Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster!!!

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

Long term predictions are just that: long term predictions, and they are for the most part unreliable.

Cobblers...I predict Japan will be prone to earthquakes for millions of years to come. Can't get much longer term than that.
And, as an added bonus because I don't have any steak knives handy, I'll even go further...I predict Japan will have earthquakes daily for millions of years to come (not all of them will be detectable, though).

There, stick that up your pipe and smoke it Nostradamus...

[Yokohammer]

Cobblers...I predict Japan will be prone to earthquakes for millions of years to come. Can't get much longer term than that.
And, as an added bonus because I don't have any steak knives handy, I'll even go further...I predict Japan will have earthquakes daily for millions of years to come (not all of them will be detectable, though).

There, stick that up your pipe and smoke it Nostradamus...

Incredible!

A true prophet and seer among men!

[AML]

At the end of the day, even if they could predict what difference would it make?

It doesn't stop Japan from being where it is.

So rather than spend time and money on predictions, they should spend it on tearing down crappy old building that are a hazard and build newer quake proof ones.

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

Incredible!

A true prophet and seer among men!

Wish I was...nothing says "Profit" quite as well as "Prophet."


[color="White"](Unfortunately, my utter lack of business acumen and deviousnesses allows me to predict that I would be a failure starting up my own religion/soothsaying caper.)[/color]

[Mike Oxlong]

Via Anarchy Japan:

The Yomiuri has just completed a six part series focusing on delays in implementing emergency steps by the government and Tokyo Electric Power Co. to deal with the unprecedented nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi. I want to list each of these articles and give some bullet points from each...

[vitellus]

So talking about predicting earthquakes, how strongly will the Tokai one be felt in the center of Tokyo where most people work during the daytime? what Shindo scale can we expect?

I'm trying to decide what preparations to make - should I be carrying a whistle at all times in case I get buried in rubble or will the shaking be comparable to what we experienced on March 11?

Of course we can never know for sure, but it can't hurt to speculate. There is a lot of talk about what the effects will be in Shizuoka as the epicenter is expected to be there (160km from Tokyo, the Magnitude is expected to be 8.4) but not much about how it will be felt in Tokyo.

[Iraira]

So talking about predicting earthquakes, how strongly will the Tokai one be felt in the center of Tokyo where most people work during the daytime? what Shindo scale can we expect?

I'm trying to decide what preparations to make - should I be carrying a whistle at all times in case I get buried in rubble or will the shaking be comparable to what we experienced on March 11?

Of course we can never know for sure, but it can't hurt to speculate. There is a lot of talk about what the effects will be in Shizuoka as the epicenter is expected to be there (160km from Tokyo, the Magnitude is expected to be 8.4) but not much about how it will be felt in Tokyo.

Don't take this as me ripping on you, and it really isn't an answer to your questions, but, do you plan on walking around Tokyo for the next 20 years with a whistle wrapped around your neck and carrying a 10 liter jug of water? I don't recall what the intensity was in Tokyo on March 11th, but suffice it to say, when a humdinger hits Tokyo or closer to Tokyo, it will probably be much worse than was felt in Tokyo on March 11th. Truth is, no one really knows where or when or how bad it will be.
Best one really can do is make sure they have somethings (water, emergency provisions, flashlights, etc.) stashed away at home and at work (since that is where you spend most of your time). Once those things are taken care of, and some plan for where to meet is set for you and your loved ones, just enjoy life as much as possible.

[omae mona]

Of course we can never know for sure, but it can't hurt to speculate.

Yeah, chicks are really going to dig that whistle around your neck, especially when you explain why you have it. It projects confidence and manliness.

[Coligny]

Yeah, chicks are really going to dig that whistle around your neck, especially when you explain why you have it. It projects confidence and manliness.

Still better than cars with rear backup cameras... (neener neener...)

[vitellus]

Yeah, chicks are really going to dig that whistle around your neck, especially when you explain why you have it. It projects confidence and manliness.

What if I ditched the whistle and attached a small shovel for digging out people buried under the rubble to my belt? what would that do to my manliness?

