Yukio Hatoyama Op-Ed Piece In The NYT

[Mulboyne]

[Mulboyne]

[Zeth3D]

I must say, I think that was very well written

[Taro Toporific]

[Yokohammer]

Still trying to unravel that op-ed piece myself. It reads pretty much like the usual fluff, dancing around points without actually making any. Either I'm not intellectually capable of grasping what Hatoyama is actually trying to say, or he isn't actually saying anything.

That closing quote is just vacant nonsense: "All ideas start as a dream and end with reality." No shit Sherlock. Isn't that sort of the definition of "idea," a concept that, if acted upon, can become reality?

The trouble is that so few really good ideas seem to float to the surface of J-politics, and even fewer actually get acted upon amid all the infighting and vested interest.

[Coligny]

That closing quote is just vacant nonsense: "All ideas start as a dream and end with reality." No shit Sherlock. Isn't that sort of the definition of "idea," a concept that, if acted upon, can become reality?

I think it's moar like : "No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy."

(Von Moltke, not Powell...)

[Greji]

I think it's moar like : "No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy."

(Von Moltke, not Powell...)

[FG Lurker]

Japan's DPJ Signals Tolerance for Strong Yen
WSJ.com, August 13, 2009

The Democratic Party of Japan's drive to jump-start domestic demand means it might tolerate a rising yen if it takes power this month, reflecting a view that a strong currency might eventually benefit the ailing economy.

DPJ officials have indicated that while their party has no intention to guide the yen higher, it is more attuned to the benefits than to the drawbacks of a strong domestic currency. That means that if the leading opposition party wins the Aug. 30 general election, as is widely expected, it will likely stay the course on Japan's five-year-old policy of refraining from intervention in the currency market except in extreme circumstances.

[...]

Naoki Minezaki, an upper house member who has served several times as the DPJ's opposition finance minister, said a gradual, market-driven rise in the yen is needed now.

"That would enable people to buy more goods [from foreign nations] with the same amount of income," he said. "If consumers gain greater purchasing power, that could work positively for consumption."

(Full Story)

I see lots of low-paying service industry jobs in Japan's future.

[FG Lurker]

Japanese Voters Eager for Change
The Washington Post, August 27, 2009

Japanese voters are on the brink of doing something they have not been willing to do in more than half a century: throw the bums out.

The opposition Democratic Party is surging toward what polls predict will be a landslide victory Sunday. It would end 54 years of near-continuous rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which led Japan to stupendous postwar wealth but in recent years has become stagnant, sclerotic and poisonously unpopular.

The opposition party's leader, Yukio Hatoyama, 62, an elegantly attired, Stanford-educated engineer, seems to derive much of his popularity from the simple act of being a sentient replacement for Prime Minister Taro Aso, whose tone-deaf leadership over the past year has made him an object of derision, even in his own party.

[...]

As its marquee incentive for dumping the LDP, the Democratic Party is promising that it will pay parents as much as $276 a month to raise a child until he or she graduates from junior high.

[...]

"If that money is going to come, then it is well worth voting for the Democratic Party," said Aya Koike, a 20-year-old who came with her two infant children to listen to Hatoyama's speech. She works nights in a Tokyo restaurant but could quit if the government began paying her $552 a month to look after her kids.

Hatoyama's party is also promising to do away with highway tolls, cut business taxes and increase the minimum pension -- all without raising the consumption tax in the near future. The party also says that it will somehow find a way not to increase the staggering government debt, which is the highest among industrialized nations, at 180 percent of gross domestic product.

(Full Story)

The DPJ seems to want to recreate Japan as a European-style Social Democracy. They claim they won't raise taxes but it's impossible to increase and add benefits without paying for them somehow. 20% sales tax and much higher income taxes are definitely on the horizon if these social programs actually do come to pass.

I think I'll move to HK to take advantage of the strong yen (export to Japan) without getting ass-raped on taxes to pay for 20yo mothers who already have two kids.

[dimwit]

I see lots of low-paying service industry jobs in Japan's future.

Welcome to the last ten years.

As for the speech, it said nothing but made him look intelligent.

Looking at the DJP in general I get the feeling that most of there 'ideas' were formulated about three years ago when they didn't seem to have any hope of winning the election. Now they are having to modify everything because their policies were decided by three guys in a broom closet.

[FG Lurker]

Welcome to the last ten years.

First look at all the manufacturing that has moved offshore over the past 10 to 15 years. Now imagine how much more will move if the yen gets stronger.

The stronger the yen gets the more yen expenses (salaries, fixed assets, etc) eat into exporters' profits. This gets to a point where companies either go bankrupt or move their manufacturing offshore. For a country that has manufacturing and exporting as it's economic foundation a strengthening currency is most definitely not a good thing.

