If they manage to delay it for, say, a year....how much more overbudget does it become?
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Despite Japan’s efforts to carry out more testing for the new coronavirus, medical experts have cast doubt on whether the country can provide adequate testing for citizens and promote effective policies to contain the outbreak.
Others have warned that many private companies and government bodies in Japan have remained reluctant to take aggressive measures to combat the spread of the pneumonia-causing virus until an employee is found to be infected.
An expert on data analysis and modeling for social-economic systems has called on such organizations to implement urgent steps against the coronavirus, given that the test results are likely to take up to two weeks and that the number of infected patients may increase during the period.
Firms are also expected to incur heavy losses if they only start to act once a worker is infected, as they would be forced to swiftly take drastic measures, including shutting down their operations for an extended period, which could restrict social-economic activities.
“It is hard to comprehensively explain (testing capacity in Japan as a whole) as it varies across the country. But not enough is being done around me (at least),” said Kentaro Iwata, a professor of infectious diseases at Kobe University.
Even when there are test kits or the necessary equipment, the number of tests does not increase immediately because it takes time for medical institutions to ensure the accuracy of the tests.
Procedures such as seeking approval for insurance coverage also have to be dealt with, said Iwata, who joined the medical response team that boarded the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined off Yokohama in February.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on March 14 that Japan has a capacity to test more than 6,000 people per day. Meanwhile, health ministry data showed the number of tests conducted between Feb. 18 and March 19, stood at 37,726. The number of people who have been tested is lower, as some are tested more than once.
“In the first place, we believe there is not so much need for testing in Japan (as in other countries),” Takuma Kato, deputy director of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare’s infectious diseases control division, said on March 11.
He said Japan is not experiencing an explosion of infection numbers with severe symptoms as seen in countries like Italy and South Korea.
According to the World Health Organization, around 8,800 cases were confirmed in South Korea and 47,000 in Italy as of Sunday, while Japan had over 1,000, excluding cases from the Diamond Princess.
In Japan, the ratio of people who tested positive for the virus to those who have been tested “is never high,” Kato said.
But Iwata raised doubts about such a view.
“Japan has not contained (the virus), or perhaps I should say we cannot even judge whether we have contained it without conducting (a sufficient number of) tests,” he said, stressing the need for doing more tests in areas where infections are increasing.
The WHO has recently urged countries to test every suspected case.
To more accurately grasp how many people took tests in Japan, the health ministry asked local governments on March 4 to report not only the number of people who tested positive but also those found negative.
Akihiro Sato, a professor of information sciences at Yokohama City University, hailed the development in terms of data analysis, saying it will help correctly understand Japan’s capacity for conducting tests.
“The total work efficiency in Japan can increase by clarifying regional differences between inspection capacity and demand,” said Sato, who has formulated a mathematical model to contain the virus.
According to his calculations, the spread of the virus can be stopped if people reduce human interaction to 6 percent from the current 80 percent, which was realized with the government’s policy of restricting public events.
“For instance, if a person reduces interaction with other people to three times per week from 50, it is possible to see a lower number of cases,” he said.
“It is impossible to end the pandemic unless all citizens obey strict social distancing immediately and create an environment where they can satisfy themselves with 6 percent interaction for more than two weeks,” he said.
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Russell wrote:I can't avoid the impression that Japan's corona policy will prove to be a complete cluster fuck.
Well, let's see how it is in two weeks time.
In the mean time I'll stay home as much as possible.
“Japan has not contained (the virus), or perhaps I should say we cannot even judge whether we have contained it without conducting (a sufficient number of) tests,” he said, stressing the need for doing more tests in areas where infections are increasing.
Russell wrote:I can't avoid the impression that Japan's corona policy will prove to be a complete cluster fuck.
Well, let's see how it is in two weeks time.
In the mean time I'll stay home as much as possible.
yanpa wrote:Russell wrote:I can't avoid the impression that Japan's corona policy will prove to be a complete cluster fuck.
Well, let's see how it is in two weeks time.
In the mean time I'll stay home as much as possible.
