Futenma "relocation" plan a ruse

[Mike Oxlong]

[Doctor Stop]

While it is widely believed that this facility is being built as a substitute for the dangerous Marine airbase in a crowded residential area of Ginowan City...

Didn't it only become dangerous once the Okinawans decided to make the farmland surrounding the base into a crowded residential area?

[Mike Oxlong]

Where should they have built to accomodate a growing post-war population and new residents from mainland Japan after reversion?

[Doctor Stop]

Mike, do you have a link to go along with that map? I think it exaggerates base area somewhat.

My impression was that there was little migration to mainland Okinawa, other than a few retirees. I've only really heard of younger people leaving to go to mainland Japan.

[Mike Oxlong]

The map is from the Vietnam War era, not later than 1973. That's roughly midway between the American occupation of Okinawa and now. Looking at a map of the present base situation wouldn't do much to show the limitations to urban development while the city was growing, or the pressures to grow in certain areas/directions. It didn't magically spring up overnight around Futenma just recently.

There is currently also a retirement/construction boom with condos and old folks villages being build to accommodate those trying to make Okinawa the Florida of Japan. I did read somewhere online that since 1998 that nearly 30,000 people a year from mainland Japan move to Okinawa...

[Greji]

There is currently also a retirement/construction boom with condos and old folks villages being build to accommodate those trying to make Okinawa the Florida of Japan. I did read somewhere online that since 1998 that nearly 30,000 people a year from mainland Japan move to Okinawa...

That's interesting Mike. I wonder what the status of that is now? From what I've read recently a lot of so-called projects (meaning they may never have This is not to mean they don't exist, but the only major project I've heard of recently that is the least bit international and is interesting is a Saudi project (quasi-joint venture) for long term gas storage facilities. Nobody now appears to want to go to Okinawa for longer than a couple days vacation in the off-typhoon season, let alone invest in the prefecture regardless what the promotions are saying.

[Mike Oxlong]

Not sure of the current status, but just to be clear, we are talking domestic movement, not international. On some of the ritou, the population has exceeded half mainlander (this is hearsay from those on Okinawa hontou). At least some of the condos going to wealthy mainlanders and retirees were probably projects developed at the end of the bubble, or the early days of the recession Japan is in now. Once these things get started, it seems they just don't die, no matter current conditions. Hell, maybe the USFJ are taking a page from the Japanese playbook, and doing the same with base construction!

[Doctor Stop]

I did read somewhere online that since 1998 that nearly 30,000 people a year from mainland Japan move to Okinawa...

That's probably what they hope for.

This data is from 2006, and it's assembled by Okinawa Denroku:

http://www.okiden.co.jp/shared/pdf/ir/ar/ar2006/oepc_ar06_06.pdf

From 2001 to 2006, and in the projections to 2015, there's a population growth of less than an average of 8,000 a year. I'd be curious to see the data for 2007 to 2010 but not curious enough to look around for it. The same with finding out whether how much of the population increase is because of internal migration or births. I'd guess births.

The base issue is extremely complex and I just don't see it being solved. There aren't political leaders who are willing and capable to change the situation either in Okinawa or in mainland Japan.

I don't expect that those rich retiree villas will be built near any bases if they're built at all.

[Greji]

Not sure of the current status, but just to be clear, we are talking domestic movement, not international.

Sorry, that's what I meant as well, but now that look back at my post I see I had erased the domestic reference. But, what I was intending to say was essentially the same thing. There have been a lot of talk about Okinawa kaihatsu, but little, to no action. I have without any exacting evidence, written a lot of this hype off on the anti-base movement. This is because during the big anti-base movements, the anti-side promotes major announcements about how the US facilities are hampering growth and development of the entire area.

[Mike Oxlong]

[SIZE="4"]Chinese Claims to Okinawa Gain Support Among Historians[/SIZE]

There are increasing voices among Chinese historians claiming territorial rights over Okinawa, the Japanese island where the U.S. has a massive military base.

Japan's Mainichi Shimbun on Wednesday said some Chinese historians argue that Okinawa, when it was the Ryukyu Kingdom, flourished thanks to trade with China and was essentially a part of it.

In a conference in Beijing in December last year, some insisted that the annexation of the Ryukyu Islands by the Meiji government in 1879 and the U.S.' return of Okinawa to Japan in 1972 was invalid under international law.

