AIDS Spreading In Japan

[Mulboyne]

[floatr][/floatr]Mainichi: Record numbers of new HIV infections and AIDS patients in Japan in 2006
The numbers of new infections of HIV and AIDS patients in Japan hit record highs in 2006, the Health Ministry said Wednesday, underscoring concerns over spreading infections. The number of new HIV infections last year was 914, up nearly 10 percent from 2005, according to preliminary data released by the ministry's AIDS Surveillance Committee. The number of those who developed AIDS in 2006 was 390, up 6.3 percent from the year before. Both numbers were a record high since the ministry began taking statistics in 1985. The report did not provide analysis on why the numbers are increasing. Ministry official Kozo Akino said while actual infections may be spreading, the surge in the number of infections is also because more people are getting tested.

See also FG Thread: More Japanese Going Bareback

[Jack]

That's it? Just over 900 cases out of a population of 128 million?

[AssKissinger]

That's it? Just over 900 cases out of a population of 128 million?

Totally. Check the comment I made in the thread he links to.

http://www.fuckedgaijin.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16657

[joshuaism]

That's it? Just over 900 cases out of a population of 128 million?

The problem is total population is the wrong value to be comparing against. HIV doesn't just magically appear in a population but is passed along by people currently infected, so you should compare against the number of currently infected people.

[AssKissinger]

The problem is total population is the wrong value to be comparing against. HIV doesn't just magically appear in a population but is passed along by people currently infected, so you should compare against the number of currently infected people.

So you're saying we should be concerned about the rate of growth not the total numbers. But it has had two full decades to grow and it's still microscopic. And that's with oodles and oodles of people having promiscuous unsafe sex.

[Captain Japan]

[joshuaism]

So you're saying we should be concerned about the rate of growth not the total numbers. But it has had two full decades to grow and it's still microscopic. And that's with oodles and oodles of people having promiscuous unsafe sex.

I'm just saying the rate of growth is probably a more meaningful statistic, unless you are just comparing your chances of getting AIDS from some random nihon-jin.

So are the Japanese really having oodles and oodles of promiscuous unsafe sex? I guess you would need to compare number of sexual partners vs. sexual frequency vs. rate of condom use. Anyone want to run these numbers?

[rooboy]

1) The writer of this blog is a guy and his handle is 'Pink"?:confused: If it is, then maybe he swings both ways and might be responsible after all for his ex's state.

2) From what I know, you are NOT CLEAR after one AIDS test. It's a series of tests in the sense of follow up tests. The virus can show up afterwards I believe. Anybody like to correct me on that or say that its the case?

3) Look no further for the AIDS increase in Japan than 2 things -

the Japanese idiots going off on their sex tours, taking no precautions and spreading the disease back in Japan AND

the hypocrisy about homo behaviour in Japan.

While the standard Japanese custom is to giggle at clearly gay or bi men and wink at it, muttering 'Henna hito!", the whole issue is blatantly ignored in the way the Japanese do when they feel uncomfortable about something.

Outside Japan in other developed countries less men like that are living lies. They are open about it or if they're not, they don't hook up with a woman in an arranged marriage.

I think it's fair to say that most gay and bi men in Japan are married - and that explains the rising incidence of AIDS infection. The stupidity of it's okay to be gay or bi so long as you are married hypocrisy.

[Captain Japan]

1) The writer of this blog is a guy and his handle is 'Pink"?:confused: If it is, then maybe he swings both ways and might be responsible after all for his ex's state.

It seems Pink posted a letter from someone else. So it is not his story.

[AssKissinger]

Men do get AIDS in Japan from heterosexual contact. I'm glad I didn't. However, I think I was far more likey to get killed riding my bike around the cities of Aichi than I was going bareback from time to time.

[GomiGirl]

That's it? Just over 900 cases out of a population of 128 million?

That is 900 new cases in a 12 month period.. these are only the reported ones.

[Jack]

We know that in Africa AIDS is so prevalent and with all the Africans roaming the night scene in Japan and very aggressively hunting for chicks, I assume a big chunk of AIDs must come from them. Still, the odds of catching AIDS by having unprotected sex with a J-chick is minuscule.

[Charles]

[Jack]

I think I've heard this sort of racist claptrap before. Let me think...