This document about what to do in case of an earthquake says that:

"In the event of the Tokai Earthquake, Tokyo is also expected to suffer the tremors of the 5th Lower to 5th Upper degrees on the Japanese seismic intensity scale."

I haven't been able to confirm that information anywhere else. A post on another forum said that it would be felt as an Upper 6 in the Tokyo area.

[Yokohammer]

This document about what to do in case of an earthquake says that:

"In the event of the Tokai Earthquake, Tokyo is also expected to suffer the tremors of the 5th Lower to 5th Upper degrees on the Japanese seismic intensity scale."

I haven't been able to confirm that information anywhere else. A post on another forum said that it would be felt as an Upper 6 in the Tokyo area.

If it's a direct hit with a magnitude above 7.0, it's likely to be considerably bigger than shindo-5. I go with the shindo-6 theory.

Just recently experience shindo 6+ myself, and I can confidently tell you that I would not want to be in central Tokyo when that happens.

[Coligny]

What if I ditched the whistle and attached a small shovel for digging out people buried under the rubble to my belt? what would that do to my manliness?

This document about what to do in case of an earthquake says that:

"In the event of the Tokai Earthquake, Tokyo is also expected to suffer the tremors of the 5th Lower to 5th Upper degrees on the Japanese seismic intensity scale."

I haven't been able to confirm that information anywhere else. A post on another forum said that it would be felt as an Upper 6 in the Tokyo area.

I don't think that kind of information is of any interest.
Unless you are penny pinching on the design of a bridge or a building, precise quantification of an expected quake is meaningless.

You expect that the crap is going to hit the fan, be it shindo 5-6-7 you know it's going to be big and devastating. As far as personnal preparation goes, I don't see what you can set up differently for a level 6 that you wouldn't do for a level 5. Beside there is no real way to know what to expect anyway...

[Kuang_Grade]

Judging by the various tsunami videos, it seems that most structures survived the tohoku earthquake (ie they may have suffered serious structural damage from the quake but did not fail outright), so that can give folks some hope that the post Kobe quake building requirements hopefully will make a big difference when the big one hits Tokyo. But that said, given the density of Tokyo, even if most modern buildings surviving the initial quake, a post quake fire is likely to be as great, if not greater, threat to life as the earthquake itself.

[Coligny]

Judging by the various tsunami videos, it seems that most structures survived the tohoku earthquake (ie they may have suffered serious structural damage from the quake but did not fail outright), so that can give folks some hope that the post Kobe quake building requirements hopefully will make a big difference when the big one hits Tokyo. But that said, given the density of Tokyo, even if most modern buildings surviving the initial quake, a post quake fire is likely to be as great, if not greater, threat to life as the earthquake itself.

Dood, not the same kind of building I think... Most structures were a pair of stories high, few concrete buildings and small reinforced concret bulding are quite strong even without quakeproofing in mind. But mostly wooden house that would have just missed a sail or a rudder to be safe... as they were seemingly quite seaworthy... For things absolutely not designed to even move...

Tokyo... You got all height of buildings, meaning different frequency of resonnance, meaning much more change to have one topling on another... plus umptennth level of highway bridge, rail bridge, everything packed together without any common sense... Even in case of fire I'm sure the great London Fire would look like a minor annoyance...

[matsuki]

everything packed together without any common sense... Even in case of fire I'm sure the great London Fire would look like a minor annoyance...

Quoted for truth

[vitellus]

Good point about fires. I guess they are the best reason to prepare an emergency pack. A couple of years ago there was a safety event in the exhibition space in Shinjuku station. One booth had a computer that could display the fire hazards in case of a major earthquake per neighbourhood. You told the guy where you lived and he brought up a color coded map showing the fire risk (not good for my area). I wonder if it exists online...?

However, how inflammable is modern Tokyo really? fire was the main cause of death during the great kanto quake of 1923 but there a lot less wooden buildings / neighborhoods now than then.

