Gov. Blinky Ishihara wants to buy the Senkaku Rocks

[cstaylor]

The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...

And how's that going for them now?

[matsuki]

The world needs to start standing up to China, and seeing Japan make even token efforts in this direction is a good start IMO.

THIS

...but the last thing Japan needs is such a hard shift to the right that it starts banning tattoos, ear piercing and any other hair color than black. It's hilarious how so many Japanese don't realize how military/hive mind they are(military backpacks for kids? same color hair/haircuts? line up by height? you are meaningless but the group is everything...is this Japan or North Korea?) and how they are just as easily mind controlled into nationalistic frenzy when the right buttons are pushed. TIJ, like everything else, they don't know the meanings or reasoning, don't dare question what is, just follow the herd

[FG Lurker]

What I'm saying is that the Japanese have a choice whether to escalate or not.

Yes and no. The choice is to let China walk over Japan again or to stand up to them. China has become quite the regional bully and it's not going to get better by continuously letting them have their way. It's also not going to get any easier to stand up to them in the future.

I prefer politicians that work in concert with others, not just stamp their feet and scream until they get their way. Large corporations have enough of those types already.

That only works if the other side is willing to work seriously towards a common goal, and/or is willing to compromise and give up something they would sooner not. It's ridiculous to have Osaka Prefecture, Osaka City, and a bunch of smaller cities all duplicating services and all paying crazy Mayoral (etc) salaries. It shouldn't take getting a Hashimoto in power to jump up and down to get action on that, it should have been pushed through from the national government years ago.

The point I was making was Toyotomi using the a foreign invasion to solidify his control of Japan. Like Napoleon, he cut off the route he himself took to power.

That's rather premature then since Hashimoto has no actual power in Japan at this time and quite possibly never will.

He will be if he takes Japan into a third world war. (where's that nuke icon when you need it)

That's also getting very far ahead of things. He's the mayor of Osaka, not even a member of the Diet. Ishihara has been making more noise and doing far crazier things (including being the main catalyst for the current problems I might add) for how many years now? It's really not an issue.

Can you name one war after WW2 where the losing belligerent was a nuclear state? I'm not talking about wars of attrition like Afghanistan or Vietnam. Yom Kippur was probably the closest. What do you think is going to happen if the gloves come off?

I would point towards India and Pakistan that are both nuclear states and who have thus far managed to not blow each other up despite some pretty intense hatred on both sides. Also, see Afghanistan vs Russia. Finally, the US didn't exactly "win" the Korean war either and could have nuked NK without fear of direct retaliation from China at that time.

Considering how close we are to Tokyo and that Yokosuka and Yokohama have military bases, I'd rather not get caught in the crossfire over these puny rocks.

You could always move to a better part of the country. Seriously though, China is not not going to nuke Japan.

[FG Lurker]

The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...

And how's that going for them now?

Not well, which is why they are currently focusing anger at an external target. As usual: Japan.

[cstaylor]

That's rather premature then since Hashimoto has no actual power in Japan at this time and quite possibly never will.

I'll drink to that.

[Coligny]

The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...

And how's that going for them now?

Can't tell for sure... but seems much better than Greece, Iceland, Spain, Portugal and on and on...

[matsuki]

The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...

And how's that going for them now?

Can't tell for sure... but seems much better than Greece, Iceland, Spain, Portugal and on and on...

...and Japan?

[cstaylor]

The only thing keeping China stable (inside) is their economical growth... which is due to their MASSIVE exportation... they lose that... they lose everything...

And how's that going for them now?

Can't tell for sure... but seems much better than Greece, Iceland, Spain, Portugal and on and on...

Um, based on what? China's self-published numbers?

[FG Lurker]

That's rather premature then since Hashimoto has no actual power in Japan at this time and quite possibly never will.

I'll drink to that.

Have some nice 25yo Scotch here I'd share a glass of.

No one wants war, it's bad for trade. China's just used to getting their way on everything and it's time they learned that isn't always going to be the way.

