Earthquake Early Warnings Debut Next Month

[Mulboyne]

The Japan Meteorological Association has provided some information in English on the launch of their new Earthquake Early Warning System next month. These alerts will be broadcast on TV and radio. The association concedes that there will be some false alarms and also points out one of the limitations of the new system:

"The window of time from the announcement of an Earthquake Early Warning until the arrival of the main tremors is very short, i.e. a matter of seconds (or between several seconds and a few tens of seconds). In areas that are close to the focus of the earthquake, the warning may not be transmitted before strong tremors hit."

Good luck.

[Mulboyne]

There appear to be mixed opinions about this new system:

Reuters: Japanese to get a few seconds' warnings of quakes

... However, private radio stations have elected not to join the scheme for six months, amid concerns it might spark panic in trains, theatres, stores and other places where crowds gather. "If an alert was issued to subway passengers during rush hours for example, it could create huge chaos," said Takehiko Yamamura, the president of the Disaster Prevention System Institute, a private think tank. "If someone is driving a car at 100 kph (65 mph) on a highway and receives an alert through radio and others on the same highway don't get the information, what will happen?" he said...

[Iraira]

There appear to be mixed opinions about this new system:

Reuters: Japanese to get a few seconds' warnings of quakes

I for one would welcome a few seconds headsup in the event of a major earthquake. It would give me time to get ready to loot the local conbini.

[Mulboyne]

Kyodo via Japan Today: Early warning system for major quakes starts with a glitch

The Japan Meteorological Agency on Monday launched a system that provides early warning of major earthquakes as well as their anticipated intensities to help the public better cope with significant tremors. NHK and private broadcasters will provide the pre-quake information via TV and radio, agency officials said. Some municipalities, such as Kamaishi, Iwate Prefecture, and Echizen, Fukui Prefecture, release such information after receiving it from the Fire and Disaster Management Agency's "J-Alert" system that transmits emergency information via satellite. The newly launched system, however, was found to have technical limits when an earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 4.9 jolted Kanagawa Prefecture and surrounding areas early Monday. The warning system began preliminary operations before the 2:21 a.m. temblor struck the areas and logged an anticipated intensity of "larger than around 4," instead of lower 5, a level that would prompt the agency to issue a warning. The finding means the system, which was officially launched at 9 a.m., would not have delivered accurate pre-quake information even after tremors hit the areas, including Tokyo.

[Mulboyne]

Mainichi: Quake early warning system fails to warn of temblor in Ishikawa

The Meteorological Agency's state-of-the-art earthquake early warning system failed to predict the latest big quake that hit Ishikawa Prefecture early Saturday morning. The early warning system, which went into service October last year, failed to register the temblor -- which measured a low 5 on the Japanese quake intensity scale -- that hit Wajima, Ishikawa Prefecture, at around 4:33 a.m. on Saturday. Agency officials attributed the failure to an error in the predicted intensity calculated from nearby seismometer data. The warning system uses sensors buried deep underground to detect the first waves of a big quake, and then predicts the intensity of the main tremors that follow. Saturday's failure was caused when the seismometers near the epicenter detected the preliminary tremors, but predicted that the main tremor would only rate a 4 on the Japanese quake intensity scale. The system only issues warnings when the projected intensity hits lower 5 or above. "We'd like to set up more seismometers in order to make our system work more precisely, but it's difficult for budgetary and other reasons," said an agency official during a press conference on Saturday. "We plan to improve the accuracy of the prediction formula by taking into consideration regional characteristics such as ground density (around the seismometers)," he said.

[Mulboyne]

Not working out too well so far...

Asahi: 1st quake alert fast, but not fast enough

The Japan Meteorological Agency on Monday issued its first warning under the early quake alert system, but it reached residents of southern Okinawa Prefecture islands only after the tremor hit. The alert was issued following a magnitude 5.2 temblor near Miyakojima island at 2:32.04 a.m. But it came four to six seconds after the quake shook the island at an intensity of up to 4 on the Japanese scale of 7... After recording the weaker primary wave, which travels faster than the greater secondary wave, and calculating the strength of the coming shock, the agency issues a warning. But Monday's warning was late because the quake occurred so close--in waters about 40 kilometers away--that the secondary wave arrived too soon...NHK aired the alert on radio and TV for about 30 seconds from 2:32.26 a.m.--too late for Miyakojima.

[Mulboyne]

[Doctor Stop]

Another confirmation that Made In Japan don't mean nothing no more.

[IkemenTommy]

Another confirmation that Made In Japan don't mean nothing no more.

