Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster!!!

[omae mona]

:glow:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/world/asia/30farmers.html?ref=asia

That is a good link, and thanks. But let's compare apples and apples. That number is for all farming in Fukushima and represents a full year of all agricultural output, right?

Regarding measuring economic loss: we do not know yet how long any bans will continue or how wide the ban will be in terms of geography or products covered. I am almost certain the region subject to ban is currently much smaller than all of Fukushima (does anybody know?). And not 100% of agricultural output is banned.

So this article doesn't convince me that the economic loss will be more than a fraction of that $2.5 billion. I still feel good about my completely pulled-out-of-the-ass $1 billion estimate from my previous message. Even if it is $2.5 billion, though, I am still calling it a "drop in the bucket" next to the overall estimated $250 billion economic impact of the quake. I am still baffled by the amount of attention being given to Fukushima relative to the overall quake aftermath.

[cstaylor]

I am still baffled by the amount of attention being given to Fukushima relative to the overall quake aftermath.

I think if the tsunami was still coming in every few hours, people would be freaking out about that too. With the tsunami gone, grieving, cleaning, and rebuilding remains.

The trouble with Daiichi NPS is no one really knows when and how it will end up. Will there be so much contamination of the Fukushima landscape that a large part of the prefecture becomes a permanent exclusion zone?

[FG Lurker]

I am still baffled by the amount of attention being given to Fukushima relative to the overall quake aftermath.

Yep, me too.

Here is a very recent collection of photos and first-hand commentary from a couple of people on the ground in Tohoku. It's heartbreaking.

[cstaylor]

Yep, me too.

Here is a very recent collection of photos and first-hand commentary from a couple of people on the ground in Tohoku. It's heartbreaking.

And imagine how many more volunteers* would be pouring into Fukushima and Miyagi prefectures if there were no threat of radioactive contamination?

TEPCO's incompetence can be felt everywhere throughout this disaster.

If there had been no widespread contamination, would there have been a run on water throughout Japan? Toilet paper? Milk? Would farmers be out of work, pushed from their homes even though they lived far away from the ocean?

[size=-2]*Our group within the Rotary Club of Japan has raised over $30k for disaster relief. It's not much, but it's a start.[/size]

[cstaylor]

NEWS ADVISORY: Radioactive iodine 4,385 times legal limit found in seawater near plant

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/

[Ganma]

[canman]

To feel angry about some of the people who left Japan. I was watching Canadian news last night, and they showed a restuarant in Tokyo where 15 Chinese workers left after the earthquake, tsunami, radiation threat. The owner and his wife were trying to run things best they could but with most workers gone he said is was really tough. They called one of the workers who had gone back to China, and she said that she really liked working in Japan, that she could make much more money there, but it was too dangerous now. When things recover and return to normal she would like to return.
I was ready to punch my monitor when I heard that.
Any opinions, or an I just being a spiteful person for feeling that way.
On another note, I see my idea to pick up the junk at the riverside has taken off. Now, many people are out collecting and piling up the garbage.

[Coligny]

To feel angry about some of the people who left Japan. I was watching Canadian news last night, and they showed a restuarant in Tokyo where 15 Chinese workers left after the earthquake, tsunami, radiation threat. The owner and his wife were trying to run things best they could but with most workers gone he said is was really tough. They called one of the workers who had gone back to China, and she said that she really liked working in Japan, that she could make much more money there, but it was too dangerous now. When things recover and return to normal she would like to return.
I was ready to punch my monitor when I heard that.
Any opinions, or an I just being a spiteful person for feeling that way.
On another note, I see my idea to pick up the junk at the riverside has taken off. Now, many people are out collecting and piling up the garbage.

Once again... were they running away from the danger or from the lies...

The French ambassy recommend against drinking milk for the next 3 weeks... With self-check geiger counters deployed in supermarkets their would not be any need for these kind of 'walk in the dark' advice. Radioactivity is the easiest thing to hide for politicians...

