What's up with the value of the YEN?

[Behan]

In a job, ALT work, where the salaries get cheaper and cheaper.

After making the house payment I barely have enough money to make it to the next pay day, let alone save anything.

To get back on topic of the thread, is FOREX trading difficult? Please consider that you are talking to an idiot.

[TFG]

No, I doubt I am talking to an idiot.

I am relatively new to FX trading myself and have only been trading just over a month. I did spend a month reading everything on the web I could and paid special attention to something called the Fibonacci theory.
If you are interested in checking into FX trading I recommend you read a few things on it. FX trading can make you a handsome profit and it can also trash your entire account if you are not careful.
On the upside, you can start an account with as little as 50,000 Yen and you can use leverage of up to 100 times the amount invested, but I don't recommend anyone use 100 times leverage as if the currency you are trading drops say 10 pips your account will be wiped out. And very often I will see my trades drop 10 or 15 pips before an upswing bringing in around 40-60 pips.
The good thing about FX trading is even if you leverage your 50,000 Yen to 50,000,000 and lose it all, all you lose is the original amount invested.

You can start a DEMO account with toy money for free and practice without any fear of losing money. However, I recommend you only make trades which you would with your own actual money or one can gain too much confidence which will not serve you well when you come to use your own money.
This site has a good basic free demo with about a million Yen in it which someone on the board recommended. Doesn't have Fibonacci studies built into it though.
http://www.fxonline.co.jp/en/

This one has a full range of study tools such as Fibonacci studies which you can apply easily to the charts. However this site only allows a 30 day test of the trading platform, and is rather complicated to use but it is a good one to learn on.
http://www.fxfor.com/en/

I recommend this reading on the Fibonacci theory.
http://forex-tutor.com/How_to_use_Fibonacci_retracements.phtml

Hope this helps.


PS: As I said above one can make a lot of money FX trading but it can also make you broke.
Today, so far, I have made about 180,000 Yen on 2 trades over a 3 hour period, but the other day I lost over 400,000 Yen in less than 30 mins and had to sit on the trades for two days to regain the original investment and settled for a 50,000 Yen profit.

This advice is of course only theoretical advice and I accept no responsibility for anyone using it.

Hmmm, perhaps it is best we make a new thread in the Working in Japan section for anyone that wants to discuss and share information about FX trading constructively.

Just made a New thread.
http://www.fuckedgaijin.com/forums/showthread.php?p=197502#post197502

[pheyton]

[TFG]

Yeah, however the injection of taxpayers cash caused the $ rise over 2 Yen since trading closed on Friday.

If I wasn't trading I would also be very about the influx of taxpayers money.

[Behan]

Capitalism at it's best, privatize the profits, socialize the costs.

Well put.

[nottu]

[TFG]

Only if you complete the sound bite-

Capitalism at it's best, privatize the profits, socialize the costs with your tax dollars.

Not quite as charming is it?

Indeed, the wrong end of the rope.

[Buraku]

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en

Asia's stunning market rally proved to be short-lived as key indexes in the region fell back Tuesday on lingering pessimism about a global slowdown.

From Tokyo to Hong Kong, investors sold off shares to take quick profits amid sentiment that the U.S. government's bailout of ailing mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac wasn't enough to address broader uncertainties in financial markets or boost growth.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 average shed 1.77 per cent to 12,400.65, a day after surging 3.4 per cent.

Seoul's Kospi and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both lost about 1.5 per cent. Taiwan's Weighted Price Index plunged 3.5 per cent after jumping 5.6 per cent Monday.

A day earlier, investors cheered Washington's takeover of the two mortgage companies on hopes the move would help resolve the global credit crunch that has weighed on markets.

But on Tuesday, traders viewed the overall impact of the rescue as limited, said Kenichi Azuma, equity strategist for Cosmo Securities in Tokyo.

