What's up with the value of the YEN?

[Mulboyne]

[Greji]

Economist: Yen and yang

I read that a couple of times trying to figure out what he was saying. Is he simply pointing out the over-value policy of J-government? Is he hoping, predicting or recommending a devaluation? Is he just writing a paper on the virtue of vagueness?

Everyone knows that the BOJ props yen and protects it better than the bankers protect the chastity of their women, so what is he saying?

You got me????

[Catoneinutica]

Good Bloomberg column by Bill Pesek:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=asGhP0CYr0E4

Interesting little quote:

"There's no evidence the Ministry of Finance has been working to weaken the yen, as it did with great success in 2004."

This certainly flies in the face of the conventional wisdom (no doubt peddled by Pesek, among others), that central bank interentions are futile, drops in the bucket of commercial currency transactions.

It seems clear that the MoF is bent on keeping the yen cheap to compete with S. Korea and China. How pathetic. After all these years, Japan is still just an Asian export-factory country (with working standards to match).

[Big Booger]

The dollar plunged against major currencies on Friday, pulling the rug from under European stocks as the euro soared and sending investors scuttling into selected safe havens.European stock indexes sank more than 1 percent, raising questions about exporters' future earnings and sparking concerns about whether the steady rises in global equities and general lack of volatility across financial markets had hit the skids.
Wall Street, meanwhile, looked set for a negative start, which would appear contradictory given dollar weakness but might presage a broader worry about the sustainability of stock markets at record highs.
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"You might just find people generally quite happy to take a bit of money out of the market at this time of the year, given that they have made a lot and they might want to lock it in," said HSBC strategist Kevin Gardiner.
Buoyed by signs of solid euro zone economic growth and likely higher interest rates, the euro broke through the psychological barrier of $1.30 <EUR=> for the first time in 1-1/2 years as the dollar weakened across the board.
Britain's pound was up 0.8 percent at a near two-year high above $1.93 <GBP=>, and the dollar was 1 percent lower against the Swiss franc <CHF=>, and down a third of a percent against the yen <JPY=> at 115.8 yen.
Beyond the major players, Russia's rouble hit a 7-year high against the U.S. currency.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=2006-11-24T122056Z_01_SP268253_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-GLOBAL.xml&WTmodLoc=Home-C3-Investing1-hotStocksNews-3

Yippee!!! Time to go send some money home!

[Tsuru]

It's now 151.648 to the €, the highest in history, still climbing gradually and showing no signs of stopping.

[james]

even a canadian dollar buys about 87 cents u.s. these days and 105 yen. for those that have been here much longer, perhaps they can remember, but for me having only been here 8 years, this year was the first time i had to deal with actually taking a hit on my yen when wiring it back to canada. when i first came here and planned a trip for my students, canadian dollars could be had for just under 80 yen.

[Mulboyne]

[d0p3y]

Here in Australia is was looking really good for Y100 to the dollar, but it's taken a massive drop over the last week and now it's down to Y93.9 to AUD$1

Our economy sucks!

[nullpointer]

Australian dollar has been in a long uptrend against the Yen and has quite a few support levels to break if it is to cause any significant damage to the exchange rate.

[Tsuru]

We have those two recent falls in the EUR/YEN and GBP/YEN ratios as well, I wonder if they represent somekind of artificial correction by the JCB. They seem to be less prevalent in the USD/YEN graph.

[nullpointer]

I doubt if BOJ has anything to do with the recent correction in Yen Crosses, though one cannot put it past them as preparation for pre-davos and the upcoming G7 meeting. After all, it is for a reason that BOJ is affectionately called as Bastards of Japan.

[AssKissinger]

Paulson: Yen's decline is not a concern By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
1 hour, 1 minute ago



Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday he was not concerned about the lows being set by the Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar because those values are being set in open markets.

Paulson was pressed on the issue by Rep. Sander Levin (news, bio, voting record), D-Mich., during a hearing of the House Ways and Means Committee. Levin questioned why the Bush administration was not doing more to encourage the Japanese government to halt the slide in the yen against the dollar.

American automakers believe that decline has given their Japanese competitors a tremendous price advantage.

Levin said European auto companies were complaining about the yen's decline against their currencies. He suggested that Paulson should join forces with European finance ministers to lobby Japanese officials on the issue when the countries meet this weekend for the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting in Essen, Germany.

Paulson, however, said the Japanese government has not intervened to influence the value of its currency since 2004.

"This is a currency that is trading on a competitive, open market place," Paulson told Levin. "Some people may not like where it is trading, but it is my job to fight for a free and open market."

Paulson noted that the Bush administration has been encouraging China to allow its currency, the yuan, to be set by market forces. American manufacturers contend the Chinese government is unfairly keeping the yuan undervalued against the dollar by as much as 40 percent to give Chinese companies a price advantage over U.S. firms.

