What's up with the value of the YEN?

[Wage Slave]

Mixed here too. Liquid assets mostly not Yen. Illiquid assets mostly in Yen. Unless I'm selling up, a weaker Yen is better and an economy with a bit of growth is definitely better for income. So, happy to see the back of super strong yen here.

[matsuki]

Importing/distributing kaigai goods and taking in yen donations, I'm all kinds of screwed. Fuck you Abe!!

[IparryU]

I get paid in USD or GBP, so going along with Abe's plan is good for the near future... But this printing money gig is like heroin.

Sent from my SC-03E using Tapatalk 2

[IparryU]

If you want to read Kuroda's Osaka speech:
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2014/ko140916a.htm/

[matsuki]

110ish now.....fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck

[IparryU]

110ish now.....fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck

i really dont mind... i get my main source of income from dollar.

[yanpa]

Suits me just fine.

[matsuki]

Fucks up my imports...well, makes me raise pricing, which is a bitch in paper catalog oriented nippppon. Higher prices, less sales, more import taxing...I want to shove all 3 arrows up Abe's ass.

[Wage Slave]

Suits me just fine.

Swings and roundabouts to some extent but, given how the cash is likely to flow over the next five years or so - good news. I venture quite a few foreigners resident here are subsidising their stay via savings and income generated abroad. I certainly do/have done.

[Russell]

Japan: Apocalypse Now Or Apocalypse Later

Japan can’t do anything right.

That’s not a criticism, mind you, but rather an observation of how truly bad Japan’s options are right now. If you want a “risk free” trade for the remainder of this decade, it would be this: short the yen.

Let’s dig into the ugly details, starting with fiscal policy.

If Japan is to have a viable future, it needs to drastically reduce its annual budget deficits and national debt load—which, at 227% of GDP, is more than double the indebtedness of the United States. But any attempt to do so will take a wrecking ball to Japan’s fragile economy…and perversely cause the debt and deficit to expand rather than contract…thus pushing Japan closer to the edge.

Case in point: Japan raised its national sales tax in April from 5% to 8% in order to plug its budget deficit—which was a gargantuan7.6% of GDP last year—and its economy contracts at an annualized rate of 7.1%.

Japan is at least tentatively planning to raise the sales tax again next year, from 8% to 10%, though Prime Minister Abe may have second thoughts if Japan’s consumers continue to sit on their wallets.

How bad is Japan’s situation here? 43% of the Japanese government’s current spending is financed by debt sales…and 23% of that goes to meeting the interest payments on the existing debt load. And all of this is made possible by the low levels of Japanese bond yields. Japan’s 10-year bond yields a pitiful 0.58%; were Japan’s borrowing costs to rise to levels on par with those of the United States or Europe, debt service would completely overwhelm the budget. Even at current rates, if Japan were to literally cut all discretionary spending to zero, it would still run a budget deficit in order to pay its current interest and social security obligations.

So, Japan’s yields must, by necessity, stay low. Which brings me to the Bank of Japan and monetary policy.

Ben Bernanke fired his proverbial big bazooka when he unleased QE Infinity: bond purchases by the Fed of $85 billion per month for as long as Bernanke and his successors felt it necessary. (Current Fed Chair Janet Yellen will probably finish tapering Bernanke’s QE program next month.)

The Bank of Japan leaves the Fed in the shadows when it comes to quantitative easing. The BoJ buys ¥7 trillion—or $65 billion—of Japanese government bonds every month. But by IMF estimates, The American economy is nearly three and half times bigger than the Japanese economy. So, adjusting for the sizes of their respective economies, Japan’s QE program would be $222 billion in bond purchases per month

The Bank of Japan is the Japanese bond market now, and for all intents and purposes, the BoJ is directly financing the government.

If that is not enough, BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda promised “additional easing” earlier this week “should conditions emerge.” Perhaps Mr. Kuroda plans to use BoJ funds to buy every Japanese adult a new Lexus. Why not. He’s tried everything else.

Meanwhile, Japanese investors are fleeing the island as fast as they can in search of higher yields and more stable currencies. Outflows into foreign shares last month reached the highest levels since 2009.

