Japan misses recession by a whisker
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=2339209
December 9, 2004
Tokyo - Japan just missed falling into recession after revised third-quarter figures yesterday showed lower-than-expected growth of 0.1 percent. The government insisted the economy faced only a temporary slowdown.
The cabinet office said gross domestic product growth of 0.1 percent in the three months to September gave an annualised gain of 0.2 percent under a new methodology, compared with preliminary data of 0.1 percent growth quarter on quarter and an annualised gain of 0.3 percent.
Analysts had been expecting the revised figures to show a gain of between 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent on the quarter, and between 1.2 percent and 1.8 percent annualised, especially in view of strong corporate capital spending figures announced last week.
The cabinet office also said that under the new system of compiling the data, the economy had actually contracted 0.1 percent in the April to June quarter after expanding 1.7 percent in the January to March quarter.
A recession is broadly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, meaning Japan's economy just scraped by and came very close to a halt in the third quarter.
A key factor in the poor performance was private consumption, which was much weaker than expected, increasing only 0.2 percent in the third quarter, down from the 0.9 percent rise reported in the original estimate.
Economy and fiscal minister Heizo Takenaka <liar>said that even though an improved labour market had helped cheer consumer sentiment, it had not made a major change to disposable income for the average Japanese.
"I maintain the view that Japan's economy remains in a minor adjustment phase in an upward climb and we will monitor developments carefully," he said. <lies>
Ill say it again. Growths in employment will not affect consumer spending in Japan because nobody gets a bonus anymore --contract employees -- to afford high priced items.
Unless Koizumi and Bush can control themselves there wont be much high priced consumption anywhere in the world.