You can hide your head in the sand if you wish but I will not. AIDS is widespread in Africa and it's a fact. How is that racist?

[Charles]

You can hide your head in the sand if you wish but I will not. AIDS is widespread in Africa and it's a fact. How is that racist?

That's the same sort of tortured logic the "gaijin crime wave" people use. I guarantee you that almost all HIV transmissions in Japan are nihonjin to nihonjin.

[AssKissinger]

Jack. You're 100% correct. Racism is when you spout off untruths to diminish the reputation of a race. It's even racist if you believe something that's untrue to the disservice of a certain race. But to make an observation that is true and to then to be called a racist only stifles the process of solving the problem, be it race related or not.

PS Fuck you Charles.

[joshuaism]

We know that in Africa AIDS is so prevalent and with all the Africans roaming the night scene in Japan and very aggressively hunting for chicks, I assume a big chunk of AIDs must come from them. Still, the odds of catching AIDS by having unprotected sex with a J-chick is minuscule.

Are these "Africans" in Japan really from Africa? I always thought they were just black people.

[Kuang_Grade]

Ehh...The linkage Jack's argument is exceptionally weak
AIDS is massive problem in Africa=Africans are likely to be HIV positive=Africans (whom Jack is merely assuming to be from Africa from their skin color, ignoring that they could actually be from the US or UK, or from any number of other non-African countries) will infect J folks with HIV.

Say country X's murder rate is 10x that of Japan. Using Jack's logic (country X is violent=visitors from country are likely to be violent=tourists from country X are 10x more likely to murder J folks) would be true. While each statement could be true, that doesn't mean there is a causal link between each statement and that the populations you are talking about are so small in relationship to the overall population that they are effectively meaningless in the greater epidemiological view.

While there appears to be some genetic populations who are more/less resistant to HIV infection in general plus with variances in strains of HIV in regards to their speed and probability of infection via heterosexual contact, a large portion of HIV's inroads in Africa can be laid at the feet of social issues and cultural behaviors that help spread HIV.

And Charles is right, the odds are that most HIV infections are spread via nihonjin to nihonjin, if only because likely 99.7% of the country's sexual contacts are that way . While gaijins can certainly be a possible vector of infection, there’s nothing to say they are automatically more likely to be a vector than anyone else, let alone the oyaji-sans who have gone on Thai sex junkets. And I suspect the average J woman's guard is probably a bit more up when being involved with gaijin vs. nihonjin and would likely be more insistent about condom usage with gaijin, but that’s one of those things that would be hard to test out.

[AssKissinger]

Are these "Africans" in Japan really from Africa? I always thought they were just black people.

whom Jack is merely assuming to be from Africa from their skin color, ignoring that they could actually be from the US or UK, or from any number of other non-African countries

WTF? It's easy as Hell to spot the ones from Africa with their goofy 1980's hip hop gear claiming to be from Brooklyn, gimme a break! They're always up to some bullshit scam, like you can't spot these fuckers 100 miles away.

[Mike Oxlong]

I'd tend to agree that the way the HIV virus originally found it's way into Japan was via infected salarymen who returned from sex Junkets to Southeast Asian countries. Now that AIDS is here to stay, as many have stated, the primary route of infection is from one Japanese to another. But, foreign residents must take precautions!

[American Oyaji]

It must be about to snow buckets....

I agree with Jack and AK. There IS a possibility that some of the AIDS in Japan came from Africans due to how wide spread it is. Jack merely pointed it out and I myself did not find it to be racist or offensive. He was stating an opinion based on a knowledge of credible facts.

And yeah. Those African guys get my goat saying they are from America.

[joshuaism]

So AO, are you saying there is a possibility that some AIDS came from Africans to Japan, or are you all out agreeing with Jack that a big chunk of AIDS must come from them?

[GomiGirl]

Does it really matter who was patient 0 or who was the carrier? This is a human issue that is global and rather than pointing fingers and laying blame, how about discussing prevention, treatment and education? It is a problem for us all and not just the people who are infected.

With the right sort of monitored treatment, an infected person can have a negligible viral load and lead a long and happy life and die of old age rather than of an AIDS related illness. This is a manageable illness akin to diabeties but there is still a stimga of all infected persons as sinners (no matter how they were infected) and so their infections were in some way their fault and the price they must pay. This is just wrong.

