The Myth of Japan's Failure

[Dreamy_Peach]

This is a very interesting article by Eamonn Fingleton, who argues that "Japan should be held up as a model, not an admonition".

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/opinion/sunday/the-true-story-of-japans-economic-success.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

Friends of mine have been flagging it on Facebook but I haven't seen it mentioned yet on FG - I have been away so may have missed it, even though I ran some searches prior to posting.

[legion]

yes yes and yes

that "lost decade" story is a lazy myth, during the 90s a Japanese consortium launched DVD technology, now ubiquitous and a huge boost to entertainment industries around the world, but things like this fail to register.

The other side of the story is the work environment has got a lot tougher, the same long hours, but without the bonuses.

[Tsuru]

Is the point of this article that if 20-odd years down the road the economic situation of the West looks anything like Japan does now we should consider ourselves lucky? I think I might agree with that.

[Coligny]

Minus the concrete beaches... and a couple of powerplant...

[persephone]

Except the author is a nutbar.

Blindside: Why Japan Is Still on Track to Overtake the U.S. By the Year 200
http://www.******.com/Blindside-Japan-Still-Track-Overtake/dp/0395633168/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&qid=1326213861&sr=8-7

http://www.******.com/Eamonn-Fingleton/e/B001IQZIN4/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_pop_1

He's cherry-picking statistics (which everyone does, but it seems pretty extreme in this example.)

Also, just because Japan still has a relatively large middle class doesn't mean there aren't major economic issues.

Japan Tries to Face Up to Growing Poverty Problem
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/22/world/asia/22poverty.html

Women in the workplace
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/04/can-women-be-a-catalyst-for-japans-renewal/236820/

[matsuki]

LOL, has this d00d ever even lived/worked here? Cherry picking statistics is one thing...joining the rat...err mice race in the land of four seasons is another.

[Mulboyne]

I'm very happy to counter excessive claims about Japan's demise but Fingleton has been unconvincing for some time now.

I must admit, I hadn't heard before his claim that Japan isn't worried about low population growth because it is really a rational response to concerns over food security. That's some intellectual leap.

[Jack]

I have said this many times before that Japan, despite 20 years of poor economic growth, is still much better (economically) than many western country, including mine. This author may be cherry picking statistics but the plain facts are: 1) Japan's unemployment is much lower than in western countries; 2) Household savings is still more than three times its GDP ($17 trillion give or take); 3) General lifestyle of the population is more affluent than in western countries; 4) Healthcare has been improved and not deteriorated. These are the basics that a population needs and based on those statistics the author is right.

[Mulboyne]

I have said this many times before that Japan, despite 20 years of poor economic growth, is still much better (economically) than many western country, including mine.

If Fingleton just limited himself to saying that Japan is faring much better than people overseas might imagine, given the way the economy is frequently described, then he might have a case to argue.

Instead, he claims that Japan's growth has been deliberately understated and provides no evidence beyond a few anecdotes which are mainly about Tokyo rather than Japan.

[matsuki]

1) Japan's unemployment is much lower than in western countries]

Yeah, all those oyaji directing traffic in parking lots and douzoing you to the doors and escalators keeps them from a life of crime.

2) Household savings is still more than three times its GDP ($17 trillion give or take)]

Stuffed in futons or put away in family safes....waiting for the next disaster to be swept away?

3) General lifestyle of the population is more affluent than in western countries]

4) Healthcare has been improved and not deteriorated.

Improved, yes...reliable/safe/modern? Bwaahahahahhahaha

[gaijinpunch]

The problem is not the present so much as it is the future. I actually had a pretty interesting exchange over this very article on FB.

The main reason Japan enjoys an affluent lifestyle right now is b/c of the savings -- the savings are not a product of the good economy. They are an artifact of the culture.

We all know there's plenty of things Japan has done right -- I venture that most of us, if not all, would not live here if we thought otherwise. The scary shit is the future. Japan is losing it's graps in industries it used to dominate. In 2005 I would have laughed if someone told me an American mobile phone would be a contender in the Japanese market. Same goes for western-developed games. Look at the Sony thread for more on that debacle. These are signs that they aren't the power house they once were. These things aren't cyclical... you have it, until you don't.