[Coligny]

Good point about fires. I guess they are the best reason to prepare an emergency pack. A couple of years ago there was a safety event in the exhibition space in Shinjuku station. One booth had a computer that could display the fire hazards in case of a major earthquake per neighbourhood. You told the guy where you lived and he brought up a color coded map showing the fire risk (not good for my area). I wonder if it exists online...?

However, how inflammable is modern Tokyo really? fire was the main cause of death during the great kanto quake of 1923 but there a lot less wooden buildings / neighborhoods now than then.

If I was you city dweller, i'll invest on a chemical loo ASAP... (with matching chemicals). Between the risk of supply line collapse and the electricity shutdown/blackouts (no power for the water pumps) you might find the lack of woods quite disturbing.

[Coligny]

Others things to think aboot, (sorry, this is more an "end of the world" survival list... difficult to switch from the comfort of the cold war to today's uncertainties...):

Top 100 Items to Disappear First During a National Emergency

1. Generators (Good ones cost dearly. Gas storage, risky. Noisy...target of thieves; maintenance etc.)
2. Water Filters/Purifiers
3. Portable Toilets
4. Seasoned Firewood. Wood takes about 6 - 12 months to become dried, for home uses.
5. Lamp Oil, Wicks, Lamps (First Choice: Buy CLEAR oil. If scarce, stockpile ANY!)
6. Coleman Fuel. Impossible to stockpile too much.
7. Guns, Ammunition, Pepper Spray, Knives, Clubs, Bats & Slingshots.
8. Hand-can openers, & hand egg beaters, whisks.
9. Honey/Syrups/white, brown sugar
10. Rice - Beans - Wheat
11. Vegetable Oil (for cooking) Without it food burns/must be boiled etc.,)
12. Charcoal, Lighter Fluid (Will become scarce suddenly)
13. Water Containers (Urgent Item to obtain.) Any size. Small: HARD CLEAR PLASTIC ONLY - note - food grade if for drinking.
16. Propane Cylinders (Urgent: Definite shortages will occur.)
17. Survival Guide Book.
18. Mantles: Aladdin, Coleman, etc. (Without this item, longer-term lighting is difficult.)
19. Baby Supplies: Diapers/formula. ointments/aspirin, etc.
20. Washboards, Mop Bucket w/wringer (for Laundry)
21. Cookstoves (Propane, Coleman & Kerosene)
22. Vitamins
23. Propane Cylinder Handle-Holder (Urgent: Small canister use is dangerous without this item)
24. Feminine Hygiene/Haircare/Skin products.
25. Thermal underwear (Tops & Bottoms)
26. Bow saws, axes and hatchets, Wedges (also, honing oil)
27. Aluminum Foil Reg. & Heavy Duty (Great Cooking and Barter Item)
28. Gasoline Containers (Plastic & Metal)
29. Garbage Bags (Impossible To Have Too Many).
30. Toilet Paper, Kleenex, Paper Towels
31. Milk - Powdered & Condensed (Shake Liquid every 3 to 4 months)
32. Garden Seeds (Non-Hybrid) (A MUST)
33. Clothes pins/line/hangers (A MUST)
34. Coleman's Pump Repair Kit
35. Tuna Fish (in oil)
36. Fire Extinguishers (or..large box of Baking Soda in every room)
37. First aid kits
38. Batteries (all sizes...buy furthest-out for Expiration Dates)
39. Garlic, spices & vinegar, baking supplies
40. Big Dogs (and plenty of dog food)
41. Flour, yeast & salt
42. Matches. {"Strike Anywhere" preferred.) Boxed, wooden matches will go first
43. Writing paper/pads/pencils, solar calculators
44. Insulated ice chests (good for keeping items from freezing in Wintertime.)
45. Workboots, belts, Levis & durable shirts
46. Flashlights/LIGHTSTICKS & torches, "No. 76 Dietz" Lanterns
47. Journals, Diaries & Scrapbooks (jot down ideas, feelings, experience; Historic Times)
48. Garbage cans Plastic (great for storage, water, transporting - if with wheels)
49. Men's Hygiene: Shampoo, Toothbrush/paste, Mouthwash/floss, nail clippers, etc
50. Cast iron cookware (sturdy, efficient)
51. Fishing supplies/tools
52. Mosquito coils/repellent, sprays/creams
53. Duct Tape
54. Tarps/stakes/twine/nails/rope/spikes
55. Candles
56. Laundry Detergent (liquid)
57. Backpacks, Duffel Bags
58. Garden tools & supplies
59. Scissors, fabrics & sewing supplies
60. Canned Fruits, Veggies, Soups, stews, etc.
61. Bleach (plain, NOT scented: 4 to 6% sodium hypochlorite)
62. Canning supplies, (Jars/lids/wax)
63. Knives & Sharpening tools: files, stones, steel
64. Bicycles...Tires/tubes/pumps/chains, etc
65. Sleeping Bags & blankets/pillows/mats
66. Carbon Monoxide Alarm (battery powered)
67. Board Games, Cards, Dice
68. d-con Rat poison, MOUSE PRUFE II, Roach Killer
69. Mousetraps, Ant traps & cockroach magnets
70. Paper plates/cups/utensils (stock up, folks)
71. Baby wipes, oils, waterless & Antibacterial soap (saves a lot of water)
72. Rain gear, rubberized boots, etc.
73. Shaving supplies (razors & creams, talc, after shave)
74. Hand pumps & siphons (for water and for fuels)
75. Soysauce, vinegar, bullions/gravy/soupbase
76. Reading glasses
77. Chocolate/Cocoa/Tang/Punch (water enhancers)
78. "Survival-in-a-Can"
79. Woolen clothing, scarves/ear-muffs/mittens
80. Boy Scout Handbook, / also Leaders Catalog
81. Roll-on Window Insulation Kit (MANCO)
82. Graham crackers, saltines, pretzels, Trail mix/Jerky
83. Popcorn, Peanut Butter, Nuts
84. Socks, Underwear, T-shirts, etc. (extras)
85. Lumber (all types)
86. Wagons & carts (for transport to and from)
87. Cots & Inflatable mattress's
88. Gloves: Work/warming/gardening, etc.
89. Lantern Hangers
90. Screen Patches, glue, nails, screws,, nuts & bolts
91. Teas
92. Coffee
93. Cigarettes
94. Wine/Liquors (for bribes, medicinal, etc,)
95. Paraffin wax
96. Glue, nails, nuts, bolts, screws, etc.
97. Chewing gum/candies
98. Atomizers (for cooling/bathing)
99. Hats & cotton neckerchiefs
100. Livestock

