Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster!!!

[Bucky]

Link farm that may or may not be useful

[cstaylor]

Anyway, now they've found plutonium in/on the ground at the plant. They're saying that because plutonium is heavy and doesn't gasify like iodine it won't travel far, but the fact remains that there is now plutonium outside the reactors.

Now you know why the Americans were recommending a 50 mile evacuation zone. Maybe bricks of plutonium are heavy, but it can still travel in burning smoke.

Note how the yardstick for measuring the effective radioactive dose keeps getting worse and worse. Now they're comparing it to the fallout from nuclear testing in the 50's and 60's.

[cstaylor]

Problem is not from radiation... problem is an accident managed by arrogant, incompetent chronical liars...

Same as glue-grade rice being sold as food for a quick buck, I can't wait to see food labelled as clean while glowing in the dark with government whatchdogs doing nothing is order to avoid disrupting companies profit and reputations.

Exactly.

Don't forget the hollow apology and shuffling of deck chairs for the watchdog in charge.

[cstaylor]

Yeah, cause it's not like the power lines from those generators would've gotten wiped out by the tsunami.......like all the other power lines into the plants were.....

I was imagining mobile generators, not stationary ones. They brought in secondary generators after the first failed, but the power couplings didn't match.

[tigermilk]

So would it be selfish or stupid to travel to Tokyo anytime soon? I tend to go at least once a year and just trying to decide when. May is the last month before hell breaks out over there (and living in the hell of Houston in the summer, I know hell...). What's the scoop? Stay home so I'm not burdening the food and water supply chain? Spend my American bucks to help the economy?

[dimwit]

So would it be selfish or stupid to travel to Tokyo anytime soon? I tend to go at least once a year and just trying to decide when. May is the last month before hell breaks out over there (and living in the hell of Houston in the summer, I know hell...). What's the scoop? Stay home so I'm not burdening the food and water supply chain? Spend my American bucks to help the economy?

May and early June are not that bad a time to go over there as the power demand in Tokyo is generally at it's lowest during that season and the current supply is large enought that it can handle the demand, so blackout are not so likely. Summer in Tokyo is going to be a big problem.

[matsuki]

I was imagining mobile generators, not stationary ones. They brought in secondary generators after the first failed, but the power couplings didn't match.

THIS....the excuse train shinkansen is running at full speed now...

[FG Lurker]

I was imagining mobile generators, not stationary ones. They brought in secondary generators after the first failed, but the power couplings didn't match.

It's easy to look at a particular disaster and pick holes in plans after the fact.

If they had mobile generators and the quake had fucked up the surrounding transportation network (rather than being a relatively distant quake that generated a huge tsunami) you'd be going on about how they should have had generators on-site. What if it was a local quake that also generated a huge tsunami? Would you be telling them they should have had generators ready to be moved by helicopter?

Armchair quarterbacking at its finest.

[Yokohammer]

So I take a break for lunch, come downstairs and turn on the TV ... and there in the diet it's the blame game as usual. Somebody blames Kan for delaying corrective measures at the Fukushima plant by going there to check on the situation. Kan raises his hand, saunters up to the podium and says he doesn't believe his actions caused any delay. Someone else raises their hand, wanders to the microphone and lays more blame on Kan.

These guys are fucking useless. There are multiple crises going on, hundreds of thousands of people are suffering, and they're piddling around playing power games.

I am so pissed about this. A bunch of clueless, impotent children.

[/rant] [... for now]

[Kanchou]

They did delay venting because they were afraid of radiating the PM while he was watching from the air.

He shouldn't have gone in the first place. He should have just let the experts do their jobs as quickly as humanly possible.

[cstaylor]

They did delay venting because they were afraid of radiating the PM while he was watching from the air.

He shouldn't have gone in the first place. He should have just let the experts do their jobs as quickly as humanly possible.

And why were they venting again? This is a TEPCO/JISA attempt to change the subject. They should have never needed to vent: they had 8 hours of battery backup for the cooling system (which functioned properly), plenty of time to bring in those backup generators... oops, they didn't have any.

[cstaylor]

It's easy to look at a particular disaster and pick holes in plans after the fact.

If they had mobile generators and the quake had fucked up the surrounding transportation network (rather than being a relatively distant quake that generated a huge tsunami) you'd be going on about how they should have had generators on-site. What if it was a local quake that also generated a huge tsunami? Would you be telling them they should have had generators ready to be moved by helicopter?

Armchair quarterbacking at its finest.

They brought in generators after the tsunami but before the initial meltdown, but they couldn't interface with the existing equipment. Then they ran out of gas in one of the portable generators.

Are you honestly saying that TEPCO did everything they should have done, before and during the accident?

What do you mean by a local quake? Wasn't this one local enough?

[Yokohammer]

They did delay venting because they were afraid of radiating the PM while he was watching from the air.