Might it be possible for Japan, buoyed by a weaker yen, to simply grow out of its problems? Abe styles himself as a market reformer, as Japan’s equivalent to Margaret Thatcher or Ronald Reagan. Could the right mix of pro-growth reforms shake Japan out of its malaise and put it on proper footing?

Not a chance. I addressed Abenomics’ “third arrow” of tax cuts and market reforms back in June, noting that, while cutting taxes is a fine idea, it’s not likely to do much for Japanese business investment. Japan is already sitting on overcapacity and has some of the poorest returns on investment in the developed world.

But the biggest reason for my gloom towards Japan—and why I believe that no set of the “right” policies will help at this point—is Japan’s depressing demographic picture. Japan is the oldest country in the world with a quarter of its population already over the age of 65. Japan’s population peaked seven years ago at 128 million and hasn’t stopped shrinking since — Japan has about a million fewer citizens every year. By 2060, the Japanese government estimates that Japan’s population will have shrunk to 87 million people, and as much as 40% will be older than 65.

At the risk of being morbid, Japan is running up debts today that no one will be around to pay in another few decades. The yen’s recent decline to a six-year low against the dollar has been extreme though orderly. I don’t expect that to be the case for long. When the bond and currency markets finally lose confidence in Japan, I expect to see a total collapse in the value of the yen.

My recommendation? Buy the ProShares Ultra Short Yen (YCS) on any short-term rallies in the yen.

Be careful here; whenever the market goes into “risk off” mode and traders unwind their carry trades, the yen can enjoy massive short-term rallies. This is precisely what happened during the 2008 meltdown. So, be patient, and look for good entry points. This is a long-term macro trend that may take years to fully play out.

Link

Basically an advertisement, so I quote all...

[J.A.F.O]

114 as of today

[matsuki]

...but but, I thought this was all solved when Abe single-handedly brought the 2020 Olympics to Tokyo?

Srlsy though, anyone care to make any predictions as to when

When the bond and currency markets finally lose confidence in Japan, I expect to see a total collapse in the value of the yen.

The lack of patience and speed on information that keeps increasing has me guessing this will happen much sooner than most would predict...but I'm no analyst, just my humble opinion.

[wagyl]

Something I keep picking up on with this thread is the notion that it is JPY which changes value. Having absolutely no interest in the JPY-USD pair, I can't help feeling that over half of these movements are changes in the value of USD rather than changes in the value of JPY; that is to say that the USD is not a fixed value, and indeed it seems to be more often out of step with other currencies than indeed JPY is.

And as far as predicting movements in foreign exchange, tell me this: did you know yesterday what direction the rate would go today? I'm guessing with a massive level of confidence that your answer is "No." If that is the case, what makes you think that you can guess the direction for tomorrow?

[IparryU]

Something I keep picking up on with this thread is the notion that it is JPY which changes value. Having absolutely no interest in the JPY-USD pair, I can't help feeling that over half of these movements are changes in the value of USD rather than changes in the value of JPY; that is to say that the USD is not a fixed value, and indeed it seems to be more often out of step with other currencies than indeed JPY is.

And as far as predicting movements in foreign exchange, tell me this: did you know yesterday what direction the rate would go today? I'm guessing with a massive level of confidence that your answer is "No." If that is the case, what makes you think that you can guess the direction for tomorrow?

:sigh:
http://www.forexfactory.com/

monies done made!

GBP:JPY ~182
EUR:JPY ~143

[yanpa]

...but but, I thought this was all solved when Abe single-handedly brought the 2020 Olympics to Tokyo?

Srlsy though, anyone care to make any predictions as to when

When the bond and currency markets finally lose confidence in Japan, I expect to see a total collapse in the value of the yen.

The lack of patience and speed on information that keeps increasing has me guessing this will happen much sooner than most would predict...but I'm no analyst, just my humble opinion.

My prediction: it might happen, one day. My other prediction: pundits will continue to predict the total collapse of the yen juat as they have been doing for the last couple of decades.

[matsuki]

Something I keep picking up on with this thread is the notion that it is JPY which changes value. Having absolutely no interest in the JPY-USD pair, I can't help feeling that over half of these movements are changes in the value of USD rather than changes in the value of JPY; that is to say that the USD is not a fixed value, and indeed it seems to be more often out of step with other currencies than indeed JPY is.

