Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster!!!

[Yokohammer]

Far more informative than all the elusive waffling of TEPCO, the J-gov., and the TV networks combined.

[SIZE="1"]I tried to give you a green radioactive dot for that, but apparently I need to spread it around a bit first.[/SIZE]

[Greji]

Blaming anyone today doesn't fix anything at the plant today. And they're not even close to containing this yet.

Good point and nice post!

[FG Lurker]

Blaming anyone today doesn't fix anything at the plant today. And they're not even close to containing this yet.

Thanks for coming back and posting again, and thanks for the detailed and informative post. We can be kinda dickish here at times but please do stick around. I think you'll grow to like the site, warts and all.

[omae mona]

I agree with many who have stated the situation at the plant is still pretty dire and shows no signs of getting under control.

But I still don't get it. Why all the focus on the engineering aspects of this? I know this is a hobby for many people here, but isn't the issue we actually care about our health? Other than engineering geeks, I suspect the only reason the vast majority of people are reading this thread, deep down, is that they want to know whether they need to take any action to avoid getting sick.

Since we are not having an easy time finding clear, unambiguous information on the health risks, I think we are using the status of the plant as a proxy for our health risk assessment. The problem is the connection between the status at the plant and the health effects on people far away is very tenuous, at best. I think many people are jumping to incorrect conclusions. I don't know for sure, but I think people are perhaps conflating two different issues in their head. The power plant situation getting fucked up beyond all belief is a VERY different issue than whether we are going to absorb dangerous radiation in Tokyo or eat dangerous radioactive food. Just because the situation is awful in Fukushima does not mean the situation is awful elsewhere.

I know for a fact that some of my work colleagues have conflated these ideas. We've got people saying "gosh, the situation in Fukushima seems to get worse each day. I'm nervous." And when asked why they are nervous they say "well, since we don't know what's going to happen in Fukushima, we just don't know what could happen to Tokyo". That's dead wrong. We do know what could happen to Tokyo. We have a whole field of experts who study this type of thing (health physics is the name of the field, BTW). We have decades of research and empirical results from places like TMI and Chernobyl. And given everything we know so far, there seems to be a very strong consensus that the chances are extremely, extremely low - no matter how bad things get at Fukushima - that there can not be a health effect this far away. Of course the chances are not exactly zero, but we should probably be more concerned about getting hit by a car when we cross the street.

Until somebody is able to give a remotely credible reason that such-and-such a breach in Fukushima might meaningfully increase my cancer risk in Tokyo, or that plutonium on the ground there could hurt my family here, I just don't give a damn personally about the details about what's blowing up or what's leaking in which order.

I take a lot of solace in reading things like this daily updated Q&A (sorry, Japanese only) from the Japan Radiation Research Society. And this one from The Radiation Effects Research Foundation. These groups are some of the most authoritative experts in the world on health effects from radiation, and they've been at this for decades. And they are basically calling laughable the idea that there is even remote cause for concern in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

[cstaylor]

And they are basically calling laughable the idea that there is even remote cause for immediate concern in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

FTFY. Fortunately the I-131 will be gone within 3 months after Daiichi's complete shutdown, so at least the increased chances of thyroid disease in children will be drastically reduced.

[Yokohammer]

But I still don't get it. Why all the focus on the engineering aspects of this? I know this is a hobby for many people here, but isn't the issue we actually care about our health?

I think we have to remember that, broadly, there are two types of health we need to worry about physical and psychological. Not knowing what's going on at the plant, and especially not having any idea of how long it's going to take to fix, can be a real psychological burden for some people. Looking at the engineering issues gives us an inkling of how long: weeks, months, years? If we're looking at some radioactive leakage for a few weeks, for example, I think most of us can agree that it probably won't be a problem and can then get on with our lives. But if the plant is going to be spewing radioactive crud all over the place for many months or a year, say, then ... then what? I really don't know, but I do know that if that was known to be the case I'd be digging around for reliable information on the long-term effects of low-level radiation.

I had a CAT scan last year, and from the info I can gather that would have blasted me with anywhere from around 3,000 µSv to 6,900 µSv in one swell foop. No big deal, and I'm not particularly worried. The big psychological difference is between knowing and not knowing. Knowing = peace of mind, one way or another.

[omae mona]

I think we have to remember that, broadly, there are two types of health we need to worry about physical and psychological. Not knowing what's going on at the plant, and especially not having any idea of how long it's going to take to fix, can be a real psychological burden for some people.