/ soap box

[Captain Japan]

I agree with Jack and AK. There IS a possibility that some of the AIDS in Japan came from Africans due to how wide spread it is. Jack merely pointed it out and I myself did not find it to be racist or offensive. He was stating an opinion based on a knowledge of credible facts.

His claim about Africa is indeed backed up by fact. But his claim linking Africans to the spread in Japan is highly dubious. I think Kuang Grade's explanation is much more reasonable.

Gomi, I suppose the reason discussing the source is important is because the main reason AIDS/HIV cases has increased is ignorance. Continuing to spread false information will just add to it.

[Jack]

[quote="Kuang_Grade"]Ehh...The linkage Jack's argument is exceptionally weak

Say country X's murder rate is 10x that of Japan. Using Jack's logic (country X is violent=visitors from country are likely to be violent=tourists from country X are 10x more likely to murder J folks) would be true. While each statement could be true, that doesn't mean there is a causal link between each statement and that the populations you are talking about are so small in relationship to the overall population that they are effectively meaningless in the greater epidemiological view.

And Charles is right, the odds are that most HIV infections are spread via nihonjin to nihonjin, if only because likely 99.7% of the country's sexual contacts are that way . While gaijins can certainly be a possible vector of infection, there’]

Your logic is so flawed that it's comical. The murder rate in Jamaica is astronomical (145 homicides in January of this year alone) and many of the criminals in Toronto are Jamaicans. Note that I am not saying most criminals in Toronto are blacks, I am saying they are "Jamaican". I deal with mathematical statistics all day long and you know what? We always generalise because that's an accepted statistical modelling method. We take a sample of a population and extrapolate from that. So give me a break with your loose explanation.

FYI: I have never encountered a J-chick which insisted on using a condom. In fact I don't ever recall anyone even mentioning it.

[Kuang_Grade]

Your logic is so flawed that it's comical. The murder rate in Jamaica is astronomical (145 homicides in January of this year alone) and many of the criminals in Toronto are Jamaicans. Note that I am not saying most criminals in Toronto are blacks, I am saying they are "Jamaican". .

On the contrary, you are just showing your own syphilitic mental reasoning.

Ok, so you are merely saying Jamaicans in Toronto are almost certainly criminals, probably murderers...That's surely a sound, non-biased, well reasoned judgment....Oh, wait a minute...Wow, is the murder pattern in Jamaica evenly distributed both on a geographic and demographic level?...Is the population of Jamaicans in Toronto a statistically valid representative of the entire population of Jamaica? What % of Toronto’]
I deal with mathematical statistics all day long and you know what? We always generalize because that's an accepted statistical modeling method. We take a sample of a population and extrapolate from that. [/QUOTE]

The key to the validity of any model is sample validity…a shitty sample will result in even more shitty extrapolated data….Just because someone works in a kitchen, it doesn’t automatically mean they know how to cook…it may just mean they know how to chop vegetables or wash dishes.

Here’s a paraphrase of your original statement :

I saw me some blacks males (oops, you said Africans, which I would also point out would technically could include Charlize Theron and Hosni Mubarak) down there in Roppongi talking to some J girls…Since blacks must be Africans and Africa has big AIDS problem, ergo AIDS in Japan must be a result of these black guys picking up J girls in Roppongi and having sex with them.

So lets break down some bias issues in your "sample"…
● IS HIV is a huge problem in Africa? (yes)
● Does everyone in Africa have HIV?(no)
● Is HIV evenly distributed in all African nations and all national demographic levels (no)
● Does every African country have similar HIV infection levels? (no)
● Does every age group have similar HIV infection levels? (no)
● Are all African nations having similar levels of success countering HIV? (no, some are doing better than others)
● Does HIV infect groups with similar education and income levels equally in Africa? (no, it varies in some countries with some classes being hit harder than others, although this may be merely an example of the pandemic being at different stages in different places.).
● Are there some cultural aspects in Africa that increase the probability of HIV infection?(too many to fully mention, but uncircumcised males and circumcised females both have higher risk of HIV infection)
● Do men and women in Africa have equal probabilities of becoming infected in any given single heterosexual contact? (it depends on a numbers factors, but it appears that it is slightly easier for a man to infect a women vs. a woman infecting a man via heterosexual intercourse).
● Is the probability of an African person infecting another African with HIV identical to the probability of an African infecting a Japanese person? And then are those infection probabilities the same when that infected Japanese person has sex with another Japanese person?

