Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster!!!

[L S]

Satellite imagery from the aftermath:

http://goo.gl/yi3ns

Kirin beer factory smashed...

[ChargerCarl]

See? I told you so on page 100.

You can throw all the red snot you want (like you've done), but it doesn't change the fact that I spent more time in the power industry than some of you have been alive.

This site should change its name to fuckedintheheadgaijin.com. Some of you are truly ignorant.

yeah were all so dumb for not having an extensive knowledge of japans nuclear infrastructure

[Tsuru]

See? I told you so on page 100.

You can throw all the red snot you want (like you've done), but it doesn't change the fact that I spent more time in the power industry than some of you have been alive.

This site should change its name to fuckedintheheadgaijin.com. Some of you are truly ignorant.

You sound really familiar.

[Coligny]

You sound really familiar.

Wuz going to say the same : my mum when drunk.

[Mock Cockpit]

You sound really familiar.

Of course he does, every you fart you'll hear him. He needs to change his name to Fullretard.

[Tsuru]

For some great nuclear punditry I've been following this guy for about a day now... he knows his shit and seems to have the pulse of the men, so to say.

http://twitter.com/arclight

[canman]

Ak we headed to higher ground, but the reason that Hachinohe had very few casualties is that the tsunami didn't hit for two hours after the earthquake. A friend of mine who owns a processing company last three factories but they were able to get all the workers out and to higher ground. Also some of the bigger vessels put out to sea right away to ride the wave while it was still manageable. Today many of them came back to a ruined port.
But in Iwate, Kesennuma, and the tsunami hit only 16 minutes after, giving people no time to get away.
An old woman was interviewed here and she tried to outrun the wave in her K-car, but the water caught up to her, she thought she was dead for sure, but it deposited her car on the second floor roof of a house and she was able to scramble out and get rescued.
On a side note, I was supposed to fly to Canada on Tuesday, but they still don't know when the Shinkansen will start running and all the flights out of Misawa are booked. Do you think Air Canada will allow me to cancel or rebook later? I called there Japanese site and it says that Sunday is a holiday, I called the international number and was told I had to wait 1.5 hours to talk to a customer rep.

[Mike Oxlong]

On a side note, I was supposed to fly to Canada on Tuesday, but they still don't know when the Shinkansen will start running and all the flights out of Misawa are booked. Do you think Air Canada will allow me to cancel or rebook later? I called there Japanese site and it says that Sunday is a holiday, I called the international number and was told I had to wait 1.5 hours to talk to a customer rep.

http://twitter.com/#!/aircanada

[FG Lurker]

There are two sides to the nuclear discussion for sure.

On one hand there's a guy here (Fullback) who claims to have knowledge but of course there is no way to know that for sure. On the Internet "everyone's an expert" as they say. (I think it is likely he knows what he's talking about but that's just my opinion.)

On the other hand there are a lot of people who are spouting crap and seem to be near panic when the information we have currently does not warrant such a level of panic.

My understanding of the situation is that it seems reasonably likely that there has been at least a partial melting of the core (aka meltdown). People shit bricks when they hear the word "meltdown" but there are major differences between something like Chernobyl and any modern reactor in the developed world. Chernobyl was not designed to contain a meltdown whereas modern reactors are designed with containment as a top priority.

Therefore the real issue is not if there has been a meltdown or not but whether the containment structure is functioning as designed. If the core (melted or otherwise) is still contained then the design has been successful and we are not facing a nuclear disaster. In this case the damage to the environment is almost certainly less than the pollution produced by that refinery fire in Chiba.

So, which is the safer technology? Considering how close those reactors were to the quake and that they took a direct hit from the tsunami, vs the Chiba refinery which was a long way from the quake and had no (or nearly no) tsunami issues...

[wuchan]

All the gas stands around me are out of gas. Anyone else seeing this or is it just my area?

[nikoneko]

Tepco has some good info for those wanting to aggregate the gajillion tons of news about the plants out there better: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/index-e.html

Also, surprisingly a bit, Boingboing is doing a great job of aggregating news on this in general: http://www.boingboing.net/

[pheyton]

[Taro Toporific]

NHK TV is saying that rolling blackouts will start here in Tokyo tomorrow in order to deal with the increased needs for power for the start of business Monday.

[Coligny]

There are two sides to the nuclear discussion for sure.

On one hand there's a guy here (Fullback) who claims to have knowledge but of course there is no way to know that for sure. On the Internet "everyone's an expert" as they say. (I think it is likely he knows what he's talking about but that's just my opinion.)

On the other hand there are a lot of people who are spouting crap and seem to be near panic when the information we have currently does not warrant such a level of panic.

You forgot the 3rd side... ---Chernobyl... Geeezzzz... not this shit again...---

(not the technicalities of Chernobyl, the global context, Nuke plant goes bad, spill, no spill ?)

To that you can add:
http://goo.gl/xU2yy from these before / after picture... And since it's sort of well known that pacific and tsunamis goes along like greji and goats...

