Japanese economy - heating up apparently

[japslapper]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3789455.stm

Japan's economic growth forecasts have been revised upwards as the recovery gathers steam.
Bulging demand has pushed estimates to 6.1% for the full year, up from the previous estimate of 5.6%.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 1.5%, in real terms, in the first quarter up from the previous estimate of 1.4%.

Japan is the world's second biggest economy and now looks set to outstrip US growth of 4.4% annualised for the same period of January-March.

Is this true - or is this a lie - bitten by the BBC etc - which aims to get more investments into the country? I would have thought Japan was still on the way down and added to my own experience of Japanese officials massaging figures for the sake of some sort of pride thing.......

[Andocrates]

The rally is legitimate, all signs point to that. I think it's amazing how Japan kept their infrastructure intact for 12 long years. Because of that they are in a position to quickly grow.

The only potential snag is if China' economy stumbles. Right now Japanese goods are too expensive for the US market, it's China that is spurring growth.

[Buraku]

Japan might grow a little, but investors beware because it take a very long time to climb but will plummet much faster. Japan is near bust with its internal debts rising to above 100% of GDP ( the highest in the world )

for most of the time I didn't think muc of those Chinese in their red nation, a harsh system, ruled by a mad man Mao and it was a very backward place and poverty stricken nation

Times are changing fast and China has been going through a huge transformation, foreign press have been allowed inside the commie border, outsiders are welcomed to invest , free to put money around the China firms and companies
and the entire nation seems a little less militant.

China has been moving on, forgetting the past and going forward. While China has been forgeting about its commie past and cultural revolution
Japan on the other hand has taken two or three steps backward, we have the kanagawa governor who refers to foreign people as criminals, the SDF helping out in the ilegal occupation of iraq, Tokyo's blinky mayor who makes horrible remarks about women and calls Chinese animals and we have a 'must sing Banzai to the Emperor or else you get kicked out of school policy.

During the 70s and 80s it was only the Japanese economy that became the driving force in Asia, but after years of corruption, yakuza loansharks and an endless recession...

it is Thailand, China, S.Korea and other nations that appear to lead Asia in motor part manufacturing, processing, electionic chips, creation of electrical equipment....

Japan's days are numbered

Before the minor Asia nations were leeching and sucking from Japan, trying to get a little of the dosh

but now the tide has changed. The world's economic climate is changing, the USA is a great nation and had a wonderful economy but now Bush has made a balls of the US economy, causing thousands to be out of work since he came to office. Iraq hasn't been an easy ride, no WMDs and the dollar is weak and feble. There has also been other change in Europe, a re-drawing of nations, the introduction of the Euro : a strong and stable currency and 15 new nations joining a massive EU economy while now makes it look like a joining of states, it could be another superpower like China or the USA? Europe has changed since the cold war. It is the maybe the most stable region and possible become a rival to the others in this world, it has now become the world's number one economy.

Not long ago it was all the other Asian nations that leeached off Japan..

It is now Japan that sponges and leeches of its Asian brothers, its Asian neighbors have become the driving force of the Asian economy. The backbone, the economic tigers. These cats are making the trade in Asia and around the new world order. And now Japan behaves like a tick or insect on the back of a cat, the cat who does the hunting and works to catch the mouse.

Life as a tick or lice on the back of this Asian tiger can be good, however if the tabby cat gets sick..then the fleas and ticks die also. Japan is trying its best to sell its gimmicks and gadgets to its Asian neighbors. But it isn't creating new jobs, there are new new workforces, no jobs in Japan's computer industry, no new ideas. This is the road Japan has chosen, the life of a suckling.

Here's an example of what happend last thursday when the China tiger decided it might slow down and rest for a while. Japan freaked out and Tokyo stocks started to look like the Titanic


QUOTE:.
..

Tokyo stocks ended lower almost across the board Thursday following a volatile session, with worries over a possible interest rate hike in China spurring selling in the afternoon.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average plunged 215.29 points to close at 11,027.05, managing to finish above the key 11,000 line after falling to an intraday low of 10,963.56 late in the session. The broader Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 17.31 points to 1,119.56.

Wait till the Chinese start messin around putting on the brakes in certain industries for ther own benefit and Japan craps its pants with worry.

[Mulboyne]

I've noticed a few trends to be wary of when discussing Japan's recovery. There's always been the "This time it's different" camp who have been in play in one form or another since 1990 and are always trying to anticipate a v-shaped recovery.
More predominantly, there has been the "Japan is screwed forever" camp who seek to deny any good news because, ironically, "This is Japan".
Typically, we've been somewhere between these two extremes but that doesn't make for good headlines.
No matter how negative you are on Japan, though, you'd be a fool to ignore what China has done for the economy. So the numbers are right. Are they sustainable? I've no idea but I'm also pretty sure that nobody else can say for certain too.
Interesting stat:
In 1900, Britain was no.1 in the world rated by GDP/PerCapita. At the same time, in the stock market, the railway industry represented 49% of the total equity market capitalization. The single biggest company was larger than Vodafone is today.
If you knew then that Britain would fall to 11th place in GDP/PerCapita ranking and that the railway industry would be worth 0% by 2004, you might have been a bit nervous about putting your money in the UK market. But 1 pound invested then would (inflation adjusted) be worth 300 pounds today while a "safe" cash approach would have yielded only 3 pounds.
Although everyone would have you believe that macro views determine stock market returns, the evidence suggests otherwise. But in the short term , that doesn't stop people confusing the two because everyone thinks a rising stock market must mean a better economy while also believing that a better economy must mean a rising stock market.

So I know that China can be good for Japan' GDP without it meaning that the Nikkei doubles. Just as the Nikkei could easily double if China implodes. That helps me understand why macro numbers can get better while people don't notice.

[Captain Japan]

I've noticed a few trends to be wary of when discussing Japan's recovery. There's always been the "This time it's different" camp who have been in play in one form or another since 1990 and are always trying to anticipate a v-shaped recovery.
More predominantly, there has been the "Japan is screwed forever" camp who seek to deny any good news because, ironically, "This is Japan".

But I think these arguments are almost always talking about two different things. Economic recovery is one thing, but improving quality of life is another entirely. Often it is assumed they go together.

This bit of "recovery" might indeed be real (and it also could be short-term). But I also think it is at the expense of the worker. People just keep taking punches to the face so that the balance sheets look rosy. At my company our stock price has doubled in the past year. If anything, our industry has gotten worse over that time. But employee's salaries have been cut (as well as bonuses) and new secretaries are all temps which get cycled out every 6 months.

Young salarymen are quitting left and right. Seriously, one guy told me (mid 20s) that he was getting much less than 200k a month). Management is hopelessly oblivious that they are screwing over the company's future. One secretary told me she had a meeting with the big boss about a raise. He asked, "What are you going to do with more money?" Just completely oblivious.