This is why I made the comment about the increase in service jobs. What jobs are left for the not-so-educated parts of a population when manufacturing jobs disappear? Construction is one area (more expressways anyone?) Seasonal farm work is another area, for anyone who doesn't mind living in the inaka. For city dwellers though, working two or more low-paying service industry jobs is quite likely the only option.

Looking at the DJP in general I get the feeling that most of there 'ideas' were formulated about three years ago when they didn't seem to have any hope of winning the election. Now they are having to modify everything because their policies were decided by three guys in a broom closet.

That sounds about right to me. I'm not sure the best guys to run the country are the ones who really have no ideas based on reality... (That's not to say I like the LDP...I just don't want to end up with something even worse.)

[FG Lurker]

Lost in Japan's Election Season: The Economy
New York Times, August 28, 2009

TOKYO -- While Japanese voters seem poised to end the Liberal Democratic Party's long hold on power on Sunday, the momentous election has focused surprisingly little attention on the pressing problems that threaten the world's second largest economy.

Japan's challenges are enormous, and growing in severity. The nation is still in search of a new recipe for growth almost two decades after its export-driven model hit the skids. And now it must also find a way to pay for a rapidly aging population, despite a crushing government debt that will soon grow to twice as large as its $5 trillion economy.

Japan's weakness was exposed during the current financial crisis, when its economy fell harder than other major economies ? shrinking an annualized 11.7 percent in the first quarter. The government of Prime Minister Taro Aso responded with a $270 billion dose of old-style public-works spending that has so far produced only a small rebound, economists say.

[...]

"Both parties are ducking the hard issues," said Takatoshi Ito, a professor of economic policy at the University of Tokyo. "What they do present is a Band-Aid for these problems, not the real surgery that Japan needs."

[...]

"It is not clear that either party has an economic philosophy, besides let's spend more money," said Robert Feldman, an economist in Tokyo for Morgan Stanley.

[...]

Still, the ballooning national debt remains a major constraint on growth and spending that neither party seems willing to face. So far, the country has financed its growing debt, which is several times higher than American public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, by tapping its $15 trillion pool of personal savings, the product of years of high savings rates and hefty trade surpluses.

But when it finally burns through that pile of domestic cash, Japan may find that overseas investors demand sky-high interest rates, or balk altogether at buying Japanese debt.

"This could be financial Armageddon," said Naoki Iizuka, a senior economist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. "Foreign investors could see Japanese government bonds as worthless paper."

Mr. Iizuka says Japan has at most five more years to get its fiscal house in order before facing the prospect of serious capital flight.

[...]

But the current election may offer one big economic benefit, if it brings a change of Japan's political guard. The ouster of the Liberal Democrats would rob Japan's entrenched interests of their biggest defender, and open the door to newcomers.

"This would be the end of the old system," Mr. Iizuka said. "It could make possible the changes we all know Japan needs."

(Full Story)

I wish the size of the Japanese national debt received more press coverage both domestically and internationally. Domestically it might help the populace understand that increasing government handouts can't continue forever. Internationally it might shine a bit more light on how fucked up things are here and how ridiculous it is for the yen to be so strong.

[Kuang_Grade]

Naoki Minezaki, an upper house member who has served several times as the DPJ's opposition finance minister, said a gradual, market-driven rise in the yen is needed now.

"That would enable people to buy more goods [from foreign nations] with the same amount of income," he said. "If consumers gain greater purchasing power, that could work positively for consumption."

With falling incomes/wages/population, internal consumption won't have much chance to improve the overall economic health of the country and a high yen isn't going do exporters any favors and increased price competition from cheaper imports is not likely to help many domestic industries as well.

[Mulboyne]

This editorial has turned into a minor farce. Initially, the original Japanese piece appeared in The Voice. It was translated into English and first published by the Christian Science Monitor. From there, it went on to appear on the NYT op-ed website but, apparently, not in the paper itself. Hatoyama was approached about his piece and his first reaction was to say that it twisted his words (Japanese). That seemed to be an implicit criticism of the CSM & NYT which the press followed up to find out how these words became "twisted". It now transpires that Hatoyama's own press people authorized the translation (Japanese). While Hatoyama is declaring that his views are only properly conveyed in the full text as it appeared in The Voice, his office is admitting that they cut the piece down to size and omitted parts which they thought too unclear.

It's hardly a scandal but, as you can imagine, some in the press are taking this as an indication that the DPJ runs a loose ship at the highest levels.

