North Korea to demonstrate nuclear status on the 9th?

[Alcazar]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/korea-timeline.htm
'September 9 is the 55th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. It is thought by some that the North Korean government might use this symbolic event to demonstrate a nuclear capability. A report by Reuters on July 26, 2003 seems to bolster this theory as an un-identified North Korean source stated that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test by Septmber 9, 2003 if the United States "continues its policy of pressure..." towards North Korea. At the Six Party Talks on August 28, 2003 various news reports indicated that the North Korean envoy had stated that North Korea was prepared to openly declare itself a nuclear power and to demonstrate such a capability through a nuclear test'.

Could happen. Imagine the reaction in Japan. Would it be underground or in true insane N-Korea style would they do an airburst somewhere over the ocean? Whole thing wouldn't be good for the mental health of 'Pana-Wave' members......

Is the whole situation going to end in this? http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5027.htm The way things are going it's getting closer every day....

[cstaylor]

I'm not sure what they have to gain by proving they have a weapon.

[AssKissinger]

I'm not sure what they have to gain by proving they have a weapon.

It proves that they can kill a lot of people. Crazy Kim up there wants to be a big world player and nukes do command respect. When someone has the power to wipe out a whole city (or all of humanity)with the push of a button they become a lot harder to ignore.

[Alcazar]

It proves that they can kill a lot of people. Crazy Kim up there wants to be a big world player and nukes do command respect. When someone has the power to wipe out a whole city (or all of humanity)with the push of a button they become a lot harder to ignore.

Good point. A nuclear armed North Korea hopes to use it's nuclear status as a deterrent against outside aggression. This is especially in mind to achieve the North's long standing goal of 'uniting' the South with the North.

A nuclear armed North Korea, armed with ballistic missiles, can use its nuclear leverage over nations such as Japan and the USA to prevent them intervening in a war on the Korean peninsula in the event of the North invading the South. The North knows that it would eventually lose a war on the peninsula after Allied (mainly US) reinforcements arrive and begin a counter-offensive. The North could however, win a war against South Korean forces alone. The North also knows this.

As a result, the North is pursuing nuclear weapons, as well as long range ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. Japan in already in range of existing N-Korean missiles and the US will be in range of a special multi-booster North Korean missile within a few years. Not to mention Europe and Australia.....

The North has already produced extensive stocks of chemical and biological weapons which it could use in any war (and attach to missiles to hit Japan). It also has a significant submarine force which it would hope to interdict any arriving reinforcements from allied nations, who need shipping to get the bulk of their heavy gear to the conflict. Troops can be flown in if it is safe.

So nuclear weapons are just another string in the North's bow.......pity they ran their nation into the ground in an effort to become this military juggernaut, what a waste.

[cstaylor]

I don't see what they have to gain by testing the weapon. It would disclose its capabilities to their enemies.

As for the North hitting the United States... don't you think that all nuclear forces in the region would then target North Korea? Any country that can launch nuclear weapons aboard a missile is a threat, even if they are a so-called "ally". Would China have so easily cut off oil to the North if Kim had proof of a nuclear arsenal? Futhermore, wouldn't it worry the Chinese and the Russians that Kim's forces could smuggle weapons across their border and detonate them without using missiles?

[Alcazar]

I don't see what they have to gain by testing the weapon. It would disclose its capabilities to their enemies.

But that is the goal. To deter the use of force against North Korea by demonstrating to opponents 'Look what we can do to you if you fight us'.

As for the North hitting the United States... don't you think that all nuclear forces in the region would then target North Korea?

Well yes, North Korea would be destroyed. But that is not the principle political value of nuclear weapons. They are unlikely to be used against another nations who has nuclear weapons because of the concept of 'mutually assured destruction'.

While in the event of a nuclear exchange between the North and the USA, the North would be destroyed, but the US could lose several cities-a price that is simply not worth the trouble for the US by intervening in a conventional war on the Korean peninsula. This is the nuclear leverage the North wishes to hold over the US and Japan in the event of a North Korean invasion of South Korea to prevent allied assistance to South Korea.

Any country that can launch nuclear weapons aboard a missile is a threat, even if they are a so-called "ally". Would China have so easily cut off oil to the North if Kim had proof of a nuclear arsenal? Futhermore, wouldn't it worry the Chinese and the Russians that Kim's forces could smuggle weapons across their border and detonate them without using missiles?

Yes, both China and Russia do not want North Korea to become a nuclear state. A nuclear armed North would result in a North Asian arms race, with South Korea and Japan becoming nuclear powers very quickly in an effort to balance the North's power. Both these nations are considered 'virtual' nuclear states presently, that is they both have capable civilian nuclear industries (nuclear power plants) which provide the raw material to make nuclear weapons.

And yes, the world does fear North Korean weapons proliferation. The North would sell nuclear weapons throughout the world to the highest bidder, including Al Qaeda. A nuclear North Korea would eventually mean nuclear attacks on Western cities.