I think Jack's longterm 80 bet is an impossibility, it can hit a low of 101.59

however if the yen ever dips near the 100 mark again I expect sudden manipulation from the J-gov and market intervention by the Bank of Japan

Canadian dollar will stay above 100 for the longterm, after reading some of Alistair Darling's statements with people like this honking you can be sure the British pound will hit 200!! and the Euro will keep above the 152 and rising

Don't ask about the Aussie Dollar I don't FX trade and that currency is all over the place, so you kangaroo shaggers who are thinking of converting your money better ask someone else for advice

[pheyton]

Back on pg. 25 I called a 100 yen/ 1 $ within 6 months. Maybe I should have lessened it to 2 months?

[Buraku]

it's about to happen?

Dollar slips vs yen and euro, U.S. plan in focus

The dollar fell against the yen and the euro on Monday as investors awaited details of a planned $700 billion U.S. bailout of bad mortgage debt, showing some scepticism about whether it can solve the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression.
The Bush administration sent the rescue package to Congress seeking authority to tackle the credit crisis, saying the bailout is needed to shield the U.S. economy.
In the proposed package, the U.S. government could acquire up to $700 billion of home and commercial mortgages and related assets from U.S. banks, after curbing short selling and guaranteeing mutual funds in an effort to stabilise financial markets.

Dollar Falls on Concern U.S. Bank Bailout Will Strain Finances

The U.S. currency reached a three-week low against the euro before reports this week that will probably show tighter lending rules damped U.S. home sales and durable goods orders last month. The greenback was near a one-month low against the Swiss franc as two-year Treasury yields fell for the first time in three days on bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

``Problems with the U.S. deficit will haunt the dollar,'' said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan's largest currency broker. ``Spending such a large amount on this rescue package will remind traders that the fiscal health of the U.S. is set to worsen.''

The dollar fell to 106.59 yen as of 1:55 p.m. in Tokyo, from 107.45 in New York late on Sept. 19. The U.S. currency declined to $1.4563 per euro, the lowest since Sept. 2, and traded at $1.4489 from $1.4466. The dollar declined to 1.1016 Swiss francs from 1.1054. The euro bought 154.45 yen from 155.46 yen. The dollar may reach 106.30 yen today, Ishikawa said.

US dollar may get 'crushed' over bailout

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to end the rout in US financial markets may derail the dollar's three-month rally as investors weigh the costs of the rescue.

Turmoil Leaves the Dollar Vulnerable Against Euro

The massive move that sent so-called "safe haven" flows to the U.S. dollar has been exhausted, leaving the currency vulnerable this week to losses against the euro after a month of advances.

[TFG]

At best, that package is nothing more than a bandage on a broken arm.

However, they seem set to throw more money at it.
How much more, who knows but when they throw money at it, traders pick it up.

[Buraku]

sounds like some pain is coming

-

The dollar sank against other major currencies Monday as oil prices soared and uncertainty over the government's bailout plan helped propel flight from the buck.

The 15-nation euro rocketed to $1.4804 in late afternoon trading Monday from $1.4470 late Friday in New York. The British pound leaped to $1.8584 from $1.8365, and the dollar dropped to 105.40 Japanese yen from 107.01.

The dollar fell for a second day against the yen on concern a U.S. government proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets will erode confidence in the nation's finances.

The greenback traded near a one-month low against the euro as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan would increase the nation's debt ceiling by 6.6 percent to $11.315 trillion. The currency also declined before U.S. reports this week that may show home sales slowed, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

``Obviously there are genuine concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal position,'' said Tony Morriss, a senior currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Sydney. ``The dollar will remain under pressure.''

[TFG]

Traders will be able to ride the $ as soon as they announce the real bailout package.

[Tsuru]

Ride it where? Up or down?