[Catoneinutica]

I have been abducted by aliens, says Japan's first lady
(Oh, and she also knew Tom Cruise in a previous life)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/i-have-been-abducted-by-aliens-says-japans-first-lady-1780888.html

[Midwinter]

This editorial has turned into a minor farce. Initially, the original Japanese piece appeared in The Voice. It was translated into English and first published by the Christian Science Monitor. From there, it went on to appear on the NYT op-ed website but, apparently, not in the paper itself. Hatoyama was approached about his piece and his first reaction was to say that it twisted his words (Japanese). That seemed to be an implicit criticism of the CSM & NYT which the press followed up to find out how these words became "twisted". It now transpires that Hatoyama's own press people authorized the translation (Japanese). While Hatoyama is declaring that his views are only properly conveyed in the full text as it appeared in The Voice, his office is admitting that they cut the piece down to size and omitted parts which they thought too unclear.

It's hardly a scandal but, as you can imagine, some in the press are taking this as an indication that the DPJ runs a loose ship at the highest levels.

Further more, I believe one of the major news agencies reported today (can't find the link, sorry) that the DPJ admitted translating the piece was a mistake and that it was only ever intended for domestic consumption. It's amazing to see the Japanese continue to believe that anything written in their native language is automatically encoded aganist prying foreign eyes. WaiWai redux?

[IkemenTommy]

Hatoyama wants to incorporate Thunderbird-like special forces in the UN... (Japanese)
[yt]jAA3-80dwnk[/yt]

Like the old saying, Elections have consequences. The Minshitos have no grasp of reality. If I remember correctly, the UN already has "peacemakers" around the world wearing those blue construction-site helmets and armed with pellet guns

[Mulboyne]

The Wall Street Journal has also republishedthe controversial translation of Hatoyama's opinion piece. Tobias Harris tries to work out the chronology of how the world got to see it in the first place in this blog post.

[Greji]

Like the old saying, Elections have consequences. The Minshitos have no grasp of reality. If I remember correctly, the UN already has "peacemakers" around the world wearing those blue construction-site helmets and armed with pellet guns

And Japan has been fighting tooth and nail to keep from sending anyone on those armed with WMD's like pellet guns.....

[Mulboyne]

Huffington Post: Lost in Syndication - The Case of the Hatoyama Essay
I've been centrally embroiled in a fascinating controversy involving an essay published in a Japanese magazine by Yukio Hatoyama, the soon-to- be prime minister of Japan, that caused a big stir when excerpts were published abroad, especially in the United States, which in turn caused a bigger stir back in Japan. Hatoyama's essay extolled the virtues of "fraternity" within societies and among nations, criticized the excesses of US-led globalization and mused about the fate of the dollar and a possible future East Asian community. The old reflexes that set in motion this latest lost-in-translation episode suggest that neither the tendency toward insularity in Japan nor arrogance in America have quite adjusted to the new realities of the interconnected global age.

First, the facts. When I learned of Hatoyama's essay, entitled "My Political Philosophy," which appears in the September issue of the Japanese magazine VOICE, I immediately asked my associate in Japan to obtain permission to translate and syndicate an excerpted reprint worldwide. The Global Viewpoint Network of Tribune Media Services (formerly the Los Angeles Times Syndicate), which I edit, has 35 million readers in 15 languages through scores of the world's top newspapers. My associate faxed over a letter to VOICE explaining that Global Viewpoint appears in as many as 100 papers worldwide. We received permission from the editor of VOICE, who in turn checked with Hatoyama's office, which agreed and provided the English translation. "VOICE and Hatoyama's office are happy for you to run an excerpt on Global Viewpoint," my associate e-mailed me. "Please mention VOICE."

Our abridged version of the essay was published across the world, from El Pais in Madrid to O Estado de Sao Paulo in Brazil to the Gulf News in the Middle East to the Bangkok Post, among others. In the US it ran in the Christian Science Monitor and the Huffington Post. When the International Herald Tribune picked it up, it was posted on the New York Times website, which they share. In all cases it was clearly noted that it was excerpted from the essay in VOICE. If there was any confusion about "excerpt" and "syndication," it resulted from a good faith misunderstanding all around. (Despite some complaints in Japan that the abridged version gave short shrift to Hatoyama's idea of "fraternity," the fact is that El Pais, O Estado de Sao Paulo and the Bangkok Post -- you couldn't get a broader spread -- all used the word "fraternity" in their chosen headlines).