[Catoneinutica]

Coligny, did you cut-and-paste that excellent, comprehensive list, or did you actually type it out?

If the former: thanks!

If the latter:

[Iraira]

No automatic weapons, blow-up dolls, or howitzers in the list.....far from complete I'd say.

edit: didn't see #7, but it really just specifies "guns", and we want to defend ourselves from brain-eating zombies after all.

[Coligny]

Coligny, did you cut-and-paste that excellent, comprehensive list, or did you actually type it out?

If the former: thanks!

If the latter:

It's one of those list that turn around since years in survivalist newsgroup/maillists/forum and get refined with the time and new happenstance. Bad luck this one don't have a version number.

[Bucky]

Not so good.

A pair of thin robots on treads sent to explore buildings inside Japan's crippled nuclear reactor came back Monday with disheartening news: Radiation levels are far too high for repair crews to go inside.

TEPCO, eternal optimists. Me thinks they be dreamers

Nevertheless, officials remained hopeful they can stick to their freshly minted "roadmap" for cleaning up the radiation leak and stabilizing the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant by year's end so they can begin returning tens of thousands of evacuees to their homes.

More here

[Mulboyne]

School begins in Sendai.

[Yokohammer]

Coligny's survival list made my head hurt.

The real problem with disaster preparedness for me is the amount of energy it takes to get and remain prepared. That's a big chunk of your life gone.