[Coligny]

No, because of the lack of constant social unrest...

[cstaylor]

No, because of the lack of constant social unrest...

Are you kidding?

[cstaylor]

Have some nice 25yo Scotch here I'd share a glass of.

xcode does look a lot better when I'm at least a little buzzed.

[Coligny]

No, because of the lack of constant social unrest...

Are you kidding?

And you ?

first line of your link:

Most protests are localized and deal with complaints about local issues and are directed at local officials, bosses or employers not Beijing or the system, and they do not present a threat to the Chinese government.

I think all european demonstrations, are against the head of their governement and response to the global economic crisis.

Chinese demonstrations seems to be aboot village quarrels... apple to oranges no ?

[cstaylor]

Chinese demonstrations seems to be aboot village quarrels... apple to oranges no ?

Considering the population of a Chinese village...

[cstaylor]

Okay, so here's the scenario:
- Coastal cutters go head-to-head around the Senkakus
- Japan sinks a Chinese military vessel
- In a "Remember the Maine!" moment, China invades the Ryukyu islands or sinks some Japanse shipping out of Kyuushu
- Massaging the meaning of Article 9, newly elected dictator-for-life Hashimoto launches a strike on Hainan, crippling the Chinese fleet at anchor there

At this point, the PLA knows that it only has subs, land based aircraft, and nuclear weapons as options. Outclassed by the combination of Japanese and American forces, it's either negotiate or go nuclear. A rapid first strike on the major population centers of Honshu would effectively end Japan as a country, and then America would have to decide whether adding to the misery by launching missiles against China would be a good idea.

In all scenarios I've read about, the treaty obligations are in place to prevent a surprise first strike; but here we have Japan as the initial aggressor.

If it comes to blows, I can't see how it would not go nuclear; maybe because I did too much Oxford-style debating in high school?

[FG Lurker]

Okay, so here's the scenario:

Endless possibilities. Such as: Things start to get out of hand so the US parks a carrier off the Senkakus and tells China to cool it. China freaks the hell out but realizes they're in over their head and backs down while muttering threats and going on about how Japan is a US puppet state.

In all scenarios I've read about, the treaty obligations are in place to prevent a surprise first strike; but here we have Japan as the initial aggressor.

How would Japan be the initial aggressor in the scenario you proposed? Japan controls the islands, there isn't much debate outside of China about who they belong to. If China makes a move on them Japan would be reacting to that, not making a first strike.

maybe because I did too much Oxford-style debating in high school?

Or perhaps your cultural background influences your thinking more than you realize.

[Screwed-down Hairdo]

CS,
I have delusional paranoia and I'm not even capable of devising a scenario like the one you've just come up with.
There is no way this will become a war, unless Japan decides to unleash a kamikaze attack and China must retaliate in defense. Though you can never be quite sure, I think the likelihood of that happening is extremely remote. While the Senkakus are perceived as vital to the interests of all parties involved, dispute over ownership will ultimately be resolved diplomatically, simply because none of them can afford the cost of going to war and East Asians value money over absolutely everything.
Nuclear? Absolutely unthinkable. China is not the Untied States. Even India, Pakistan or North Korea would show more restraint in using nuclear weapons than the Eew-S is capable of showing. Let's not forget that, apart from Britain and possibly Israel, a major factor in possessing nukes for most nuclear states is to have them act as a deterrent against the only cuntry to have ever used them in war.

[Coligny]

Okay, so here's the scenario:
- Coastal cutters go head-to-head around the Senkakus
- Japan sinks a Chinese military vessel
- In a "Remember the Maine!" moment, China invades the Ryukyu islands or sinks some Japanse shipping out of Kyuushu
- Massaging the meaning of Article 9, newly elected dictator-for-life Hashimoto launches a strike on Hainan, crippling the Chinese fleet at anchor there

At this point, the PLA knows that it only has subs, land based aircraft, and nuclear weapons as options. Outclassed by the combination of Japanese and American forces, it's either negotiate or go nuclear. A rapid first strike on the major population centers of Honshu would effectively end Japan as a country, and then America would have to decide whether adding to the misery by launching missiles against China would be a good idea.