The other two topics that I think are going to blast Japan's feet off have been done to death here so no real reason to get into them. But for the record: lack of internationalization, and the education system (which also lacks internationalization). Until even the most top-rated schools become something other than a salaryman factory, Japan is going to slip more and more, and w/ the aging population it's going to be quite a painful ride down.

The cherry on top is the financial sector. W/o parliament making a lot of changes, the gaijin money that left in 2008 is not going to come back. That's going to hurt everyone as that shit trickles down, and smells bad.

My 2 yen. The ride could last a while... Japan is old money, and it's got a lot of it. But the govt. will be getting it's piece of that as it goes down the ancestral ladder, and eventually, if this place doesn't buck up the spiral is going to become a reality.

[IparryU]

Then I walk around and think, shit, everyone's got money, even the homeless aren't on smack and heroin, everything works, there are loads of old people's homes, hospitals are generally good, there's enough food, and I think, what memo did I miss here?

loads of fully occupied old people's homes, same with daycare. there is not enough to go around.

[tone]

what gaijinpunch and the indian said

my piece on this is i feel like outside and inside japan, people like to use past stats to predict the future, mainly in the areas of life expectancy and personal savings

life expectancy

as if my generation of early 30's people are going to live as long as their grandparents just because they are also japanese, but people act like japan is a model because the older generation who grew up on fish and seaweed in small amounts has been living into their 90s. my generation fucking eats shit

savings

the people with the huge savings seem more in the bubble generation - people my age get paid shite - seems like i barely know people who make over 40man a month, i mean i do, but most dudes on my baseball team are expected to pay rent, eat out at spendy izakayas and dress well for fucking 25man - so i would be surprised how much they save. i'm all about savings, but i wonder if just like the price of canned coffee if these 25man jobs are paying the same as people made in the 90s even though other costs have risen.

i also agree about the high employment maybe being good for consumer spending, but thats on the back of savings from the bubble. once that dwindles down as it will with all these new shitty paying jobs, then the fun starts because families wont be able to spend on as much discretionary shit

i just think its trendy to laud the japanese these days because their food is delicious, and for the most people, gaijins abroad are probably impressed on the impression that well dressed japanese people give (not going to argue that there are some sharp looking people here)

my 2c

jack, you dont live here now right? i think its easy to hype up your thinking about japan when youre not in the middle of it, seeing just how ghetto so many of lifestyles are here. i guess its all relative too, maybe everyone in your town in canada or wherever are super ghetto

[Captain Japan]

Interesting that Ivan Hall gets mentioned. He wrote "Bamboozled!: How America Loses the Intellectual Game With Japan and Its Implications for Our Future in Asia." It took the very same angle back in 2002.

Japan's lost decade turns into two, with probably a third is just around the corner, and I'm sure another one of these articles will surface as well.

[IparryU]

Yeah, all those oyaji directing traffic in parking lots and douzoing you to the doors and escalators keeps them from a life of crime.



Stuffed in futons or put away in family safes....waiting for the next disaster to be swept away?







Improved, yes...reliable/safe/modern? Bwaahahahahhahaha

ya... my thoughts exactly.

i like the idea of giving "dont do shit jobs" to people cause it keeps them off the street.

keeping your money at home is retarded. i wonder how much money was picked up from looters in the Fuk-zone...

hospitals? meical care? they are very polite and have a very nice check in procedure, but when i go see a dr., i dont want to hear that stress caused my rib to get cracked, i dont want no fucking powder medicine that my 3 year old gets, and i sure as fuck dont want to run into the ER with my son and hear that the Dr. is on vacation and no one else at the hospital is qualified to see him (Hiroo Metro Hospital)...

People bitch about the US hospitals and letting people bleed out on the floor because they aren't insured... well... dont be a cheap ass and get covered. when you are fucked up (and insured), they will fix you.