He shouldn't have gone in the first place. He should have just let the experts do their jobs as quickly as humanly possible.

Whether they delayed because of the PM or not is not the issue. The issue is that right now there are several crises in progress. That's "crises." Not "minor problems." That's where the focus should be. They can argue about who's at fault until their dicks fall off after the crises have been properly resolved. I can't image how they're finding time for that blame nonsense right now. Basically they just don't give a shit about the people, their own people, who are suffering terribly and who will suffer even more if the problems aren't fixed as soon as possible. That's certainly the way it appears. Unforgivable.

[cstaylor]

Venting only reduces the pressure, but it doesn't prevent the core meltdown that we've been seeing.

[FG Lurker]

Are you honestly saying that TEPCO did everything they should have done, before and during the accident?

I think it is too early to jump up and down while pointing fingers.

The fault that generated the recent quake was not thought capable of generating an earthquake anywhere near as powerful as the M9.0 quake that happened. The plants were designed and tested for up to M7.9 which turned out to be enough due to the distance from the epicenter. The tsunami was the problem. An M9.0 quake is ~45x more powerful than an M7.9 quake and therefore has the potential to generate a far larger tsunami. The plants were designed to withstand a tsunami of up to 6.5 or 7m, not the estimated ~14m high wall of water that hit them.

Now that we can see exactly what happened in this particular disaster it is easy to sit around and say, "TEPCO are idiots! They should have done THIS! (or THAT!)" The problem is though, we can already see what happened. It's far harder to plan for situations that have never happened, especially if they are considered geologically impossible to happen.

I'm not sure what to make of TEPCO's response post-tsunami. It looks inept from a distance but I'm not on the ground seeing things as they unfold.

When you were more active on FG in the past you always struck me as a level-headed guy, not the panicky reactionary that seems to be posting now. I almost wonder if it's the same person (or maybe my memory is shot.)

What do you mean by a local quake? Wasn't this one local enough?

The quake was 154km from the plants. Google Maps and a tool to calculate the distance between two points.

[Coligny]

It's easy to look at a particular disaster and pick holes in plans after the fact.

If they had mobile generators and the quake had fucked up the surrounding transportation network (rather than being a relatively distant quake that generated a huge tsunami) you'd be going on about how they should have had generators on-site. What if it was a local quake that also generated a huge tsunami? Would you be telling them they should have had generators ready to be moved by helicopter?

Armchair quarterbacking at its finest.

Hindsight bias while often to blame for finger pointing after an accident should not be use reversely either.

You're saying that after the fact it was easy to prepare for a solution of this particular problem, implying that before the quake and tsunami this particular chain of event would not have been statistically significant to warrant the expense of planning for it.

Case 1: Hospitals have power generators in case of grid failure; plant or transport line. They have these generators in order to continue functionning in case they are not themselves damaged, but something, somewhere goes tits up, therefore the backup don't need to be any stronger than the hospital itself, because losing the hospital means the backup would be of no use anyway.

Case 2: Powerplant have backup generators in order to be safely cooled down if they are shut down in an emergency.

In this case, the emergency considered is mainly an event for which damage to the plant itself is highly probable.

The backup generator is here, not to allow the plant to run 'business as usual' but to allow a graceful stop of its operations while coping with a unknown level of destruction of its installation.

In this case, the backup generator have to be as protected if not more than the plant, since any damage to the generator would mean losing for sure the plant. AND the generator being in place primarily to deal with -post destructive- scenario, damage of said generator also have to be accounted for.

CQFD, having battery back up, but no available mobile power generator is a proof of criminal wrongdoing. Because if destruction of the power generator was not considered, why having 8h of battery backup ?

You see, i'm not even considering quake, or tsunami or anything. I'm just doing a whitepaper review of a basic emergency situation.

I don't think you can invoke hindsight bias against this.

[FG Lurker]

Venting only reduces the pressure, but it doesn't prevent the core meltdown that we've been seeing.

Melted cores are not a problem as long as the containment holds. People hear the term "meltdown" and instantly freak the hell out. Too much Hollywood.

[FG Lurker]

You're saying that after the fact it was easy to prepare for a solution of this particular problem, implying that before the quake and tsunami this particular chain of event would not have been statistically significant to warrant the expense of planning for it.

Yes, exactly. The plants were designed to withstand up to an M7.9 quake and a tsunami of up to ~7m high. The quake was M9.0 (though obviously weaker at the plants due to distance). The size of the quake (~45x larger than thought possible) generated a tsunami 2x the size that the plants were designed for.

So, if M7.9 was considered the strongest quake possible in that area, the plant should have been designed to withstand a quake 45x stronger, and also a tsunami generated by a quake 45x stronger? AFAIK it actually isn't possible with current engineering to design structures capable of withstanding quakes that large. I have no idea if a tsunami that big can be protected against except by moving the plants many kilometers inland. (Certainly a possibility but being close to the sea means a constant source of coolant should a disaster like this one happen. Moving inland removes that and therefore creates a new problem while solving the old one.)