Probably, "it's a Sony(TM)"

[Mulboyne]

Yomiuri: Temblor exposed limitations of early-warning system

The major earthquake that hit inland areas of Iwate and Miyagi prefectures Saturday highlighted technological shortcomings in the government's earthquake-warning system. The Meteorological Agency issued a warning at just before 8:43 a.m. of the arrival of strong jolts--the third such warning since the government introduced the system in October. But the warning came several seconds after the temblor struck southern Iwate Prefecture and some other areas close to the focus, which was shallow, at about eight kilometers deep. The warning also arrived too late in other areas near the epicenter. The agency warning issued to the general public said an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.1 on the Richter scale and an intensity of up to 5 on the Japanese seismic scale of 7 would hit Iwate Prefecture. But the agency issued a report 44 minutes and 12 seconds later saying the quake had registered a magnitude of 6.9 and an intensity of upper 6 on the Japanese scale. According to the agency's earthquake- and tsunami-monitoring section, the small number of seismic wave observation spots around the epicenter was the reason for the inaccurate warning. The earthquake-warning system utilizes the difference in time between the arrivals of the primary wave (P wave) and secondary wave (S wave), which cause weak and strong jolts, respectively, in forecasting the scale and the intensity of an earthquake.

Warning helpful in Sendai
Although the warning came too late for people living near the focus of the quake, it proved useful in preventing damage in some cases as a warning was issued before the arrival of strong jolts in areas further than 40 kilometers from the epicenter. The agency issued the warning four seconds after having detected the P wave near the focus via TV and other media outlets. In Sendai, about 100 kilometers from the epicenter, the city-run Namboku subway line received the warning five seconds before the jolts occurred. The emergency stoppage signal was conveyed to 11 trains in service following the earthquake warning and the automatic stop device was activated before the quake hit. No passenger was hurt in the quake. "Trains can't come to a complete stop in five seconds, but the level of danger [for trains in service] is lowered if they slow down before the jolts hit," a spokesman for the subway system said. "I think the warning was extremely useful." The jolts that hit Sendai registered an intensity of up to 5 on the Japanese scale. At the National Hospital Organization's Yamagata Hospital--about 120 kilometers from the epicenter--a clerk on duty at the secretariat noticed the earthquake warning aired on TV and rushed to a ward to check if patients' respirators were working. "Thanks to the warning, I knew a major earthquake was about to hit," the hospital clerk said.

But some people found it of little use. "Just as our family members were talking about evacuating our house [after the jolts hit], we saw the warning on TV," said Katsuko Chiba of Oshu, Iwate Prefecture. "It wasn't so useful." At a nursing home for elderly who require around-the-clock care in Ichinoseki, also in the prefecture, one employee saw the warning on TV when the residents were relaxing in the living room or their own rooms after breakfast. But the employee reportedly was unable to take action in response to the warning. No one at the nursing home was injured in the quake.

[Mulboyne]

Yomiuri: False quake alert disrupts metropolitan train operations

The Meteorological Agency's early alert system issued an erroneously high earthquake warning in the metropolitan area Monday night, disrupting subway and other train systems. An earthquake did occur, off Ibaraki Prefecture, but it measured only 2 on the Japanese intensity scale of 7. The alert system issues secondary wave warnings to train operators, power companies and gas companies. When one of the system's seismometers records preliminary tremors of 100 gals or faster, the system is supposed to warn of an earthquake measuring lower 5 or stronger on the Japanese intensity scale. An earthquake occurred at 7:41 p.m. Monday in the sea off Ibaraki Prefecture. It registered 2 on the intensity scale in Choshi, Chiba Prefecture. The seismometer recorded preliminary tremors with maximum acceleration of only 12 gals. The system, however, issued a strong earthquake warning. In response, the Meteorological Agency inspected the Choshi seismometer and found that it was set to issue a warnings of strong earthquakes when it detected a ground acceleration of only 10 gals.

Because of the false alert, all four Toei subway lines were immediately stopped. The subway's operations resumed after about 10 minutes, but the halt caused delays of up to 16 minutes. Private railways connected to the subway lines also were affected. Keisei Electric Railway Co. experienced delays of up to 18 minutes and there were delays of up to 10 minutes on Keihin Electric Express Railway Co. services. Tokyu Corp.'s Meguro Line and Keio Corp. services also experienced delays. Unmanned Nippori Toneri Liner trains operated by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government's Transportation Bureau were stopped for about nine minutes during the alert. Tobu Railway Co. halted its trains for two to five minutes. According to the agency, an earthquake warning for the general public is issued when at least two seismometers detect tremors that would likely cause an earthquake measuring lower 5 or stronger. Since only one seismometer predicted a strong earthquake, no general alert was issued. East Japan Railway Co. did not halt its trains because it independently decides whether to halt train services based on data collected through its own seismic observation networks and Meteorological Agency warnings.