[Samurai_Jerk]

People bitch about the US hospitals and letting people bleed out on the floor because they aren't insured... well... dont be a cheap ass and get covered. when you are fucked up (and insured), they will fix you.

Do you have any idea what medical insurance costs in the US if you just join a plan as an individual?

[jingai]

Do you have any idea what medical insurance costs in the US if you just join a plan as an individual?

Depends greatly on age, location, gender and medical history. It's possible to not be able to buy coverage at any price if you have pre-existing conditions and lapsed coverage. That changes under the new health care law.

For a 22 year old male you can get plans for around $130/mo. that include very basic medical care and emergencies. For a woman, maybe double it (unless you opt out of pregnancy-related insurance as a friend did who then went and got pregnant.) As someone in their 30s, I pay ~$40/month with my employer paying another hundred something. It's fairly minimal coverage (high co-pays and deductables) but is better coverage than pure catastrophic care. You also have to watch out for lifetime caps on pay-outs which could really get you if you lose a limb, get cancer, etc. I think the healthcare law does away with these too.

As the economic interest of the insurance companies is to deny claims, expect bruising fights to actually get your company to pay your physician. This makes me avoid medical care whenever possible as I don't have time to fight with corporate bureaucrats. I loved how during a routine physical the doctor broke down every single thing they did (eye chart vs blood pressure, etc.) and then submitted each line item to the insurance company, to try to maximize their chances of getting paid something by someone.
As I don't have coverage for vision the insurance company denied payment for the eye chart test, despite the fact that they will happily cover a physical which includes an eye chart test. Catch 22.

[matsuki]

i like the idea of giving "dont do shit jobs" to people cause it keeps them off the street.

Right...unfortunately, that mentality doesn't work the same on the island of oyagi that either refuse or are unable to actually retire.

i sure as fuck dont want to run into the ER with my son and hear that the Dr. is on vacation and no one else at the hospital is qualified to see him (Hiroo Metro Hospital)...

People bitch about the US hospitals and letting people bleed out on the floor because they aren't insured... well... dont be a cheap ass and get covered. when you are fucked up (and insured), they will fix you.

Last year one of me lemurs cut her finger open really bad....two hospitals were "closed" and the third one was like an hour wait in the ER only to have a doc (who was quite good but not a reg at this place) freak out because the hospital had no blood clotting spray/cream/etc. D00d even said something like he's worked at 28973984 different hospitals and never heard of one without it....all he could do was clean and wrap up her finger as best as he could without it and tell us to go to another ER. (...and the hospital charged her something like 20,000 Yen because they had no idea what to charge and their "computers were off for the day" and asked her to come back for change and a receipt. (was taking a piss when this happened or else I would have told em to fuck off)

Do you have any idea what medical insurance costs in the US if you just join a plan as an individual?

Last quote I got was $60/month for decent coverage and reasonable co-pays. No dental thought...but I wasn't playing hockey at the time so...

[IparryU]

Do you have any idea what medical insurance costs in the US if you just join a plan as an individual?

[quote]
via
Details At a Glance
Plan Type: PPO
Office Visit for Primary Doctor:
Find Doctors $30 Copay, Deductible waived for first 4 visits/calendar year (all physician office visits combined)
subsequent visits are subject to the copayment maximum.
Office Visit for Specialist: $30 Copay, Deductible waived for first 4 visits/calendar year (all physician office visits combined)
subsequent visits are subject to the copayment maximum.
Coinsurance: 40% after deductible
Annual Deductible: Individual:$900
Separate Prescription Drugs Deductible: None
Prescription Drugs: Generic: $10 Copay
Brand: Not Covered
Non-Formulary: Not Covered
Annual Out-of-Pocket Limit: Individual:$3,900
Includes deductible
Lifetime Maximum: Unlimited
Health Savings Account (HSA) Eligible: No
Out-of-Network Coverage: Yes (Details in plan brochure below)
Out of Country Coverage: Yes . Paid as in-network benefits if through a WorldWide BlueCard Provider (View Details)
Rate Guarantee: 6 months
Physicians
Primary Care Physician (PCP) Required: No
Specialist Referrals Required: No
Preventive Care Coverage
Periodic Health Exam: $0 Copay, Deductible waived
Periodic OB-GYN Exam: $0 Copay, Deductible waived
Well Baby Care: $0 Copay, Deductible waived
Prescription Drug Coverage
Generic Prescription Drugs: $10 Copay
Brand Prescription Drugs: Not Covered
Non-Formulary Prescription Drugs Coverage: Not Covered
Mail Order for Prescription Drugs: Generic: $20 Copay
Brand: Not Covered
Non-Formulary: Not Covered
Days Supply: 60
Separate Prescription Drugs Deductible: None
Hospital Services Coverage
Emergency Room: $100/visit (waived if admitted) plus 40% Coinsurance after deductible
Outpatient Lab/X-Ray: No Charge after copayment maximum
Outpatient Surgery: 40% Coinsurance after deductible
Hospitalization: 40% Coinsurance after deductible
Maternity Coverage
Pre & Postnatal Office Visit: Not Covered
Labor & Delivery Hospital Stay: N