[cstaylor]

Yes, exactly. The plants were erroneously designed to withstand up to an M7.9 quake and a tsunami of up to ~7m high in the early 1970's. When further research techniques emerged that showed their mistaken thinking, TEPCO refused to reconsider their original incorrect planning.

FTFY. Here's some more "armchair quarterbacking."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110327/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_quake_tsunami_risk

[cstaylor]

When you were more active on FG in the past you always struck me as a level-headed guy, not the panicky reactionary that seems to be posting now. I almost wonder if it's the same person (or maybe my memory is shot.)

I'll ignore the ad hominem attack and refrain from pointing out the safety of your current location.

Background radiation has stayed at double the level when I am, and it's far, far worse up north in Ibaraki. I'd prefer it wasn't, and those responsible for criminally poor preparation and bungled response must be held accountable.

[Coligny]

Yes, exactly. The plants were designed to withstand up to an M7.9 quake and a tsunami of up to ~7m high. The quake was M9.0 (though obviously weaker at the plants due to distance). The size of the quake (~45x larger than thought possible) generated a tsunami 2x the size that the plants were designed for.

You are focusing on engineering, while I am focusing on scenario and plan response.

Your approach say, "we can't shield against that level of destruction, but for a lower level we are perfectly safe".

Yes it's not financially or technically possible to shield againt more than M8 earthquake. That don't mean there should not be different level of planned response. Up to M7.8 tsunami of 3m, plant should be able to cope with it. This imply also that the plant in this case is considered to be restart-able after inspection and maybe minor repair. Over these values, response to minimise impact, post plant total loss response should be prepared.

It's exactly the same process as for cars:
Up to a certain point you try to save the car:
system involved the ABS, ESP, EBD, as much as possible is done to allow the driver to keep control of the vehicle.
Once the situation make preservation of the car impossible, the driver have to be protected. System involved become, Airbags, seatbelts pretentionning, crumple zones.

Tepco, unsurprisingly seems to have only planned, in a financially concious way, how to deal with event possibly damaging the plant but leaving it salvageable (their top priority as proved by their unwillingness to use seawater at first for cooling) and done nothing to prepare for environment protection in case the plant (reactor and back up) was lost.

You don't need a megatsunami to lose a back up generator. A stupid gasoline fire could have killed it too, forcing also most certainly a plant shutdown. in this case, what would have been used to provide the backup power for the cooling pumps ?

[cstaylor]

Melted cores are not a problem as long as the containment holds. People hear the term "meltdown" and instantly freak the hell out. Too much Hollywood.

Containment holds when cooling functions. No water over the cores means no cooling, which leads to heating past engineering tolerances and finally the fuel pellets drop out of the bottom of the containment vessel. There goes your containment.

If this was JR East having a problem, I'd extend them the benefit of the doubt. TEPCO is notorious for bungling, and now those of us caught downwind are paying the price.

[Doctor Stop]

Background radiation has stayed at double the level when I am, and it's far, far worse up north in Ibaraki.

I'm curious where your getting your local data from.

In Hino, background radiation levels are slightly above those in December. Note that the vertical axis is slightly squashed, which makes things look a little bit worse than they are:

http://park30.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html

[cstaylor]

http://park30.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html

Here you go, straight from the Yokohama government: http://www.city.yokohama.lg.jp/kankyo/saigai/

The GM-45 I have installed next to my workstation also confirms those numbers. I'm seeing maximum counts per hour between 45~55 CPM.

For those in Tokyo, here's Denphone's geiger counter. The bottom graph has the more relevant data: http://www.denphone.com/denphone-tokyo-office-geiger-counter

[Mulboyne]

[nullpointer]

Here you go, straight from the Yokohama government: http://www.city.yokohama.lg.jp/kankyo/saigai/

The GM-45 I have installed next to my workstation also confirms those numbers. I'm seeing maximum counts per hour between 45~55 CPM.

For those in Tokyo, here's Denphone's geiger counter. The bottom graph has the more relevant data: http://www.denphone.com/denphone-tokyo-office-geiger-counter

Thanks Chris, this is really helpful.

[cstaylor]

Thanks Chris, this is really helpful.

You're welcome.

[cstaylor]

[Doctor Stop]

The levels in your area aren't anything to be worried about, CS.

[cstaylor]

The levels in your area aren't anything to be worried about, CS.

Between you and FGL, you guys must have me pegged as a complete mathtard.

Yes, the gamma ray counts, at even double what they were before Daiichi NPS went sideways, are nothing. Like I said a few days ago, the real problem is the water and food supply: radioiodine short-term, cesium (and now possibly plutonium) long-term. I'd rather not have beta-decay happening inside my son's thyroid.