[Mulboyne]

More comforting news:

Yomiuri: Agency issued 5 false disaster alerts

Public confidence in the Meteorological Agency's system of natural disaster alerts has been badly shaken in the wake of a series of recent erroneous warnings. The agency has issued five such mistaken alerts for disasters such as earthquakes since May--on the heels of two similar errors last year. Despite the agency using cutting-edge tools and equipment, most of the errors were the result of simple mistakes, such as people incorrectly configuring seismometers. The agency is extremely concerned about the recent errors. Tetsu Hiraki, its director general, said the errors "can only have a negative impact [on natural disaster] damage prevention." Experts are also beginning to criticize the agency's response to events.

An earthquake Monday evening in the sea off Ibaraki Prefecture registered 2 on the Japanese seismic scale of 7. Yet the agency issued an erroneous emergency earthquake warning the quake had "a maximum seismic intensity of lower 5 or more." The false alert meant that train services on all four Toei subway lines and other lines in the metropolitan area were stopped. An agency investigation found that the false alarm was due to a seismometer configuration error caused by a company assigned to set seismometers to correctly measure earthquake strength. According to the agency, it installed seismometers at 89 locations nationwide between October and December 2003. To check their operations, it configured them to send alerts responding to minor quakes with a maximum ground acceleration of 10 gals or more.

Once checks were completed in February 2004, the agency hired a contractor to change the settings of the seismometers to normal operation levels. At a normal operational level the seismometers send alerts for preliminary tremors of 100 gals or faster. But Monday's false alert came about because one seismometer in Choshi, Chiba Prefecture, was reportedly not reconfigured. The agency also neglected to inspect it after receiving a report that operation checks had been completed.

At the same time, pandemonium struck the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, a foundation located on the premises of the agency's building in Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo, when it received an alert for an earthquake with a highly improbable magnitude of 12.7 and the maximum intensity of 7 on the Japanese scale. This error was caused by a combination of an erroneous transmission from the agency and a programming error on a receiver. The receiver's manufacturer found that such a malfunction would occur if data transmitted by the agency lacked information on the quake's magnitude and the location and depth of its seismic source. The erroneous signal sent Monday was an alert for selected users such as rail, electricity, gas and distribution companies.

"The reliability of the alerts increases when data from multiple seismometers are calculated," an agency spokesman said. "The first alert uses only one seismometer, so the information has a large margin of error. We were sure we told [companies] not to use it." However, a spokesman for one of the firms that received the alert said: "Everything depends on time, so we want to get information as quickly as possible."

It was also learned that benchmarks for flood warning data have been erroneously entered at 85 locations across the country. Mistaken tide measurement data have also been found at eight locations, including Nagoya and Takamatsu. Most of these errors could have been avoided if employees had performed checks. But in the case of the mistaken tide measurement data, employees of the Kagoshima district meteorological station were found to have fabricated data. The people involved were disciplined. "The amount of information we deal with has grown, as has the range of operations we perform," an employee in the agency's planning division said.

[Charles]

More comforting news:

Yomiuri: Agency issued 5 false disaster alerts

I have said it before and I'll say it again: false quake warnings cause more damage than earthquakes. That is why California passed a law prohibiting quake warnings, with a penalty of jail time.

[amdg]

Agreed. They're bullshit, in the Penn and Teller sense.

[Mulboyne]

Yomiuri: Fraudsters cash in on quake-alert devices

Scams involving the supposed sale of Earthquake Early Warning Receivers have come to light at various locations across the nation, according to the Meteorological Agency, which developed the devices. People were reportedly deceived into paying money to buy receivers by fraudsters who told them installation of the devices was a legal obligation. The agency developed the receivers to warn the public about major quakes just before they strike. But reports of the scam involving the receivers emerged even before the system was officially introduced in October. Eight cases have been confirmed across the nation so far, the agency said. In July last year, a salesman visited a condominium in Osaka and told residents they would have to install the receivers in accordance with new regulations. The salesman said a building maintenance company had asked him to inform them of the mandatory installation. According to the National Consumer Affairs Center of Japan, a woman in her 80s living in the Kinki region signed a contract worth 60,000 yen for a receiver in November. The salesperson reportedly told her the device would emit an official warning one or two hours before an earthquake struck. In Ota Ward, Tokyo, this year, a man reportedly visited a home saying the agency had sent him to install a receiver. In Shinagawa Ward a man wearing clothes bearing a "Meteorological Agency" logo reportedly visited a house and said he wanted to talk about earthquakes. In Numazu, Shizuoka Prefecture, some households reported that they had received phone calls starting in May from a person claiming to be a city government official, who said, "We'd like to know your cell phone number so we can e-mail you news about earthquakes quickly." The agency said its staff does not offer door-to-door sales of the devices.

[Charles]

Yomiuri: Fraudsters cash in on quake-alert devices

Hmm.. there might be some money to be made installing these warning devices...

[IkemenTommy]

OK, I need one for the Vista Sidebar gadget if any working one is available.