Ok, that just the HIV and Africa bit
Then you have the 'African guys in Japan' sample issues

● Are does everyone in Africa have a equal probability living in Japan? (surprisingly almost yes, since its effectively zero, except for certain people from certain countries with likely some form of means as well).
● Are Japanese visas issued equally to all countries (no)
● Are J visas available to all classes equally in the few countries where they are given out (probably not).
● Are Africans gaijins, like most gaijins, highly probably statistical outliers when compared to their national peers in education, and wealth, and along with that comes possible variances in their level of sexual experience (i.e., they probably have had more opportunities) although they might/might not be more likely to practice safer sex practices due to a higher educational level or is this bias more a factor when looking at western gaijin only, or is it even more selective based on age and specific nationality, given that various countries have gone through AIDS panics at different times and to different levels of hysteria.?
● Do the ages of Africans in Japan accurately represent the age cohorts of the general African population?
● Are some random black guys in Roppongi necessarily a valid sample of Africans in Japan, let alone a valid sample of entire continent?
● How large is the population of Africans in Japan?
● How many of them are male?
● Of that subset, how many are in Tokyo?
● Of them, how many of them go to Roppongi?
● Of that subset, how many of them go out on nampa? Of that subset, how successful are they at it? (i.e., are there 400 out there doing it very night but you only see 80 out and about of them because the other 80% of them are busy getting it on or do just that you keep seeing the same 80 guys out and about because they aren’t getting any at all)? How does this success ratio compare to other gaijin? To J guys?
● How many J-girls, aware of the HIV problem in Africa, are more insistent on condom usage with Africans vs. Non-African gaijins? Vs. J males?
● How long have “all the Africans roaming the night scene” been around, given the incubation period for HIV before notable symptoms appear can be several years or possibly 10-15 years.
● What’s the turnover rate for African males in Japan?…have the same guys been around for last ten years (thus missing the some of the more recent HIV expansion in Africa) or are new people constantly cycling through? How often do they go visit home? What is their probability of exposure to HIV when they go back home for a short period of time?

So, let me know when you’ve worked out all those potential bias factors out of your assumption and population sample…Please note, I left out most of the actual infection variables (like possible trail off from the Green Cross scandal in the 80’s) to make it easier for you.

Still, the odds of catching AIDS by having unprotected sex with a J-chick is minuscule.
…
FYI: I have never encountered a J-chick which insisted on using a condom. In fact I don't ever recall anyone even mentioning it.

If you were the stat jockey you claim to be, you’d know that it is not the probability of a one time event occurring that you should be worried about, it’s the cumulative risk exposure that develops over time. For example, if the chance of infection is 1/1000 per event, after a 100 events your total probability of being infected is 1/10. Even at 1/10000 chance, after 100 events, your probablity of being infected is now 1/100. If your game is anywhere near your level of talk, our odds of you dealing with this issue on a personal level are far from minuscule.

[Samurai_Jerk]

I've heard that African UN peacekeepers were one of the main factors in the spread of HIV to Cambodia.

KG, if I put a gun to your head and told you you had to either bareback a girl from Tokyo or a girl from West Africa, which one would you choose? I don't think it's fair to call Jack a racist here. Maybe he's ignorant and doesn't have the best grasp of stats, but I wouldn't say he's racist.

[Greji]

if I put a gun to your head and told you you had to either bareback a girl from Tokyo or a girl from West Africa, which one would you choose?

Ahh, I was never too good at math, could I have both of them?

[American Oyaji]

FYI: I have never encountered a J-chick which insisted on using a condom. In fact I don't ever recall anyone even mentioning it.

I've only met one. And I suspect that she was married, but it was a one night thing.

[gomichild]

Why the fuck should it be up to the girl to insist on using a condom? Everyone is aware of the possibility of contracting AIDS/HIV, syphilis or any other STD with having sex without using a condom. Let along the fact it is well known that the pill is not in common use here.

I have zero sympathy for any guy who has a brush with whatever if they didn't insist on using a condom themselves.

Personal responsibility. It's 2007 people.