The meeting of finance ministers and central bank presidents of the Group of Seven rich industrial nations — the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada — will begin with a dinner Friday and conclude with the release of a joint statement on Saturday after the second day of talks.

The G-7 countries will be joined at the dinner by finance officials from Russia, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico.

Officials said a review of the global economy, discussions of reforms to the International Monetary Fund and currency rates will be among the topics discussed.

The Bush administration has gotten support over the past three years from the other G-7 countries in its campaign to get China to move more quickly to allow its currency to rise in value against the dollar as America's trade deficit with China has soared to record levels.

___

[nullpointer]

BOJ has hiked the interest rates by 25bp to 0.5%. Carry traders are back in full swing after the announcement.

The doubling of interest rates still leaves Japan well below the benchmark rates of 5.25% in the US and 3.5% in the eurozone.Tokyo's Nikkei share average ended down 0.14% but the broader TOPIX index rose 0.2% to its highest finish in more than 15 years.Banks have been boosted by hopes that rising interest rates will improve their lending margins.

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[rooboy]

with Maraboutslim. FG Lurker - I was interested to read your views on money, especially when you said money could be created from nothing if I aint misquoting you.

Can you elaborate? I'm serious, not baiting you. I decided last year to up the ante on my finances. In my mid 30s, like so many people I was just living for today and spending most of my cash.

But the reality is - I'm not getting superannuation (Aussie for pension fund) from any job cos I'm living in Japan and I calculate that not having employer contributions to my future has really fucking cost me. Australia's cracking down on the publicly funded pension - that's why there are all these superannuation tax breaks.

If you retire in Australia on a certain income level you can get the pension but it aint worth much. More people will be depending on their employer-linked superannuation funds but people like me will be fucked if they stay around in Japan much longer. I worked at jobs in Australia which had no super paid and when I got it, it wasn't much.

I've been reading money people like John T Reed and he makes the most sense. I like the way he lays into Robert Kiyosaki who's a fucking fraud - he was with Avon originally and made his pile through selling books about how to make money.

Kiyosaki didn't actually make money by being a real financial adviser or invester of success. He made money by telling people how to make money - and a lot of that is populist garbage that is aimed at people ignorant about money,markets, investments etc, which means most people.

Every time John T Reed lists relevant US laws about financial biz that Kiyosaki has blatantly contradicted or lied about, all his followers email Reed and complain about him 'telling lies' or 'misrepresenting' Kiyosaki. Fuck people are gullible! Yet Kiyosaki is being employed by yahoo in their finance section, one reason why I'd never trust yahoo. You don't employ snakeoil salesman if you're a credible company.

So - FG Lurker, whattya think? Apart from Reed, who do you recommend I look at for advice? And if you could elaborate that money out of nothing comment I'd appreciate it!

[FG Lurker]

with Maraboutslim. FG Lurker - I was interested to read your views on money, especially when you said money could be created from nothing if I aint misquoting you.

Took me awhile to figure out what you meant -- those posts were from 2005!

Can you elaborate? I'm serious, not baiting you. I decided last year to up the ante on my finances. In my mid 30s, like so many people I was just living for today and spending most of my cash.

I still think that making money is not a particularly difficult thing to do. It's not magic, it just takes someone who can look at things from a different angle to what most people do. If you can find the right angle and work at it you will make money.

I've been reading money people like John T Reed and he makes the most sense. I like the way he lays into Robert Kiyosaki who's a fucking fraud - he was with Avon originally and made his pile through selling books about how to make money.

Kiyosaki is an interesting guy. He has a lot of supporters and a lot of detractors. It's been awhile since I have read or heard anything from him so I don't really know what he is up to these days. His early books were more motivational than anything else, no hard advice. Some people liked that, some people didn't. I would say that anything that encourages people to think more about their financial situation and financial future is not a bad thing. Many (most!?) people just ignore the disaster that is their current financial situation and hope that somehow it will magically fix itself.

So - FG Lurker, whattya think? Apart from Reed, who do you recommend I look at for advice?

These days I am rather busy expanding one business while laying groundwork for another... I haven't read any books at all since last summer.

And if you could elaborate that money out of nothing comment I'd appreciate it!

Pretty much repeating what I wrote a couple of paragraphs ago: You can make money if you can see something that other people don't or can't (and of course act on what you have noticed!) The more things you analyze the better you get at spotting possibilities.

I'll even give you a personal example: I made about 6 million yen from one idea last year. Certainly not a lot of money but hey, positive is better than negative!