In all scenarios I've read about, the treaty obligations are in place to prevent a surprise first strike; but here we have Japan as the initial aggressor.

If it comes to blows, I can't see how it would not go nuclear; maybe because I did too much Oxford-style debating in high school?

So... in fact... being Tom Clancy require a minimum amount of work and coherence...

[cstaylor]

China freaks the hell out but realizes they're in over their head and backs down while muttering threats and going on about how Japan is a US puppet state.

Have you been reading any of the rhetoric coming from the PLA? They're spoiling for a fight.

How would Japan be the initial aggressor in the scenario you proposed? Japan controls the islands, there isn't much debate outside of China about who they belong to. If China makes a move on them Japan would be reacting to that, not making a first strike.

In my scenario, Japan sinks a Chinese military vessel around the Senkakus, which for the Chinese is their waters. What the rest of the world thinks isn't really going to matter in that case.

The value of MAD is you don't launch a first strike because you'll be dealt with in kind. This would be the first actual test of America's nuclear umbrella: will America launch a retaliatory nuclear strike against a country that hasn't directly attacked it?

Or perhaps your cultural background influences your thinking more than you realize.

Oxford-style debate usually runs the premise that the opposing view leads to global nuclear war. It's a hold-over from the Cold War. I preferred LD style myself; Oxford requires too much detail and not enough real substance.

[cstaylor]

While the Senkakus are perceived as vital to the interests of all parties involved, dispute over ownership will ultimately be resolved diplomatically, simply because none of them can afford the cost of going to war and East Asians value money over absolutely everything.

It can and should be resolved diplomatically. Can you see that happening with a Abe/Hashimoto administration?

Edit: and we're talking about humans here, not econs. Wars have been fought over far less.

[cstaylor]

Now they're placing ads in the newspaper

[Russell]

Japan to crank up PR over Senkakus dispute with China

In a major shift in public relations policy, Foreign Minister Koichiro Genba said Wednesday that Japan has decided to seek international support in its dispute with China over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands.

The policy change is aimed at swaying international sentiment on the sovereignty conflict in the East China Sea, which is straining Japan's bilateral economic ties and other exchanges with China and Taiwan.

"Although Japan has refrained from sending a message to the international community based on its view that no territorial issue exists (with China over the Senkakus), I informed (the ministry) that we had better make a policy change," Genba told reporters in New York after attending U.N.-related events.

It is the first time Genba has explicitly mentioned a policy shift in promoting Japan's position on the territorial row, reflecting China's growing assertiveness in claiming the isles.

At a separate news conference after his U.N. General Assembly address, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Japan will continue to tell the world about its basic position on the tiny uninhabited islets, which are roughly 150 km away from both Taiwan, which calls them Tiaoyutai, and Ishigaki Island.

According to Foreign Ministry sources, Japan plans to mainly argue that the Senkakus are an integral part of Japanese territory historically and based on international law. It will also try to send out the message that the nationalization of three of the isles earlier this month was the best way to protect bilateral ties, while arguing that China has given tacit approval to anti-Japanese demonstrations that escalated tensions, the sources said.

The aim of the new PR policy is to counter China's argument that Japan, which has not reflected on its past militarism, has again invaded and occupied the islands, which it calls Diaoyu, the sources said.

Japan's diplomatic missions all over the world are preparing to post Japan's position online in various languages, they said, part of a campaign the government kicked off earlier this month by briefing diplomats from embassies in Tokyo.

Until recently, Japan had only explained its position as a response to China's statements on its claim to the isles.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura, meanwhile, said Thursday in Tokyo that Japan has no intention of using the International Court of Justice at The Hague to resolve the Senkakus issue.

