Is Japan finally finished?

[Samurai_Jerk]

I was at a neworking event last week and had several conversations with different people (all gaijin) who said they think Japan is done. One group of guys worked for a relocation company and said the number of expats and business they've moved out of Japan this year is unbelievable and like nothing they've ever seen. Another guy said that when he flew out of Narita in the Spring there were stacks of gaijin cards that must have been turned in by people who weren't coming back. I've heard the same opinion from several other people since the end of last year and personally know some people who were supposed to be lifers that either have left or are seriously considering it because things have gotten so bad for them. On top of that a lot of foreign financial institutions are scaling back in Japan and beefing up in HK or Singapore.

Of course no matter what the situation or the importance of a country, people can always find a way to make money but is this finally it?

I'm going with "Yes" by the way.

[Yokohammer]

Also have to keep in mind that an exodus of FGs has the side effect of raising the "market value" of the few who remain.

I'd say that for people who were making silly money here, it's done ... for the time being. But I'd also say that given time it'll bounce back.

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

There is light at the end of the tunnel...

...but it's coming from a bullet train powering at full speed toward a head-on collision.

Japan is kaput.

[Ketou]

I think there's just been a steeper dip in the gradual decline that been happening since the bubble burst.
People leaving are from the top and the bottom mostly. Financial dicks are out as are the factory workers...

[FG Lurker]

I'm going for "Yes" as well, especially from an expat standpoint.

Other areas of Asia have as good or better infrastructure as Japan yet have far lower personal and corporate taxes. They are also a lot friendlier to businesses and don't have governments trying to bankrupt their countries... If I was a multinational looking at locations for my Asian HQ Tokyo wouldn't even make it onto the list of options.

[Amanojakuu]

How many of them people bailing get to their native country to realise that, well, the recession has hit there too?

People tend to find it hard to see past a downward trend and realise these things tend to be cyclic. I doubt any country or currency is 'finished'. If anything, the pound and dollar are the closest to being done.

(p.s. I worked and earned more at Oktoberfest in Yokohama this year than I did as a professional game developer in the UK)

[Mock Cockpit]

Nothing that a modern East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere couldn't fix. You're such a Chicken Little SJ.

[FG Lurker]

Nothing that a modern East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere couldn't fix.

Only problem (from Japan's standpoint) is that this time around it will be China running it, not Japan...

[Samurai_Jerk]

How many of them people bailing get to their native country to realise that, well, the recession has hit there too?

All of them. I'm talking about a pretty broad spectrum of people who either chose to leave or where relocated by their companies to other parts of the world. Some of them were lifers who were happy teaching English and had a pretty good thing going for them for until the middle of last year, others were guys on fat expat packages who were suddenly told to go somewhere else in Asia that actually has potential, and others were local hires in the investment banks that have been permanently moved with their whole department to Sing or HK.

I do agree with Yokohammer that those who stay will probably have higher market value.

[james]

Some of them were lifers who were happy teaching English and had a pretty good thing going for them for until the middle of last year

'happy' is a strong word for me but that's a fairly apt description of my current situation - a precipitous drop-off in enrolment coupled with a declining demographic. fortunately i have a few other things on the go to supplement my income, but i'm looking at a continued downturn over the next while with another sharp dropoff in spring of 2011 if not sooner. suits me fine, i'm tired of this gig anyway and am working on an exit strategy, though don't have much of one put together yet.

[Taka-Okami]

I don't think Japan is finished. If Japan can hold on to its image of a country that produces quality goods (rather like Germany), then I think they will be OK. I always look for stuff 'made in japan' because I know it's gonna be good.

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

Actually, the more that I think about it, the more I realize I was being too hasty in wiping off Japan.
I am actually quite upbeat I am about Japan's future.
Let's not forget; it's a safety country. And it has four seasons....

[Tsuru]

I was at a neworking event last week and had several conversations with different people (all gaijin) who said they think Japan is done. One group of guys worked for a relocation company and said the number of expats and business they've moved out of Japan this year is unbelievable and like nothing they've ever seen. Another guy said that when he flew out of Narita in the Spring there were stacks of gaijin cards that must have been turned in by people who weren't coming back. I've heard the same opinion from several other people since the end of last year and personally know some people who were supposed to be lifers that either have left or are seriously considering it because things have gotten so bad for them. On top of that a lot of foreign financial institutions are scaling back in Japan and beefing up in HK or Singapore.

Of course no matter what the situation or the importance of a country, people can always find a way to make money but is this finally it?

I'm going with "Yes" by the way.

It works both ways. The Mrs. works at a well known Japanese relocation company here in Yurop, and you wouldn't believe the number of Japanese families returning to ol'Nippon who've been here for ages.

Lots of applicances and good LHD diesel cars (BMWs, Mercs) up for grabs as well...