[Mulboyne]

...I made about 6 million yen from one idea last year. Certainly not a lot of money but hey, positive is better than negative! ]
Telegraph: Warren Buffett searches for stockpicker

Legendary US investor Warren Buffett has begun the search for a new chief investment officer to help invest the more than $60bn that his Berkshire Hathaway holding company controls...

:D

[Captain Japan]

[Captain Japan]

Yen Climbs to Three-Month High; Investors Reduce Riskier Trades
Bloomberg

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed to the strongest in almost three months against the dollar as Asian stocks extended a global slump, prompting investors to unwind riskier investments funded by borrowing in Japan.

The currency also rose as a government report showed companies investing at a faster pace than expected, adding to the Bank of Japan's case for raising interest rates. It extended gains to 9.6 percent in five days against the higher-yielding South African rand and 8.3 percent versus the New Zealand dollar as traders pared so-called carry trades, buying yen to pay loans.

``Anything high-yielding or risky is in the firing line against the yen,'' said Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Singapore. ``We're seeing just how scared the market really is.''

The yen gained to 115.88 against the dollar at 12:15 p.m. in Tokyo after reaching 115.46, the strongest since Dec. 8, from 116.75 in New York on March 2. It also advanced to 152.27 per euro after rising to 152.00, the highest since Nov. 27, from 154.06, as Asian shares slid for a fourth day. The yen may rise to 115 this week, said Callow....more...

[Buraku]

the stocks look shitty now

[FG Lurker]

...I made about 6 million yen from one idea last year. Certainly not a lot of money but hey, positive is better than negative! ]Telegraph: Warren Buffett searches for stockpicker

I missed your reply Mulboyne!

I would love to work with Buffett, but somehow I don't think he would gain much by working with me. I'll keep plugging away with 6mil yen ideas I guess!

[d0p3y]

The Aussie Dollar has died in the ass yet again against the yen, not looking good for my holiday!!

Who do we need to bribe to get a good exchange rate around here?

[Charles]

The Aussie Dollar has died in the ass yet again against the yen, not looking good for my holiday!!

Who do we need to bribe to get a good exchange rate around here?

In the case of you and your compatriots, the answer should be obvious. Economic power is concentrated in the hands of those who drive the economy with their goods exchanged for money. That means: you should bribe your bartender.

[Catoneinutica]

The EURO buy rate at MUFG last week was 170 yen! Is Japan looking to devalue the yen to a one-to-one exchange rate with the Korean Won? Will it hit 200 to the EURO?

Here's hoping a Black Swan causes the whole carry-trade industry to unwind before that happens. If not, look out for 300 yen to the EURO, 400 to the GBP, and 200 to the US dollar in a year or two.

-cantone
-extrapolate-erific

[FG Lurker]

Here's hoping a Black Swan causes the whole carry-trade industry to unwind before that happens.

The weak yen suits me very well!

If not, look out for 300 yen to the EURO, 400 to the GBP, and 200 to the US dollar in a year or two.

Sadly this is not likely to happen. I'd be one very happy guy if it did though!

[Catoneinutica]

The weak yen suits me very well!


Sadly this is not likely to happen. I'd be one very happy guy if it did though!

Hyperbole. 200 yen to the EURO is entirely possible, however, as is a ten-year low of 140-ish to the USD.

You like your Yen cheap, huh? You must be one smilin' mofo these days.

[FG Lurker]

You like your Yen cheap, huh? You must be one smilin' mofo these days.

Indeed I am. The lower it goes the more I smile! Happy days indeed.

(Well, not so happy at the gas pump... 141yen/litre of premium sucks, especially when 50 litres goes about 200km. Otherwise though life is grand!)

[Captain Japan]

Tokyo money traders work beneath a screen indicating Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock index plunged and closed at 14,837.66 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange while the dollar is traded at 108.94 yen Wednesday, Nov. 21, 2007. The Nikkei 225 average fell 373.86 points, nearly 2.5 percent, on concerns about the dollar's weakness against the yen. Sentiment was also dampened by persistent concerns about the U.S. economy. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

[FG Lurker]

Oh what a difference a few months can make... My sales into Europe have shot way up but losing 10 points of profit on every sale sure hurts.

[AlbertSiegel]

Oh what a difference a few months can make... My sales into Europe have shot way up but losing 10 points of profit on every sale sure hurts.

How are things looking these days? The USD - YEN is now at 103.85! Been quite a few years since I've seen it like this.

[FG Lurker]

How are things looking these days? The USD - YEN is now at 103.85! Been quite a few years since I've seen it like this.

Things are looking mighty grim.

The way I see it though, if I am hurting then Japan Inc is hurting a helluva lot more. Something has to give somewhere.

That said I am looking into import opportunities too. If the dollar situation improves before I get that set up then I'll stick mainly to exports. Would be good to have a hedge set up though as this is a cyclic and no doubt will reappear a few years down the line.