What's up with the value of the YEN?

[matsuki]

On the plus side Japan has a good record when it comes to quickly digging themselves out of a very deep economic hole provided they get the necessary minimum support to do the job.

You mean a lot of experience?

[Samurai_Jerk]

Japan posted its biggest trade surplus in over four years in February ...

TOKYO (AP) — Japan posted its biggest trade surplus in over four years in February, thanks to a strengthening in the yen and weak oil prices, though both imports and exports fell, suggesting persisting slack demand both in Japan and overseas.

Preliminary data reported Thursday showed exports fell 4 percent from a year earlier to 5.7 trillion yen ($50.5 billion) in February and imports dropped 14 percent to 5.46 trillion yen ($48.4 billion).

The resulting 242.8 billion yen ($2.2 billion) surplus compares with a deficit of 426 billion yen a year earlier and a deficit of 648.8 billion yen in January. It was the biggest surplus since September 2011.

[Wage Slave]

Japan posted its biggest trade surplus in over four years in February ...

TOKYO (AP) — Japan posted its biggest trade surplus in over four years in February, thanks to a strengthening in the yen and weak oil prices, though both imports and exports fell, suggesting persisting slack demand both in Japan and overseas.

Preliminary data reported Thursday showed exports fell 4 percent from a year earlier to 5.7 trillion yen ($50.5 billion) in February and imports dropped 14 percent to 5.46 trillion yen ($48.4 billion).

The resulting 242.8 billion yen ($2.2 billion) surplus compares with a deficit of 426 billion yen a year earlier and a deficit of 648.8 billion yen in January. It was the biggest surplus since September 2011.

Thanks to a strengthening in the yen? New economic theory perhaps? Or yet another journalist who knows nothing about economics but still happily reports.

[wagyl]

Exports down, imports down way more. Shrinking. In the right direction for certain statistics, but whether it is the right direction for the future economic health, is another issue.

[Wage Slave]

Indeed. And take out the effect of very low (and likely not long term) oil prices and even in relative terms it doesn't look so good.

[matsuki]

Exports down, imports down way more. Shrinking. In the right direction for certain statistics, but whether it is the right direction for the future economic health, is another issue.

No matter fuuuchaaa, onree nao!

[legion]

Exports down, imports down way more. Shrinking. In the right direction for certain statistics, but whether it is the right direction for the future economic health, is another issue.

Whatever happens with the Japanese numbers people find a way to put a slant on it, positive or negative depending on their agenda.

I think the real interesting situation is going to concern a less and less pliable youth, they know they are in demand and they are showing signs of running out of patience with the o-sans. I'm hoping they are going to learn to refuse to stay at the office til 10PM every night in meetings having circular discussions about irrelevant minutiae. Whether or not it would benefit the economy I have no idea but learning to say "It's 6PM, you don't pay overtime, get your scheduling sorted, goodnight" would make this a much sunnier place.

[dimwit]

Whatever happens with the Japanese numbers people find a way to put a slant on it...

Racist.

[kurogane]

Anyways, before the charges and counter charges start flying and things get nippy around here let me just note that that sentiment expressed by Legion was very agreeable. I agree it was a bit yellow of him to phrase it in such blatantly racist terms, but the heart of the message was lovely.

[Wage Slave]

It's a slippery slope.

[kurogane]

Ooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Yor Good. Yor Very Good

[canman]

Man, the yen is getting killed these past two days. It seems investors are ready to punish Japan for not pushing more QE. But for once I think this was the right move. I wonder how high the yen will climb though!

[wuchan]

Man, the yen is getting killed these past two days. It seems investors are ready to punish Japan for not pushing more QE. But for once I think this was the right move. I wonder how high the yen will climb though!

A few things are happening but the basic is the world is totally sick of JapnINC's bullshit. The QE steps of the BOJ only attempts to keep Japan where it is while the government hasn't taken any meaningful actions to fix the underlying problems with the economy. Instead Abe and friend are attempting to keep the old interests happy by giving them more money. Government funded programs like whaling, regulating what is and what is not "Japanese" food abroad, manga museums, unwanted useless construction projects, corporate welfare, and the fucking olympics are examples of how Japan manages to straight up waste money. These projects and many like them only benefit the top while the rest of the country has to pay for it through high taxes and pay increases. Japan wants to keep the yen artificially low so that they can keep exporting. A reason that Australia didn't choose Japan for the sub deal was Mitsubishi wanted to construct most of the subs here in Japan then assemble them in AUS where the rest of the bidders were OK with doing most of the work in AUS. Japan is unwilling to work with the rest of the world. It's our way or the highway. Meanwhile, the US government stopped caring years ago when J-companies stopped contributing to global growth and now it could care less if the J-economy destroys itself as long as the bases remain and wall st. is happy. Wall st. also gave up on Japan a very long time ago and now with all the accounting scandals they really don't give a shit. If the companies are willing to work with wall st. (Seven&I) then fine, we will invest but if the board doesn't listen to the investors the foreigners just dump and walk away because they know there is no point in investing in a company that isn't willing to change with the times (insert the god dammed fax machine here). And I guess that's the problem right there, Japan isn't willing to change. Earthquakes, tsunamis, financial meltdown, rampant corruption, loss of freedom, more work for less money and even a fucking nuclear disaster and there still has been little meaningful change. The Japanese people are so fucking afraid of being bread out by letting foreign companies and interests in that they are willing to let the economy die. Maybe they will be happy going back to the Edo era where most people didn't have enough food and lived in mud huts.


