LiqueFUCKED(gai)jin!

[Catoneinutica]

I've maintained a steady and mind-numbingly tedious drumbeat over the years about the perils of buying a new house or condo in Japan: they're virtually guaranteed to start depreciating the minute you drive them off the lot, as it were. (Prompting Mulboyne to reply once, well, he wouldn't have minded earning the 30% return a particular Tokyo REIT made the previous year, which is akin to having someone say, don't buy a top-of-the-line computer because it'll depreciate into a doorstop in a few years and replying, well, Acme Computer Leasing stock did quite well last year...).

But not only that: you're not imdemnified. The vast majority of homeless tsunami and deathzone victims will lose everything. Another class of owner who will lose a lot: people who own houses condos in built on reclaimed land in places like Shin-Urayasu. Even people with earthquake insurance riders are finding that liquefaction is excluded, apparently. And people owning places on solid ground won't escape unscathed when a good part of the reclaimed areas surrounding Tokyo Bay sink into a muddy sump during the next big Kanto quake.

Sorry for the rant, but I really feel like notice has been served by recent events that it might be a good idea to revisit whatever exit plans you might have as well as assessing what sort of real estate losses you're willing to suffer. To recently-arrived FGs (a vanishing breed), RENT, even if you can get a mortgage through your spouse. Those sexerifically low mortgage rates are tied to recourse loans that you can never escape short of bankruptcy, which is akin to hara-kiri here. And then they'll hunt down your guarantors.

[Mulboyne]

I'm sorry that my comment nearly five years ago upset you so much Catone but I notice that it has unbalanced you to the extent you have entirely misrepresented what I said.

You maintained: "...What has been the trend in land prices in Japan over the past 15 or so years?...I'm speaking purely as a layman who's been able to make money flipping houses in Seattle, but has yet to see a way to sell a house or condo for a profit in Japan."

I felt it was only fair to point out to you, especially since you were saying that after 2005 had been one of the best years for residential real estate, that people had found ways to make money in that asset class even during the post bubble period. Here's what I wrote:

If you only based your judgements on 15 years of a trend then you would have been a rabid buyer of real estate in Japan in 1990, especially off-plan mansions, which wouldn't have been wise. And don't forget that as far as judging whether an asset is a good investment or not, some investors prefer income over capital gain which has been available in Tokyo at least for the last 7 or eight years.

Negative equity has been a feature of the post-bubble years but even then it hasn't been inevitable. It has been possible to buy land with a structure written down to zero which you nevertheless decide to live in. Some people have been astute enough to buy at auction and flip the property. No negative equity there. More commonly, though, this kind of purchase involves remodelling which does add to the total cost but is usually undertaken in order to earn a rent on the property. Most individual investors in real estate stick simply to trading in land rather than the structures which is more the province of the professional developers.

I have no idea on the likely future trend in land prices but I wouldn't have minded making 30% in Omotesando last year as one residential REIT was able to do. Certainly, as you say, if you buy a new mansion now and try to flip it you'll catch a cold but that is more to do with the structure of the real estate market rather than the value of real estate itself.

I'm not sure whether your sensibilities were more shaken by being corrected or by learning that others had seen ways to make money where you hadn't been able to. If it makes you feel any better, I'm happy to reconfirm that it wasn't me who locked in that 30% profit.

[Samurai_Jerk]

I'm sorry that my comment nearly five years ago upset you so much Catone but I notice that it has unbalanced you to the extent you have entirely misrepresented what I said.

You maintained: "...What has been the trend in land prices in Japan over the past 15 or so years?...I'm speaking purely as a layman who's been able to make money flipping houses in Seattle, but has yet to see a way to sell a house or condo for a profit in Japan."

I felt it was only fair to point out to you, especially since you were saying that after 2005 had been one of the best years for residential real estate, that people had found ways to make money in that asset class even during the post bubble period. Here's what I wrote:


I'm not sure whether your sensibilities were more shaken by being corrected or by learning that others had seen ways to make money where you hadn't been able to. If it makes you feel any better, I'm happy to reconfirm that it wasn't me who locked in that 30% profit.

