What's up with the value of the YEN?

[nottu]

[pheyton]

Ah, but Nottu, that 5.7% is not accurate. It does not include people who the Gov. has conveniently decided not to count. For instance if you stopped looking for a job or are no longer on unemployment you don't count. The actual figure is much higher. Just like the actual inflation figure is much higher since they no longer count FOOD or ENERGY! Two of the biggest necessities we have.

Milk has gone up $1.00 in the past 5 months where I live. Food across the board has gone through the roof. Thank god for Trader Joe's though.

I was in high school during the last recession under the last Boosh. It was miserable. My parents lost just about everything. I expect this one to be worse than that one. Especially since we have been hollowed out since that recession. American doesn't make much anymore, besides wothless CDO's and the likes.

At least in Japan we have family with large residencies to live with. Obachan even has her own hotsprings in the house!! I could retreat there for a year or 2.

[nottu]

[Charles]

The real rate of unemployment is always higher than the government figures. That's why I used the term "official". When the official unemployment rate hits 7.0%, the real rate will be somewhat higher - serious problem. The 7% figure might not be too long in coming.

Posted this morning on Eschaton, a political blog run by a former Economics professor:

There isn't one "right" measure of unemployment. The one called "U3" is the standard one we hear about, but the BLS also has other measures which are worth looking at. U6, the broadest measure, is at 10.3%, up from 8.3% a year ago.

[Charles]

[nottu]

[pheyton]

Nottu, I'll take that bet! A yen at 130 would send the economy into a siezure because of inflation.

The dollar will continue to sink throught this year and probably well into next year because the American Financial system is such a house of cards. There is no way the yen will go even past 118 unless there is some major collapse, which is unlikley. I would bet that we would see the yen hit the 100 mark between now and Dec.

Itulip.com is a good site to watch. I also watch FT.com, but you can not trust any American press for real news.

[nottu]

[Greji]

Jack - you're out.

You shouldn't be so hard on poor ole Jack. He loves to bet. It's just paying off that gives him a tad of trouble.....

[pheyton]

Whoa whoa, I wasn't talking about a 3 year out projection. I was specifically talking through out this year and into next because we know America will continue to wallow in recession. Which will keep pressure on the dollar which in turn will keep pressure on the yen.

Shit, who knows what will happen in 3 years. Maybe American scientist or Japanese scientists will discover cold fusion and solve our energy problems. It's just too far to project. But I will take you up on a short term mark.

[nottu]

[IkemenTommy]

Do you guys really think that we will break the 100 point again any time soon?

[Buraku]

[Buraku]

[pheyton]

Bad new for the $, lower Yen?

by Ye Xie and Anchalee Worrachate

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar's biggest rally against the euro in almost eight years may prove fleeting as investors return their focus to slowing U.S. growth, the world's largest foreign exchange traders say.

After a 3.6 percent surge last week against the single European currency, Bank of America Corp. advised clients to exit trades betting on more short-term gains. Morgan Stanley still forecasts the greenback will approach a record low by October as the U.S. housing slump and credit-market losses keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year.

Barclays Plc in London and New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. said trading patterns suggest the dollar's 5.1 percent gain in the past three weeks measured by an index of six major trading partners can't be sustained.

``I would not chase the dollar's strength versus the euro as the pair has moved beyond interest-rate support,'' said Sophia Drossos, a strategist in New York at Morgan Stanley, who also recommended closing out bets on the dollar versus the currencies of Malaysia and Singapore. ``The dollar is not out of the woods. It will take the market a while to come around to our point of view.''

The dollar strengthened to $1.5005 to the euro last week from $1.5564 on Aug. 1, the biggest weekly increase on a percentage basis since January 2005. It surged 2.08 percent on Aug. 8, touching $1.4998, the most since Sept. 4, 2001, and the second largest rally since the euro was introduced in 1999.

Unsustainable Recovery

Those gains sent the dollar above the $1.51 per euro yearend mean target of 39 analysts in a survey by Bloomberg. By the end of 2009, the dollar will likely strengthen to $1.40 per euro, based on the estimates. It gained 6.4 percent since hitting a record low of $1.6038 on July 15.