[cstaylor]

Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) could face compensation claims of up to JPY11 trillion ($133 billion), nearly four times its equity, if Japan's worst nuclear crisis drags on for two years, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a report.

Adding to its woes, the utility's cash flow is under pressure as it has to pay more for costly crude and fuel oil and struggles to rebuild generation capacity.

"In any event, we think it is very unlikely that TEPCO will end up in legal bankruptcy, considering its importance as a provider of a key part of the infrastructure, electricity," Ueda wrote.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/UPDATE-1-TEPCO-claims-could-hit-133-bln-on-Japan-n-FG4JX?opendocument&src=rss

[matsuki]

The trouble with Daiichi NPS is no one really knows when and how it will end up.

Here on FG it's fine but I keep laughing at the foreign news that continue to call it "Daicha Fukashima" instead of just #1 NPS. You think by now they would understand the name.

To feel angry about some of the people who left Japan. I was watching Canadian news last night, and they showed a restuarant in Tokyo where 15 Chinese workers left after the earthquake, tsunami, radiation threat. The owner and his wife were trying to run things best they could but with most workers gone he said is was really tough. They called one of the workers who had gone back to China, and she said that she really liked working in Japan, that she could make much more money there, but it was too dangerous now. When things recover and return to normal she would like to return.
I was ready to punch my monitor when I heard that.
Any opinions, or an I just being a spiteful person for feeling that way.

Don't waste any emotion on them. They'll have plenty of fun to deal with if they try to come back, yes? Taxes, unpaid cell phone bills finding a new place to rent and such...

[cstaylor]

Radiation fears have prevented authorities from collecting as many as 1,000 bodies of victims of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami from within the 20-kilometer-radius evacuation zone around the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant, police sources said Thursday.

One of the sources said bodies had been ''exposed to high levels of radiation after death.'' The view was supported by the detection Sunday of elevated levels of radiation on a body found in Okuma, Fukushima Prefecture, about 5 km from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/82200.html

[CrankyBastard]

To feel angry about some of the people who left Japan. I was watching Canadian news last night, and they showed a restuarant in Tokyo where 15 Chinese workers left after the earthquake, tsunami, radiation threat. The owner and his wife were trying to run things best they could but with most workers gone he said is was really tough. They called one of the workers who had gone back to China, and she said that she really liked working in Japan, that she could make much more money there, but it was too dangerous now. When things recover and return to normal she would like to return.
I was ready to punch my monitor when I heard that.
Any opinions, or an I just being a spiteful person for feeling that way.
On another note, I see my idea to pick up the junk at the riverside has taken off. Now, many people are out collecting and piling up the garbage.

Not only people from the foreign community it seems. This lady got the urge to go too.

[SIZE="2"]Fearful Japanese citizen flees to Hamburg[/SIZE]

Consumed by fear, Mariko Oshima fled her home country of Japan and came to America.

"Even in Yokohama, buildings were falling apart and the streets were rising and cracking due to the quake, according to Oshima."

http://www.berksmontnews.com/articles/2011/03/29/hamburg_area_item/news/doc4d9257fa303fc930910498.txt?viewmode=fullstory

[Greji]

Consumed by fear, Mariko Oshima fled her home country of Japan and came to America.

"Even in Yokohama, buildings were falling apart and the streets were rising and cracking due to the quake, according to Oshima.

Cranky, that's gotta be one of them port call hookers of yours. We zoomies stick with them straight and honest BJ queens!

[CrankyBastard]

Cranky, that's gotta be one of them port call hookers of yours. We zoomies stick with them straight and honest BJ queens!

If memory serves me right, the buildings were falling apart and the streets were rising and cracking in the Kogane Cho district long before the earthquake.

Before any of you smartasses say anything, I'm not talking about the 1923 Kanto Daishinsai.

[Greji]

Before any of you smartasses say anything, I'm not talking about the 1923 Kanto Daishinsai.

Nobody is going to say a thing Cranky. We all know you had bilge watch and were under sail to Singapore on a three-master before that earthquake even happened....