- Catone.
- Pwned.

[Catoneinutica]

I'm sorry that my comment nearly five years ago upset you so much Catone but I notice that it has unbalanced you to the extent you have entirely misrepresented what I said.

You maintained: "...What has been the trend in land prices in Japan over the past 15 or so years?...I'm speaking purely as a layman who's been able to make money flipping houses in Seattle, but has yet to see a way to sell a house or condo for a profit in Japan."

I felt it was only fair to point out to you, especially since you were saying that after 2005 had been one of the best years for residential real estate, that people had found ways to make money in that asset class even during the post bubble period. Here's what I wrote:


I'm not sure whether your sensibilities were more shaken by being corrected or by learning that others had seen ways to make money where you hadn't been able to. If it makes you feel any better, I'm happy to reconfirm that it wasn't me who locked in that 30% profit.

I'm quite willing to be pwnd by Mulboyne if the pwnage is accompanied by enlightment. Chalk it up to my obtusity, there was none of the latter to be found in Mulboyne's above post. The 2006 exchange stuck with me because it was one of FGs Grand Non-sequitors. The thread in which your comment was posted was dedicated to the losses personal real estate owners are almost guaranteed to suffer in Japan (the Bubble Era was obviously an outlier). You then wrote that dosh about REITs, which to me suggested that your experience with Japanese real estate has perhaps been as a commercial investor, but never as a private owner. If I'm incorrect in this surmise, please disabuse me.

You made clear that you didn't reap that rich 30% harvest; I wish that you had, because you obviously are one of FGs great gentlemen. But if a particular REIT shows a gain in a particular year, I'd maintain that the correlation with a house or condo owner's rate of depreciation is weak indeed, if not nonexistent. I'm happy to be proven wrong.

[Greji]

I'm quite willing to be pwnd by Mulboyne if the pwnage is accompanied by enlightment.

I don't think I want any parts of this pissing match without at least a couple of mizuari's......

[Coligny]

I don't think I want any parts of this pissing match without at least a couple of mizuari's......

You said 'pissing' ? Hold it a minute guyz, I'll bring the filming crew...

[matsuki]

I don't think I want any parts of this pissing match without at least a couple of mizuari's......

How about beer?




Back on topic, I keep hearing all kinds of retarded stories regarding how shitty the insurance here is for property owners. Seems that no matter how much you try to cover your ass, it just gets more expensive and still loophole after loophole to what is covered...but considering recent events, wouldn't policy changes be in order? The feeling I got from most people that mentioned anything about earthquake insurance was that it was a cheaper and wiser alternative to invest that money into building an "earthquake-safe" structure. Not buying/building anything on reclaimed land seems pretty common sense at this point though, considering the shit we've seen after 3.11

[Yokohammer]

Not buying/building anything on reclaimed land seems pretty common sense at this point though, considering the shit we've seen after 3.11

Not building on any land that is or ever was less than about 10 km from the ocean is sounding pretty reasonable right now.

[Catoneinutica]

Not building on any land that is or ever was less than about 10 km from the ocean is sounding pretty reasonable right now.

And if you're looking at some land and happen to come across an old stone tablet inscribed with warnings from the ancients, get back into the car and drive on to the next lot.

When foreigners buy a house or condo in a place like, say, Ecuador, they usually do so knowing that the reason prices are so cheap is because the risk of political instability and/or criminal strife has been factored in by the market. Japan seems to offer the worst of all worlds: an almost certain chance of losing part of your investment, and a small but significant chance of losing all of it, without the compensation of third-world prices. And again, there's virtually no escape from the recourse mortgages that are the norm here. Absent some political act, for example, people in Tohoku whose houses are now washing up on California beaches are going to be on the hook for whatever loans they took out. Imagine living on a gym floor but still having to pay off your 5000-man-en mortgage.