In addition to the gains against the euro, the dollar also appreciated 2.3 percent versus the yen to 110.18, the most in eight weeks. The euro lost 1.29 percent against the Japanese currency to 165.38, the biggest drop in 13 weeks.

U.S. economic data suggest that a sustained recovery isn't imminent, said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America in New York. Interest-rate swaps indicate the currency should trade at about $1.54 per euro, said Sinche, who still forecasts that the dollar will strengthen to $1.45 per euro by the second half of next year.

The number of U.S. home foreclosure filings more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data. Government reports this week may show retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July, the first decrease since February, and the U.S. trade deficit widened in June to $62 billion from $59.8 billion.

`Particularly Weak'

Morgan Stanley predicts the dollar will weaken to $1.60 by October, because the faltering U.S. economy means the Fed is unlikely to raise rates anytime soon, Drossos said.

Rather then a vote of confidence in the outlook for the U.S. economy, the euro's tumble on Aug. 8 was triggered by traders paring bets the European Central Bank will lift borrowing costs after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter, Trichet spoke after the central bank left the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent.

Gross domestic product growth in the euro region is expected to slow to 1.7 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2009, from 2.68 percent in 2007, according the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. U.S. GDP will slow to 1.5 percent before rebounding to 1.8 percent next year, another survey showed.

`Certainly Brighter'

``The outlook is looking certainly brighter for the dollar,'' said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy in New York at Wells Fargo & Co. ``The most significant factor is that there are now much clearer signs that U.S. economic weakness has spread to global economic weakness.''

Wells Fargo forecasts the dollar strengthening to 1.48 per euro by the end of next year.

David Woo, head of currency strategy in London at Barclays, disagrees. ``The euro-dollar market is in an overshoot territory,'' he said. Barclays, the world's third largest currency trader, according to an annual survey by Euromoney magazine, expects the dollar to weaken to $1.57 per euro by year- end.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOmmsm0mVWyA&refer=home

[Buraku]

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gsiU1q0lg6l7WYbSNhPkfPHPYwzQ

The dollar on Thursday fell against major rival currencies, pressured by lingering worries about a weak US economy and struggling financial markets, dealers said.

In early London trading, the European single currency rose to 1.4783 dollars from 1.4745 in New York late on Wednesday.

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar sank to 108.73 yen from 109.88.

"The dollar has been undermined by renewed concerns over the health of the US financial system," said analyst Lee Hardman at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London.

[TFG]

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gsiU1q0lg6l7WYbSNhPkfPHPYwzQ

Tell me about.
I made 18,000 Yen in 15 mins trading this morning, then lost 414,000 Yen this afternoon. That's life.

[pheyton]

In case you missed this boulder of news the other day:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.

"The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say 'the worst is to come'" he told a financial conference.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSSP21695020080819

Along with this today:

Lehman Brothers, the beleaguered US investment bank, held secret talks to sell up to 50 per cent of its shares to South Korean or Chinese parties in the first week of August but failed to reach agreement with either.

The South Koreans and Chinese walked away after concluding that Lehman was asking too high a price, said New York-based people familiar with the potential buyers. Lehman declined to comment.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/586ed412-6ee6-11dd-a80a-0000779fd18c.html

[TFG]

Oooopa. Duplicated pest. Ha

[TFG]

Phew, I managed to turn yesterdays 414,000 Yen loss into a handsome days profit. I agree though, it is very hard to judge the trends over the last couple of days.

[Buraku]

Japan shares fall on renewed credit concerns
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/08/26/ap5357148.html

Japanese stocks fell Tuesday as renewed credit market concerns rattled investor sentiment in very light trading.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index slipped 0.78 percent to 12,778.71, while the broader Topix index retreated 0.79 percent to 1,229.4.

Trading was extremely lethargic, with the value of shares on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange hitting its lowest point this year.

Masatoshi Sato, senior strategist at Mizuho Investors Securities, said investors seem to be paralyzed. Lackluster activity over the past few weeks has been blamed on the "Obon" holidays in early August and then the Olympics. But the excuses have dried up this week, he said.

"Honestly, I've never seen such thin trading," Sato said. "A do-nothing attitude is very strong."

On Wall Street overnight, the Dow Jones industrial average fell by more than 240 points as worries about American International Group Inc. touched off broader concerns about U.S. financial companies.