[Buraku]

JUST RIDE IT

I find it difficult to predict short term trends, you probably need adrenaline, eyes like a hawk and a good software package such as the one TFG uses to benefit from peaks and troughs

but I can tell you the long term outlook, if the US government and the congress allows this multi-billion $$ bailout to go through there is only one place the US Dollar can go and that is DOWN
Some people might move their Dollar savings and seek refuge in the British Pound, Swiss Franc, the Yen etc and there's a chance the J-gov might someday try a sudden panic manipulation to artificially push a strengthening yen low
but a multi-billion bail is just too heavy and the US Dollar will still drop down and be followed by some nasty inflation

[TFG]

Of course they will ride the $ up as I did when the US announced they were bailing out Fannie Mae and others.

As I said days ago, the 700 billion dollar bail out is simply a band aid on a broken leg. While it was easy to ride that news in trading $, it was obvious that this token bailout would not sustain confidence in the us financial marketplace for very long.

Also, I doubt US investors will be moving savings to the GPB or the Euro, I hear they are moving it into Oil commodities and Gold.
Unfortunately, this means that oil prices are going to inflate drastically, not due to the real price of crude oil but because of the investments being made in oil.

[IkemenTommy]

With that $700B bailout plan failing to pass in the House, the dollar fell to currently at JPY104.7.

Let's see if it'll hit 100 again soon.

[pheyton]

Dow is down 700pts and yen is at 104.06 as I write with 1 hr left in trading.
http://www.kitco.com

[TFG]

Dow is down 700pts and yen is at 104.06 as I write with 1 hr left in trading.
http://www.kitco.com

All due to Bush declaring Martial Law!!!!

[Buraku]

That's a bit alarmist he didn't declare martial law, however some strong critics like Congressman Burgess said they would pass this without representatives getting to look at the bill. Critics say its amount to declaring martial law over the US financial system and looks like from the alarmist news reports some of them were really considering it because that's one way to pass the multi billion bailout without the mandate of the people and a martial law act can stamp out the congress. Anyways the Bailout failed in the house 228 - 205, NASDAQ, European stocks and Nikkei are getting hit hard as investors get nervous

[Big Booger]

I look at it as a natural reset... even if the fucking stock market drops to shit and credit dries up. It's necessary. The American people need lean times to remind them to save and stop living on credit.

I hope they don't pass the fucking bailout ever. And stop any government money from leaking in to bail these cocksuckers out.

[IkemenTommy]

I look at it as a natural reset... even if the fucking stock market drops to shit and credit dries up. It's necessary. The American people need lean times to remind them to save and stop living on credit.

I hope they don't pass the fucking bailout ever. And stop any government money from leaking in to bail these cocksuckers out.

Sound like it's coming from a true conservative there, Big Booger.

You know, the market had a recession back in 2000-2001 and remember how people were taught the same lesson: stop living off credit. Granted, the 2000 dip was nowhere in comparison to as now, but a lot of people lost lots of money over night because they heavily invested in dodgy paper companies. Similarly now, a lot of people have lost their investments on shady real estate deals hoping that the home prices will rise endlessly forever. Just as in 2000, good riddance for those people who tried to play the market and bank on something over night. The government should not bail out on them at all.

Just like someone said on here before, just ride the damned thing. It couldn't possibly last forever. Oh yeah that's right, those people have no savings left in their banks and portfolios to ride it. What a shame.

[TFG]

Resets ups & downs, without these the market would not exist.
It is simply a state of mind that causes the markets to move, & not balance sheets, as most people think.
Balance sheets, terrorism and many other factors cause HUMANS to feel extreme emotions and hence the human hand sells in fear or buys in hope, or the ego will cling to a losing trade and lose more, or greed will ride a trade too far till fear kicks in.

Yesterday was a very good example of this, as you can see from this chart on the USD/JPY.
It is all in the mind!

[IkemenTommy]

TFG, what prog is that you are using?

[TFG]

The trading platform?
Metatrader4.It trades gold, silver, stocks and oil, if that is your bag.

This broker seems to be the only one in Japan providing it.
I love Metatrader as it has a great deal of advanced chart plotting tools that save you calculating things yourself.
It also has trailing stop loss which is the thing to have if you trade in the manner that I do.

