SpaceX Drogon 2: First manned flight tonight?

[Grumpy Gramps]

Live stream from NASA will start around midnight JST tonight, lift off around 4:00am JST on Sunday morning, if my time difference googlification is correct.

NASA live stream --> there

[Grumpy Gramps]

So far, so good, looks like a smooth ride.

Still very cramped quarters for the two insitters. No kitchenette to fry an egg, no outhouse. It must be a huge challenge to endure, being strapped down to your seat for a 19 hour flight. In that rspect, space travel has made no progress since Gemini.

But nice to hear good news from Murica for a change.

[Mike Oxlong]

Gonna be some docking and whatnot...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyNl87mXOkc

[matsuki]

The trampoline works!

[Buraku]

Is Tesla bigger than Toyota or not? Well, it's complicated https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... mplicated/

[matsuki]

Toyota is still balls deep in their hydrogen fuel cell future that's not happening. All my money is on TESLA. If Toyota had any sense, they would be licensing Tesla tech and leveraging the supercharging network. They must realize they can't compete at this point.

"There isn’t a single person who thinks that simply because Tesla’s market cap has come close to that of Toyota, that Tesla is a company that is on par with Toyota,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo.

"However, if you look 10 years down the road and factor in extreme expectations, $1,000 a share or $1,100 may be appropriate.”

TESLA...for some reason people keep thinking it's just a car company...

https://www.popularmechanics.com/scienc ... tery-farm/

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesl ... d-battery/

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/06/08/tes ... vr6NO8ESJI

[Russell]

Is 2020 the Year of Solid-State Batteries for EVs?

Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries have led the EV market since their revival in the late-2000s due to their high energy density, cycling ability, and light weight. However, conventional Li-ion battery technology may be nearing full potential, and solid-state batteries are on the horizon. Major automakers like Ford, Hyundai, Nissan, Toyota, and Volkswagen are investing in solid-state battery research, as are some Chinese EV companies and Fisker. Production release dates vary, but it is possible a solid-state battery powered EV could reach the market in 2020 if Toyota meets its target. However, most automakers are aiming to get into the market between 2022 and 2025.

[...]

If solid-state batteries can meet expectations in the next 3-5 years, the technology could drastically change the vehicle market. EVs would become price competitive sooner than expected, have higher range capabilities, and be a less bulky component of the vehicle.

Companies like Tesla have doubled down on conventional Li-ion batteries, but solid-state batteries have a strong disruption potential on the EV market.

Of course, nothing will stop Tesla from using solid-state batteries once they become available, but for the time being electric cars are not competitive with gasoline cars, especially at current oil prices.

[Grumpy Gramps]

A German professor (Harald Lesch) has relatively recently explained a problem with electric cars. If all cars were electric and in the evening a small percentage (about 2%) of owners would want to speed charge their cars between dinner and going out, the electric capacity needed would exceed the capacity available in Germany by a factor of six, so they would basically bring the whole grid to its knees six times And that is Germany, not Burkina Faso or some such.

Fuel cells, while difficult to keep from leaking, don't have that problem. So they are, maybe, not dead just yet.

For those, who do German, here's the video:

[Russell]

A German professor (Harald Lesch) has relatively recently explained a problem with electric cars. If all cars were electric and in the evening a small percentage (about 2%) of owners would want to speed charge their cars between dinner and going out, the electric capacity needed would exceed the capacity available in Germany by a factor of six, so they would basically bring the whole grid to its knees six times And that is Germany, not Burkina Faso or some such.

Fuel cells, while difficult to keep from leaking, don't have that problem. So they are, maybe, not dead just yet.

For those, who do German, here's the video:

The professor made the assumption that people will charge electric cars in the same way as they fill up their gasoline cars, but it is not necessarily an argument against electric cars.

One can imagine solutions, like storing electricity at speed-charging points so that the net is not needed in the first place. Also, speed-charging is only needed for people who are traveling, but for general use trickle-charging will be perfectly fine. And even for traveling people, there are already solutions envisioned of inductive circuitry embedded in roads, so that electric cars can be charged while driving.

[matsuki]

nothing will stop Tesla from using solid-state batteries once they become available, but for the time being electric cars are not competitive with gasoline cars, especially at current oil prices.

Model 3/Model Y are definitely competitive and the price continues to drop. You need to factor cost of ownership, elec vs fuel cost...now and the near future, the massive difference maintenance costs, and resale value. Doesn't make sense to buy a new gas vehicle unless it is a kei or some unique circumstance.

A German professor (Harald Lesch) has relatively recently explained a problem with electric cars. If all cars were electric and in the evening a small percentage (about 2%) of owners would want to speed charge their cars between dinner and going out, the electric capacity needed would exceed the capacity available in Germany by a factor of six, so they would basically bring the whole grid to its knees six times And that is Germany, not Burkina Faso or some such.

Fuel cells, while difficult to keep from leaking, don't have that problem. So they are, maybe, not dead just yet.

For those, who do German, here's the video:

The professor made the assumption that people will charge electric cars in the same way as they fill up their gasoline cars, but it is not necessarily an argument against electric cars.

