Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster!!!

[Coligny]

I'm sorry, but it's a Japan problem. Not because it should be because of some moral or social creed, but because it already is. It's a done deed, in terms of physical dissemination, human exodus, social interaction, distribution of goods, politics ... everything.

You are overestimating the reach.

Quarantine is simply not an option. You should have noticed by now.

Temporary quarantine for debris until they can be properly analysed, "simply not an option". Ok, let me rephrase. Leaving them were they are until they can be categorized. Still impossible ?

What you're suggesting is impossible

If you say so...

and therefore doesn't even warrant argument.

...now I know why...

Really, if you don't want to deal with this the only option is to leave the country.

Again, "my way or the highway". I never said I didn't want to deal, meanwhile, what I don't want is to be part of this governement mandated clusterfuck, who just don't let the shit hit the fan, but add more shit and turn the fan speed up while playing the "think of the children... shareholders" card.

[Mike Oxlong]

I'm sorry, but it's a Japan problem. Not because it should be because of some moral or social creed, but because it already is. It's a done deed, in terms of physical dissemination, human exodus, social interaction, distribution of goods, politics ... everything...

I really dislike this sort of thinking. It's not unique to Japan, but endemic here. If something bad happens to someone, every effort is made to have it happen to everyone - as opposed to trying to minimize the damage it does to others. Share the pain. Sure, why not share the financial burden. But to share the radiation? Share other contaminants? Damage more after so much has already been done? This is a "work smarter, not harder" situation if there ever was one. The future of this nation depends on it. Anyone taking bets?:wall:

[Yokohammer]

You are overestimating the reach.

Not at all. There's no way to stop the flow of things and people, legitimate or otherwise. Entropy will eventually win, and there's no limit to how far it will reach.

Temporary quarantine for debris until they can be properly analysed, "simply not an option". Ok, let me rephrase. Leaving them were they are until they can be categorized. Still impossible ?

I'm not talking only about there debris here. I'm talking about everything. To be effective a quarantine would have to include everything and everybody. Not possible. And even if it was only about debris and the debris is properly analyzed ... which I'm sure it will be ... will you believe the results?

If you say so...

I do, and the above is why.

...now I know why...

I don't understand this part of your comment.

Again, "my way or the highway". I never said I didn't want to deal, meanwhile, what I don't want is to be part of this governement mandated clusterfuck, who just don't let the shit hit the fan, but add more shit and turn the fan speed up while playing the "think of the children... shareholders" card.

No, no, no. That's not what I said. I specifically went out of my way to point out that I'm not saying "my way or the highway." Please read it again in full:

Really, if you don't want to deal with this the only option is to leave the country. And I don't mean that in a snarky "well if you don't like it why don't you leave" sort of way, I literally mean that if you or anyone else doesn't want to deal with the fallout (pun intended) from the Fukushima nuke accident, the only option is to leave. If you're planning to stick around, then you're going to have to deal with it.

The shit has already hit the fan, as you point out, and the genie is not going back in the bottle. At some time, on some level, you're going to have to deal with it if you're in Japan. Period. And, unfortunately, you're going to have to deal with whatever solutions the Japanese government comes up with, right or wrong.

Kicking and screaming about how useless and/or criminal the government is is not going to protect you from that eventuality. You can kick and scream until it catches up with you and then accept whatever cards you're dealt, or you can apply that energy to analyzing and thinking about the problem itself and how you, personally, are going to deal with it. The latter is the smarter option in my opinion.

[Yokohammer]

I really dislike this sort of thinking. It's not unique to Japan, but endemic here. If something bad happens to someone, every effort is made to have it happen to everyone - as opposed to trying to minimize the damage it does to others. Share the pain. Sure, why not share the financial burden. But to share the radiation? Share other contaminants? Damage more after so much has already been done? This is a "work smarter, not harder" situation if there ever was one. The future of this nation depends on it. Anyone taking bets?:wall:

Exactly. It's the way Japan works, which is partly why I say it's a done deal. Like it or not, that's the way it is already going. But once again, not only because that's the way Japan "thinks," but because there's really no way to prevent it. As I said in my response to Coligny above, entropy will eventually win. Everyone in the country will have to deal with it at some point and on some level.

Come to think of it, part of Okinawa's campaign regarding the US bases is about having the rest of the country "share the pain."

[Mike Oxlong]

Come to think of it, part of Okinawa's campaign regarding the US bases is about having the rest of the country "share the pain."