Here is the link to ODL Securities Japan.
If you are currency trading they currently have ZERO commissions and 1 pip spread on USD/JPY. The 1 pip deal will return to 2 pips come November.
The JP website is only in Japanese, however they are a British or American company and they also have an English website.

Japanese website http://www.odls.co.jp/

PS: They also have version of MT4 for cell phones and PDAs.


ODLEnglish website
http://www.odlsecurities.com/

Just plotting the next trend for another wave to catch.

[TFG]

TFG, what prog is that you are using?

Are you trading for a living, just for interest or a job?

I recommend anyone wanting to try trading to use the MT4 platform as it is the best I have ever seen and VERY helpful. Today with the aid of MT4, I raised my account by 350,000 Yen, had I been using my regular platform, I think I would have been lucky to score half or perhaps less than half as I tend to trade naked. Haa No, that doesn't mean without clothes.

The MT4 platform may seem a little overpowering if you are coming from a basic trading platform but you can find your way around it in a couple of days.

[Big Booger]

[quote="IkemenTommy"]Sound like it's coming from a true conservative there, Big Booger. ]

I consider myself a moderate with both liberal and conservative leanings. But the reality is America is founded on debt and the past will creep up to bite us each and everyone on the ass. No savings, running up debts, we're fucked.

You have to admit bailing out these scummy sons of bitches who invested money unwisely, took on sub prime and risky loans, and even paid their executives these huge fucking golden parachutes it's disgusting.. The market has to reset and the best way is without US governmental intervention.

If we are going to help anyone we should give money to those who went broke due to health related bankruptcies... We should give some a moratorium on foreclosures, foreclosure counseling, and the like. We should not pay fat cat fucks who counted on the government bailing them out.

And our economy in America is going to take a hit regardless. All this 700 billion dollars is going to do is just postpone it... and then it'll just be rougher because the tax payer will have to foot the fucking bill anyway...

[pheyton]

I consider myself a moderate with both liberal and conservative leanings. But the reality is America is founded on debt and the past will creep up to bite us each and everyone on the ass. No savings, running up debts, we're fucked.

And our economy in America is going to take a hit regardless. All this 700 billion dollars is going to do is just postpone it... and then it'll just be rougher because the tax payer will have to foot the fucking bill anyway...

700billion will make everything worse and will do nothing for the economy unless you are an investment banker, a foreign bank or a preferred share stock holder like Paulson. It will add almost a trillion dollars to the National Debt. Where is that money going to come from? China? Japan? The fuckin FED?

In Debt We Trust
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROYo8OPgIcQ

This all could have been avoided if the banks would have simply re-negotiated these ARMs so that the home buyers would be able to keep their homes. If people truly wanted to avoid further disaster then there should be a moratorium on foreclosures and the re-setting of ARMS. Loans should be renegotiated.

In order to get the country moving again we are going to need an Apollo style program for energy.

Gold!! From the Financial Times:
http://tinyurl.com/3wgr56

[IkemenTommy]

Are you trading for a living, just for interest or a job?

I recommend anyone wanting to try trading to use the MT4 platform as it is the best I have ever seen and VERY helpful. Today with the aid of MT4, I raised my account by 350,000 Yen, had I been using my regular platform, I think I would have been lucky to score half or perhaps less than half as I tend to trade naked. Haa No, that doesn't mean without clothes.

The MT4 platform may seem a little overpowering if you are coming from a basic trading platform but you can find your way around it in a couple of days.

Nah, just interested. I just downloaded the demo version so I'll start playing around with it.

[TFG]

Nah, just interested. I just downloaded the demo version so I'll start playing around with it.

I see, I wish you the best of luck in your new adventure.

This link is very informative on setting up MT4 and indeed this site is the holy grail, if you ever get serious about learning to trade Foreign Currency.
Some real GEMS up there about how to make a good entry and project a safe and profitable exit. The site is rather large though.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2245371


MT4 setup correctly with good confirmation signals for entry and exit, is the business for sure.
It netted me 80,000 Yen this morning before I could drink my first cup of coffee.