What's up with the value of the YEN?

[Cyka UchuuJin]

I believe it is pretty much behaving like a bubble at this point. Sooner or later it will pop and fall. The question is how much longer will it take.

it's been just sitting there at 81.85 for the last few hours. with the dow just now hitting over 11000, i can see a climb back up into at least the mid-82s soon. (i hope!)

[nottu]

[Cyka UchuuJin]

Timmy G still says 'No' for now.

say no bubble bursting or no to the mid 82s today.

link please!

[Cyka UchuuJin]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-08/dollar-to-end-drop-at-81-yen-rally-to-84-on-ichimoku-technical-analysis.html

at 82.04 now. maybe ichimoku is off on this 81.29 prediction?

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

Jeezuz, fuck the value of the yen...I just want some yen, period, no matter how strong or weak it is.
Anybody know of anywhere offering high-paid jobs for dumb shits who can't/don't want to work properly (that probably means a CEO post)? (Actually, come to think of it, there might possibly be an opening at Warner Music Japan now....)

[Ketou]

The race to the bottom continues as we prepare to print ourselves out of debt.
The American dollar is preparing to go down the toilet as CNN and Bloomberg sing lullabies to the sheeple.
And once the depression really starts all we will need is a war to take our minds off it. Not that there is any signs of aggression from/toward China and Iran....

[nottu]

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

If I had a CEO position open I'd hire SDH immediately - he'd be a blast at the Board meetings.

Ah, nottu, you've captured my heart...
And taught me something, too...I had always thought they were called Bored Meetings until I read your post....

[Cyka UchuuJin]

So, where's it going to land today? I think it's rebound day. at least to 82.5

FGL, what's your thought?

[Fullback]

Here is some reading to understand how things really work and the macroeconomics affecting exchange rate: http://michael-hudson.com/2010/09/america%E2%80%99s-china-bashing-a-compendium-of-junk-economics/

[canman]

Looks like 81 or 80 if you asked me. And 79 by the end of the week. The US and Little Tim are in no hurry for an appreciation of the dollar. they are sounding more and more like Japan in its lost decade, which is now stretching into almost 20 years.

[Cyka UchuuJin]

Looks like 81 or 80 if you asked me. And 79 by the end of the week. The US and Little Tim are in no hurry for an appreciation of the dollar. they are sounding more and more like Japan in its lost decade, which is now stretching into almost 20 years.

i think you're right. friday they were saying that it would hit low of lows at 81.29, and head for a quick rebound north, but it really does look like it's going to slip south of 80. just in time for my trip to the rice field regions. argh.

[Ketou]

Looks like 81 or 80 if you asked me. And 79 by the end of the week. The US and Little Tim are in no hurry for an appreciation of the dollar. they are sounding more and more like Japan in its lost decade, which is now stretching into almost 20 years.

The have an active policy of depreciation. Even the Fed has said it wants to create inflation.

[2triky]

Dollar drops to 15-year yen low

BBC News Business

11 October 2010 Last updated at 15:58 ET

The US dollar has hit a fresh 15-year low against the yen after meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and G7 finance ministers produced little to ease world currency tensions.

The dollar weakened against a basket of currencies and fell as low as 81.37 yen, before recovering to 82.07.

Friday's weaker-than-expected US jobs data also raised expectations of more quantitative easing in the US.

The record low for the dollar is 79.75 yen, reached in April 1995.

Last month, the Japanese central bank stepped in to sell yen and buy dollars, in an attempt to weaken the value of the yen against the dollar.

A strong yen makes Japanese exports more expensive, and reduces profits when earnings are repatriated.

Although Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday on Monday, the dollar's slide put markets on alert for further potential intervention by the Bank of Japan.

The IMF's member countries failed to agree on a concrete plan to tackle global imbalances at multilateral meetings over the weekend.

Japan escaped any overt criticism of its yen-selling policy, despite come commentators saying it was weakening its currency to gain an advantage in export markets.

And the dispute between the US and China over currency policy appears no closer to a resolution.

The US has accused China of keeping the yuan artificially low to benefit Chinese exports, and over the weekend US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pressed Beijing again to let the value of the yuan rise against other currencies.

But Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of China's central bank, while acknowledging that China must raise the value of its currency, said it would like to use "more gradual ways" to do so.

"In China, a lot of people believe in Chinese doctors. In western countries, they believe in western-trained doctors," he said.

