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  • fuckedgaijin ‹ General ‹ F*cked News

Japanese Women Prefer 3-Year Maturity Men

Odd news from Japan and all things Japanese around the world.
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Japanese Women Prefer 3-Year Maturity Men

Postby Mulboyne » Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:16 am

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Postby Tsuru » Thu Jun 10, 2010 5:39 am

Say what?
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Postby Ketou » Thu Jun 10, 2010 11:37 am

Investing in bonds = diligent with money.....:D
Some nice 30 or 40 year bonds will just be the ticket to financial success.
One is tempted to define man as a rational animal who always loses his temper when he is called upon to act in accordance with the dictates of reason. - Oscar Wilde
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Postby Greji » Thu Jun 10, 2010 11:43 am

Mulboyne wrote:a fixed-rate, three-year note


I can understand that. I made a fixed rate three hour note with a drink hustler in Shibuya last night. She seemed overjoyed with the investment.....
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Postby hairygateau » Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:09 pm

has anybody found an online copy of ads in question?
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Postby Mulboyne » Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:42 pm

hairygateau wrote:has anybody found an online copy of ads in question?


Slightly photoshopped version

Image
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Postby omae mona » Fri Jun 11, 2010 4:43 pm

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Postby IparryU » Fri Jun 11, 2010 5:46 pm

Ya, J-chicks dig 40yo salary men who invest into some crappy Japanese Gov. bonds (horrible choice) and take out a mortgage that they will refinance and hand off to their kids. They also won't get all of their pension because of the flipped population and when the bond matures, they will be lucky to see 3% growth on that.

Those girls wont get no LV bags from them guys... probably just a PR hoax
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Postby Takechanpoo » Fri Jun 11, 2010 6:13 pm

In spite of the fact that Japanese bond is crap, if EU were collapsed, world people would start buying Japanese bond. And the possibility is being amplified day by day.
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Postby hairygateau » Fri Jun 11, 2010 7:22 pm

The J-Govt starting to panic about the demographic and sell directly to the punters rather than indirectly via the J-Banks isn't really gonna solve anything. All the old people keep on dieing...
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Postby FG Lurker » Fri Jun 11, 2010 7:54 pm

hairygateau wrote:The J-Govt starting to panic about the demographic and sell directly to the punters rather than indirectly via the J-Banks isn't really gonna solve anything. All the old people keep on dieing...

Old people dieing is the solution to the debt problem, not adding to it.

The more old fuckers that croak (and the faster they do it) the less money that goes out in pensions. Further, with 50% death taxes, the more people who die the faster the debt problem in Japan gets fixed. Morbid but true.
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Postby hairygateau » Fri Jun 11, 2010 8:09 pm

Interesting point, but the old geezers are generally those with the savings, and thus indirectly keeping japan's funding costs down (Japanese banks investing in jgb's). If the outstanding deficit wasn't bad enough, it looks like the new administration wants to maintain high public borrowing in the future. Fewer savers means fewer buyers of jgb's in the future. Future pension liabilities are a worry, but not as much as being able to rollover the existing debt right now. I'd love to believe that japan can get out of it's debt trap, but recently it all looks like a horrible Keynesian nightmare.
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Postby FG Lurker » Fri Jun 11, 2010 8:41 pm

hairygateau wrote:Interesting point, but the old geezers are generally those with the savings, and thus indirectly keeping japan's funding costs down (Japanese banks investing in jgb's).

Yes, exactly.

There are two things you have to keep in mind. About 50% of Japan's debt is held by the government itself. The rest is mostly held domestically, bought by banks and insurance companies who use public savings to buy the debt. Most of those savings belong to the older generation -- not too many 20s and 30s people with considerable savings, or even 40s really. So that leads to the second thing you have to keep in mind:

Let's take 80yo Taro Suzuki and say he owns a house and land worth 20mil yen. On top of this he has about 15mil yen in the bank or insurance, most of which has probably been used by the bank/insurance cos to buy jgbs. Old Taro falls down a flight of stairs and kicks the bucket. Poor guy.

His heirs sell his land/house for 20mil, and then withdraw the 15mil from the bank. When they withdraw that 15mil yen the bank/insurance companies sell the jgbs that it was used to buy. Next though comes the important part: 50% death tax. 35mil yen total inheritance means the government gets 17.5mil yen of old Taro's horde. They had to put up 15mil when the jgbs were sold but they actually get back 17.5mil. Not only have they cleared that 15mil of debt but they profited by another 2.5mil. (Japanese have a saying that wealth only lasts 3 generations. Death taxes are a big part of why it's true.)

This is why I say all the old fuckers dieing off is the solution to the national debt problem. The massive reductions in pension payouts solves the deficit problem to a large degree too. (Pension payments should also be cut in half, it is clear the government can't afford to pay what has been promised, just like they can't afford the child allowance.)

hairygateau wrote:If the outstanding deficit wasn't bad enough, it looks like the new administration wants to maintain high public borrowing in the future.