HOW ON EARTH someone thought it was a good idea to put a plant right by the seaside, at sea level, without even the slightest mudpile to protect it from big tides. It's not a case of "after a problem occurs it's easy to point fingers" it's more a case of "the stupid was strong with this one".

[Mike Oxlong]

Daylight savings time kicked in back Stateside...posts all an hour ahead of actual local time.

[Coligny]

NHK TV is saying that rolling blackouts will start here in Tokyo tomorrow in order to deal with the increased needs for power for the start of business Monday.

So now it's official...

[Blah Pete]

For some great nuclear punditry I've been following this guy for about a day now... he knows his shit and seems to have the pulse of the men, so to say.

http://twitter.com/arclight

This guy just did a interview on CNN about 10 minutes ago.

[FG Lurker]

You forgot the 3rd side... ---Chernobyl... Geeezzzz... not this shit again...---

(not the technicalities of Chernobyl, the global context, Nuke plant goes bad, spill, no spill ?)

Nope, didn't forget that. That goes into the "unreasonable panic" category. Chernobyl was designed with pretty much no thought to safety or the environment. Not too surprising considering the designers...

HOW ON EARTH someone thought it was a good idea to put a plant right by the seaside, at sea level, without even the slightest mudpile to protect it from big tides. It's not a case of "after a problem occurs it's easy to point fingers" it's more a case of "the stupid was strong with this one".

Perhaps the immediate supply if unlimited cooling (water) was a consideration?

As someone else already said, when you design something for a 1 in 100 years event and you get a 1 in 1000 years event you're going to have problems. I'd say that so far things have gone remarkably well.

[Samurai_Jerk]

On a side note, I was supposed to fly to Canada on Tuesday, but they still don't know when the Shinkansen will start running and all the flights out of Misawa are booked. Do you think Air Canada will allow me to cancel or rebook later? I called there Japanese site and it says that Sunday is a holiday, I called the international number and was told I had to wait 1.5 hours to talk to a customer rep.

Will you even be able to get out Tuesday? Yesterday I met a guy who was on his way to Haneda when the quake struck. He said he can't get a flight out till Wednesday. He was here on a business trip and lives in Hong Kong.

FYI, as far as I know airline carriers DON'T let you reschedule flights that are canceled due to an Act of God. I'm not sure which flights fall into this catergory but my friend's friend got stuck in Tokyo this weekend. He was transferring from a domestic flight to an international one in Narita to go back to the US. The Narita flight was cancled and he would have had to buy a new ticket if he wanted to go to the US. He can't afford that so he's flying back home on a domestic flight tonight. He had to pay for that return trip too and got no money back for the canceled flights.

A friend of mine had his flight in the US canceled due to sever storms last year. It was the same deal. He couldn't depart till the next day, got not refund on his canceled ticket and had to buy a new one if he wanted to fly out the following day.

[Kuang_Grade]

Therefore the real issue is not if there has been a meltdown or not but whether the containment structure is functioning as designed. If the core (melted or otherwise) is still contained then the design has been successful and we are not facing a nuclear disaster. In this case the damage to the environment is almost certainly less than the pollution produced by that refinery fire in Chiba.

So, which is the safer technology? Considering how close those reactors were to the quake and that they took a direct hit from the tsunami, vs the Chiba refinery which was a long way from the quake and had no (or nearly no) tsunami issues...

I don't know, this strikes me as a bit uneven comparison, given that refineries catch on fire around the world not infrequently even when there are no earthquake or tsunamis around...granted, not as spectacularly as when there are earthquakes, but heating a flammable products into even more inflammable fractions is inherently risky at the best of times. And while refineries aren't cheap to build, the odds are the damaged bits can be repaired without too much difficulty (although it will take alot of steel and manpower) while it is likely that multiple reactors, if not the entire nuclear facilities, are now completely shot and cannot be easily repaired.

[Greji]

March 13, 2011 16:40

This warden message is to inform U.S. citizens residing or traveling in Japan that they should notify family and friends of their status. This information is also being posted on the Embassy website to help family members learn the status of the person they are looking for.

The U.S. Government is communicating closely with the Japanese Government on events as they unfold. We have and will continue to mobilize all appropriate resources. The U.S. Government and all necessary experts are fully engaged in analyzing the issues, including the Fukushima reactor issues, in close consultation with the Japanese Government. We are committed to providing you with all necessary information as we receive it. There is no double standard ˆ what we advise our Embassy personnel will be provided to all U.S. citizens.

Please understand that there will continue to be substantial misinformation in the public domain. We urge U.S. citizens in Japan to follow the instructions of Japanese civil defense authorities. The Japan Nuclear Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) has recommended that people who live within 20 kilometers of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant in Okumacho evacuate the area immediately. No other measures have been recommended by Japanese authorities at this time.