"We don't feel the need to take it into the ICJ at all" as the Senkakus are an integral part of Japanese territory, Fujimura, the government's top spokesman, said at a regular press conference, echoing South Korea's stance on a separate island dispute.

Noda's government has been beset by territorial issues with China and South Korea in recent months, but Fujimura's remarks suggest that Japan will deal with each in a different manner.

In August, the Japanese government formally proposed to South Korea that the two countries jointly let the ICJ resolve their sovereignty dispute over a group of sparsely inhabited outcroppings roughly halfway between them, that are controlled by South Korea, which calls them Dokdo, but claimed by Japan, which calls them Takeshima.

[Tsuru]

Now they're placing ads in the newspaper

Oh god no! An ad. A two-page ad! In two newspapers!

We're dooooomed!



If you really think it's going to kick off over the Senkaku you need to get a grip. If anything serious were to happen China will at that moment have started off serious shit with all of the nations it has territorial disputes with, because they will know they are next. And they happen to be most of the countries on its borders or across its seas, which include other nuclear nations than just Japan and the USA. India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Pakistan, to name a few. So many people are pissed off at China in the reagion that if they start something, they have regional wars on all sides to deal with. And no matter how powerful you think China is, even they cannot be expected to deal with that and not suffer some kind of loss.

[matsuki]

In August, the Japanese government formally proposed to South Korea that the two countries jointly let the ICJ resolve their sovereignty dispute over a group of sparsely inhabited outcroppings roughly halfway between them, that are controlled by South Korea, which calls them Dokdo, but claimed by Japan, which calls them Takeshima.

That...that's actually fucking reasonable!

[FG Lurker]

In August, the Japanese government formally proposed to South Korea that the two countries jointly let the ICJ resolve their sovereignty dispute over a group of sparsely inhabited outcroppings roughly halfway between them, that are controlled by South Korea, which calls them Dokdo, but claimed by Japan, which calls them Takeshima.

That...that's actually fucking reasonable!

SK will never go for it, they know they'll lose. Same for China and the Senkakus. It certainly does make Japan look more reasonable though which I'm sure will drive the Koreans apeshit.

[Coligny]

Oh god no! An ad. A two-page ad! In two newspapers!

We're dooooomed!



If you really think it's going to kick off over the Senkaku you need to get a grip. If anything serious were to happen China will at that moment have started off serious shit with all of the nations it has territorial disputes with, because they will know they are next. And they happen to be most of the countries on its borders or across its seas, which include other nuclear nations than just Japan and the USA. India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Pakistan, to name a few. So many people are pissed off at China in the reagion that if they start something, they have regional wars on all sides to deal with. And no matter how powerful you think China is, even they cannot be expected to deal with that and not suffer some kind of loss.

I'm really not sur aboot Vietnamese nukular arsenal...

Unless they agree to be called Indochina again... Then they can have ours... of course...

[Tsuru]

I was certain someone was going to misinterpret that sentence, maybe I should have rephrased it but I already edited my post once too often by removing Russia. Apparently they resolved their differences regarding a few river islands, so they are not invited anymore.

So thanks for playing, please try again

[Coligny]

Could not resist pleasure to remind that we might have claims in ths neighbourghood too...

[cstaylor]

And no matter how powerful you think China is, even they cannot be expected to deal with that and not suffer some kind of loss.

That's not really the question. It's a matter of how powerful the PLA thinks it is. Military types of all stripes conveniently alter the facts to match their preconceived opinions.

Look, I don't think there will be nuclear war over some tiny rocks near Okinawa, but global conflicts have begun for less. Diplomats must know something more; why else are they keeling over when given the China gig?

[Coligny]

I always find it funny when people deem assassination of a foreign dignitary supposed next in line for the throne of a major empire to be merely pocket change...

NO THAT'S NOT A LITTLE BIT OF NOTHING... Even if it didn't had triggered WWI it would have been an history defining moment... so stop putting this in the same category as some random darky beaten to death by drunk cops...