It certainly is, but the other prefectures said NIMBY, and that was the end of that. Funny how it does not work in this case. It goes to show that where there is a will to contain something seen as undesirable, containment/quarantine is very possible.

[dimwit]

[Yokohammer]

It certainly is, but the other prefectures said NIMBY, and that was the end of that. Funny how it does not work in this case. It goes to show that where there is a will to contain something seen as undesirable, containment/quarantine is very possible.

Tohoku already has one ... Misawa Air Base in Aomori.

But I think the main difference is in the physical properties of the subject to be contained ... or not. US servicemen don't seep into the groundwater or infiltrate the food chain.

[dimwit]

Tohoku already has one ... Misawa Air Base in Aomori.

But I think the main difference is in the physical properties of the subject to be contained ... or not. US servicemen don't seep into the groundwater or infiltrate the food chain.

They don't but the American Miltary bases certainly do.

[Mike Oxlong]

Tohoku already has one ... Misawa Air Base in Aomori.

Was it moved there from Okinawa. Of course not.

But I think the main difference is in the physical properties of the subject to be contained ... or not. US servicemen don't seep into the groundwater or infiltrate the food chain.

You don't seriously think that radiation from man-made sources in food cannot be reasonably (not perfectly, but reasonably) contained, do you?

[Yokohammer]

They don't but the American Miltary bases certainly do.

I was afraid of that ...
I was hoping the problem would be limited to the guys pissing in the fields after a hard night out on the town.

[Coligny]

I'm not talking only about there debris here. I'm talking about everything.

To be effective a quarantine would have to include everything and everybody. Not possible.

IT'S NOT A FUCKING ZOMBIE OUTBREAK. Quarantine would be required for debris and timber. Should be mandatory for food and vegetables. People... not so much, if they reach the point where they pose a radiological hazard they wont stay around for long. You don't eat people so their internal contamination should pose no threat until their cremation, and they shower/change clothes, so external contaminant are not supposed to stay forever.

And even if it was only about debris and the debris is properly analyzed ... which I'm sure it will be ... will you believe the results?

Done by the governement NO, for reasons stated multiple time already. They went out of their way to patronize everybody an rightfully win their total distrust.

[Yokohammer]

You don't seriously think that radiation from man-made sources in food cannot be reasonably (not perfectly, but reasonably) contained, do you?

It's the "not perfectly" part that's key. On paper it's probably possible to "reasonably" control individual sources, but if you add everything up -- a bit through the food, a bit through the water, a bit through the air, a bit through structural/architectural materials, a bit through dry goods, a bit through people, etc. etc. -- there's no escaping the fact that overall radiation levels are going to rise throughout Japan. I believe that's unavoidable, but what we really want to know is whether it presents a significant health threat or not.

My response -- and this is just my personal non-expert opinion, so don't bet your life on it -- based on what I've learned about world radiation levels and the people who live healthy lives in areas that have radiation levels that would be considered alarming if measured in Tokyo, for example: I'm not too worried.

The thing is, as I've tried to say multiple times, the genie is already out of the bottle. No amount of complaining about how the situation is being handled is going make it go away. At this point in the day the response can only fall within one of two categories: 1) leave, or 2) deal with it.

If you choose option 2 then it becomes necessary to make an effort to analyze and understand what is going on. That's the first line of defense. And the first question is "is there a real health threat or not?" It's a difficult question to answer, but the worst and unfortunately the easiest place to look for clues is the many sensationalist/biased web sites that have sprung up post 3/11. Reliable, authoritative information is available, but it is usually a little harder to locate and decipher. Some work is required.

It would be great if some sort of trustworthy "information center" could be established to provide the answers in easily digestible form for everybody, and eventually I hope that will happen, but the usual vested interests etc. conspire to make that difficult. So for the time being it's up to individuals to find and assemble the pieces to make a reliable picture that satisfies their personal requirements.

I guess that's the long answer to a simple question.

[Coligny]

Can you please stop linking to anti-nuclear fanboy sites? Where to start? Here's a good quote from the first link.


First of all, meteorologists do not predict earthquakes, geologists or geophysicists do. Second, what the fuck is his source for there being a strong earthquake in Tohoku? Not the USGS, nor any geological journal that I have read recently. If anything the concensus amongst earth scientists is that a strong quake in Tohoku is very unlikely.

After reading link #1, I didn't bother with any of the others.