[IparryU]

Last year one of me lemurs cut her finger open really bad....two hospitals were "closed" and the third one was like an hour wait in the ER only to have a doc (who was quite good but not a reg at this place) freak out because the hospital had no blood clotting spray/cream/etc. D00d even said something like he's worked at 28973984 different hospitals and never heard of one without it....all he could do was clean and wrap up her finger as best as he could without it and tell us to go to another ER. (...and the hospital charged her something like 20,000 Yen because they had no idea what to charge and their "computers were off for the day" and asked her to come back for change and a receipt. (was taking a piss when this happened or else I would have told em to fuck off)

Last quote I got was $60/month for decent coverage and reasonable co-pays. No dental thought...but I wasn't playing hockey at the time so...

When i took my son he needed an X-Ray... it was 11AM and no Dr. cause it was a Saturday... the hospital looked like a scene from Silent Hill... (i think this was said and done in another thread...) also went to the ER on another Saturday... no fuckin Dr.... only college trainees.

another time my son needed a blood test, they took the blood, but the Dr. was gone so they couldn't test it. they had to take another fresh sample when he got back, ended up he had a blood infection of 17%... anything after 10% is lethal by the minute.

Wify almost went into labor 2 months early, was on an IV for 2 months, but moved her to the old people's unit cause another girl needed a room. she ended up getting a private room cause she was a fucking psycho. my wife asked when she could move back, they said when a be opened up. they didn't know that the crazy chick moved cause her name was still on the common room door, so they apologized and moved my wife to the pediatric section whilst they prepared for her to go back to her old bed. then one mom got sick, moved the remaining 4 mothers to the pediatric and old people unit, and kept the sic mom in there with 5 empty beds... I asked the nurse why and she said that the sick mom was very rude and didn't want to move... i shook my head at the nurse and walked off.

Hospital hours are shorter than banking hours for some reason...

I went to a Health Care seminar and some Indian guy with a PhD said that there was no way that an American hospital is better than a Japanese hospital... the room sounded off with stories, etc. and the speaker mentioned that all the medical technology (machines, etc.) that Japanese manufacture, they cannot use it as the medicine required for rehab is not in Japan and all the doctors that can use it (who are Japanese) refuse to go back to Japan cause it is like downgrading. Sorta like being a chef at a 5 star hotel restaurant, then going to another restaurant to start cooking brunch... soul crushing...

end of my bitching... need a smoke.

[Mike Oxlong]

Japan's Lost Decade: All Too Real

Back in 2005 when I was working at the American Prospect we published an interesting piece by Eamonn Fingleton arguing that the idea of Japan being stuck in a lost decade was a total myth. I thought it was an intriguing argument that blended two good points with a bad one, and I don't think that's changed between 2005 and when he made it on the New York Time op-ed page over the weekend...

[Samurai_Jerk]

via
Details At a Glance

What are the monthly premiums?

[IparryU]

What are the monthly premiums?