I feel bad for them, but they should turn off their TVs and stop reading the news then. Why does it matter how long it takes to fix if it isn't going to affect your physical health regardless? I am not following.

Looking at the engineering issues gives us an inkling of how long: weeks, months, years? If we're looking at some radioactive leakage for a few weeks, for example, I think most of us can agree that it probably won't be a problem and can then get on with our lives. But if the plant is going to be spewing radioactive crud all over the place

It's not all over the place. It's in a very specific place with an incredibly low probability of it being carried in meaningful concentrations to where we live.

for many months or a year, say, then ... then what? I really don't know,

My suggestion is to read up on it, then. You will know if you look at what the experts say. I think it's awful that mass media is not making this information more readily available, but thanks to the Internet it's out there (e.g. the links I posted above). It's published, and it's pretty unanimous as you look across different sites. At this point I have seen no credible information that the health risk will go UP as time passes, regardless of whether they fix the problems or not.

but I do know that if that was known to be the case I'd be digging around for reliable information on the long-term effects of low-level radiation.

No need to dig. Check out the links. It answers the question. The low-level radiation that is reaching areas outside the 20km area is not enough to increase anybody's cancer risk, even if you bask in it for the rest of your life.



[quote]I had a CAT scan last year, and from the info I can gather that would have blasted me with anywhere from around 3,000 &#181]

We DO know exactly how much we're being exposed to now. It's not a mystery. And based on reasonable expertise, and all the empirical evidence from TMI and Chernobyl, we have got damn good ideas about the maximum level of exposure even in the worst case where Fukushima goes further downhill. And the level is far below the point where it is a health risk.

It's getting to the point where I would expand your formula. Knowing = peace of mind, and not knowing = willful ignorance.

[omae mona]

Here you go: $25 billion for the moment.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12889641

That's a pretty big drop in the bucket!

First of all, that is the number TEPCO's mulling over for issuing debt. And it will come from private sources (banks are currently jumping at the opportunity to finance TEPCO from what I have heard). While partially related, the $25 billion is not a measure the amount of economic damage the plant's problems are causing.

But even if you pretend this is $25 billion of damage to the economy, yes, I still think it's a drop in the bucket compared to the $250 billion. So I am still baffled by why we are so focused on TEPCO's errors as opposed to the government's errors regarding quake & tsunami protection, with the $250 billion in damage and 20,000 dead.

(BTW I am not implying the government is at fault for the tsunami destruction. I am implying that if you are second-guessing TEPCO's risk assessment and responsibility, you should be at least as critical of the government's risk assessment and responsibility surrounding the tsunami).

[Yokohammer]

Hmm ... not sure who's more obsessed here.

Lets put it this way: it gives us something geeky to discuss and froth at the mouth about, rather than getting all paranoid and despondent about something we don't really understand.

Works for me!

[cstaylor]

First of all, that is the number TEPCO's mulling over for issuing debt. And it will come from private sources (banks are currently jumping at the opportunity to finance TEPCO from what I have heard). While partially related, the $25 billion is not a measure the amount of economic damage the plant's problems are causing.

That's still $25 billion to return to the status quo before the earthquake, and they're jumping at the opportunity because the GOJ has insinuated that TEPCO is "too big to fail" with their nationalization talk.

But even if you pretend this is $25 billion of damage to the economy, yes, I still think it's a drop in the bucket compared to the $250 billion.

That $250 billion to rebuild will create jobs. What will issuing $25 billion in debt to cover preventable mistakes do for the economy?

If everything was as sanguine as you and FGL make it out to be, why is the TEPCO president AWOL? According to you and FGL, it was impossible for them to do anything to prevent this.

[cstaylor]

Radioactive iodine 3,355 times legal limit found in seawater

Radioactive iodine-131 at a concentration of 3,355 times the maximum allowable level under the law was detected in a seawater sample taken Tuesday afternoon near the crisis-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the government's nuclear agency said Wednesday.

The highest concentration observed so far in seawater from the troubled power station suggests radiation originating from reactor cores, where fuel rods have partially melted, may have been continuously leaking into the Pacific Ocean.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/81984.html

[Yokohammer]

:glow2:

The highest concentration observed so far in seawater from the troubled power station suggests radiation originating from reactor cores, where fuel rods have partially melted, may have been continuously leaking into the Pacific Ocean.

