A very interesting article was published in this months Scientific America about a simulated outbreak of Smallpox in Portland. For us in Japan the study is quite relevent.
Flu and the Future
Over the past year, a highly virulent strain of influenza has raged through bird populations in Asia and has infected more than 40 human beings in [b]Japan, [b]Thailand and Vietnam, killing more than 30 of those people. The World Health Organization has warned that it is only a matter of time before this lethal flu strain, designated H5N1, more easily infects people and spreads between them. That development could spark a global flu pandemic with a death toll reaching tens of millions
and the conclusions ask very worrisome
The results upheld our theoretical prediction based on the expander-graph structure of the social network: time was by far the most important factor in limiting deaths. [b]The speed with which people withdrew to their homes or were isolated by health officials was the strongest determinant of the outbreak's extent.[b] The second most influential factor was [b]the length of the delay in officials' response.[b] The actual response strategy chosen made little difference compared with the time element.
The scary thing about this report is it highlights some the serious problems Japan would face if an outbreak of say, SARS occured here; worker drag themselves into work even when they are decidedly sick, ditto students, and Japan itself is slow in disaster response.
Full article here
Model simulation here