I want Japan to stop spending like drunken sailors but the government knows that as long as the debt is domestic and as long as death taxes are 50% they are borrowing against future guaranteed tax revenue.
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Postby hairygateau » Sat Jun 12, 2010 6:00 pm

The example above is good, but it assumes that old Taro exists purely on his state pension as he gets older and older. I think it's more likely that he spends his savings over time on nursing, food, gifts to the kids etc, which will erode his bank balance.

The household savings rates here have plummeted from around 11% to 3% in the past 10 years, and we all know the inverted pyramid demographic just around the corner where old folks will outnumber younger folks. So on balance, J-Bank's deposit bases get smaller as more people are taking money out to fund their retirement than put money in for savings. This is a huge simplification of course, but captures the general gist of it.

So yes, the govt does get 50% of whatever is leftover in the bank, but thats going to be a smaller overall number than what the Govt. borrowed in the past (no inflation here unfortuantely).

The old codgers aren't stupid about the inheritance tax either, hence the introduction of a daily maximum withdrawl amount at ATM a few years ago, and the 10% premium to spot that retail gold dealers (e.g. Tanaka Ginza) trade at as locals look for ways to hide assets from the taxman. Last time I was at Tanaka, the line was 80% old geezers!
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Postby FG Lurker » Sat Jun 12, 2010 6:28 pm

hairygateau wrote:The example above is good, but it assumes that old Taro exists purely on his state pension as he gets older and older. I think it's more likely that he spends his savings over time on nursing, food, gifts to the kids etc, which will erode his bank balance.

Total savings in Japan is about US$14 trillion. Total debt held by the public in JGBs is around US$5 trillion. I'm sure the old fuckers will be spending some of their savings but there will still be plenty (and plenty of fixed assets such as real estate) to pay off a very sizable amount of the debt without the government having to actually do anything about it.

hairygateau wrote:The old codgers aren't stupid about the inheritance tax either, hence the introduction of a daily maximum withdrawl amount at ATM a few years ago
Not true. The standard limit was 3mil yen/day before and it was dropped to 500,000/day due to fraud problems. Anyone can walk into their bank and raise their limit back up to 3mil if they want, maybe higher. My main account is much higher than the standard 500,000/day.

hairygateau wrote:and the 10% premium to spot that retail gold dealers (e.g. Tanaka Ginza) trade at as locals look for ways to hide assets from the taxman. Last time I was at Tanaka, the line was 80% old geezers!
I have no doubt that people will stash some money in gold or into other easily transferred gifts. Gift taxes are also very high (similar to death taxes) for this reason. You can get away with a gift here or there but there are limits to how much you can do unless the receiver is going to stash the gift under their futon. (ie Giving a few hundred thousand yen worth of gold or cash is doable, a few million yen worth is probably doable, 10s of millions of yen is going to create problems and raise flags.)

Death taxes are going to be a massive boon to the J-gov't for the next 50 years.
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Postby Mulboyne » Mon Jun 14, 2010 1:27 pm

Mulboyne wrote:Slightly photoshopped version

Image


Some idiots think that's the real ad.
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Postby BigInJapan » Tue Jun 15, 2010 10:04 am

FG Lurker wrote:Next though comes the important part: 50% death tax.

I was not aware that inheritance tax was so high in Japan (it's non existent in Canada for property), and it appears that 50% is the maximum, not the default.

INHERITANCE TAX (in Japan)
TAX BASE, JPY (US$) TAX RATE
Up to 10,000,000 (US$109,493) 10%
10,000,000 –]Global Property Guide[/URL]
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Postby hairygateau » Tue Jun 15, 2010 10:06 pm

FG Lurker wrote:Total savings in Japan is about US$14 trillion. Total debt held by the public in JGBs is around US$5 trillion. I'm sure the old fuckers will be spending some of their savings but there will still be plenty (and plenty of fixed assets such as real estate) to pay off a very sizable amount of the debt without the government having to actually do anything about it.


No - I don't think I made my point properly. The Banks and the Post office hold around 45% of the JGB market currently, and this is largely from depositors money. As Taro and his ilk spent their savings, this leads to reduced demand for JGBs which normally would lead to higher interest rates. The Rinban operations were inpart to fill that gap, and to artificially keep the interest rate low. The 5% held by households presently is too low to really matter, and I think these adverts are designed to help increase that.


FG Lurker wrote:Death taxes are going to be a massive boon to the J-gov't for the next 50 years.


I'm sure they have their fingers crossed!. Ultimately the demographic is going to hit asset prices - all those old codgers homes being sold by their kids has to cause property prices to come down over time. I'm not seeing strong demand for countryside property right now. So this is gonna mean that Taro's total assets are smaller, meaning that ultimately the total number that the taxman gets 50% of is smaller. Which coming back to the original comment, is the problem.
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