The jitters extended to Tokyo, where banking, consumer finance and securities issues led declines.

[pheyton]

9-1-08 Yen is at 108 vs $. Everything is in the red.

[Buraku]

Stocks rise as oil tumbles on relief over Gustav

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gHs5OM3gFG_DytQQZFbWfgPT08MAD92UNOJ80

Stocks rose Tuesday as oil prices fell sharply on reports that the Gulf Coast and its oil facilities have been spared heavy damage from Hurricane Gustav. Trading was erratic, though, and the Dow Jones industrial average gave up half its earlier advance to trade up about 110 points.

Light, sweet crude fell $6.24 to $109.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, easing Wall Street's concerns not only about Gustav, but also about inflation's impact on the broader economy.

The market's optimism was also boosted by news that Korea Development Bank is in talks about taking part in a possible acquisition of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Such a move could allay some of Wall Street's worries about the troubled financial sector.

But trading was choppy, particularly as the stocks of oil and metals companies acted as a drag on the broader market.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock fell 1.75 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.32 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 1.51 percent, and France's CAC-40 advanced 1.50 percent.

[pheyton]

There are 3 more hurricanes in the pike. There's no telling if they will charge towards the gulf though.

[uchimizu]

Anyways, let's be clear, people able to predict how currencies will evolve in the next weeks are not posting in this forum: they are making a lot of money in the market.

While it is easy to spot some long term imbalances in currencies (dollar undervalued maybe), it is awfully difficult to predict them in the short to medium term.

Same for oil price.

[TFG]

Anyways, let's be clear, people able to predict how currencies will evolve in the next weeks are not posting in this forum: they are making a lot of money in the market.

While it is easy to spot some long term imbalances in currencies (dollar undervalued maybe), it is awfully difficult to predict them in the short to medium term.

Same for oil price.

I disagree with this.
The other night at 9 pm a news flash appeared on TV announcing Fukuda was going to make his resignation speech. It is unusual for such an event to occur in the evening and especially before the US market opens.
I bought $200,000 at 9:10, at 9:35 the Yen lost nearly 1 Yen against the dollar. I sold the US currency and skimmed over $2,500 in less than an hour.

Short term is much easier to plot than long term even without such dramatic events as the PM resigning.



This morning was pretty fluid also, so I am done for the day, well at least until I see another good opportunity this evening.

[Charles]

II bought $200,000 at 9:10, at 9:35 the Yen lost nearly 1 Yen against the dollar. I sold the US currency and skimmed over $2,500 in less than an hour.

So you made 1.25% return on an extremely risky trade. I am not impressed. You could get similar returns on the collateralized overnight loan market, it might take a day or two but there's less risk.

[TFG]

So you made 1.25% return on an extremely risky trade. I am not impressed. You could get similar returns on the collateralized overnight loan market, it might take a day or two but there's less risk.

Well, first of all, I am not trying to impress anyone but rather am making the point that unlike stated, short term market trend is mush easier to read than long term.

Also, when you consider that the actual investment here is only 1,000,000 Yen and max leverage up to 1/100 then the profit on the Fukuda news is well over 25% and this mornings trade 9%.

Not sure if any leverage is possible in the "collateralized overnight loan market" but I am sure it is not 1/100 as in FX trading.

PS: There was nothing even remotely "Risky" in capitalizing on the Fukuda resignation, it was a sure deal.

[Behan]

Well, first of all, I am not trying to impress anyone but rather am making the point that unlike stated, short term market trend is mush easier to read than long term.

Also, when you consider that the actual investment here is only 1,000,000 Yen and max leverage up to 1/100 then the profit on the Fukuda news is well over 25% and this mornings trade 9%.

Not sure if any leverage is possible in the "collateralized overnight loan market" but I am sure it is not 1/100 as in FX trading.

PS: There was nothing even remotely "Risky" in capitalizing on the Fukuda resignation, it was a sure deal.

If you have that kind of money, I think you need to change your name. You are no longer Truly F*cked. I should take that name.

But it's good things are going well for you, anyway.

[TFG]

Well, I was TFG not so long ago.
And probably will be in the not too distant future so I think I will retain the name just in case.

What's so wrong that you want the name anyway?

There is always a way out, we just have to find it.