U.S. citizens in need of emergency consular assistance should send an e-mail to JapanEmergencyUSC@state.gov with detailed information about their location and contact information. We also recommend U.S. citizens in Japan make contact with loved ones in the United States.

Please continue to monitor the Embassy‚s website, http://japan.usembassy.gov/ for updated information and the U.S. Department of State‚s website at http://travel.state.gov

US Embassy Tokyo

[Pearse]

[Cyka UchuuJin]

Will you even be able to get out Tuesday? Yesterday I met a guy who was on his way to Haneda when the quake struck. He said he can't get a flight out till Wednesday. He was here on a business trip and lives in Hong Kong.

FYI, as far as I know airline carriers DON'T let you reschedule flights that are canceled due to an Act of God. I'm not sure which flights fall into this catergory but my friend's friend got stuck in Tokyo this weekend. He was transferring from a domestic flight to an international one in Narita to go back to the US. The Narita flight was cancled and he would have had to buy a new ticket if he wanted to go to the US. He can't afford that so he's flying back home on a domestic flight tonight. He had to pay for that return trip too and got no money back for the canceled flights.

A friend of mine had his flight in the US canceled due to sever storms last year. It was the same deal. He couldn't depart till the next day, got not refund on his canceled ticket and had to buy a new one if he wanted to fly out the following day.

Air Canada is part of Star alliance, and they are pretty nice about these things. I am also one of the stranded, was due to fly out of Narita this morning, but because I got stuck in Tokyo friday night, I couldn't go back to Osaka to pack up and check out of my hotel there. I got back there yesterday afternoon and am now in Tokyo waiting for a flight out, which will be Tuesday morning. Lufthansa has a 'Goodwill Change' policy, which allows one free rebooking in these situations, and the policy is pretty much for all Star alliance airlines. Many flights are leaving on time though, a colleague departed this afternoon on time on SAS from Narita.

[ChargerCarl]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110313/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake

wow, over 10,000?

[Coligny]

Nope, didn't forget that. That goes into the "unreasonable panic" category. Chernobyl was designed with pretty much no thought to safety or the environment. Not too surprising considering the designers...


Perhaps the immediate supply if unlimited cooling (water) was a consideration?

As someone else already said, when you design something for a 1 in 100 years event and you get a 1 in 1000 years event you're going to have problems. I'd say that so far things have gone remarkably well.

As I told you, I'm not discussing the technicalities. Just the fact that... plant goes bad, what to expect of the spill and official communications. The fact that it can't go as bad as Tchernobyl don't mean it will only spill unicorns farting rainbows.

For the position of the plant... Tsunami are not a 1 in 100 years event... The plant was planned for quakes, there was no reason not to prepare it also for tsunami as both goes hands in hands. And just look at the place with 3x elevation exageration:



It's purposely put at sea level. 500m/ 1km more south on the small hill you got a position that could have been protected, more easily.

Aboot the 1 in 100 year remark... It's true for regular buildings, but not an excuse to go that reckless for something that is by itself a bit touchy.

[Cyka UchuuJin]

tsunami warnings have been cancelled.

[FG Lurker]

As I told you, I'm not discussing the technicalities. Just the fact that... plant goes bad, what to expect of the spill and official communications. The fact that it can't go as bad as Tchernobyl don't mean it will only spill unicorns farting rainbows.

I understand that but the containment system seems to have held through the earthquake and the tsunami. If the core melts and the containment is in place then there isn't a major environmental/health problem to deal with.

For the position of the plant... Tsunami are not a 1 in 100 years event...

They're pretty damn rare. Far, FAR rarer than quakes themselves.

It's purposely put at sea level. 500m/ 1km more south on the small hill you got a position that could have been protected, more easily.

Yes, but you'd have a position where cooling water wouldn't be readily available and getting water from the ocean would have been impossible. We also don't know how stable those hills are, they might be solid rock or they might be very unstable. Just because they are elevated does not make them an inherently safer place to build a nuke plant.

Aboot the 1 in 100 year remark... It's true for regular buildings, but not an excuse to go that reckless for something that is by itself a bit touchy.

We've just gone through an m9.0 quake. That's ~1000x more powerful than a 7.0 quake. If the containment holds I think Japan has done an awesome job.

[Coligny]

We've just gone through an m9.0 quake. That's ~1000x more powerful than a 7.0 quake. If the containment holds I think Japan has done an awesome job.

You put containment on see going (over and under) vessel quite safely. I'm not that impressed by the fact that you can also put it on shaky land. And I'm much further unimpressed by the apparent lack of protection of the safety power generators.

The USS Enterprise was nearly lost, the Koursk and Scorpion were... In a sense, they all much more gracefully contained their reactor.

[Ol Dirty Gaijin]

http://atomicinsights.blogspot.com/2011/03/nuclear-plant-issues-in-japan-are-least.html

Sorry if it has been posted already.

[MaxPower]

The warnings on the French and Swiss Embassy sites are pretty freaky.