(about two weeks later...)
My that graph is looking very exponential.
With the number of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo having nearly quadrupled in 10 days, it seems no longer a question of whether Japan will declare a national emergency, but when and how.
Officials and experts fear the capital city may not be prepared to handle an explosive rise in the number of cases that would overwhelm hospitals and collapse the health care system, also described as an “overshoot.”
Though officials maintain that an overshoot has not yet occurred in Tokyo, or anywhere else in the country, they say the danger remains imminent.
“In many ways, hospitals in Tokyo are not prepared for that situation,” said Koji Wada, a professor in public health at the International University of Health and Welfare and a member of the government’s expert panel on COVID-19.
As it stands, Tokyo has designated mostly publicly funded hospitals to take in coronavirus patients. But those facilities are starting to show signs of exhaustion, Wada said, and won’t be able to handle a significant increase in patients.
As of Monday, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government said it had 500 hospital beds in total for COVID-19 patients, and that 394 were occupied. Aware of the risks that poses, the city aims to obtain 700 additional beds for patients experiencing severe symptoms and 3,300 for less severe cases.
The health ministry has estimated that Tokyo could see up to 530 cases in total before April 8 if stricter measures are not taken. And when the pandemic peaks, the city may have to deal with up to 700 new patients in need of intensive care daily as well as more than 20,000 requiring treatment for pneumonia.
To avoid a collapse of the capital’s health care system — a grim scenario in which otherwise treatable patients would lose their lives — Wada said financial incentives would be needed to encourage private hospitals and nondesignated medical facilities to take in COVID-19 patients.
Another concern is that the daily reports of newly confirmed cases do not reflect how fast the virus is currently spreading, but rather, how much it has already spread.
As of Wednesday evening, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government had reported 521 cases of the novel coronavirus and 16 deaths. As many as 78 cases had been reported the previous night, following a turbulent period in which seven record-breaking days brought the tally in the capital to the highest among all 47 of the nation’s prefectures. Tokyo was slated to announce up to 66 additional cases Wednesday night, bringing the tally in the capital close to 600.
For most patients, two to three weeks have elapsed since they were infected by the time they test positive and the case is made public. It’s also possible to carry the virus for up to two weeks before developing symptoms.
What that means is that many of the numerous cases reported in Tokyo over the past week reflect infections that took place weeks ago. New cases, of patients infected before the governor began asking residents to isolate themselves, are likely to emerge in the coming days.
The most crucial factor is whether Tokyo has the capacity to treat all patients in need of immediate medical attention.
According to the World Health Organization, 80 percent of COVID-19 patients recover completely after experiencing minor symptoms, while about 15 percent are hospitalized and the remaining 5 percent require intensive care.
In Japan, a small fraction of those intensive care patients are treated using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or ECMO, which provides respiratory support with cutting-edge technology and is used occasionally to remedy serious lung problems, as well as heart issues.
There are just over 1,400 ECMO machines in Japan, according to a joint survey released in March by the Japanese Society of Respiratory Care Medicine and the Japan Association of Clinical Engineers. But only about 300 of these machines are available for COVID-19 treatment, said Satoru Hashimoto, the director of intensive care medicine at Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine’s hospital.
In Tokyo, 16 people among the 521 cases reported so far are suffering from severe symptoms. The city has limited ventilators and fewer than 200 ECMO machines, according to the March survey, only a fraction of which can currently be used for COVID-19 treatment.
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Japanese parliament passed legislation Monday that would make online insults punishable by up to one year in jail.
The move comes after a popular Japanese reality TV star died by suicide.
The bill will be re-examined in three years to determine its effect on society.
Japan's parliament passed new legislation on Monday that will make "online insults" punishable by up to one year in jail.
The move to amend the country's penal code is set to take effect later this summer. Under the new legislation, those convicted of making online insults can be punished by up to one year in jail or be fined
matsuki wrote:Choosing not to insult someone is just good manners. Not insulting someone under the threat of up to 1 year in jail...sounds like you're living in North Korea.
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