USD109

[IparryU]

accidently hit reply and not edit...
i cant edit that post... hmmm

[matsuki]

When i took my son he needed an X-Ray... it was 11AM and no Dr. cause it was a Saturday... the hospital looked like a scene from Silent Hill... (i think this was said and done in another thread...) also went to the ER on another Saturday... no fuckin Dr.... only college trainees.

another time my son needed a blood test, they took the blood, but the Dr. was gone so they couldn't test it. they had to take another fresh sample when he got back, ended up he had a blood infection of 17%... anything after 10% is lethal by the minute.

Wify almost went into labor 2 months early, was on an IV for 2 months, but moved her to the old people's unit cause another girl needed a room. she ended up getting a private room cause she was a fucking psycho. my wife asked when she could move back, they said when a be opened up. they didn't know that the crazy chick moved cause her name was still on the common room door, so they apologized and moved my wife to the pediatric section whilst they prepared for her to go back to her old bed. then one mom got sick, moved the remaining 4 mothers to the pediatric and old people unit, and kept the sic mom in there with 5 empty beds... I asked the nurse why and she said that the sick mom was very rude and didn't want to move... i shook my head at the nurse and walked off.

Hospital hours are shorter than banking hours for some reason...

I went to a Health Care seminar and some Indian guy with a PhD said that there was no way that an American hospital is better than a Japanese hospital... the room sounded off with stories, etc. and the speaker mentioned that all the medical technology (machines, etc.) that Japanese manufacture, they cannot use it as the medicine required for rehab is not in Japan and all the doctors that can use it (who are Japanese) refuse to go back to Japan cause it is like downgrading. Sorta like being a chef at a 5 star hotel restaurant, then going to another restaurant to start cooking brunch... soul crushing...

end of my bitching... need a smoke.

Pretty much similar to my experience...would sum it up to say it's cheap and usually not to problematic for small things (though many of the docs seem to stereotype gaijin as having different bodies and as you said, the meds/equipment isn't always there because of the J-gov or what insurance won't cover) but when it comes to serious medical problems, your life is in the hands of Fukushima type responses. I'm sure there are better hospitals than what I've experienced but when this type of shit care seems to be the norm here in Tokyo and the kyukyusha is going to take you to the nearest hospital, you're fucked.

[Coligny]

Don't forget they are lying piece of shit...

noon: everything fine ?
> yes

evening meeting:
> aboot what we said at noon, we might not have exactly summed up properly the situation...

[matsuki]

Don't forget they are lying piece of shit...

noon: everything fine ?
> yes

evening meeting:
> aboot what we said at noon, we might not have exactly summed up properly the situation...

Just like Fukushima...I sense a pattern

[Coligny]

Except that unlike Fukushima, dad in law friends made sure the guy was "promoted" really far north in an inaka hospital where he had more chances to treat cows for bear wounds rather than humans for anything else...

[Taro Toporific]

Do you have any idea what medical insurance costs in the US if you just join a plan as an individual?

As a self-employed paraplegic, my monthly cost in the US would be [color="Gray"](has been)[/color] more than $2800/month for traditional health insurance, but [color="Gray"]and it's a big butt[/color] 90% of my insurance claims would be [color="Gray"](have been)[/color] denied because of "pre-existing conditions."

Recently in the USA, "catastrophic health insurance" has been offered under the aegis of individual state governments. In my state of Colorado, such insurance costs $500/month with an annual deductible of $1500, 20% co-insurance. However in reality, most doctors or hospitals will do their damnest to refuse patients with such catastrophic health insurance.

In Japan, my National Health Insurance premium runs 10-30,000yen/m ($195-390/month) depending on my income. Because I am 1-kyu (profoundly) handicapped, it's 0% deductible / 0% co-pay --- Except for my modest monthly premium, everything is free.

Basically, I live National Health Insurance exile.

[matsuki]

Because I am 1-kyu (profoundly) handicapped

I've seen what you can do Taro...if that's handicapped, I'm doomed

But yes, in regards to individuals like yourself and those with preexisting conditions, the US sucks rocky mountain oysters.