Dollar expected to weaken after the election

[cstaylor]

Is It Time to Stem Asia Deficits With a Weak Dollar?

There is likely to be strong American pressure on much of Asia, not just China, to allow a major depreciation of the dollar. The details may be different depending on who wins the election, but the pressure will be there.

So, get ready to move your yen to dollars soon...

[Andocrates]

What does that mean? Will the yen go back to 119 or lower to 90?

[Taro Toporific]

W0oT!
Bring back the Bubble.
Let's parity! 100yen = $1.00

BTW: Here's the link to the NYTimes story without any depression-creating registration required: Is It Time to Stem Asia Deficits With a Weak Dollar?

October 22, 2004 00:59:00 AM ET
TOKYO (Reuters)
....In little over two weeks, the dollar has slid 3.7 percent against the yen and 3.3 percent versus the euro as simmering concerns about the trade deficit resurfaced in the aftermath of weak U.S. data. ...
....Alarmed by the steep rise in the yen, Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Friday his ministry would take any necessary action if the yen's value deviated from economic fundamentals.
Japan has not intervened in the currency market since mid-March when the yen was probing four-year highs against the dollar around 103.50 yen. Many traders think Tokyo could resume its intervention should the dollar fall to around 105 yen. ...

[Big Booger]

It's time to rid the world of the Dollar crutch. I want to start sending money home 100yen:$1 would be superb..

[Skankster]

-
-
I will believe it when I see it.

They seem to be able to control the currencies with the interest rate.
but to what extent they can control it I dont know.
Japan is keeping the yen relatively low with its low interest.

Most importantly they cannot control China...
even if the currency is pegged. I would sure like to see bush try to force china to lower the current value of the yuan. That would be the fight of the century.

Does the US have any leverage over japan? Can they make Japan raise its iterest rate?
They seem to have the US by the balls with the beef import ban.
They will lift it when it is politically convenient and quality checks are in place.
They will use this tactic rather than apply pressure regarding currencies.
It will produce immediate results in trade statistics.

So hang on to your Yen. The only thing that can hurt it -at this point- is the price of oil.

[cstaylor]

That's the entire point: if the yen makes a dip temporarily down to <100, that's a good time to move some money over, but you have to be quick, because the window can close pretty quickly.

As Steve B has said in the past, Japanese banks stick you pretty hard when you do an international transfer (like ~7000yen + 1 pt on the exchange rate).

[Skankster]

That's the entire point: if the yen makes a dip temporarily down to <100, that's a good time to move some money over, but you have to be quick, because the window can close pretty quickly.

As Steve B has said in the past, Japanese banks stick you pretty hard when you do an international transfer (like ~7000yen + 1 pt on the exchange rate).

Thats like gambling
there is a surcharge
and its risky speculation... not even worth the effort

[cstaylor]

Thats like gambling
there is a surcharge
and its risky speculation... not even worth the effort

Well, moving the money to the U.S. is a good idea anyways, because you can make some interest from the money there.

[Taro Toporific]

What does that mean? Will the yen go back to 119 or lower to 90?

Traders Turn More Bearish on Dollar, Survey ShowsOct. 25 (Bloomberg) --The dollar is likely to drop on concern that international investors are scaling back purchases of U.S. assets, according to a Bloomberg survey of currency traders and strategists.
Sixty-three percent of the people polled Oct. 22 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro, the most in five months. The survey also indicated the dollar will drop versus the yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.....
... as of 2:27 p.m. in Tokyo, according to EBS, an electronic foreign-exchange trading system. The dollar declined 1.7 percent versus the euro last week. The U.S. currency fell 1.9 percent against the yen last week to 107.26 and last traded at 106.81.
.... ``Policy makers outside the U.S. want to see their currencies appreciate because it offsets higher import costs of rising oil prices,'' said McMahon at ABN Amro, which said on Oct. 22 it may lower its dollar forecasts this week....
``The ducks are all lined up against the dollar,'' said ABN's McMahon.

[Skankster]

Well, moving the money to the U.S. is a good idea anyways, because you can make some interest from the money there.

I dont see interest as a way to earn money. U might want to try mutual funds.
I have had one stateside on companies that pay high dividends.
It has gone up 150% in two years Steady and Solid growth.

My buddies that have biz in the states say they cannot sell crap.
It is really looking bad.
Only in the next 4 years will they know how bad a presidend bush was.

[Mulboyne]

There are some very smart people who have lost a lot of money by getting the direction of the yen/dollar wrong. If you think you can guess it, then good luck but it will likely be mostly a gamble. In finance, you usually find out that the consensus view is the wrong view so a lot of people saying something is not a great indicator of a likely trend. I think that is what cstaylor was alluding to in his original post - but there are no guarantees out there.

[cstaylor]

There are some very smart people who have lost a lot of money by getting the direction of the yen/dollar wrong. If you think you can guess it, then good luck but it will likely be mostly a gamble. In finance, you usually find out that the consensus view is the wrong view so a lot of people saying something is not a great indicator of a likely trend. I think that is what cstaylor was alluding to in his original post - but there are no guarantees out there.

George Soros is not one of those people.

[Mulboyne]

George Soros is not one of those people.

I know you are only joking but, funnily enough, he is. His major coup was betting against sterling. One of the best investment decisions ever made. But he got the yen/dollar wrong in 1998. As did virtually all the major macro hedge funds.
George Soros Independent News Site

Last year the story was that the Soros' funds were hit like Robertson's [Tiger] by the collapse of the yen carry trade - borrowing cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding dollar-denominated securities - great business as long as you know which way the yen is going to move.

[Buraku]

Obama says: Boosting the U.S. economy best way to aid dollar

McCain says : He backs a strong dollar policy and proposes federal gas-tax holiday

One thing that is different from 2000 and 2008

M3 monetary aggregate information is now blocked by Bernanke and the Fed Reserve. M3, the one that will no longer be printed, is the M2 numbers plus Eurodollars. While Eurodollars sounds like some kind of funny children's money used at EuroDisney, it actually refers to dollars being held in non-American banks (originally most dollars held overseas were in European banks, but "eurodollars" could just as easily be held in China). The move to censor M3 numbers was happening at the same time nations like Iran and Venuzuela made threats to sell with the Yen or the Euro for its sales of oil.