And as far as predicting movements in foreign exchange, tell me this: did you know yesterday what direction the rate would go today? I'm guessing with a massive level of confidence that your answer is "No." If that is the case, what makes you think that you can guess the direction for tomorrow?

That's what we call gambling ...though theoretically, you shouldn't lose if you have some patience, good timing, and aren't too greedy.

[Samurai_Jerk]

...but but, I thought this was all solved when Abe single-handedly brought the 2020 Olympics to Tokyo?

Isn't a weaker yen something Japan, Inc. wants?

[matsuki]

...but but, I thought this was all solved when Abe single-handedly brought the 2020 Olympics to Tokyo?

Srlsy though, anyone care to make any predictions as to when

When the bond and currency markets finally lose confidence in Japan, I expect to see a total collapse in the value of the yen.

The lack of patience and speed on information that keeps increasing has me guessing this will happen much sooner than most would predict...but I'm no analyst, just my humble opinion.

My prediction: it might happen, one day. My other prediction: pundits will continue to predict the total collapse of the yen just as they have been doing for the last couple of decades.

Even if the yen doesn't collapse, how about the economy, quality of life, etc? It's not like Japan is bursting with natural resources or anything that can fill the giant holes that are being created right now.

[matsuki]

...but but, I thought this was all solved when Abe single-handedly brought the 2020 Olympics to Tokyo?

Isn't a weaker yen something Japan, Inc. wants?

Most definitely, cheaper Japanese stuff overseas makes their stuff more marketable...but is it a good thing for the average Taro Tanaka livign in Japan or the economy here when you consider how many things are imported to these islands?

[J.A.F.O]

Something I keep picking up on with this thread is the notion that it is JPY which changes value. Having absolutely no interest in the JPY-USD pair, I can't help feeling that over half of these movements are changes in the value of USD rather than changes in the value of JPY; that is to say that the USD is not a fixed value, and indeed it seems to be more often out of step with other currencies than indeed JPY is.

And as far as predicting movements in foreign exchange, tell me this: did you know yesterday what direction the rate would go today? I'm guessing with a massive level of confidence that your answer is "No." If that is the case, what makes you think that you can guess the direction for tomorrow?

Generally I think you're right about the fluctuating dollar. In this recent case I don't think it's the case because the gold and silver values based in dollars aren't changing as fast as the yen rate is dropping.

[wagyl]

theoretically, you shouldn't lose if you have some patience, good timing, and aren't too greedy.

Can you point out to me a gambler who doesn't believe that, whether he is a winner or a loser? Believing that your system is a sure winner if only you have the right timing, is the very first sign of the sickness, that you are hooked. How can you tell in advance that your timing is rightoctopus?

[yanpa]

theoretically, you shouldn't lose if you have some patience, good timing, and aren't too greedy.

Can you point out to me a gambler who doesn't believe that, whether he is a winner or a loser? Believing that your system is a sure winner if only you have the right timing, is the very first sign of the sickness, that you are hooked. How can you tell in advance that your timing is rightoctopus?

Aha, a new meme!

[wagyl]

Yes, I am on a campaign to reclaim rightoctopus from sites named dogging-in-helston-cornwall, adult-dating-in-amlwch-anglesey and singles-near-me-in-aberystwyth-ceredigion. Together, we can get FG to the top SEO for rightoctopus!

[matsuki]

theoretically, you shouldn't lose if you have some patience, good timing, and aren't too greedy.

Can you point out to me a gambler who doesn't believe that, whether he is a winner or a loser? Believing that your system is a sure winner if only you have the right timing, is the very first sign of the sickness, that you are hooked. How can you tell in advance that your timing is rightoctopus?

I said that meaning that, with enough time, you can come out on top...whether it's worth committing the funds and letting them sit there over time is another story but as you say, it's gambling nonetheless. Speaking of which, that pretty much is my gambling strategy...I've never hit any crazy jackpot but I always leave the Casino with some extra $$$ be it $10 or $1,000. Guess it's not so satisfying for some but like last month, I was totally cool with leaving Vegas with enough winnings for food and gas.

[wagyl]

theoretically, you shouldn't lose if you have some patience, good timing, and aren't too greedy.

Can you point out to me a gambler who doesn't believe that, whether he is a winner or a loser? Believing that your system is a sure winner if only you have the right timing, is the very first sign of the sickness, that you are hooked. How can you tell in advance that your timing is rightoctopus?