[SIZE="3"]Somebody warn Spongebob!!!![/SIZE]

[cstaylor]

[SIZE="3"]Somebody warn Spongebob!!!![/SIZE]

[cstaylor]

Minshuto may push through legislation to force careless power utilities like TEPCO to have hardened backup power supplies:

Japan's government may require nuclear plant operators to have additional emergency power in place to cool reactors and spent nuclear fuel pools in case existing systems are knocked out, a ministry official said on Wednesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/30/us-japan-nuclear-idUSTRE72T09E20110330

[FG Lurker]

Ah, omae mona, what is this reason and logic you use? If you're not spouting the same sheeple-panic-inducing crap produced by the 24 hour news networks then you must be wrong!

[cstaylor]

Ah, omae mona, what is this reason and logic you use? If you're not spouting the same sheeple-panic-inducing crap produced by the 24 hour news networks then you must be wrong!

[FG Lurker]

FGL always takes contrarian positions

I rarely follow the crowd of sheeple, this is true. If you start growing wool you know why...

so there's no hope of changing his mind, even with evidence showing TEPCO's criminal negligence. If and when it ever sees the light of day, I suspect he'll be very quiet about his previously incorrect position.

No, not true. I have stated several times that I don't think TEPCO is perfect. Specifically, I will not be surprised (and I have stated this before too) if it is found that TEPCO ignored GE-recommended upgrades to the Fukushima plants.

I still think nuclear power is the best way to power Japan

Finally something we can agree on. Japan needs more nuclear power.

but the management at TEPCO and the GOJ needs to go.

And who, exactly, would replace them? That is the bigger question. The whole situation with amakudari needs to be fixed.

[cstaylor]

And who, exactly, would replace them? That is the bigger question. The whole situation with amakudari needs to be fixed.

How about everyone below the level of bucho moves up, and those above are fired?

Look, there's amakudari and then there's unsafe amakudari like we're seeing here. A bank manager whose branch gets downsized gets moved off to some corporate customer? Harmless. Mid-career regulators who desperately need the retirement perks from the virtual power monopoly in eastern Japan? No thanks.

Additionally, Japan doesn't separate their promotion and regulation of nuclear power like the U.S. does.

[Samurai_Jerk]

I think one thing we can all agree on is no matter how bad things get, none of this will lead to a major change in the status quo.

[FG Lurker]

:glow2:

Over a period of about 20 years (give or take a bit) the US conducted over 100 atmospheric (above ground) nuclear tests ~150km from Las Vegas and ~400km from Los Angeles. Even the smallest of these tests released *far* more radiation than is possible to release from the Fukushima plants. Even in this situation there have not been measurable increases in cancers in the LV or LA areas that I am aware of. Stop panicking already.

[Coligny]

Minshuto may push through legislation to force careless power utilities like TEPCO to have hardened backup power supplies:


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/30/us-japan-nuclear-idUSTRE72T09E20110330

This meanwhile is typical kneejerk reaction...

you don't push anything before you know for sure... It just give company new excuse to screw up: "but we followed them rules" (that were established while not knowing what was needed)

[cstaylor]

Stop panicking already.

I'm not panicking. However, I don't remember the last time I ate seafood from Las Vegas.

And I like how your measurement yardstick keeps getting worse. We've gone from TMI to Chernobyl to above-ground nuclear testing.

"Fukushima: not nearly as bad as the Trinity testing grounds"

[FG Lurker]

How about everyone below the level of bucho moves up, and those above are fired?

It's a culture issue. Removing the top layer to replace it with people who have been heavily influenced by the top layer won't fix things.

Look, there's amakudari and then there's unsafe amakudari like we're seeing here. A bank manager whose branch gets downsized gets moved off to some corporate customer? Harmless. Mid-career regulators who desperately need the retirement perks from the virtual power monopoly in eastern Japan? No thanks.

I wouldn't really consider the first example to be amakudari. The second one definitely would be and it needs to be stopped. I'm at a loss for how to stop it though. (Passing a law, but the law needs to stand up to court challenges on constitutional grounds...)

Additionally, Japan doesn't separate their promotion and regulation of nuclear power like the U.S. does.

Something we agree on. I mentioned this in a previous post too, Japan needs a strong & independent regulator for the nuclear industry. (Hell, strong and independent regulators are needed for many industries here...)

[cstaylor]

It's a culture issue. Removing the top layer to replace it with people who have been heavily influenced by the top layer won't fix things.

Japanese bureaucrats aren't robots. If they see behavior A gets you fired and no sweet perks, they won't do A anymore.

I wouldn't really consider the first example to be amakudari.

