Cartoon Economy

[Captain Japan]

What Lucy and Charlie Brown Say About Japan
Bloomberg

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Six months ago, the joke was that meetings of the Japan Bears Club were being held in a Tokyo phone booth. That, after all, seemed all the space needed to accommodate those still pessimistic on the world's No. 2 economy.

Yet Japan's recovery is largely an export phenomenon that hasn't spread to the part of the economy that matters most: consumers. Households worry it's another head fake and aren't increasing spending as hoped. Getting them to do that is the key to boosting growth and ending deflation.

It reminds one of Japan-watcher Alex Kerr's observation about Lucy, Charlie Brown and the football. Time and time again, as those familiar with Charles Schulz's characters will recall, Lucy convinces Charlie Brown she won't yank away the ball as he runs to kick it. Each time, Charlie Brown ends up in the mud as she does just that.

[Skankster]

Yet Japan's recovery is largely an export phenomenon that hasn't spread to the part of the economy that matters most: consumers. Households worry it's another head fake and aren't increasing spending as hoped.

The deflation helped a bit.
but not near enough... So as the article points out: Its gonna happen all over again.

MARK MY WORDS: There will never be such a thing as "Koizumi Keiki"

[Mulboyne]

This article from the IHT/Asahi says much the same thing. In fact, more Japanese economists have been sceptical of this recovery than non-Japanese this time around.

A recession may have already started in Japan after the prolonged "hyped" boom for the past couple of years...the Japanese economy, in reality, ha[s] been as flat as ever for the preceding two years, according to the Japanese government's estimate of gross domestic product at current prices...[H]owever, almost all the media pundits and private economists continued to dance the music of "remarkably high economic growth" to the tune of the government's Pied Piper all the way to the Upper House election in July.
...What has made the Japanese economy appear extremely brisk since the second quarter of 2003 is the allegedly high growth rate of real GDP, or GDP at constant 1995 prices. However, it may turn out to be no more than a statistical mirage....The growth rates and levels of real GDP...appear to be grossly overstated. The culprits are the deflators of the components of nominal GDP, by which the components of nominal GDP are converted to the components of real GDP. The Bank of Japan's corporate goods price index (CGPI) with 2000 as the base year, or the Japanese version of the producer price index, has been already rising marginally since the middle of 2003 while the deflators of the related components in GDP have kept falling.
...The apparent contradictions between GDP deflators on the one hand and the CPI and the CGPI on the other naturally suggest that the revised GDP deflators with 2000 as the base year will be more in line with the CPI and the CGPI. Accordingly, there will be a very great chance of substantial downward revisions of real GDP for the past couple of years or so in line with the variation of nominal GDP.

[Captain Japan]

New data method to cut Japan growth dramatically

TOKYO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Growth in Japan, as measured by price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP), will be revised down substantially this year under new calculation methods and a forecast slowdown next year may look even more pronounced.

While economists generally agree that the revisions mean the data will better reflect actual conditions, they say the new data will radically alter the image of Japan's economic recovery.

"It does give the impression that we are talking about the economy of a completely different country," said Ryutaro Kono, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo.

That last bit is pretty funny.

[Taro Toporific]

And Charlie Brown always would say, "Wait til next year!"

Japan recovery 'will be back on track next year'
FT.com 2:40pm 11/21/04
apan's recovery is "qualitatively different" from previous, short-lived upturns, Toshihiko Fukui, governor of the Bank of Japan, told the Financial Times, as he moved to ease concerns that Japan's emergence from a decade of deflation and stagnation has stalled. ...more...

[Buraku]

[GuyJean]

Bloomberg - 10 Mar 2005
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy probably contracted more than the government initially estimated in the fourth

Wow. Is that the first time?

I didn't read the articles, but skimming the headlines on Nikkei Net, I kept seeing titles such as:

'Stock market surges on optimistic Japanese economy'
'Optimism about Japan's economy'

Why was the Nikkei going up when other world markets were going down? Was it Horie happiness week?

GJ

[Mulboyne]

Why was the Nikkei going up when other world markets were going down? Was it Horie happiness week?

Anyone who wanted to sell on account of weak 4th quarter GDP numbers has already sold. There were some better numbers out last week, notably household spending.
Japan January household spending shows first rise in five months

Total Japanese household spending in January rose 0.5 percent from a year earlier, the first rise in five months, official figures show, supporting positive economic growth prospects.

Bloomberg: Japan's February Consumer Confidence Rises on Jobs

Japanese consumers were less pessimistic for a second month in February as they anticipated improving job prospects, suggesting they may increase spending.

[Buraku]

The corrupt LDP construction continues, birth rates worse than that of communist China, the nation is almost bankrupt, and the penison system gone to the dogs

but Japan comes up with 2 excuses
'Spending' and 'Confidence'


A bunch of old LDP say they can continue on the Yakuza highway, keep the banks with huge debts, build a base on the Moon ( like the Bush-Mars myth ) ?? and continue seeing the marriages and birth rates drop

A bunhc of Kogyaru running around Shibuya on a shoppin' trip with mommy's credit card, and a bunch of yongsters artifically inflating spending buy giving Prada, Rolex and Guuci big profits ain't gonna help the Japan economy


Japan Inc can try and spin this one whatever way they want, but...

Let's keep in mind the real problems
The dollar rates are always important, Japan does big trade with the USA so rising US debts also mean problems for Japan, unemployment rose to record levels in Japan, also we have the China factor, Chinese might be putting on the eocnomic brakes soon and it would hit Japanese exports hard - because Japan exports more than one-third of its products there. Japanese banks became burdened with bad debts and lending to companies for expansion dried up. The government has repeatedly tried to stimulate the economy, they borrow money from banks, fix a few numbers here and there, companies cut back on the bonus, Japan tries another stimulation by spending money on public works.
As posted in F*ckedgaijin - What's up with the value of the YEN? The result has been some well-equipped but unnecessary infrastructure projects, & relatively little of the Japanese yen money spent reached those who have been made unemployed, and it creates little new business, in fact most of the electronic and industrial designs are all coming from China. Much of it has in fact gone into the coffers of Japan's huge Yakuza construction companies, people on the street and foreign investors are getting very unhappy with Japan its even getting to late for zero interest rates, the USA has big problems as Bush burns money in Iraq, another US deficit of 164.7 billion dollars clocked up, yet for all the economic problems Bush has given the USA do they comapre to Japan ? Corrupt Japanese banking, falling brith rates, a Japan economy that pretty much hasnt grown in 15 years, and government deficits and debts larger than the USA despite being 2/5ths the American size

[GuyJean]

Japanese consumers were less pessimistic for a second month in February as they anticipated improving job prospects, suggesting they may increase spending.

Consumer 1: "The economy sucks less than January."
Consumer 2: "This month has better bad news than last."
Consumer 3: "In February, I had less train-jumping urges."

GJ

[Buraku]

try the topic



"Sexy China Casts Shadows on a Not-Rising Sun"

[Taro Toporific]

Reuters - Fri Jul 28, 3:03 AM ET
[Taro] takes a nap at Hibiya Park in Tokyo July 28, 2006. Japan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent in June, up from 4.0 percent in May and higher than a market consensus forcast of 4.0 percent, government data showed on Friday.

What Lucy and Charlie Brown Say About Japan
Bloomberg