As the contents of the essay wended its way into awareness in the US just as the Democratic Party routed the LDP with a landslide in the August 30 election, it elicited a strong reaction from some "Japan experts" (mostly unengaged former diplomats in think tanks), neo-conservative magazines such as The Weekly Standard and some Japan-watching blogs. Most critics seemed shocked at what they regarded as a surprise bout of insolence from a normally indolent ally. Used to obsequious mumbo-jumbo from the Japanese political class, these critics apparently found it hard to swallow the straight talk about America's shortcomings as an economic model or about the relative decline of American power noted in the essay. In effect, they seemed to consider it a slap in the face of all those Americans who had just bought Toyotas through the "clunkers for cash" program.

As the ripples of this stir made their way back to Tokyo, meek diplomats scurried into apologia mode while others in the media hastened to blame Hatoyama's naivete for letting ideas meant for domestic consumption become splashed across the pages of the global press. Hatoyama and his staff expressed extremely agitated surprise that his words had shown up in the on-line edition of the New York Times, the very heart of the American establishment. By week's end, the "kerfuffle," as one analyst called it, was front-page headlines. Hatoyama felt compelled to put in a call to President Obama to affirm the centrality of the Japan-US alliance in the new government's foreign policy.

All this in itself is indeed surprising. Doesn't everyone get that today we live in a global glass house? That in a world tied together by social networks, the Internet, You Tube, web journalism, innumerable blogs and even print syndication, anything you say in Japan is going to be heard everywhere else? Kurt Campbell, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Asia and the Pacific said in a phone conference with the Pacific Council on September 10 that, from what he could tell, Hatoyama had prepared the essay for a "narrow audience" in Japan during the campaign and didn't imagine it would get such enormous circulation worldwide. In any case, he said, power now imposes a different discipline than campaigning).

The reaction of US critics was surprising in a sillier way. Who hasn't criticized the excesses of American "market fundamentalism" or the damage done to "local economies" by globalization, as Hatoyama did in his essay? When Barack Obama was a community organizer on the south side of Chicago he sought to help those who lost their manufacturing jobs because of globalization. He won the presidency by campaigning against the unregulated fat cats on Wall Street whose greed and irresponsibility brought the US economy to ruin. In Europe, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy -- not to be speak of Brazilian President Lula --have all railed against American-style capitalism and sought to curb derivatives and hedge funds. As I write, the European Union, led by France and Germany, is preparing to put tight reins on compensation and bonuses for the big bankers when the G-20 meets in Pittsburgh. Indeed, is there a world leader today who doesn't criticize market fundamentalism?

Some in the US scored Hatoyama as "nearly anti-American" because he said in his essay that, after the war in Iraq and the financial crisis, America was losing its preeminence, trying to hang on to its dominance while China was trying to assert its power, and Japan was caught in between. I remember no similar outcry, to take one of many examples, when French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner uttered this biting epitaph of America's once lustrous image: "The magic is gone." Within a decade, Hatoyama guessed, the dollar would no longer be the prime reserve currency -- something a UN commission has actually recommended and China's leaders, who are also America's bankers, have spoken about openly. While pointedly reaffirming the centrality of the US-Japan alliance to East Asian stability, Hatoyama also voiced the hope that, as in Europe, one day an East Asian community would replace suspicion and conflict among nations of the region. Everytime the ASEAN nations get together, for example, isn't that all they talk about?

Only Americans with an outdated sense of US supremacy could quarrel with the obvious. Hatoyama's great crime, I suppose, was merely to be the last to say what everybody knows. I suspect however, that President Obama himself pretty much shares Hatoyama's general worldview about the market and society, and about "fraternity" in an interdependent world. This is certainly the sense I got when the Global Viewpoint Network syndicated Obama's op-ed before the last G-20 summit, "A Time for Global Action." Also, having been photographed reading Fareed Zakaria's "Post-American World" during the campaign, Obama surely appreciates Hatoyama's description of the shifting balance of global power.

Clearly, as this controversy exposes, both Japanese insularity, which in my view has deepened in the "lost decade" of stagnation, and the stubborn remnants of American arrogance need a reality check. In the information age, no country is an island anymore, not even Japan. Geography is no longer destiny. Though a far younger nation, America's adjustment won't be any easier. As Lee Kuan Yew, the godfather of Asian modernization once put it to me, "for America to be displaced, not in the world, but only in the Western Pacific, by Asian people long despised and dismissed with contempt, is emotionally very difficult to accept. Americans believe their ideas are universal. This sense of cultural supremacy will make the adjustment most difficult."

Of course, as Kurt Campbell said in the Pacific Council call, and I agree, it is in the US (and global) interest that this be a "trans-Pacific, not a Pan-Asian" century. Both new leaders,Yukio Hatoyama and Barack Obama, have big visions. That is a hopeful place to start in unwinding the old reflexes.

[nottu]