Not all heavens are as illustrious as TEPCO, but the idea is similar. Foist public officials who haven't made the cut from assistant to director on the companies they previously regulated, guaranteeing a corporate-subsidized retirement for said employee and a friendly face for his previous coworkers to deal with. Eliminating amakudari would require larger retirement packages for government officials along with harsh penalties for those who break the law.

The second one definitely would be and it needs to be stopped. I'm at a loss for how to stop it though. (Passing a law, but the law needs to stand up to court challenges on constitutional grounds...)

In the case of the revolving door between JISA and TEPCO, an independent body similar to the US NRC like we've previously discussed would be a start. Collusion is always a problem, but having more independent eyes on the safety standards along with criminal penalties for those breaking whistleblower laws would be better.

[FG Lurker]

I'm not panicking.

Coulda fooled me...

However, I don't remember the last time I ate seafood from Las Vegas.

I don't eat seafood at all. Problem solved.

And I like how your measurement yardstick keeps getting worse. We've gone from TMI to Chernobyl to above-ground nuclear testing.

I am not equating Fukushima with either Chernobyl or above-ground testing. I am saying that both of those were far worse than what is possible at Fukushima. Chernobyl happened too recently to be able to state categorically that there were no long term effects (but it seems unlikely that there will be any long term effects to the general population.) The atmospheric testing ended >40 years ago though and to the best of my knowledge no long term effects are known, even in LV which is about the same distance away as Tokyo is from Fukushima.

"Fukushima: not nearly as bad as the Trinity testing grounds"

This sentence perfectly represents most of your posts on this subject: Long on fear, missing any facts. Trinity was in New Mexico, not Nevada.

[Greji]

Trinity was in New Mexico, not Nevada.

That's not all together true Lurk. There was a Trinity that worked at Mustang Ranch the last time I was there. She was a bit pricey, but well worth the ride....

[cstaylor]

I don't eat seafood at all. Problem solved.

My God, that's like admitting you live in Paris and can't stand good cheese, fine wine, and world-class chocolate. Seafood does taste better when it's not fished out of the dotonbori.

This sentence perfectly represents most of your posts on this subject: Long on fear, missing any facts. Trinity was in New Mexico, not Nevada.

I think my original tagline sounds better than: "Fukushima: What explodes in Vegas stays in Vegas... probably"

[cstaylor]

That's not all together true Lurk. There was a Trinity that worked at Mustang Ranch the last time I was there. She was a bit pricey, but well worth the ride....

But did she glow in the dark?

[Samurai_Jerk]

That's not all together true Lurk. There was a Trinity that worked at Mustang Ranch the last time I was there. She was a bit pricey, but well worth the ride....

Greji, tell the truth. You prefer rides at the Mustache Ranch.

[Kuang_Grade]

Over a period of about 20 years (give or take a bit) the US conducted over 100 atmospheric (above ground) nuclear tests ~150km from Las Vegas and ~400km from Los Angeles. Even the smallest of these tests released *far* more radiation than is possible to release from the Fukushima plants. Even in this situation there have not been measurable increases in cancers in the LV or LA areas that I am aware of. Stop panicking already.

Aww, come on Lurk, now you are just grabbing at air...Prevailing winds for LA would mean it would extremely unlikely anything happening in NV would reach LA.

But the CDC actually looked into this matter a few years back and given more than a few of the atomic tests were also conducted with secondary purposes of estimating the impact of a nuclear war on the country, there is a surprising amount of data available.

http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/fallout/RF-GWT_study.htm

Summary

This report is a review of the draft feasibility study that was issued at the request of Congress by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Cancer Institute (NCI). Over 500 atmospheric nuclear-weapons tests were conducted at various sites around the world during 1945-1980. As public awareness and concern mounted over the possible health hazards associated with exposure to the fallout from weapons testing, a feasibility study was initiated by CDC and NCI to assess the extent of the hazard. The CDC-NCI study claims that the fallout might have led to approximately 11,000 excess deaths, most caused by thyroid cancer linked to exposure to iodine-131. The committee noted that CDC and NCI used the best available data to estimate exposure and health hazards. The committee does not recommend an expanded study of exposure to radionuclides other than 131I since radiation doses from those radionuclides were much lower than those from 131I. It also recommended that CDC urge Congress to prohibit the destruction of all remaining records relevant to fallout.

Similarly, there is the St. Louis Tooth study, which in the 50s and 60s rather creepily collected children's teeth to test how much strontium 90 they held. While based on relatively small numbers, it is an interesting study, given how difficult it is to figure out the impact of small exposure levels.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/14/health/14cancer.html

http://www.radiation.org/spotlight/101210_ijhs_ManganoSherman.html