For example, you can't just buy a generator and some gasoline and stick it in the shed until a disaster occurs. Chances are it won't work. You have to establish an upkeep and maintenance routine to check the oil, test run the generator at regular intervals, and change out the old gas for fresh. The same goes for emergency water and food supplies. The same goes for batteries. Right on down the list. Your whole life would be dedicated to survival ... and then you die of old age (or a stroke, or cancer, or whatever ...).

I'm all for preparedness (the generator and gas are in the shed), but I'm trying to distill it down to the bare essentials so it will save my life without taking up most of what's left of it. That is turning out to be quite a challenge. And of course what's essential will depend on where and how you live, so there's no one-size-fits-all solution.

I just hope there's not another Big One before I can figure this out.

[AML]

If your going to live like that you may as well live off the grid in the boonies somewhere. You cant live like that in a city.

But yea, considering how dangerously japan is situated on the planet (between the plates) people should defo have a higher level of awareness and readiness. And in my opinion most city folk don't have any.

Ive asked a lot of Jp people what kind of preparations they have in case of a major quake in the city. Most didn't even have a plan, never mind actual provisions.

[cstaylor]

The real problem with disaster preparedness for me is the amount of energy it takes to get and remain prepared. That's a big chunk of your life gone.

The list could be boiled down to two options:
- Shotgun and plenty of ammunition
- Detailed map showing all of your well-prepared neighbors

[Yokohammer]

The list could be boiled down to two options:
- Shotgun and plenty of ammunition
- Detailed map showing all of your well-prepared neighbors

Now why didn't I think of that?!
Could have saved myself some time and money.

[Yokohammer]

If your going to live like that you may as well live off the grid in the boonies somewhere. You cant live like that in a city.

Off the grid?

Here's something to keep in mind: Big disaster = no grid.
That includes in the city.

[Coligny]

Coligny's survival list made my head hurt.

The real problem with disaster preparedness for me is the amount of energy it takes to get and remain prepared. That's a big chunk of your life gone.

Remember, that list is really closer to an "all nukes have been fired" scenario than a regular emergency, even if that Tsunami showed us that beside the fact it was an extremely limited zone of devastation, rescue, food and heating was excessively problematic in the first weeks.

Plenty can become part of usual life with minor inconvenience. The generator for example... with rolling blackout, it won't be an emergency item anymore. It might become a daily use thingy.

For the livestock... ask Greji...

For me the hardest part is to include the calorimate stock into the pattern... That stuff aint no yummy...

Some things can be masqueraded: instead of emergency evacuation training, call it a camping trip with the kids (cats here, and they hate that, especially the TV addicted one).

For everything else, put 1 day aside every 3 month to check stock level, track expiry dates. For anybody in the country side I don't think it's much of a big deal. People living in tornado valley certainly do it too. Modern life is extremly confortable, but I know for sure that even my grand parents had to do stuff on daily routine that we now have the luxury/foolishness to categorise as emergency preparedness. Now... once again... for city dwellers... better work on your looting skills...

[Yokohammer]

The generator for example... with rolling blackout, it won't be an emergency item anymore. It might become a daily use thingy.

This was on my mind when I bought the thing. Once we get past the critical initial recovery period, there's a possibility that rolling blackouts will be implemented in the Tohoku region as well.

Modern life is extremly confortable, but I know for sure that even my grand parents had to do stuff on daily routine that we now have the luxury/foolishness to categorise as emergency preparedness. Now... once again... for city dwellers... better work on your looting skills...

This is so true. After the quake we were without water for 11 days (and then 5 more days after the big aftershock), so going round the corner with buckets and poly tanks to get water from Kato-san's well became a daily routine. But that was just daily life a few decades ago. At least we had a well to get water from ... can't count on that in the city.

For me the hardest part is to include the calorimate stock into the pattern... That stuff aint no yummy...

It will be after you haven't eaten for three days. It's either that or the cats. Stock up on Calorie Mate ... your cats will thank you for it. ](And don't forget the cat food)[/SIZE]