[CrankyBastard]

All will be well with the rising of the moon.
Just batten down the hatches and wait it out.

[GomiGirl]

It all depends on your perspective. Sure the traders, finance people are leaving and if that is the only circle that you move in, then perhaps it would seem like everybody is going.

In my circle of friends, only 1 person is going but that is by choice rather than from job losses.

[Typhoon]

It all depends on your perspective. Sure the traders, finance people are leaving and if that is the only circle that you move in, then perhaps it would seem like everybody is going.

...

Good point.
Having fewer foreign traders and financial types in Japan is not necessarily a negative when one considers the "outstanding" job that they've done elsewhere. ]It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America[/URL]

Although I wonder what difference, if any, is there in that, unlike the US, Japan owes it's debt to itself.

[kino]

Good point.
Having fewer foreign traders and financial types in Japan is not necessarily a negative when one considers the "outstanding" job that they've done elsewhere. ]It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America[/URL]

Although I wonder what difference, if any, is there in that, unlike the US, Japan owes it's debt to itself.

I am not an economist, but in some ways that might make the Yen less secure since other countries don't have a strong interest in artificially propping up the Yen in a recession. The Chinese would hate to see their investment in the dollar bottom out and they are likely going to support policies that do not adversely affect that investment. A tanking dollar would also hurt their export business, America being the dumping ground for much of their manufactured goods.

Of course, this is all just the mad ravings of a complete amateur. Maybe someone with real training in the dismal science can weigh in.

[Catoneinutica]

Pundits and lamestream-media hacks were writing about Japan turning into some sort of uyokocracy, when in fact it's finally turned into what appears to be a slightly more mature democracy. Whether you like Minshuto or not, I think that's a good thing! If Minshuto bungles it, like Obama appears to be doing, it'll be kicked out. What's important is that the dialectic has a chance to work - creative destruction and all that.

It's in Londonistan where fascism really seems to be landing; 20-25% of Londonistanis profess to support the fascist BNP, and Labour can't sneak enough Islamofascists in the door fast enough. Blighty's future: secular fascism or religious fascism. Tough choice!

Let's let Pravda have the final say:

"The British Police State got a rude wake up, this past week. The Bolshevik Labour and their Menshavik Tori allies were expecting to exit the recession with a +.2% GDP but instead had a further recession with a -.4% drop. Surely this must be the fault of those "evil" English Defense Leaguers, for not islamocizing like good little kaffer serfs. Go get them lads, show them that eve if no longer "Great" Britain is not dead either.

"Oops, I guess this will now get me on the famous banned list to the British Police State, not that I have any plans on visiting that Orwellian prison camp."



http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/02-11-2009/110249-debtor-0

[IkemenTommy]

I wouldn't really say finished when Japan still has the second biggest economy and GDP. It may seem finished for the time being when you have the moronic minShitos running the country but that will likely change in the next 6 months or so when they lose office.

[taisaku]

I was at a neworking event last week and had several conversations with different people (all gaijin) who said they think Japan is done. One group of guys worked for a relocation company and said the number of expats and business they've moved out of Japan this year is unbelievable and like nothing they've ever seen. Another guy said that when he flew out of Narita in the Spring there were stacks of gaijin cards that must have been turned in by people who weren't coming back. I've heard the same opinion from several other people since the end of last year and personally know some people who were supposed to be lifers that either have left or are seriously considering it because things have gotten so bad for them. On top of that a lot of foreign financial institutions are scaling back in Japan and beefing up in HK or Singapore.

Of course no matter what the situation or the importance of a country, people can always find a way to make money but is this finally it?

I'm going with "Yes" by the way.

Why do you think that Japan is finished when all the gaijin leave? Does it depend on gaijin whether Japan is finished or not? That suggestion sounds a bit arrogant to me.

[Yokohammer]

Why do you think that Japan is finished when all the gaijin leave? Does it depend on gaijin whether Japan is finished or not? That suggestion sounds a bit arrogant to me.

Unless, of course, the entire thread has been about whether Japan is "finished" from a gaijin-in-Japan perspective.

[Samurai_Jerk]

Unless, of course, the entire thread has been about whether Japan is "finished" from a gaijin-in-Japan perspective.

Thank you.

[samuraiwig]

I think there are 2 answers here.

I voted "yes", because for mass market westerners Japan is done unless/until it figures out how to seriously engage in reciprocal global business and politics. That ain't going to happen any time soon, which is why so many people are shipping out to other places in Asia and why Japan still lags so badly in FDI and so on. The knock-on social effects of fumbling the economy might also make Japan less attractive for some people.

But, as has been said, there will be more opportunities for certain gaijin. This country has always been good at offering interesting niches to people with the right combination of skills/staying power/connections/luck.