Sorry.... /rant

[Russell]

Sorry.... /rant

Actually, it makes a lot of sense...

[Yokohammer]

... Sorry.... /rant

Why apologise? I quite enjoyed that.

A reason that Australia didn't choose Japan for the sub deal was Mitsubishi wanted to construct most of the subs here in Japan then assemble them in AUS where the rest of the bidders were OK with doing most of the work in AUS. Japan is unwilling to work with the rest of the world. It's our way or the highway.

The assembly issue was another part of the problem, to be sure. But that general creeping realisation that Japan expects, nay demands, to be given free reign to do things their way without having to cooperate or compromise in any way is slowly but surely putting people off.

... And I guess that's the problem right there, Japan isn't willing to change. Earthquakes, tsunamis, financial meltdown, rampant corruption, loss of freedom, more work for less money and even a fucking nuclear disaster and there still has been little meaningful change. The Japanese people are so fucking afraid of being bread out by letting foreign companies and interests in that they are willing to let the economy die ...

Pride is a huge obstacle too. "We know what we're doing. We don't need any outside help." That attitude has caused serious large-scale problems in the past (the Fukushima nuke disaster comes to mind), and there's no good reason to believe that it won't happen again. As for the economy, count me among the very worried. I really don't know much about economics, but even I can see that this one is being held together with chewing gum and prayers. Fingers crossed.

[kurogane]

Sorry.... /rant

Actually, it makes a lot of sense...

So much so I want a hard copy of that. Could you Fax it to me?

Great rant, man. Seconded, passed.

[Takechanpoo]

it was only Abe and his henchmen who wanted the submarine deal.
mitsubishi, kawasaki and SDF guys and also most of j-netizens did NOT.
most of japanese dont trust aussie government, which is almost a china's whore, and had thought one of j-military secret, which is a pivot tech for j-defence against china, will leak via that blatantly pro-china government if japan got the deal.

[matsuki]

wuchan

Take...what exactly is Japan going to be protecting in a few years? Nuclear koshihikari?

[Yokohammer]

it was only Abe and his henchmen who wanted the submarine deal.
mitsubishi, kawasaki and SDF guys and also most of j-netizens did NOT.
most of japanese dont trust aussie government, which is almost a china's whore, and had thought one of j-military secret, which is a pivot tech for j-defence against china, will leak via that blatantly pro-china government if japan got the deal.

So everybody except Abe is happy then?

Suits me.

[Wage Slave]

Sorry.... /rant

Actually, it makes a lot of sense...

So much so I want a hard copy of that. Could you Fax it to me?

Great rant, man. Seconded, passed.

And yet, the Yen rises - And that means people are buying more Yen. If we think the transnational demand for Yen is flat at best or more likely declining then people must be buying Yen as a store of value or to invest in Japan. Somehow, and it is impossible to understand why, Japan and the Yen are seen as a safe haven in an uncertain world. Even though interest rates are so close to zero it doesn't matter, even though all that was said about the economy and Japanese companies is true money flows inwards to buy Yen.

[wuchan]

Sorry.... /rant

Actually, it makes a lot of sense...

So much so I want a hard copy of that. Could you Fax it to me?

Great rant, man. Seconded, passed.

And yet, the Yen rises - And that means people are buying more Yen. If we think the transnational demand for Yen is flat at best or more likely declining then people must be buying Yen as a store of value or to invest in Japan. Somehow, and it is impossible to understand why, Japan and the Yen are seen as a safe haven in an uncertain world. Even though interest rates are so close to zero it doesn't matter, even though all that was said about the economy and Japanese companies is true money flows inwards to buy Yen.

Forex isn't really a reflection of an economy, it's more like a commodity. In the case of the yen the market expects the Japanese economy to remain constant neither growing or shrinking much AKA constant equal supply and demand. The forex guys buy the yen when they are uncertain where the other major currencies are going to go. Since 1995 the yen has averaged between 110 and 120 to $1 about 80% of the time which gives the players in the market some kind of "confidence" that that's where it will end up in the end allowing them to not get fucked when other currencies tank. The pound has only lost value to the dollar over the same period.