The reason this view is gaining support, according to the Mainichi Shimbun, is because China believes it appeals to the island's people at a time when complaints of the continuing U.S. presence there are growing.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/08/19/2010081901025.html

[Iraira]

[SIZE="4"]Chinese Claims to Okinawa Gain Support Among Historians[/SIZE]

There are increasing voices among Chinese historians claiming territorial rights over Okinawa, the Japanese island where the U.S. has a massive military base.

Japan's Mainichi Shimbun on Wednesday said some Chinese historians argue that Okinawa, when it was the Ryukyu Kingdom, flourished thanks to trade with China and was essentially a part of it.

In a conference in Beijing in December last year, some insisted that the annexation of the Ryukyu Islands by the Meiji government in 1879 and the U.S.' return of Okinawa to Japan in 1972 was invalid under international law.

The reason this view is gaining support, according to the Mainichi Shimbun, is because China believes it appeals to the island's people at a time when complaints of the continuing U.S. presence there are growing.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/08/19/2010081901025.html

So, essentially, the Chinese are afraid that Japan will eventually kick out the US military presence, and Japan will have to remilitarize which is something that clearly scares the sweet & sour pork out of the Chinese. In their eyes, it's better to have the US overseeing Japan's defense, than having the Japanese do it themselves. Hence, the clamor that "Okinawa should be ours" to scare the Japanese/Okinawans into letting the US stay.

[wuchan]

[Mike Oxlong]

From what little I know of Ryukyuan history, opinion was divided in the kingdom during the time Japan was attempting to annex the islands. There were ardent supporters of joining the Japanese Empire, and those who wished to remain semi-independent as a vassal state in connection with China. IIRC some Ryukyu citizens went to China to petition for help against the Japanese takeover, but China was too weak after defeat in the Opium Wars to be of much assistance, even if they sympathized with the kingdom's plight.

[Kuang_Grade]

So, essentially, the Chinese are afraid that Japan will eventually kick out the US military presence, and Japan will have to remilitarize which is something that clearly scares the sweet & sour pork out of the Chinese. In their eyes, it's better to have the US overseeing Japan's defense, than having the Japanese do it themselves. Hence, the clamor that "Okinawa should be ours" to scare the Japanese/Okinawans into letting the US stay.

I think it is more 'a enemy of my enemy is my friend' sort of thing, although I don't think the Chinese brass are all that worried about Japan rearming per se (nor does Japan really have the cash for it), since that would provide more than enough diplomatic cover and popular sentiment to further expand the modernization of Chinese forces. Nor would the loss of bases in Okinawa mean the end of the US/J alliance...but that said, I'm sure the Chinese brass would be much happier if US forces were forced to Guam from Okinawa, given Okinawa's much closer presence to Taiwan (400 miles from Okinawa vs 1600 miles from Guam). It would be much easier for China to seize Taiwan if the pesky Americans don't arrive from Okinawa within a couple hours of the attack.

[IparryU]

I think it is more 'a enemy of my enemy is my friend' sort of thing, although I don't think the Chinese brass are all that worried about Japan rearming per se (nor does Japan really have the cash for it), since that would provide more than enough diplomatic cover and popular sentiment to further expand the modernization of Chinese forces. Nor would the loss of bases in Okinawa mean the end of the US/J alliance...but that said, I'm sure the Chinese brass would be much happier if US forces were forced to Guam from Okinawa, given Okinawa's much closer presence to Taiwan (400 miles from Okinawa vs 1600 miles from Guam). It would be much easier for China to seize Taiwan if the pesky Americans don't arrive from Okinawa within a couple hours of the attack.

I would say that in general, moving them outside of Japan would be a bad decision. but on that island, i dunno whats there (nothing?), but keeping them inland has its pros. Prolly why Jap. Gov. doesn't relocate them.

1. Revenue created from the US soldiers boozing, dining, dating, spending, etc.
2. Jobs for the Japanese nationals that were created from #1
3. #1
4. #2

It would be better to have the US here rather than China moving closer to them or NK trying to move in.

Just my opinion, but I don't know if #1 or #2 are solid or not.

[Iraira]

Maybe the whole Okinawa is China thing was sponsored by the Japan Tourist Board, in order to get a lot of Chinese to travel to Okinawa and spend mo-nay. Fuck, I love conspiracies.

[Christoff]

us navy base in mainland china, that is a good one.