I said that meaning that, with enough time, you can come out on top...whether it's worth committing the funds and letting them sit there over time is another story but as you say, it's gambling nonetheless. Speaking of which, that pretty much is my gambling strategy...I've never hit any crazy jackpot but I always leave the Casino with some extra $$$ be it $10 or $1,000. Guess it's not so satisfying for some but like last month, I was totally cool with leaving Vegas with enough winnings for food and gas.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate, let me put my arm over your shoulder, and tell you, gently, that the only guys who come out on top are the guys running the joint. Your blood brothers certainly don't do it as a service to mankind, and when it comes to Vegas, someone is paying the bills for the conspicuous consumption of scarce water resources and electricity. So, you are telling me that your system makes you significantly luckier than the man in the street??? If so, I have a bridge I can sell you.

[Mike Oxlong]

theoretically, you shouldn't lose if you have some patience, good timing, and aren't too greedy.

Can you point out to me a gambler who doesn't believe that, whether he is a winner or a loser? Believing that your system is a sure winner if only you have the right timing, is the very first sign of the sickness, that you are hooked. How can you tell in advance that your timing is rightoctopus?

I said that meaning that, with enough time, you can come out on top...whether it's worth committing the funds and letting them sit there over time is another story but as you say, it's gambling nonetheless. Speaking of which, that pretty much is my gambling strategy...I've never hit any crazy jackpot but I always leave the Casino with some extra $$$ be it $10 or $1,000. Guess it's not so satisfying for some but like last month, I was totally cool with leaving Vegas with enough winnings for food and gas.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate, let me put my arm over your shoulder, and tell you, gently, that the only guys who come out on top are the guys running the joint. Your blood brothers certainly don't do it as a service to mankind, and when it comes to Vegas, someone is paying the bills for the conspicuous consumption of scarce water resources and electricity. So, you are telling me that your system makes you significantly luckier than the man in the street??? If so, I have a bridge I can sell you.

I think he should invest in my Arizona Bay waterfront property. With some patience and good timing, it's gonna be a winner!

[matsuki]

I'm no big gambler or anything like that but every time I someone I know loses, it's always the same story of "I was up $XXX but then lost it all and more!" I watched and watched and just saw the same pattern with most people. Next time I gambled, when I went up by a little ($200ish), I got up and went to do something else. Next day, the same thing. ($70ish) Last day I won $720...checked out, and pretty much had paid for my whole trip and then some. Next trip, the same type o deal. Every time I've gambled since, same method has put me on top. Obviously, there will come a time when I eventually lose it all but I'm fine with that since I'm not starting off with much and not the type to get emotional, run to the ATM, and pull out more cash to try to "win it all back!" Of course the house will always be the ultimate winner though, not saying I'm trying to get rich or have some secret strategy here...but it works for me. (and I have fun...that's the point, no?)

[wagyl]

As long as it is entertainment for you and the money you spend on it matches the joy it gives you, I am in no position to criticise. Personally, I have other ways to spend my money. Your comments, however, show every sign that you have succumbed to the sickness.

[matsuki]

As long as it is entertainment for you and the money you spend on it matches the joy it gives you, I am in no position to criticise. Personally, I have other ways to spend my money. Your comments, however, show every sign that you have succumbed to the sickness.

Let me put it this way, my motivation for going to Vegas isn't the gambling...and I could have a rad time there without it. It's more of a "fuck it, it's Vegas" type thing which usually ends up with me walking away to spend some of my winnings while friends/family stay in the Casino for hours.

[Samurai_Jerk]

As long as it is entertainment for you and the money you spend on it matches the joy it gives you, I am in no position to criticise. Personally, I have other ways to spend my money. Your comments, however, show every sign that you have succumbed to the sickness.

Let me put it this way, my motivation for going to Vegas isn't the gambling...and I could have a rad time there without it. It's more of a "fuck it, it's Vegas" type thing which usually ends up with me walking away to spend some of my winnings while friends/family stay in the Casino for hours.

The point is that if you think you have a system that works, you're delusional. You yourself said sometimes you walk away with $10 and sometimes it's $1000. How did you know to quit when you were ahead $10 the one time but wait till you'd made $1000 the other?