationalist populist strongmen and Michael Bay knockoff videos.
Evidently, all the bad guys have to do is kiss your ample ass long enough and shower you with enough superficial praise and they can play you like the trifling intellectual lightweight you most certainly are. So, thank you for that reminder.
legion wrote:My theory is Kim and his sister do not want to spend the rest of their lives looking over their shoulder, and Kim doesn't want to spend his life walking around factories pointing at things. His dad died an alcoholic, the only fun he gets is watching things blow up every now and then, and his sister is bored with herding men in big hats.
Kim Jong-un was never destined to rule North Korea. It was never preordained he would be the one to accelerate the isolated nation’s nuclear weapons program, and force the US president, Donald Trump, to sit down for a meeting of equals.
But through a combination of ruthless ambition and luck, Kim achieved what no other leader of North Korea has, recognition as the head of a nuclear power and international statesman. The boy dictator went head-to-head with Trump and won.
[...]
“The goal for Kim Jong-un now is to get economic support, in terms of financial flows, blunting sanctions, and attracting investment in the special economic zones,” said Scott Snyder, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. There are likely to be summits with more world leaders, including Russian president Vladimir Putin and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, to “further Kim’s standing as an international statesman”, Snyder added.
Even if Kim agrees to dismantle rocket testing facilities, as Trump has claimed, it would probably only scratch the surface, according to Snyder.
There are signs that Washington’s “maximum pressure” policy is already cracking under Kim’s diplomatic push. China, which accounts for over 90% of trade with the North, is reportedly relaxing its enforcement of sanctions and South Korean companies are eager to begin investing.
All of this has validated Kim’s strategy of taking big gambles, since each one has so far paid off. Kim gained legitimacy in his meeting with Trump, while the US walked away with a vague commitment that North Korea has said before, only to reverse course later. The document Trump and Kim signed, in the midst of a great deal of theatrics, confirmed positions North Korea has been espousing for years.
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