And it's noteworthy that Aneha, the architect who designed the non-earthquake-standard-compliant condos sold by a developer with the comical name Huser recently got sentenced to a lengthy term (btw, whatever happened to the helicopter-owning president of Huser?). I'd be really curious to know how the cost of bringing the buildings into compliance was apportioned. The buyers shouldn't have been on the hook for anything, but doubtless got a good rogering nonetheless.

-catone
-if anyone has a hankerin' to pwn or piss on me, have at it

[Greji]

-if anyone has a hankerin' to pwn or piss on me, have at it

Sorry. Ain't gotta dawg in this fight.....

[Coligny]

Not building on any land that is or ever was less than about 10 km from the ocean is sounding pretty reasonable right now.

Dood... it's not the distance... it's the altitude...

I'm 12 km from the sea...

Maybe with some luck around 9m higher... I'm seriously planning to put a lifeboat on the roof...

[omae mona]

[Coligny]

[Catoneinutica]

Awesome... "we have this magnificient flaming turd, and just for you, we're ready to sell it to you for 50% of the list price..."

Heh. These bayside neighborhoods - Odaiba, Shin Urayasu, Kaihin Makuhari, and their ugly little sister Chiba Minato - are really the sine qua non of the plastic, scrap n' build housing culture here. Developers like Tokyo Tatemono (that would be Mitsubishi), Itochu, and Marubeni create these Potemkin villages of shiny happy condos where the streets are right-angled, everyone has a toy poodle, and there are none of the wrong kind of people (read: danchi dwellers). The developers set up those ubiquitous mansion showrooms with more staff per square meter than a five-star hotel. The more ambitious projects even feature Captain EO-style audiovisual presentations (we went to one once and walked out in the middle of it - the fuck?). The intent is to seduce salarymen's wives to pester their hubbies into signing up for a lifetime of debt servitude by making powerful appeals to the women's status-consciousness and "nesting" instincts.

-catone

-believe me, the hapless salarymen making the long walk at 11 PM from Kaihinmakurahi Station would be far better off if their wives had been seduced by, say, me.

[cstaylor]

The intent is to seduce salarymen's wives to pester their hubbies into signing up for a lifetime of debt servitude by making powerful appeals to the women's status-consciousness and "nesting" instincts.

I think this is one of many reasons why family finances should be shared, especially if the wife is relatively uneducated. I'm always shocked at how many people fail to understand the costs of borrowing money or even use a mortgage calculator.

[matsuki]

Captain EO-style audiovisual presentations

I'm only 30 and damn does that reference make me feel old

[Catoneinutica]

[Catoneinutica]

[Catoneinutica]

More liquefaction porn from The Tokyo Reporter:



http://www.tokyoreporter.com/2011/04/17/effects-of-soil-liquefaction-in-urayasu-following-great-east-japan-earthquake/

We rented a place in Makuhari Baytown from 2004-2007. The condo had been built in 2003, and had already about a quarter of its value by 2005 based on asking prices for comparable units (and no, it wasn't because I was breeding ferrets on the veranda by enclosing it with chicken wire. I thought about it, but it was too windy). Suppose it's worth, post quake, maybe a third of its 2003 price. To the people who bought it, and, really, to anyone who buys on reclaimed land: YOU'RE DUMBFUQUES. It doesn't take much to trigger liquefaction when there's a veneer of dry soil that's only two or three meters deep. And the smallest quake will have your unit reelin' and rollin' like the Tacoma Narrows Bridge. There was a quake in July 2005 that was really quite piddling, but it was enough to knock out the power and knock over a china cabinet in our unit. Imagine what a REAL Kanto quake will do.

[matsuki]

to anyone who buys on reclaimed land: YOU'RE DUMBFUQUES.

I know we're talking about liquefaction specifically but considering the predicted 10 years of after shocks and upcoming kanto "big one," isn't buying anything in this area kinda nuts?

[Coligny]

I know we're talking about liquefaction specifically but considering the predicted 10 years of after shocks and upcoming kanto "big one," isn't buying anything in this area kinda nuts?

unbuilt land... with a rv...
or anything buil to float will not mind soil liquefaction... (riverboat house)

[Samurai_Jerk]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20110419/sc_livescience/japanquakecausedsurprisinglyseveresoilcollapse

The scale of Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami wasn't the only thing that surprised geologists.