[AssKissinger]

And yes, the world does fear North Korean weapons proliferation. The North would sell nuclear weapons throughout the world to the highest bidder, including Al Qaeda. A nuclear North Korea would eventually mean nuclear attacks on Western cities.

I agree with you Al, but what the hell can we do about it?

[Alcazar]

I agree with you Al, but what the hell can we do about it?

That is a good question because the options are pretty stark and time is running out.

1.) Continue appeasement.
Try to buy off the North with food aid and oil like the US did during the 1990s in the hope this will prevent the North from acting aggressively. This approach resulted in a big slap in the face last year when the North admitted in talks that they had lied and were still working on getting nuclear weapons while still receiving aid from abroad. Total betrayal which showed the North cannot be trusted. A losing strategy in the long term.

2.) Live with a nuclear North Korea.
Un-acceptable for all the said reasons.

3.) Blockade the North's sea and airspace in an international coalition to prevent the North weapons proliferation.
Training for this is happening right now. The North is furious about it and says a blockade would be an act of war.

4.) Pre-emptive strike on the North, attacking nuclear facilities from the air. Seriously being considered, with the US leaving this open as an option. Would potentially lead to an all-out war on the peninsula.

To learn more about the Korea problem, this is my favourite page on the crisis where you can look at detailed analysis, with maps, history, details of the military contingency plans etc.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/korea-crisis.htm

[cstaylor]

A nuclear North Korea would eventually mean nuclear attacks on Western cities.

Well, then it sounds like it's not MAD after all.

Perhaps Kim will understand the consequences after he publicly tests the bomb. Take Mao for example: before the Chinese had the bomb, Mao urged Stalin to nuke the western powers. Sometime in between that and testing their own weapon they realized it's not that simple.

See, once you've got it, and more importantly others know you have it, you've become a target, a yearly military exercise for all other nuclear countries. If Australia doesn't have one yet, you can guarantee they'll build one.

If the North launched missiles at the United States, they wouldn't live long enough to see the initial blasts on television; how many boomers do you think the U.S. has lurking in that area of the Pacific?

[Caustic Saint]

how many boomers do you think the U.S. has lurking in that area of the Pacific?

More than enough.

[Alcazar]

People are confused. When I say that a nuclear North Korea will eventually mean nuclear attacks on Western cities, it is because of the North selling nuclear weapons to terrorists. The terrorists will then attack Western cities with the nukes.

The whole point of North Korea having nukes with ballistic missiles is to keep American OUT of any war in Korea. To deter them from assisting the South with a nuclear threat. The end goal here is the invasion of South Korea, that has always been the objective for the North.

[AssKissinger]

Here's Jimmy Carter's take on the subject.

[Big Booger]

How many nukes can NK have? Surely not more than a handful. ONce he launches one, the US have the capabilities of totally destroying NK. It will be known as a nuclear wasteland.

I wonder what will happen if he does launch a nuke. Will the US respond by pounding him with nuclear weapons or will they try conventional bombs over a long period? I am thinking we have nuclear equipped subs just waiting for the order to fire and wipe out Lil Kim and his posse.

[Blah Pete]

I think Little Kim is bluffing since he didn't get any cash at the meeting in
Beijing last week.
But I am glad that I will be going back to Japan on the 8th just in case...

[Taro Toporific]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/korea-timeline.htm
'September 9 is the 55th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.....

N Korea has developed long range missile: Report
DeepikaGlobal.com / 8 Aug 2003.
SEOUL: North Korea has developed a long range missile capable of targeting all of Japan and the US territory of Guam, a South Korean newspaper reported Monday on the eve of the communist state's 55th anniversary that will be marked with a lavish military parade.

Chosun Ilbo, one of South Korea's leading newspapers, quoted an unidentified government official as saying that the ballistic missile, with a range of 3,000 km to 4,000 km, was developed last year but has not yet been deployed.

The missile's range makes it more powerful than the 2,500-km range Taepodong-1 missile that it test fired in 1998, which flew over Japan before falling into the Pacific Ocean. The North is believed to have an arsenal of up to 700 Rodong missiles, which can hit targets as far as 1,300 km away.

[Taro Toporific]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/korea-timeline.htm
'September 9 is the 55th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.....

N Korea has developed long range missile: Report
DeepikaGlobal.com / 8 Aug 2003..

N.Korea Holds Birthday Parade Without Missiles
Reuters, UK - Aug 9
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-il took the salute Tuesday at a parade to mark the country's 55th birthday but diplomats said the communist state did not display any new missiles or other military hardware.
... "No new missiles, only soldiers, no (military) hardware," said the diplomat, who asked not to be identified. "It was a pretty normal, run-of-the-mill parade as far as I could see. Nothing special."
... diplomatic sources in Pyongyang as saying there had been about 300-400 soldiers on parade there, but no equipment.
Defense analysts in Seoul had expected North Korea to wheel out a new ballistic missile as a gesture of defiance...[