Mr Zhou said the currency debate was like a contest between "pills that solve your problem overnight" and Chinese-style treatments of "10 herbs put together... that solve the problem not overnight, but maybe in one month or two months".

[Yokohammer]

Mr Zhou said the currency debate was like a contest between "pills that solve your problem overnight" and Chinese-style treatments of "10 herbs put together... that solve the problem not overnight, but maybe in one month or two months".

Or maybe never.
There's also the possibility that the patient will die before the medicine takes effect.

[Doctor Stop]

Or, considering that it's the governor of China's central bank talking, that there's melamine mixed in with the ten herbs and spices.

[2triky]

Or maybe never.
There's also the possibility that the patient will die before the medicine takes effect.

Indeed. His lame attempt at sophistry wasn't convincing anybody.

[nottu]

[nottu]

[nottu]

[nottu]

[Catoneinutica]

I'd put Japan and the US at the top of the list of big-GDP countries most likely to devalue their currencies. Hence, I badgered Mrs. Catone to sell her yen and USD balances in favor of Swiss Francs and Aussie dollars (I like Euros, but I'm hearing all sorts of predictions of the Euro's demise. For utter stability, you can't best the Swiss Franc. Hope I'm right...

[IkemenTommy]

I'd put Japan and the US at the top of the list of big-GDP countries most likely to devalue their currencies. Hence, I badgered Mrs. Catone to sell her yen and USD balances in favor of Swiss Francs and Aussie dollars (I like Euros, but I'm hearing all sorts of predictions of the Euro's demise. For utter stability, you can't best the Swiss Franc. Hope I'm right...

gold is always another good choice

[Catoneinutica]

gold is always another good choice

Yes, gold. Did a bit of research on it. At a practical level, you can buy one-kg tablets of it at Ginza Tanaka for no commission or "handling fee." At 500 g, the rate goes up to something like 250,000. Still not bad.

Since India apparently accounts for about 25% of total gold demand, and since India seems to be on the ascent, the demand-side argument for owning gold seems solid. However, I concluded that it's the supply side that's troubling, and that if you hold gold for more than the near turn (a couple of years), you're gambling against progress in technology - not usually a good idea. As it is, it appears gold can be extracted for about 500 USD/oz, and the main supply bottleneck now is the time required to reopen old mines and find new deposits. Bring in a new process, something, say, akin to oil-shale extraction, and production costs could fall a great deal. That prospect puts me off gold as a Safe Haven.

[Cyka UchuuJin]

Yes, gold. Did a bit of research on it. At a practical level, you can buy one-kg tablets of it at Ginza Tanaka for no commission or "handling fee." At 500 g, the rate goes up to something like 250,000. Still not bad.

Since India apparently accounts for about 25% of total gold demand, and since India seems to be on the ascent, the demand-side argument for owning gold seems solid. However, I concluded that it's the supply side that's troubling, and that if you hold gold for more than the near turn (a couple of years), you're gambling against progress in technology - not usually a good idea. As it is, it appears gold can be extracted for about 500 USD/oz, and the main supply bottleneck now is the time required to reopen old mines and find new deposits. Bring in a new process, something, say, akin to oil-shale extraction, and production costs could fall a great deal. That prospect puts me off gold as a Safe Haven.

[FG Lurker]

Bring in a new process, something, say, akin to oil-shale extraction, and production costs could fall a great deal. That prospect puts me off gold as a Safe Haven.

Yup, like an efficient way to extract gold from sea water... That would destroy the gold market in a very big hurry. Automated technology to conduct undersea mining would also destroy the value of gold.

Personally I think Gold is in the middle of a massive bubble that will collapse rather spectacularly. IMO this article sums it up pretty well.

[Ketou]

The gold price is going up in relation to a weakening currency.
I would invest in gold as a method of wealth retention rather than a form of investment. And with the US dollar edging over a cliff people are seeing gold as a way to hold onto the wealth that would otherwise be destroyed in a high inflation debt reduction plan. I cannot see how with continued devaluation of the US dollar (quantitative easing) that the price will drop.

[AlbertSiegel]

[nottu]

[maraboutslim]

All right, I don't get this shit at all. The USA announces they'll dump $600bil into the market and the dollar actually goes up to like 82.5 yen? WTF?

Is this because people thought it was going to be more like $1tril and had built that in to their valuation already and so it has to come back up since it'll only be $600 billion?