The 9.0 earthquake in Japan — the fourth most powerful quake ever recorded — also caused an unusually severe and widespread shift in soil through liquefaction, a new study suggests.

Near coastlines, harbors and rivers, earthquakes can make the wet, sandy soil jiggle, turning it temporarily from a solid to a liquid state, a process known as liquefaction. Heavy sand and rock sinks, while water and lighter sand bubble to the surface. The slurry spreads, often toward the water, and the surface shifts.

Japan's liquefaction occurred over hundreds of miles, surprising even experienced engineers who are accustomed to seeing disaster sites, including from the recent earthquakes in Chile and New Zealand.

Other areas vulnerable

The study raises questions about whether existing building codes in other vulnerable locations can enable structures to withstand massive liquefaction, including in areas of Oregon, Washington and California.

"We've seen localized examples of soil liquefaction as extreme as this before, but the distance and extent of damage in Japan were unusually severe," said Scott Ashford, a study team member from Oregon State University.

"Entire structures were tilted and sinking into the sediments, even while they remained intact," said Ashford, who is based in Corvallis, Ore. "The shifts in soil destroyed water, sewer and gas pipelines, crippling the utilities and infrastructure these communities need to function. We saw some places that sank as much as 4 feet," or 1.2 meters.

Long-lasting quake

The duration of the Japanese earthquake, about five minutes, could be the key to the severity of the liquefaction and may force researchers to reconsider the extent of liquefaction damage possible.

[Catoneinutica]

I know we're talking about liquefaction specifically but considering the predicted 10 years of after shocks and upcoming kanto "big one," isn't buying anything in this area kinda nuts?

Yeah, let's see: don't build on reclaimed land, in an area overdue for a Big One, or within, say, 50 or 100 km of a nuke facility. Doesn't leave much.

[Coligny]

Yeah, let's see: don't build on reclaimed land, in an area overdue for a Big One, or within, say, 50 or 100 km of a nuke facility. Doesn't leave much.

Cool... ya didn't say anything aboot inbred locals, bears or glaciers, so we can still move to Hokkaido...

[Greji]

Yeah, let's see: don't build on reclaimed land, in an area overdue for a Big One, or within, say, 50 or 100 km of a nuke facility. Doesn't leave much.

I take it that your good advice is based on the fact that you're using an upper story window for your genkan....

[Catoneinutica]

I take it that your good advice is based on the fact that you're using an upper story window for your genkan....

The original genkan cleaned up okay after I shoveled out all the flotsam and jetsam and dumped it in the neighbor's yard:

[Coligny]

The original genkan cleaned up okay after I shoveled out all the flotsam and jetsam and dumped it in the neighbor's yard:

That's your entrance ?

Fo' real ?

Would you adopt me as a pet ?

/would not publish any picture of my dwelling outside of urban ruin explorer circles... (with these guys it triggers envy...)

[Greji]

That's your entrance ?

Fo' real ?

Would you adopt me as a pet ?

/would not publish any picture of my dwelling outside of urban ruin explorer circles... (with these guys it triggers envy...)

That's the town house. Ask him for shots of their Karuizawa pad.....

[Catoneinutica]

That's the town house. Ask him for shots of their Karuizawa pad.....

Hey, it's shaped like a townhouse, but it does have windows on all four sides, even if they're three meters off the street. Here's a side view with the cleaned-up genkan on the left:



As for the Karuizawa millstone, good riddance:

http://www.fuckedgaijin.com/forums/showpost.php?p=199569&postcount=259

[Taro Toporific]

Heh. These bayside neighborhoods Shin Urayasu...

I was working a very well-paid gig on Saturdays in Shin-Urayasu in a business conference center (Oriental Land/Seibu/Disney affiliated) that is now closed because the water/toilets are cut off and the parking lot looks like the Mad Hatter's liqueFUCKED corduroy. Bummer.