[rooboy]

English teachers aren't done - not gaijin like me anyway who don't
own an English school but make a fair living outta teaching. The point here is there are still more opportunities in Japan for Eng. teaching if you're here, got some real experience under your belt etc.

Main reason - Japan is fucking great with its visa system. For people who have an island/xenophobic history and mentality the freedom they give us to move on in our jobs, get our visa renewed without a sponsor if weve got the work history and are paying our taxes is fucking marvellous. Thats why teaching English in Japan is still a sweet gig - no indentured servitude.

Unlike the poor bastards in Korea who are more or less in indentured servitude, owned by their fucking employer who blacklists them at will if he/she feels like it often over trivial bullshit. Nasty pieces of work.

Gaijin in that godawful, soul-less, stinking, dirty, backwards nasty, culture-less, hper annoying, whining place
can't change their jobs without all sorts of shit going around, can't teach privates without being arrested (no joke) if they're not married to a k national (who'd be so fucking desperate?), and can't do so many things.

Japan is good to us.

[rooboy]

from offering his girlfriend's interpretation skills to the Yakuzas:rolleyes:

Tony Alexander/aka McAlpine/aka the fuck who posted on here a while ago to gloat over the death of a gaijin in Tokyo says on his soul of japan blogspot in a post about 'frugal living' or some shit, that he was 'resourceful.

He was in Roppongi and a yakuza came up to him and asked him for the cheap braclet he was wering. Tony baby quoted him 100 American bucks for a cheap piece of shit and the yak paid, the yak gave him his business card and then Tony offered an interpreting service for big yen.

So the phone never stopped ringing with all the yaks and their friends asking for his wife's interpreting services:rolleyes: So now they're making megayen. I spose we can do the same. Anyway - this story shows why it's still good in Japan for English teaching gaijin when a loser like Tony Alexander is still here even if he woke up after he blogged that garbage.

[BO-SENSEI]

English teachers aren't done - not gaijin like me anyway who don't
own an English school but make a fair living outta teaching. The point here is there are still more opportunities in Japan for Eng. teaching if you're here, got some real experience under your belt etc.

Lucky you, in the mean time, many prefectures are slashing ALT teaching positions even further stretching us way too thin, given us way too much stuff to do, which in turn makes the JTEs expect us to do nothing, which from some of my friends makes them happy but I actually like to do work to get paid. This whole situation only makes me want to get a real job faster, hopefully by the time I finish my stint in JET the economy will be back on its feet and me with my experience can actually land a decent job.

[rooboy]

I'm not gloating mate,sorry to hear about your situation.

I do a number of part time gigs which give me free time when I need it, mean I don't have to do shit that I don't like (I'd hate to be a fucking alt in a J school) and have a good chunk of my days in the week free in the morning to sleep in etc.

Being an ALT sucks bigtime as far as Im conenred. I'd never want to work in a fucking school as in ed system. Take the leap, go for the part time gigs, string em together and you'll make enough.

I started out a full (fool) time teacher at a shitty chain, quit and then did the gigs biz and got my speicalist in humanities renewed by myself. I earn 20,000 more each month than what I got when I was full time, give it a go.

[james]

in the mean time, many prefectures are slashing ALT teaching positions even further

good and about time! no offence to you or anyone here on jet - for the most part, the people i've met are nice and i've made some friends - but i'm tired of seeing my taxes wasted on this bullshit. scrapping the whole fucking progam would be a good start.

i don't know how it is in other prefectures, or for that matter, even other cities, but i'm tired of paying for ALTs to sit around at the town office / board of education doing facebook or going to an elementary school to play frickin dodge-ball.

[Samurai_Jerk]

good and about time! no offence to you or anyone here on jet - for the most part, the people i've met are nice and i've made some friends - but i'm tired of seeing my taxes wasted on this bullshit. scrapping the whole fucking progam would be a good start.

i don't know how it is in other prefectures, or for that matter, even other cities, but i'm tired of paying for ALTs to sit around at the town office / board of education doing facebook or going to an elementary school to play frickin dodge-ball.

Although I agree with you that the JET Program isn't the best use of resources, the money used is peanuts compared to all the other shit our tax yen are wasted on.

[james]

Although I agree with you that the JET Program isn't the best use of resources, the money used is peanuts compared to all the other shit our tax yen are wasted on.

yeah, don't even get me started on that ]pyramid[/I] which is now a black and dingy eyesore of unmaintained crap. this was at a time when internet infrastructure was sorely lacking and the largest elementary school (where my son is in a class of 35 despite there being nearly empty schools nearby) was falling apart.

were it up to me, i'd implement a hiring freeze, amalgamate these schools and if they really want proper english education (yeah, right), scrap all this ALT bullshit and hire a 'real' teacher to do it right from grades 1 through 6...

/end rant