[Wage Slave]

Since 1995 the yen has averaged between 110 and 120 to $1 about 80% of the time which gives the players in the market some kind of "confidence" that that's where it will end up in the end allowing them to not get fucked when other currencies tank. The pound has only lost value to the dollar over the same period.

Don't see it ...But that doesn't mean people don't believe it.

[wuchan]

Since 1995 the yen has averaged between 110 and 120 to $1 about 80% of the time which gives the players in the market some kind of "confidence" that that's where it will end up in the end allowing them to not get fucked when other currencies tank. The pound has only lost value to the dollar over the same period.

Don't see it ...But that doesn't mean people don't believe it.

Those two charts are a perfect example of why traders think the yen is safe. The yen is mostly between 100 and 130 excluding the five year gap between 2009 and 2014 while the pound is all over the place. Looking back, 2009 - 2014 was the Greek debt crisis and the entire forex market was scared that the euro may be done and over so they looked to what seemed mostly stable at the time. Traders didn't start selling the yen until the BOJ and Abe started trying to mess with the market. Today the euro is in question yet again with he possibility of the UK exit and traders are buying yen again.

The other problem is forex isn't really tied to anything real, it's total speculation and the market is based on news and rumors.

[Wage Slave]

The other problem is forex isn't really tied to anything real, it's total speculation and the market is based on news and rumors.

Now on that we are in complete agreement. None of it really makes the first bit of sense these days - if it ever did.

If the Yen is a relatively safe currency, and the definition of that is relative stability against the dollar, then why not just hold dollars? You might even get a bit of interest as well.

[kurogane]

And yet, the Yen rises - ........

I was so excited at the prospect of a cheaper yen I looked it up just after I posted above..........
The yen got slightly more expensive (in CAD) since I last looked..........coises, fooled by Wuchan again!!!!!!!!!
That was a great rant, mind. I think the mindset that Japan is a safer haven is still strong within them. The idea that it is dancing on a precipice of fiscal destruction seems to be limited to the Econ'ist and finance blogs, though you would think those would be required reading. Also, could there not be a Too Big to Fail assumption (which might not be unreasonable)?.

[legion]

It's the carry trade
Borrow yen at low interest
Invest abroad
Pay off low interest, take difference
Rinse and repeat

The financial sector is a fucking joke, sucking on the teat of the central banks and crying like babies when the central bank does something contrary to their current change my nappy position

Almost as blatant as the twat who ran BHS into the ground.

[Samurai_Jerk]

This country's not even in Europe, but may get walloped by Brexit anyhow

Tokyo, we have a problem.

Last week, market tumult stemming from the U.K.'s vote to quit the European Union drove the British pound to its weakest levels in three decades.

Yet it also sent investors flocking to traditional safe haven assets like the U.S. dollar, gold and the yen, the latter surging against every major currency as the results of Brexit became clear: Dollar/yen (: OSEJPY=)spiked from a Thursday high near 107 to a two-year low near 99. Meanwhile, the pound lost more than 8 percent against the yen (Exchange: JPYGBP=) and the euro (Exchange: EURJPY=) shed more than four percent to hit a three-and-a-half-year low.

The currency's strength was enough to prompt the Japanese government to hold an emergency meeting on Monday, Reuters reported, in order to craft a strategy to counteract yen strength. In currency market parlance, that suggests the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could intervene at any time to sell the very yen traders are trying to buy—something the central bank already does on a frequent basis.

Japan needs a weaker yen to boost the economy, but at least for the moment investors need a safe haven even more. So which impulse will win the tug of war?

[wagyl]

Some of that may be fallout from a generally weaker global economy forecast, although theoretically that should affect all currencies equally. I do know that the currencies of certain countries independent from the UK but sharing a head of state and which also foolishly still include UK symbolism which suggest a continuing colonial relationship with the UK in their national flags, are being battered more than the Yen. And these are precisely the countries which benefit from Farage's proposed (I hesitate to say "planned") Commonwealth trade.

[wagyl]

Hattip to Mulboyne: considering material costs of aluminium, it costs three yen to make each one yen coin. With the increase in cashless payments, coins in circulation are down and no new coins are currently being minted.

[canman]

Is this yen and stock market increase all because of Trump? I really can't understand what is driving this market. We keep hearing how dire the economy is with rising debt, higher taxes, and lower pensions and household spending.
Also, Trump has scuttled the TPP agreement, and the Russians have downplayed any hope of an agreement on the Northern islands.