One can imagine solutions, like storing electricity at speed-charging points so that the net is not needed in the first place. Also, speed-charging is only needed for people who are traveling, but for general use trickle-charging will be perfectly fine. And even for traveling people, there are already solutions envisioned of inductive circuitry embedded in roads, so that electric cars can be charged while driving.

RIght, this is simply not a likely situation. That being said, If you check the links I posted, you'll see Tesla is selling massive batteries to replace the peaker plants that come into play when there is a massive surge in demand that exceeds the generation capacity. The one at an Aussie Uni is making them crazy money each month as the Tesla "autobidder" software sells off it's stored energy when there is demand and then recharges when demand/price drop. Talk about a money printer. The other potential is every vehicle out there plugged in that is not in use, putting their stored power back into the grid using the same software. It doesn't make sense currently due to how batteries are limited to how many cycles they can last BUT it's already been leaked that new "million mile" batteries have been created where the limit on cycles and degradation are no longer constraints. I have a ton of my money invested in Tesla so I follow the bleeding edge of what's going on.

[Russell]

nothing will stop Tesla from using solid-state batteries once they become available, but for the time being electric cars are not competitive with gasoline cars, especially at current oil prices.

Model 3/Model Y are definitely competitive and the price continues to drop. You need to factor cost of ownership, elec vs fuel cost...now and the near future, the massive difference maintenance costs, and resale value. Doesn't make sense to buy a new gas vehicle unless it is a kei or some unique circumstance.

Cost of ownership is indeed important. Are you sure you took into account the need to replace batteries after a certain number of charging cycles in 10 years or less?

A German professor (Harald Lesch) has relatively recently explained a problem with electric cars. If all cars were electric and in the evening a small percentage (about 2%) of owners would want to speed charge their cars between dinner and going out, the electric capacity needed would exceed the capacity available in Germany by a factor of six, so they would basically bring the whole grid to its knees six times And that is Germany, not Burkina Faso or some such.

Fuel cells, while difficult to keep from leaking, don't have that problem. So they are, maybe, not dead just yet.

For those, who do German, here's the video:

The professor made the assumption that people will charge electric cars in the same way as they fill up their gasoline cars, but it is not necessarily an argument against electric cars.

One can imagine solutions, like storing electricity at speed-charging points so that the net is not needed in the first place. Also, speed-charging is only needed for people who are traveling, but for general use trickle-charging will be perfectly fine. And even for traveling people, there are already solutions envisioned of inductive circuitry embedded in roads, so that electric cars can be charged while driving.

RIght, this is simply not a likely situation. That being said, If you check the links I posted, you'll see Tesla is selling massive batteries to replace the peaker plants that come into play when there is a massive surge in demand that exceeds the generation capacity. The one at an Aussie Uni is making them crazy money each month as the Tesla "autobidder" software sells off it's stored energy when there is demand and then recharges when demand/price drop. Talk about a money printer. The other potential is every vehicle out there plugged in that is not in use, putting their stored power back into the grid using the same software. It doesn't make sense currently due to how batteries are limited to how many cycles they can last BUT it's already been leaked that new "million mile" batteries have been created where the limit on cycles and degradation are no longer constraints. I have a ton of my money invested in Tesla so I follow the bleeding edge of what's going on.

I agree (again) that the technology is promising, because electrical motors are so much simpler than gasoline engines, and that includes the whole drive train; also EVs require much less maintenance.

The only limitation are the current batteries. What million-mile batteries do you refer to? I guess you mean solid state batteries, or batteries in which carbon sheets are used? The link I posted claims that that is not Tesla's strongest point, since they rely on conventional battery technology for the time being.

Anyway, I'll continue to drive my 22-year old gasoline van until an electric alternative is available at reasonable prices. Nissan had an electric van, but at a price of more than 4 million yen I'll pass that one. Apparently it didn't sell well, because they terminated it recently.

I may replace my wife's kei, however, with another gasoline kei, when it is at the end of its lifetime, because prices of some of the new ones are pretty low. I mean less than 1 million yen is ridiculous.

[Grumpy Gramps]

Them litium batteries are a mess as well, they really have to go. If we want clean energy, we cannot turn a blind eye to the abhorrent ecological catastrophe that happens in lithum mines. It is no different from sendig our trash to $poor_country and then boast about what a clean place our place is, way better than e.g. $poor_country.

[matsuki]

You guys are asking the right questions....but when you're as serious as Musk is, you solve these issues quicker than the public even understand the issues....

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-529 ... 20lifespan.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto ... SKBN22Q1WC

For good measure, another Tesla dude started a company to handle battery recycling:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/06/tesla-c ... evada.html
http://redwoodmaterials.com/

I may replace my wife's kei, however, with another gasoline kei, when it is at the end of its lifetime, because prices of some of the new ones are pretty low. I mean less than 1 million yen is ridiculous.

Indeed, Kei's are a unique situation....though I decided against getting one after seeing the minor accidents in them that resulted in death/serious injuries. (Tesla's are the safest cars in the world...)

[matsuki]

Why I own the stock, keep buying more, and have one on order:

[matsuki]

US-Tesla-share-price-2020-02-04-9-51am[1].png

Yeeehaw!!!