[omae mona]

:glow2:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/UPDATE-1-TEPCO-claims-could-hit-133-bln-on-Japan-n-FG4JX?opendocument&src=rss

Damn, you beat me to the punch on this one. I was going to post this. I am actually trying to get my hands on the Merrill Lynch report to find out if the reporter is accurately conveying what they wrote, and whether the report itself is based on sound reasoning.

In the meantime I have another analyst's report in my hands, estimating the total claims against TEPCO to be several trillion yen, much lower than this 11 trillion figure apparently from Merrill Lynch. At this point the official government damage estimate is just over 1 trillion yen, but this analyst thinks it will go higher.

Incidentally analysis I have read thinks it's likely TEPCO will be fully on the hook to pay for actual damages, and they only have 120 billion yen of insurance to cover it, probably not nearly enough. On the other hand, it is likely that claimants will have an uphill battle to receive damages for indirect effects (like loss of sales due to an irrational panic). Still, there are going to be tons of lawsuits like that, and even if they are doomed to be dismissed, TEPCO's going to have some serious legal costs.

Anyway, if Merrill Lynch turns out to be correct, at an order of magnitude more damage than I am hearing from other sources, then I will gladly revise my "drop in the bucket" stance. I'm not too proud to admit I am stupid!!

[Mulboyne]

It's just that with two weeks of hindsight people have a different perspective on things...

It really didn't take two weeks. It was clear over the first weekend (12th/13th) that TEPCO was responding inadequately. By Monday 14th, there was widespread criticism of the company. It seemed that they were coming up with solutions for battles they had already lost and their failure to present competent explanations at press conferences contributed greatly to the sense of unease in those early days.

Certainly, there were some who said right at the outset that we should all shut up and let TEPCO get on with it because they were doing their best. That seemed wholly unconvincing to me. We had no way of knowing whether they were doing their best, and justifiable doubts about whether they were the right people to be making those judgements anyway.

[cstaylor]

I'm not too proud to admit I am stupid!!

One down... one to go.

[Samurai_Jerk]

Ryo Ishikawa will donate all of 2011 prize money to Japan

There are people that step up during crisis situations, and people that step up, and for victims of the Japan earthquake and tsunami, they can look at young Ryo Ishikawa to be leading the latter group.

Ishikawa, just 19 years old and a Japanese professional golfer, announced on Wednesday that he will be donating all of his 2011 prize money to victims of the natural disaster that devastated Japan on March 11. That means that Ishikawa will probably be donating over $1 million, a number people estimate Ryo will win if he has a solid second full season on the PGA Tour, especially since a season ago he earned 151 million yen ($1.8 million) on the Japan Tour alone to go along with his $149,180 in the states.

Why has Ishikawa decided to do this, besides the obvious reasons that he is from Japan and wants to help out any way he can? He has told Japanese press that he feels the extra motivation to play well will help his game, and give him a reason to really grind out every round.

Let's hope he kicks ass this year!

[Yokohammer]

Ryo Ishikawa will donate all of 2011 prize money to Japan

Wow. Even though he probably has other income sources such as endorsements and whatever, that prize money has got to be a big part of his yearly take.

I am impressed. Ryo now has a new supporter.

[Samurai_Jerk]

Wow. Even though he probably has other income sources such as endorsements and whatever, that prize money has got to be a big part of his yearly take.

I am impressed. Ryo now has a new supporter.

I wouldn't be surprised if he makes more in endorsements but it's not like he's making MLB or Tiger Woods money so the ammount he pledged is potentially a lot relative to his income.

[Kanchou]

America has a lot of famous golfers who are leagues above Ryo, and a lot of them make a lot more money in prize money.

But as far as Japan is concerned, the fact that Ishikawa is Japanese makes him in the same league as Tiger, and since the Japanese tend to pick one athlete and put all their sponsorships behind them, I guarantee he makes 10 times as much in endorsements as he does in prize money.