Last time I checked the quake info come from the JMA in japan... So next time you want to play smart, don't start fucking up at the first line...

HERE HAVE A NICE LOOK GENIUS: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/

As for dismissing the risk posed by the spent fuel pool on #4... That's not a bright move...

If you're planning to remove your head from your ass, check this one:

http://enenews.com/nuclear-expert-fukushima-spent-fuel-85-times-cesium-released-chernobyl-destroy-world-environment-civilization-issue-human-survival-former-adviser

Statement from Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy, for an explanation of the potential impact of the 11,421 rods.

I will charitably assume that he is not deliberately trying to be deceptive and that he has simply misheard the prediction of an increased risk of a quake in the Tokyo area. Such a quake would not affect Fukushima as it is too far away and not on the same faultline.

Infact... you are a blind of the worst kind... The ones that can't admit something can happen while a hugely similar event already happened.

Tohoku's quake triggered fires and liquefaction in Tokyo, what make you think a huge quake in the Tokyo area would not also shake Daiichi and the already weak SUSPENDED pool in #4. We're already lucky the continuous quake around Fukushima these days are not big enough to trigger more damages. The bigger last week even managed to knock the Tepco webcam of it's previous viewpoint.

[cstaylor]

You don't eat people so their internal contamination should pose no threat until their cremation, and they shower/change clothes, so external contaminant are not supposed to stay forever.

Incorrect. Since the vast majority of the radionuclides from Fukishima Daiichi NPS are cesium-137, they have a biological half-life of roughly 70 days.
I agree with Yokohammer: Japan is far too small a country to think of it in terms of regions like Tohoku/Kanto/Kansai/etc... if there's going to be a comprehensive waste disposal program, it should at least extend to all of Honshu. The same safety procedures should be in place whether the waste will be handled completely within the affected areas or outsourced elsewhere.

That said, wasting taxpayer money on rebuilding homes along the coast or decontaminating the heavily contaminated regions northwest of the NPS is a bad idea. At least with the radiological contamination, in ~100 years it will be 1/8th of the current level.

[Typhoon]

[dimwit]

Last time I checked the quake info come from the JMA in japan... So next time you want to play smart, don't start fucking up at the first line...

HERE HAVE A NICE LOOK GENIUS: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/

As for dismissing the risk posed by the spent fuel pool on #4... That's not a bright move...

If you're planning to remove your head from your ass, check this one:

http://enenews.com/nuclear-expert-fukushima-spent-fuel-85-times-cesium-released-chernobyl-destroy-world-environment-civilization-issue-human-survival-former-adviser

Statement from Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy, for an explanation of the potential impact of the 11,421 rods.



Infact... you are a blind of the worst kind... The ones that can't admit something can happen while a hugely similar event already happened.

Tohoku's quake triggered fires and liquefaction in Tokyo, what make you think a huge quake in the Tokyo area would not also shake Daiichi and the already weak SUSPENDED pool in #4. We're already lucky the continuous quake around Fukushima these days are not big enough to trigger more damages. The bigger last week even managed to knock the Tepco webcam of it's previous viewpoint.

God, What is with the trolling? I will try to answer you as civilly as possible.

Because the Japanese Meteorological Agency monitors earthquakes it does not mean that meteorologists do so. Meteorlogists study the atmosphere. Geologist study earthquakes. Japan does not have a separate geological survey for reasons that have never been adequately explained to me.

As for why a quake in the Tokyo area being unlikely to affect Fukushima, the reasons are twofold. The first is distance. The most likely epicenter for a quake in the Tokyo area would be along the Philipine/North America plate boundary. The distance between it and Fukushima is roughly 300km or about the same distance from Tokyo to Osaka. So why did the Tohoku quake affect Tokyo? Tokyo lays at the southern end of the NA/PACIFIC plate boundary that ruptured as seen on the map. (As for the liquefaction that occured around Tokyo Bay, liquefaction does not need particularly powerful earthquakes to initiated. Far more important is the presence of unconsolidated material which is common in reclaimed land)



The second reason why a tokyo quake is unlikely to affect Fukushima is that none of the faultline in the Toyko extend in the direction of Fukushima.

Earthquake intensity maps demonstrate this. In the case of a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in Tokyo seismic intensity drops off in Ibaraki and by the time you hit Fukushima it is small.

[Coligny]

Seriously, a link to ars tecnica as reliable source about fukushima !?

