Japan as Number 9

[Taro Toporific]

[AML]

Japan peaked in the 80s, its all down hill from there!

[wuchan]

lol

China will self destruct due to inequality issues long before it overtakes the US.

[BigInJapan]

China will self destruct due to inequality issues long before it overtakes the US.

A Chinese version of Before --> After

[McTojo]

lol
China will self destruct due to inequality issues long before it overtakes the US.

China will implode. Capitalism will prevail without fail.

[matsuki]

lol

China will self destruct due to inequality issues long before it overtakes the US.

Or just crumble and fall apart due to shitty QC...like nearly everything made in China.

[ChargerCarl]

It'll be interesting to see how rising energy prices impede their growth. Their large populations may come back to bite them as they struggle to improve overall quality of life.

[IkemenTommy]

Hard to believe when the majority of the country still lives backwards in time with no water or electricity.

[ChargerCarl]

Indeed

And even if they do pass the U.S. in GDP theres no way they'll ever catch up the U.S.' standard of living, which in the end is whats important.

I mean, all the economic growth means nothing if half your population lives in squalor

[FG Lurker]

China will self destruct due to inequality issues long before it overtakes the US.

Inequality and raw economics. Massive bubble with massive bad loans = massive implosion on the horizon. It's easy to see it coming but nearly impossible to predict the timing. Bubbles tend to go on for longer than expected so even though I feel it will be ~5 years from now it could easily be closer to 10...

[Samurai_Jerk]

Inequality and raw economics. Massive bubble with massive bad loans = massive implosion on the horizon. It's easy to see it coming but nearly impossible to predict the timing. Bubbles tend to go on for longer than expected so even though I feel it will be ~5 years from now it could easily be closer to 10...

One also has to ask what it means to be one of the largest economies when your per capital income is only about four thousand bucks.

[6810]

Hard to believe when the majority of the country still lives backwards in time with no water or electricity.

Sure, but have you seen the US recently? To be poor in the US ain't no great shakes either...

And anyway, even if only half of the Chinese are middle class - that's still a shit ton of people. Twice the number of the US.

Man, I think I'm becoming the Chinese Take!:lol:

[IkemenTommy]

And anyway, even if only half of the Chinese are middle class - that's still a shit ton of people. Twice the number of the US.

Where did you come up with that info?

[Samurai_Jerk]

Where did you come up with that info?

Pretty sure it was pulled out of someone's ass.

[Marked Trail]

[color="DimGray"]The Wall Street Journal...[/color]
...While Japan has a high per-capita income, an increasing number of jobs -- one-third of the workforce now -- are for non-permanent, part-time or contract workers: with less income and security come less spending. Moreover, by a broad definition -- when pay is equal to half or less of median income -- poverty is on the rise in Japan and among the worst in the industrialized world, the OECD says....

via Japan On The Cheap - WSJ.com

[Mulboyne]

Eamonn Fingleton is pushing his "Myth of Japan's Lost Decades" thesis again. He names his desired debating partners here.

I'm not entirely sure why he thinks a debate is the best forum to air this discussion, aside from credibility it would confer on himself, but his selection of opponents betrays how much he is living in the past. Most of the individuals named made their chief criticisms of Japan nearly 10 years ago or more. Some now have a far more nuanced views. You'd think he might want to take on some recent critics, like Kyle Bass, who have been publicly declaring Japan bust within the last few weeks.

Fingleton is a decent bloke but tends to set up too many straw men for my liking. The strengths he identifies are widely recognized rather than hidden from view as he likes to suggest.

[Thug4Life]

And anyway, even if only half of the Chinese are middle class - that's still a shit ton of people. Twice the number of the US.

What? Not even close. I can assure you of that. I live in a really nice area but outside of this fake paradise, one can see the real China very quickly. And despite its recent economic success, China already has a very high rate of underemployment with several more millions of Chinese college students graduating in June 2011. And, like present-day Japan, the USA and other countries, each year China graduates another major surplus of new workers most of which cannot cannot find gainful employment.

Have you heard of the 'Jasmine Revolution'. If not, then Google it. Also, you should watch this recent video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3LP-CFSb0c

[Jack]

Sure, but have you seen the US recently? To be poor in the US ain't no great shakes either...

And anyway, even if only half of the Chinese are middle class - that's still a shit ton of people. Twice the number of the US.

Man, I think I'm becoming the Chinese Take!:lol:

I don't think half of the Chinese would be considered middle class. Try 2% to 5% of the population.

[ChargerCarl]

Beware of the chinese property bubble. It's gotten so bad that the chinese have basically stopped publishing the numbers (instead of just fudging them like they normally do)

China's GDP figures as they are generally man-made and not to be trusted. Vice Premier Li Keqiang admitted this to a U.S. ambassador which got released via wiki leaks.

[matsuki]

I don't think half of the Chinese would be considered middle class. Try 2% to 5% of the population.

Chinese middle class in the US still steal napkins and condiments from restaurants...I can only imagine what goes on in China

[6810]

I don't think half of the Chinese would be considered middle class. Try 2% to 5% of the population.

2% of 1.2 billion = 24,000,000 (more than the population of Australia)

5% of 1.2 billion = 60,000,000 (entire population of the UK)

not insignificant - and growing.

[FG Lurker]

China's GDP figures as they are generally man-made and not to be trusted.

Yup. I wrote somewhere before that after China implodes looking back at their financial fictions will make the old Soviet Politburo's financial fictions look small scale indeed.

[Jack]

2% of 1.2 billion = 24,000,000 (more than the population of Australia)

5% of 1.2 billion = 60,000,000 (entire population of the UK)

not insignificant - and growing.

We can all do the math. So thanks for pointing out the obvious.

One thing you forget however, if all those people were in the same city then it would be a very attractive market. But spread them out throughout the country, it becomes a different matter.

We are talking middle class here, right? Not upper class.

There is no money to be made in China for most companies, particularly those targeting consumers. B2B maybe, but B2C I don't think so.