The same goes for Kei Nishikori. He's not even the top ranked Japanese player at this point, but I guarantee he makes 10X as much as the next most famous Japanese male tennis player.

This goes even more so for Maria Sharapova, although not as an example of Japan but sports in general. She's the highest payed female athlete on the planet, but hasn't been #1 or won a major in years.

[Mulboyne]

[YThq]l1BZifY6Wy8[/YThq]

[FG Lurker]

One down... one to go.

Yep, will be waiting.

[cstaylor]

Yep, will be waiting.

For your reading pleasure while we wait: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

[Doctor Stop]

If memory serves me right, the buildings were falling apart and the streets were rising and cracking in the Kogane Cho district long before the earthquake.

And that wasn't the only thing rising in Koganecho, if you know what I mean.

[Catoneinutica]

A couple of (useless) comments and questions...

-Anyone think there'll be much relief for mortgage holders whose buildings got destroyed? Remember, Japan is a land of recourse loans: you can't just "walk away" from defunct real estate.

-Gregory Clark wrote over at the NBR Forum that the Japanese are exceedingly weak at contingency planning, since it requires the kind of abstract, creative thinking that they so dislike.

-The areas targeted by TEPCO for rolling blackouts seem to have been chosen by favoritism/patronage to a great degree. Why is it that only Arakawa-ku gets a blackout? Because it's Tokyo's poorest? Why does Inage-ku in Chiba City get a blackout but not, say, Mihama-ku? And yes, Sokka Gakkai's big compound in Inage-ku is exempt. The tatemae is that has to do with the distribution of power lines - I'd say that's the honne as well!

-Where did all the yogurt go?

-Will TEPCO's bondholders escape unscathed? They shouldn't; they should've known what a shite entity they were buying debt from.

-The high-end retail market's been decimated. What about the resale and auction markets? We'll find out soon.

[Caustic Saint]

-Where did all the yogurt go?

There was a bit about this on the late news last night. Seems it has something to do with the temperatures it's either produced at or stored at, all relating to the cultures needed to make yogurt yogurt.

No reliable energy means no safe yogurt.

(Apologies if I'm misquoting the news here, but that's what I got from it.)

[Mulboyne]

-Anyone think there'll be much relief for mortgage holders whose buildings got destroyed? Remember, Japan is a land of recourse loans: you can't just "walk away" from defunct real estate.

Here's one book (Japanese) which you might find interesting. It deals with exactly that question.

The short answer is that relief can take the form of lower interest rates and a deferred repayment schedule but the loan amount stands. Moral hazard comes into the equation because some will have protected themselves against this risk through earthquake insurance which would be pointless if everyone got relief anyway.

Mortgage holders can take out another loan to rebuild but, in the aftermath of Kobe, that wasn't an option for everyone. Bankruptcy is one route but you would usually lose your current savings and any insurance payments in the deal.

-Where did all the yogurt go?

Someone asked on Twitter "Is yoghurt the new toilet paper?" which sounded very messy to me.

[Jack]

To feel angry about some of the people who left Japan. I was watching Canadian news last night, and they showed a restuarant in Tokyo where 15 Chinese workers left after the earthquake, tsunami, radiation threat. The owner and his wife were trying to run things best they could but with most workers gone he said is was really tough. They called one of the workers who had gone back to China, and she said that she really liked working in Japan, that she could make much more money there, but it was too dangerous now. When things recover and return to normal she would like to return.
I was ready to punch my monitor when I heard that.
Any opinions, or an I just being a spiteful person for feeling that way.
On another note, I see my idea to pick up the junk at the riverside has taken off. Now, many people are out collecting and piling up the garbage.

No, you're not alone. My wife was telling me about all those illegal Chinese trying to leave and the excusesn they are coming up with to get a free pass back to china. In some cases the ladies were leaving their husbands and children behind to save themselves from an imaginary catastrophe. I guess the Japanese will now know who their real friends are.

This will give more excuses for Japanese not to hire foreigners next time around.