, as long as none of the isotopes accumulate in any organisms, the effects are unlikely to be long-lasting.

They write this with a straigh face... Of course it's true. But it's the same level of fumisterie as saying "fire can't burn you, unless you get too close"

For those who prefer science to make believe hysteria, there is, for example, this recent report

Judging by your dubious use of the word histrionic I suspect that anything clutered with enough unproperly linked reference to make your head dizy is sufficient enough to convince you. Also bonus point for your abstract playing the warm and fuzzy card aboot cesium radionuclide being below naturally occuring one. Since radionuclide cesium is result of fision and is one of those thing Not naturally occuring lets say that i certainly have lost something in translation. Or they are just compairing apple to oranges by comparing cesium concentration to another unnamed radionuclide.

As for the semantic farce related to the title given to geologist working for the JMA. If you really nees to hang to these kind of bullshit to provide yourself with arguments against a source. Maybe you should realise that junior highschool days are over and you have to step up your game a bit to be relevant.

[Coligny]

One last thing because 'last worders' really piss me of.

If to make you feel good aboot storage pool #4 level of damage and threat posed your option is to convince you that 'at least it wont be affected by a big quake in Tokyo' maybe you should widen a bit your viewpoint...

[Big Booger]

So where is a reliable source about Tohoku radiation levels?? I am about to move to Fukushima and just want some realistic data/reporting about it and no hype!

[canman]

One question Coligny. If you have so much confidence in the prediction of another big quake to hit either Fukushima, or near Tokyo, why weren't they able to predict the one that hit on March 11th? Because they can't, that's why.

[Coligny]

One question Coligny. If you have so much confidence in the prediction of another big quake to hit either Fukushima, or near Tokyo(1), why weren't they able to predict the one that hit on March 11th? Because they can't, that's why.

I have 0 confidence in this. My problem is not here.
My problem is concerning the instability of Daiichi still posing a huge threat. Prediction or not, anything build in japan have to follow quakeproofing rules. As of now, building #4 is absolutely not up to these standards. And to a certain point not even typhoon proof.

Or we can just say "fuck it, there's just been a quake there won't be no more it was a 1 in 100 year event" like they so efficiently argued when asked to properly shield the plant against big tsunami...


(1) d00d seriously...

[Coligny]

In the news today:
http://ex-skf.blogspot.jp/2012/04/japanese-government-to-start-clearing.html Japanese Government to Start Clearing Disaster Debris Inside 20-Km No-Entry Zone in Fukushima.

WHAT'S THE FUCKING POINT ? Isn't there already enough debris to deal with ?

It's a not entry zone... Like a dirty sink in an unused basement... Is it really necessary to clean it ? (unless you got OCD...)

[Big Booger]

I now live in Soma-City And my balls just grew a third eye.. what should I do?

[Greji]

[quote="Big Booger"]I now live in Soma-City ]
Who ya gonna call? Call Noriko.

[Yokohammer]

[quote="Big Booger"]I now live in Soma-City ]
That's makes you about a 40-minute drive from my place (30 minutes in heavy-foot mode).
Bought quite a bit of furniture at the ABC Outlet Matsumoto store, just behind the big AEON.

The Matsukawa-ura area out by the ocean used be a really beautiful place, but it got hit pretty hard by the tsunami. Seems like they're attempting to patch it up again though, so maybe one day.

What are you doing in Soma?

[cstaylor]

[quote="Big Booger"]I now live in Soma-City ]
Correlation and not causation. I'd suggest a second look at your gf; perhaps she's a vampire and prefers the gonadal artery?

[Coligny]

[quote="cstaylor"]Correlation and not causation. I'd suggest a second look at your gf]
I saw that movie...

Didun't end well...

[Guest]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpWOeKk1GUo

This video is about the sickness and suffering the people of Fukushima are experiencing.

[Yokohammer]

They don't but the American Miltary bases certainly do.

I was afraid of that ...
I was hoping the problem would be limited to the guys pissing in the fields after a hard night out on the town.

For some inscrutable reason I got a nice juicy red snot for this. Anonymous, of course.
Of all the contentious, pointed comments I've made in the last couple of days, red snot for this one?
Someone's priorities are definitely not on the same page as mine.

At least I got a good chuckle out of it.

[FG Lurker]

At least I got a good chuckle out of it.

I got a grey snot from some brainless n00b for a 7 year old comment the other day. Gave me a good laugh too.